Here’s people looking for only fantasy baseball prospects with 70 or higher grades when they see Brandon Lowe: *eyes bug out, let out a long-winded pfft and turn the page to something else* Well, joke’s on you, there’s no page to turn to, you’re reading this on a computer screen, doofus! To the rest of you who are still here and not concerned with a guy being labeled ‘big-time prospect,’ make yourself at home, because we’re talking about guys who can actually help you for 2019 fantasy baseball and not in seven years when you’re even more bald. One quick side note (as if the rest of this was on topic), don’t tell Prospector Mike but Rudy and I were talking recently and the gist of the conversation was, “Is it me or does it seem like for every prospect that breaks out seventeen of them you need to wait on?” “Lucas Giolito.” “Yup.” “Member when people were excited about Scooter Gennett four years before he was good?” “You made that point already.” “How about Luis Castillo?” “Same point again.” “Tyler White was an overlooked 33rd round prospect!” “Please stop with the same point.” “Don’t worry, Rudy, this is simply a conversation that won’t ever see the light of day on the site, so I can make the same points repeatedly.” As you can see, we’re jaded, ya’ll! I love the rookie nookie hype, but Brandon Lowe or Bo Bichette for just 2019? If you were to just look at their prospect grades, you would think it was clear cut for Bichette. Anyway, what we can expect from Brandon Lowe for 2019 fantasy baseball?
Last year, Brandon Lowe came into his own in Triple-A banging out 14 homers in only 205 PAs. We haven’t seen 205 PAs since James Cameron’s last film. Lowe continued to stream big torrent of a power in the majors, hitting six homers in 129 ABs. Yo, Lowe, you 30-homer hitter? Nah, he looks like a 379-foot home run hitter. His HR/FB% was high last year (25% in AAA and 18.8% in majors) for him. Methinks at least, as I speak like a leprechaun. He looks more like a 18-24 homer hitter. He’s also a lefty, and a team like the Rays cannot help themselves from benching him vs. lefties. Might be for the best since his splits suggest it in the majors, though he hit .270 vs. lefties in Triple-A last year and .301 vs. lefties the previous year. Hard to say, but I can’t imagine the Rays just play him 100% of the time. He might need Kevin Kiermaier to get injured, so Tommy Pham can move to center and Lowe can play left before Lowe even sees the light of day (not the film starring Micheal J. Fox in his dynamic, dramatic star turn). Thankfully, Kiermaier injured himself once telling a trainer, “No, I’m not injured.” Also, Lowe has flexibility to play in the infield and outfield. For 2019, I’ll give Brandon Lowe the projections of 42/18/57/.254/5 in 412 ABs with a chance for more. Brandon Lowe feels like a guy who will be very helpful in AL-Only leagues and very deep mixed leagues while bouncing on and off waivers all year in shallower mixed leagues, whether that’s warranted or not. Listen (you), Mallex Smith bounced on and off waivers for the better part of the year in shallower leagues, so it’s no knock on Lowe. “Knock, knock.” “Who’s there?” “I saw no reason to knock on Lowe, so I knocked on the door.” “Okay, I don’t who that is so I’m not opening the door.”
I picked this guy up for a trial run when he first came up last season, i think it was in August.
Anywho, and that’s me quoting Grey, I held him on my roster for 3 weeks, maybe 3 1/2 weeks or so. At a certain point he was like 6 for 40 and doing absolutely nothing. I mean he was freaking awful. So, of course, I cut him. And, you guessed it, the day I do he freaking starts hitting like he’s Tony Gwynn’s long lost son.
So now I can’t stand the guy and I hope he fails miserably. Yes, I’m jaded, bitter and angry. This game has been very cruel to me for some reason. Maybe I was a prostitute or pimp in my previous life and this is my payback.
Haha, nice
Speaking of Lowe points on my roster.
Domingo Santana on a 2yr contract #I’ll never forget.
And Ohtani on a 4yr contract #Scosiopathic
Great writeup as usual!
Thanks! There’s a new post for followups
Hey Mr. Grey,
Any thoughts yet on Kikuchi? I’m hearing # 3 pitcher; doesn’t strike out a ton; gets injured; 27 years old. Will he be a bust?
Thanks for the insights!
