Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Over in the Paul DeJong sleeper, I went over different types of sleepers.  There was the the sleeper who– Actually, just go there and read the categories I laid out like your mother lays out your clothes.  Are you back?  Good.  Okay, Ben Gamel doesn’t fit into any of those categories.  He’s in the category of “Who the eff is Ben Gamel?”  Just on the Mariners alone, I could say Ryon Healy is a sleeper, and some people might agree.  Mitch Haniger has been a sleeper for about three years.  Maybe some would even consider Mike Zunino a sleeper.  Ben Gamel though?  He’s not going to be drafted even in deep mixed leagues.  He’s a sleeper who fantasy baseball ‘perts won’t even talk about, but if you mention him they’ll be like, “Oh, yeah, he’s a good sleeper.”  So, why not talk about him?  “Because no one is going to talk about him.”  That’s right, most fantasy baseball ‘perts judge their sleepers on how much they are not sleepers.  Why is this?  Not sure, ask them.  Ben Gamel is around that of a $2 play in AL-Only leagues.  He’s the Rip Van Winkle of sleepers.  He’s such a sleeper I guarantee you there will be people asking me in the comments as late as June if they should pick him up.  He’s the kind of guy that can win super deep leagues with a very late round pick.  If you only play in shallower mixed leagues, go check out my Paul DeJong sleeper.  If you want a deep league flyer… So, what can we expect from Ben Gamel for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Aaron Judge and Alex Bregman sit on both sides of Ben Gamel for line drive rate.  For ground balls, Gamel sits between Maikel Franco and Domingo Santana.  For fly balls, he sits between OZUNA and Corey Seager.  For medium contact, Gamel is top ten in the league.  This is for players under the age of 27 last year.  Don’t @ me with players 27 or older.  I’m looking for people who are peaking or have no peaked yet.  Not peaked as in person of gaunt color.  Though, if we’re talking a person looking sick, and sick as in good, then fine.  In the 2nd half, Gamel hit seven homers while hitting .227.  Outside of Marla Gibbs, nobody likes that, but his BABIP was low for him.  In the 1st half, his BABIP was obscenely high (.422) which led to his .323 average.  I’d split the two for him, and say a .270 average with a .330 BABIP.  One thing that really sticks out to me is his pull percentage.  From the 1st half of 32.6% to 35.8% in the 2nd, his HR/FB% went from 6.1% to 10.9.  Watching tape on him, he does not have opposite field power (his home run spray chart backs this up).  Gamel needs to pull the ball to home run, but in the 2nd half he was doing exactly that.  Couple a pull approach with an improved 2nd half BABIP and Gamel becomes appealing.  Last year in 134 games, he would’ve had 14 homers.  A year maturation under his belt and he can easily touch 17 HRs.  Finally, throw in the steals.  In Triple-A, he stole 19 bags in 116 games.  Last year, only four steals and one time caught.  At 25 years old, there’s no reason to think he can’t steal 15 bags, and if everything breaks right for him, he moves to the two hole, which is where he better profiles.  Sure, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all be diabetic squirrels, but for the price Gamel is coming at — which is next to nothing — there’s reason here to be enthusiastic.  For 2018, I’ll give Ben Gamel the projections of 71/17/61/.271/15 in 564 ABs.

   
  1. Nitro says:
    (link)

    I am sorry if I missed discussion on this, but Grey, have you watched “Legion”? Just watched the 1st episode. Wonder what you think.
    Happy New Year Grey, thanks for all of the great content amd humor this year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I watched one episode and I couldn’t get into it, and stopped watching it… One show where I have no idea what’s going on is enough for me, and that category is currently filled by Mr. Robot… Happy New Year!

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Have you seen that Mr. Robot dude’s movie, Buster’s Mal Heart?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nah, any good?

          • Cram It says:
            (link)

            @Grey: It was different. One of those layered thinkers that isn’t always coherent. But the main guy was awesome, having never seen Mr. Robot. It’s worth a watch.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, I loved the first season of Mr. Robot, then diminishing returns on 2nd and 3rd season, but not bad… just massively confusing at times…

  2. Willy Mo says:
    (link)

    Yeah the term sleeper is used pretty loosely. A lot of people would consider Gamel a deep sleeper, and not just becasue he always hits REM… Come to think of it, how come there are no shallow sleepers? And I don’t mean people who dream about judging others by what they are wearing.

    Another deep sleeper I’ve been thinking about is Dom Smith. Hopefully the Mets won’t make any moves to bring in a first basemen and I don’t think they will. Smith had a .220 BABIP last year in 167 at bats vs a career .344 BABIP in the minors. Not saing his BABIP will be .344 in the bigs but we should see big time improvement in Smiths batting average this year. He also had 9 homers in those 167 at bats. Smith started to come on with improving hard contact % in his small sample last year. Extrapolate the homers over 500 at bats and correct the batting avg and this guy is a top 10 first basemen.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Or light sleepers? I’m having a hard time getting on the Dom Smith train, and I’ve been looking at him…

      • Willy Mo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: yeah i get it he hit a ton of grounders and had a 22.5% hr/fb which he wont repeat but i feel like he will go undrafted in all but the deepest leagues. As long as the Mets dont add a first basemen im drafting him late af in 12 teamers. Could see him hitting 25 homers with a 275 avg in 500 at bats easily.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I have a feeling you’ll be dropping him in 12 teamers in the 1st week… Maybe he’ll get relevant in 12 teamers later on the season tho…

          • Willy Mo says:
            (link)

            @Grey: it will come down to playing time i think. If he plays everyday hes going to hit

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Unless the Mets do something stupid, grabbing A-Gon or Napoli, he should be the everyday 1B

  3. Crime dog says:
    (link)

    How does he get to the 2 hole? Segura injury? Segura sucking or gamel just being better? Gordon Segura cano Cruz seager will be hard to crack but I guess half those guys could easily be out for months.

