I’m Asian, so [email protected]#! Yuli Gurriel! I’m also a fantasy baseball writer, so separation of emotion from the numbers is a must. Much strength will be required in providing an objective analysis regarding Gurriel, so I’d appreciate if you click this post trillions of times so I can supersize my McyD’s and get the kids some new shoes. Thank you. Gurriel clubbed 31 homers last season and had a triple slash of .298/.343/.541. As a result, his average ADP from NFBC drafts (1/1/20-2/15/20) is the 125th overall player. [email protected]#! Yuli Gurriel?

Gurriel is 35 years old, yet has only played three and change seasons in the bigs. His rookie season consisted of 36 games and 137 plate appearances. Yes, Grey, I’m writing up another old guy. Maybe I have a thing for the olds? Should I hit up AARP to sponsor my posts? Anyways, in the past years when he played full seasons with the Astros, Gurriel never hit below .290 and never struck out more than 11% of the time. The swinging strike rate has never been in the double digits and the contact rate in the strike zone has always been above 91%. Translation: he’s a professional hitter.

It’s the power that needs to be questioned. In 2018, he hit 13 homers. In 2017, 18 homers. We also know the baseball had less drag last season, which assisted in Gurriel hitting 31 homers. Or did it? Or was it the “cheating”? Maybe it was a combination of both?

If the baseball contributed to more distance, which explains the increase in homers, then the average fly ball distance numbers would show that, right? Well, in 2017, the average home run distance was 393 feet, good for 190th. In 2018, that number was 378 feet, good for 240th. Last season, it was 387 feet, good for 224th.

The “cheating” angle is obviously a tough one to decipher, especially since the alleged activities started the same year Gurriel debuted in the bigs. It’s impossible to quantify or project how much Gurriel’s stats would need to be downgraded, but it’s fair to assume that the loss of certain advantages would have some impact. I liken it to a batter facing an 0-2 count versus 3-0. All the numbers show that batters are much more successful when in a 3-0 count. This is due to being able to sit on a certain pitch in a specific location, but also the repertoire shrinking for the pitcher. With that said, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and say he received no benefit from the cheating. That 31 home run season sure does stick out like a sore thumb.

When I search for breakout or bounceback players, I always look for an injury that may have hampered their prior season or a change to the pitching arsenal/hitting approach. Should that same concept be utilized the other way as well? I didn’t find anything for Gurriel. Now, he does have skills, so the batting average and strikeout rate should be fine but……his ADP over the past four years has been: 277, 259, 193, and now 125 this year. The trend is usually our friend, but has the market topped out?

Rudy has Gurriel projected for 143 games, 607 plate appearances, a .288/.322/.484 slash, 23.3 home runs, 82.7 runs, 93.1 RBI, and 4.8 stolen bases. The regression is factored into the numbers, but is it far enough? Rudy is a wizard, but those numbers seem high for me. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 15 home runs this season. With that said, say the projections are close. You have to pay a top 125 price for him, which is too high considering the many unknowns. In addition, I could get Daniel Murphy, who projects for similar numbers, over 100 picks cheaper.

[email protected]#! Gurriel in real life and for fantasy.

VERDICT

 
  1. Zeus says:
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    I’m half Jewish and would draft hitler if he were good at baseball.

    That said everything screams (bang bang) career year for this buzzy Astro.

    Also fuck the Astros.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Ha! Well said, Zeus. Well said.

  2. Jolt In Flow says:
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    Thanks for the write-up. I didn’t realize how old he was. Makes me wonder how old the Jays’ equivalent is.

    Son, I think I’m going to sign up to the commenter league you’re a part of. Your unrefined moments in your write-ups makes me want to win more than normal.

    I already jumped into Kerry K’s league because I need to take down a person with a profile pic like his. That’s all it took; an NYY profile pic where the WS rings are being shown off!

    See you at the draft.

    • Zeus says:
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      Yankee Baseball son.

        • Zeus says:
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          Yankee baseball son, son.

          • Son

            Son says:
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            Spankee the Yankees

    • Son

      Son says:
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      I was surprised how old Yuli was as well. Lourdes is 26, but we may have to add a few years to both. Who knows?

      Ha! Let’s rock and roll, Jolt! Hmmm, I’m confused as to the unrefined moments comment. Should I be offended by that or take it as a compliment? I’m leaning towards: you want to kick my ass because you don’t like them? =)

      Any excuse for a fight huh, Jolt? I respect it at all.

      Looking forward to drafting with you!

      • Jolt In Flow says:
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        Agreed. Anything for a fight!

        I’m in; looking forward to it.

        PS. I have to admit; it’s one of the coolest things to be able to be in a pool with you experts, with these commenter leagues. This is my first time trying.

        • Son

          Son says:
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          Nice!

          Yeah, Grey is the man and has built a website of extraoridnary magnitude!

  3. Laura Holt

    Laura Holt says:
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    Between this and my post today, we definitely should have hit up AARP for some sponsorship! And nice write-up — thanks for reminding me why I haven’t drafted Gurriel this season and don’t plan to!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Let’s do it!!!

      And thanks, Miss Holt! About to check out your piece right now

  4. Coolwhip

    Coolwhip says:
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    Haha… Did Grey make you write him up Son? I’m sorry.

    Yuli was just ridiculous… More info: he “overperformed” on nearly all metrics. His barrel% was only 3.8% and hardhit% was 37.5%… really bad

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I had no say on Son writing up the boringest guys in history this preseason

      • Coolwhip

        Coolwhip says:
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        LOL!

      • Son

        Son says:
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        My seppuku knives are sharp and waiting for your order

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’m gonna tiptoe up on you when you’re least expecting like a lo-fi ninja

          • Son

            Son says:
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            Time to don the feather armor then. Will wait for you to cackle when your feet get tickled

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Grey’s an ageist. He hates when I write about the olds

      Good stuff. Exit velocity is consistently in the 88-89 mph range as well

  5. Trust the Process says:
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    Son! Good stuff… was just offered Yordan for Bo straight up … 12 team forever keep 10 & 10 farm … have Royce, Downs on the farm … Ketel & Kingery on MLB … whatcha think ?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Thanks, TtP!

      I love Bichette, but I looooooooooooooooooooooooove Yordan.

  6. galica says:
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    Son!!!!

    Great report as always. Keep them coming!

    a. You missed the obvious link…2017=13, 2018=18…ergo 2019=31….ergo if you are following the Fibonacci series with me then 2020 will be…49! Of course it never will be, but imagine that we could predict HR by using a simple Fibonacci series!! I kid, he will hit 25 and still be great for fantasy and where he’s going.

    b. So that’s Khris, Odorizzi (sorry missed this one too, thought I only missed Peralta before) Murphy, Peralta (sorry missed you on this one, my bad), Yuli. This is great work, man. Thank you. I have witnessed that most of these players can be had like 15th earliest. No one wants any of these players in mock drafts that I have been in with 11 other humans. As for a room full of robots, the love is even worse!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Son

      Son says:
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      Ha! Well done, galica. I’m usually all over that angle.

      For sure, all are undervalued for one reason or another. If you draft, make sure they fit your roster construction

Comments are closed.