I like him, but once he signs we’ll know more and I’ll go over him… I’d guess a fantasy #3-4 with a chance to be a #2
@Grey: I went nuts with my dynasty team… I won it all last year and made this trade today. 16 team, 5×5, rbi,avg, r, obp, nsb and qs, whip, era, net saves and holds…
Royce Lewis, Kikuchi and A. Faedo for Aaron Nola…
Which side do you like?
Nola — There’s a new post for followups
The Rays DFA’s CJ Cron?!? How did I miss this? I assume we’ll get a report soon on his outlook for the Twins?
Yeah, I saw that, crazy how much no one likes Cron
You and Rudy just discovered the super secret to writing about prospects!
Step 1) Find a handful of guys to hang your hat on outside the top 50ish.
2) Hope that one of them hits.
3) a. If yes, remind.
b. If no…hell, no one will remember in three years anyway!
Haha — That sounds like the secret to writing about fantasy baseball in general!
I told everyone to draft Blake Snell last year!!!
Wait, didn’t you tell us to draft Cody Bellinger in the top 20 overall?
Shut up about that will you, we’re talking about Blake Snell now!
hehe truth
Keep it between us!
Currently in a 50 man draft and hold 15 team. Since its a 750 player draft, with standard rosters (2 catchers, 14 starters 9 pitchers) I was thinking of entirely punting catchers. I’ve already done 2 $150s, and currently am in one and watched Zunino, Castillo, Hedges come off teh board right before me.
Here is my thought process on it: Most people are drafting 4 catchers out of 50 players. I could use those 4 picks to grab some high upside later round sleepers/extra rp/sp. Figure between all the catchers in a weekly league I am only missing out on 20-30 hrs, 3sbs and taking a hit in batting average. Does this make sense? Entirely punting catchers in a draft only league ?
It doesn’t, don’t punt catchers entirely… You want to have at least 3 catchers, preferably 4… They don’t have to be good, but if it’s the choice between some random middle reliever in the 40th round or a catcher, take a catcher if you need one…
Also, I’m at -10 for auction budget but with my cheaper keepers and with winning the championship I feel like it balances out decently.
Your keepers are great
Great work my man, long time follower who just wants to thank you for all you do and ask for some possible keeper advice. I won my 12 team h2h cats league with obp and qs as two of the categories, I can keep up to 9, with contracts ranging to a max of 4 years, which go up 3 dollars per year. So you have your base price plus 3 dollars for one year, up to 4 years.
These are what I’m thinking and my options, any input would be appreciated:
Trout 2 more years at 50/yr
Arenado 2 more years at 32/yr
Bregman 2 more years at 10/yr
Acuna, no contract yet, base price would be 7, so thinking 4 years at 19/yr
Soto, same as acuna, thinking 4 at 19/yr
Springer, 1 more year at 20/yr, thinking of selling him because of my influx of young OF
Albies, no contract year, base price is 8, thining maybe 3 or 4 years? What do you think?
Mondesi, this is the real question, he’s 7 and not on contract, thinking of maybe doing 3 years at 16 or should i just go all out at 4 years? He’s risky but I feel like I have a lot of solid guys to balance it out.
Buehler, no contract yet, he’s at 7, thinking 2 or 3 years?
Taillon, no contract yet, but he’s at 13, thinking 1 year?
Also, glasnow is also at 7 but I think I can get him back in the draft, and I have luis castillo for one more year at 13/yr which I will probably have to cut and eat the 4 dollars.
What would you do in this situation? Thanks for the help and as always, keep up the good work.
Thanks! So you’re think the 1st 9? Up to and including Buehler? That makes sense — Acuna and Soto — 4 years each; Albies – 4 years; Mondesi — 4 years
@Grey: Was thinking of selling springer for anywhere from 4-6 to recoup some of my auction dollars going in and keeping taillon. Pitching is super inflated in this league, but I won last year just by drafting guys like taillon, corbin and manaea and there will be a ton of a pitching in the auction, but less bats. I also think we saw a taillon breakout in the second half and he will be nola-like this next year.
I like Taillon a lot, can see maybe selling Springer, but it’s not easy to say without seeing your team laid out like this:
1B:
2B:
Etc
For instance, I don’t even know how many OFs your league uses — 3? 5?