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Crime dog: You get to the two hole from behind. Usually no sucking involved but definitely crack.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Haha

      • Crime dog says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: lol

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Long season, and if anyone in the top five guys hurts themselves, he moves up…

  4. CardFan says:
    (link)

    I am in a 11 Team $260 NL Only League, 11 Keepers. I drafted A Reyes from the Cardinals at $1 Last Year knowing he would be out all year. Question: Will the Cardinals have to keep him on the Opening day Roster for 2018 since he was on the Opening day Roster in 2017 and he was on the DL all year? We also get to keep 3 minor league players. I would like A Reyes to be classified as a minor leaguer.
    How will A Reyes be classified opening day, on the opening day roster or a Minor Leaguer?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I think he’ll be on the major league roster, and the DL, that would be my guess, at least…

  5. Ian says:
    (link)

    Need some help on my last keeper. Pick 1:

    Moncada: 25th round pick
    Correa: 3rd rd
    Benintendi: 9th rd
    Robbie Ray: 23rd rd
    Buxton: 20th rd

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tough call… I’d likely go Benintendi, good value and safest…

  6. Hope Solo's Meat Grinder aka Bojack Horseman says:
    (link)

    Great stuff Grizzle. What approximate range of rounds would you target Gamel in a 15-team, 50-round NFBC?

    Whilst you are in your Leviathan-like ranking process, which player, so far, has been the most difficult to rank?

    Lastly, a quick thought experiment: Say you knew your fellow 12-team drafters were going to over-value the 2B and SS positions in your draft, would you…
    A.) Lock in one or more of the top guys (Altuve, Turner, Correa, J Ramirez, Lindor, Gordon)
    B.) Wait until after top 100 overall to fill your 3 MI spots
    C.) Something else

    Thanks Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      They’re all tough! Where is Correa supposed to go?! Gamel’s around a 220-250 pick… A. Lock in at least one, maybe two…

  7. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    I like the deep league look at sleepers. I’m just struggling with one thing. Is having a Gamel toe a good thing or bad thing?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Depends who has it, no?

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I don’t think it matters. If you have Gamel on your team and you say I have Gamel toe, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It’s a good thing if he’s on your team, but Gamel toe sounds painful…

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: being our deep league expert around here, I wonder how my fantasy crush Laura feels about the Gamel toe.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I bet she likes him…. Only time a girl likes a cheap guy…

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Maybe that was my problem with girls…or it could have been the grating personality

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, I blame it on my frugality… Alternates hurt too much…

                  • Jack Deth says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: frugality? We are both such Jews

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      As a cheap AF Jew, I do this all the time: someone else is cheap, and I point out, “And they call Jews cheap.”

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Like it makes it okay for me

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      Is that like when I say, “and they say fat people are dumb” which turns into a whole “who says that” and “you’re crazy”…. then I go through numerous television and hollywood depictions of fat dumb/slow/bumbling people

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Haha, exactly… These stereotypes hurt! (Though, I propagate them)

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      I take advantage of them

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      The propagators?

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      the people that have assumptions about fat people

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Effin assumptors!

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      I’ve come to embrace and exploit it.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Teach me the ways, sensei

  8. Motor City Kitties says:
    (link)

    After reading this article this morning, I went to check my league to see if he was available, and I missed him by 3 minutes…I must be in a league with some fellow Razzball readers. Thanks for the great content.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Damn, no problem… Happy new year!

  9. DonnieB says:
    (link)

    Would you rank Gamel higher than Kepler,Choo,Kemp,CarGo or Peralta? Who do you like amongst that list? Do you think Piscotty might have his personal issues behind him and a good rebound candidate? Thank you.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’ll be ranking every player in January with my rankings…

  10. BiggerBagels says:
    (link)

    FTR, recently you have crushed me with the Lurzado dynasty piece. LAst yr end of season i had him , but was contending so dropped him to addd someone. I loveeeee him. Sadly, most guys in our lg read your artickes im sure. I might be blinded but see a 150ip 160k 3.70era 1.18whip type of sp in 2yrs plus. Anyway, you rock!!! love your articles. Happy and a healthy new yr

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

  11. Evan says:
    (link)

    14 team deep Keeper – mixed league
    $260 budget
    What are your thoughts on keeping a $1 Josh Bell?
    Traded a $40 Harper for him.
    Thanks again and can’t wait for another awesome fantasy season.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Harper, but if you’ve done it, I’d keep Bell

      • Evan says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Thanks so much. There will be a lot of top talent available on draft day so I’m betting on a big season from Bell. Can’t wait to see your projections for him!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Gotcha

  12. Matt says:
    (link)

    Come on Grey!

    Quit teasing me with this innocent looking “Mitch Haniger” reference so soon after our talk. You know you want to make him a ”sleepy” guy again. We both know you do!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha, I hate to kill your Mitch vibe, but Haniger’s not gonna be a sleeper…

      • Matt says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        You’re missing the boat pal!! Haniger to Infinity and Beyond!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          *looking up what I wrote for Haniger in rankings* Hmm…Maybe he is a sleeper!

  13. Lucas says:
    (link)

    Gamel-Heredia looks like a platoon waiting to happen.

    Gamel vs LHP: .275/.299/.400 with a 86 wRC+
    Heredia vs LHP: .310/.360/.434 with a 118 wRC+

    Small sample sizes obviously, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a strict platoon happen if Gamel shows continued struggles against LHP. Plus, Heredia is the better defender.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, that’s a concern, hopefully not

Comments are closed.