Bailey Ober gave up a lot of home runs. 20, to be exact. That was only in 92 1/3 IP. His 1.95 HR/9 made me choke on my boba. That alone is a crime punishable by “not getting a fantasy baseball sleeper post written for him.” Bailey Ober’s pitches generated a 19.7 Launch Angle. If you’re going to allow a 45.8% fly ball rate, which would’ve been 2nd in the league, if he qualified, you kinda can’t be allowing a Ding Dong Parade. By the way, a Ding Dong Parade is the all-male revue your wife went to during her bachelorette party; don’t shoot the messenger. “Ding Dong” Parades is a weak-hitting shortstop in the Mexican Fall League, different guy. Also, a Ding Dong Parade is not what you want to see from a pitcher or Bailey Ober’s xERA at 4.48. Reach for the Remote Control, get Ober off my TV.
Bailey wasn’t like the other kids. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
Stop allowing homers is what mattered, nothing else did. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
Fantasy baseballers said “yes” but he said “no”. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
Now he’s in this game and just like that he’s down 4-0. (REMOTE CONTROL!)
I will now grin like an idiot as I try to defend why we’re even talking about Ober. Stop giving up homers, Bailey Ober! Oh my God, I just realized something, Bailey Ober is really Homer Bailey Ober. Goodbye, friends, I’m going to walk into traffic. But first! So, what can we expect from Bailey Ober for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Bailey Ober sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve finished my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings and they’re all available on our Patreon. Anyway II, the Bailey Ober sleeper:
Homer Bailey Ober can stop giving up homers, because I don’t know why he was giving up homers to begin with and don’t end sentences with with — dah! Across his minor league career, Ober gave up 11 homers in 181 2/3 IP. Sure, minor leagues are not major leagues. Thanks, Einstein. His WHIP was also 0.94 in the minors, backed by a 1.04 BB/9. Last year in the majors in those 92 1/3 IP, he had a 1.85 BB/9. What that tells me is he knows exactly where the ball is going. This is not a guy throwing the ball and praying. A guy who knows where the ball is going can figure out where to throw it to stop giviing out tickets to the Ding Dong Parade.
What I failed to mention when I said that fly ball rate and Launch Angle above was that Max Scherzer, Dylan Cease, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Giolito, Julio Urias…A ton of aces were in the top 10 for fly ball rates and Freddy Peralta had a 21.4 Launch Angle; Scherzer had essentially same Launch Angle as Ober, and that doesn’t matter. Lazy fly balls are just as good as keeping the ball on the ground. Ober might actually be the least fortunate guy for home runs allowed as I’ve ever seen. As aforementioned, he allowed 20 homers, and he pitches for the Twins, who play in the Hubert H. Homerfree Dome. It’s the 21st worst stadium for hitters on a three-year rolling average. Ober was so unlucky that the expected home runs allowed for him if he pitched in only Hubert H. Homerfree Dome was 13. That’s wild. I figured giving up that amount of homers and having that good command was rare, so I skimmed (honestly, might’ve missed one or two) all pitchers with a 1.85 BB/9 since 2000 for guys with a HR/9 that was as bad as Ober’s and it returned zero pitchers. Only one guy was even close, and that was Carlos Silva. The only slight difference between Ober and Silva is Ober had a 9.4 K/9. Silva had a 4 K/9 in his career! In fact (Grey’s got more!), there was only eight guys since 2000 with a 1.95 HR/9. It’s rare, because it’s awful! And it’s never paired with a guy with Ober’s command. It’s common sense. If a guy can throw the ball where he wants, he’s not going to throw meatballs like a chef at Buca di Beppo. Okay, PETA is at my door for beating this dead horse, so I need to move on before someone throws a can of paint on me.
Bailey Ober works off a bleh 92 MPH fastball, but that is just butter for when he makes the hitter toast with his change. He threw that change in the 81 to 88 MPH range, averaging 84 and had that get absolutely rocked, which is again crazy. Ober’s such a weird one, guys and five lady readers. Ober was way more successful with a ‘whatever’ fastball than he was with his change. Ober said during the season that he was finding more success with the fastball because his excellent change was setting it up, instead of the reverse. Here’s the thing, Homer Bailey Ober, your results weren’t good with a 1.95 HR/FB. What I think will happen is someone will figure out his sequencing so he’s setting up his great change to succeed vs. the reverse. It’s not punchline then joke; it’s joke pitch, then punchout. With this figured out, Bailey Ober will reduce his home runs allowed (because honestly that can’t be worse), and will become a solid number four with flashes of a number two and three. For 2022, I’ll give Bailey Ober projections of 9-10/3.89/1.11/161 in 157 IP with a chance for more.
Grey! Happy 2022 to you and yours, and all of the Razzball family. Here’s to another year of very nice great success.
I’m loving the pitcher sleeper writeups. I’ve flagged all of the guys you’ve done write-ups so far, although Ober does give me pause. I liked him last year until I actually rostered him.