@Grey: Oh sorry, that would be helpful. 3 OF, 2 util, no mi or ci
So would be looking at something like this with selling springer:
c
1b
2b albies on 4 year @ 20/yr
3b arenado 2 yr @ 32/yr
ss mondesi 4 year @ 19/yr
OF Trout 2 @ 50/yr
OF Acuna 4 @ 19/yr
OF Soto 4 @ 19/yr
Util Bregman 2 yrs @ 10/yr
Util
P Buehler 2 or 3 years at 13 or 16
P Taillon 1 or 2 yrs at 16 or 19
Yeah, you should be selling Springer, it’s more obvious now that you’ve laid it out like this
Fantastic write up sir. It reminds me of that Megadeath video from the 90’s from inside the asylum where he sings “Hello me, meet the real me”… and so it goes.
Thanks for reminding me of Lowe’s merits. I am not above drafting B. Lowe as, apparently, are some of your colleagues. They likely would have been above drafting a catcher taken in the 62nd round of the entry draft in 1988. That is, if they were out of their diapers yet. That same scrub was surely the most dominant offensive fantasy player at his position during my first year of online fantasy baseball in 1997 (can you say sandbox.com anyone?). Anyhow, I may be old, but I am not senile and still younger than Mike Piazza.
Ok, well I think I made my point, or did I?
I am with you, Grey, on down Lowe. Ok, ok.
Thanks! Haha, nice analogy! Sandbox.com! I worked for a guy who used to work for them, then heroin happened (to him) and I don’t know where the story went, but I’m scared to Google his name…
@Grey:
Yeah, there really seem to have been a lot more players back then who were dynamic statistically. I don’t believe that can be reduced to ‘roids either (Gwynn, Rickey, Biggio). It seems like there were more perennially great players. Back then Randy Johnson in round 1 made more sense because he was so dominant and batting stats were deeper. Drafting Ken Griffey Jr in round one made sense but the teams that won usually had someone named Randy, Pedro, Roger or Greg. It’s totally changed. It seems to me at least. Some of it is the league but some is just the unique nature of the players at that time.
Yeah, agreed, I think it has changed, I can remember owning guys like Pedro and Randy, but you’d also have guys like Sosa or whatever ‘roided out monster was around to back fill your offense…
Grey!!!
Nice write-up and great knock-knock joke!
a. I had Brandon Lowe off and on this year and he was pretty good when he was on. His infield flexibility as you say helps. He’ll be on waivers again at the start of the season in most leagues but you never know there may be another Brandon Lowe-type on waivers again.
b. Mark Twain quote of the day for November 26
1. The face of the water in time became a wonderful book. A book that was a dead language to the uneducated passenger but which told its mind to me without reserve, delivering its most cherished secrets as clearly as if it uttered them with a voice. For it was not a book to be read once and thrown aside for it had a new story to tell every day. Throughout the long 1200 miles there was never a page that was void of interest, never one that you could leave unread and lost, never one that you would want to skip, thinking you could find higher enjoyment in some other thing. In truth, the passenger who could not read this book saw nothing but all manner of pretty pictures in it, painted by the sun and shaded by the clouds. Whereas to the trained eye, these were not pictures at all. But the grimmest and dead earnest reading material of all.
2. Memphis, Tennessee. Friday June 18, 1858
The horrors of three days have swept over me. They have blasted my youth and left me an old man before my time. For 48 hours, I labored at the bed side of my poor, burned and bruised but uncomplaining brother. Long before this reaches you, my poor Henry will have finished his blameless career and the light of my life will have gone out in utter darkness.
3. A pilot in those days was the only unfettered and entirely independent human being that lived in the earth. His movements were free, he consulted no one, he received commands from nobody. So here was the novelty of a king without a keeper, an absolute monarch who was absolute in sober truth and not by a fiction of words.
Cheers,
Ante
Thanks! A. Yeah, likely be the same for 2019 in shallower leagues… B. Happy Monday! These are dark!
@Grey: Grey!!
a. Sorry for the darkness. Twain blamed himself for all the sorrow that happened around him. Like luring his brother into be a steamboat captain and not being there to save him. Although, without sorrow there is no joy. That’s Twainish.
b. Also found out what a mark twain is – the distance of exactly 2 fathoms or the depth necessary for free sailing of a steam boat without any obstructions.
c. Happy Monday!
Cheers,
Ante
A. That’s a positive on the sadness, I guess… Geez, bummer, Twain!
B. That’s pretty cool, I like trivia
C. Yeah!