I meant to ask this last month in your Jesus Sanchez write up, so here’s a keeper question now. It’s a 5×5 h2h league with OBP. Keepers are no cost. Which of these guys would you want for 3 years? India, W Adames, Jesus Sanchez, Mondesi? It might be moot since I might trade for Albombso, and it’s a good problem to have, but I’d love your insights. Thanks in advance!
Thanks! Ober is no Cease, but he’s good and much cheaper…
India, absolutely
I’m having difficulty navigating with your new site format — I miss the previous convenience. Is there an easy way to simply get to get to the most recent baseball columns? And is there an easy way to get to (say) the sleepers? — the pulldown doesn’t go to that level of sub-topics?
Once on a sleeper post, click on the sleepers link below the title. that’s the only way i’ve found, so far.
It’s usually under rankings
On razzball.com there’s all the posts…Also there’s 2022 Fantasy Baseball Rankings and under there there’s sleepers
On the baseball page, below the articles you’ll see a section titled “Fantasy Baseball Features” one of those graphics is “2022 Sleepers” click that and it’ll take you to see everything tagged with “Sleeper”
Hubert H. Humphrey Homerfree dome? Twins haven’t played at the Metrodome(long since destroyed) since Joe Mauer was in diapers(even though he was 28, I still think that little slap d$ck was wearing them at 28)….or he has a big butt, just like the song(Mauer HAS A BIG BUTT! MAUER HAS A BIG BUTT). Classic. They play at Target Field..as in Target Stores, where many of our wives travel to for vacation to buy toilet paper and lipstick and underpanties and such- the stores, not the stadium….they don’t sell underpants. #votenotojoe #halloffameisforclosers(butnotbaseballclosers)
Either way, Grey, know u have a place to stay in Minneapolis if you ever want to come to Twins game to watch Homer Bailey Ober/Under-Wear-in the world is Benito Santiago….we would have a beverage or 2, discuss Fantasy Baseball, and laugh…then my fantasy crew and I(great guys, just ask them!), could help you write your write up for the following day! Oh my god, I just scheduled you for a ManDate! YAY Baseball! You know how to contact me! (PS: the food will be 5 star, that’s my Razzball Promise to you)
Haha, sounds fun, Jimmy Flintwhistle!
Haha, Joe Mauer!
More juice for the Houck sleeper. He’s working out with Scherzer and Verlander with a ‘heavy emphasis’ on the splitter.
Tanner Houck Makes Big Proclamation Ahead Of 2022 Red Sox Season (nesn.com)
Yes!
Enjoying the new site. It does take a little bit of time to learn how to get to things we are accustomed to using, but to me, all it is, is just learning the new way. Doing it a different way than we used to do it, doesn’t make it sucky. I like the logo, and I like the format of reading the comments now. Not sure how many readers know they can click your name ‘Grey’ and see all your articles, or click on ‘Itch’ and see all the prospect rankings. That’s one of my favorite ways to use the site.
Couple of questions for you today please! Are you good on Ryan McMahon this year or meh? I need a CI option to replace Eugenio Saurez and right now Schwindel is my best option. I was offered my Ynoa for McMahon but I just can’t get excited for it.
Other question is about closers. Vulturing for saves last year was a disaster. What I’m afraid of, is the ‘closer’ landscape was so messed up last year, people are going to be reaching even more for the top 10 closers. I’m not sure I will get one before round 10/11. I really want Pressley but it’s doubtful at that point. Anyone jumping out at you beyond that you think may not be getting much love? For example, Floro had 9.3 K/9 and 2.57 ERA in the 2nd half in 21, and Bednar with a 12.3 K/9 and 1.05 ERA in 2nd half.
There’s still some pieces that will be moved that could change the closer landscape before my first draft (I hope). Possible Kimbrel trade, Kenley signing, San Diego and Boston could still make moves, etc. So I guess my question is if you like Floro and Bednar please.
I like McMahon better than Suarez and Schwindel. Seems like a fair trade but would probably wait for a little more in return for Ynoa. Though I do think McMahon will be better in 2022. And Ynoa has to prove the 2021 BB% isn’t a fluke.
Thanks, Sport! It’ll take some time to get used to, even for me…
Pretty meh on McMahon, but he’s better than Eugenio, Schwindel’s fine too, but don’t love any of them, 3B is a mess in general
Closers are a mess…I don’t mind Bednar, Barlow, Doval…not great, but there’s a lot of unknown with closers
Hey January Grey
Happy New Year and Good to see you !
What do you think about is trade?
I get Semien for Trevor Rogers and Merrifield, wasn’t likely keeping Rogers anyways
Right now my keepers are:
C
1 – Olson
2 – Albies
3 – Riley
Ss – Tatis
Lf – Arozerena
Cf – SMarte
Rf – Merrifield
UTILITY –
Sp – Buehler Alcantara Gausman
Rp – iglesias
Fringe: JPolanco FReyes Hays TRogers
Nightpandas,
My 0.02$….I love that trade for you.
Cheers,
Ante
Happy New Year!
I like that trade
Grey!!!
Awesome!
a. Love Ober! He’ll surprise for sure. Hope the hr/9 goes down.
b. Adjusted my scoring system a bit in that H2H EVERY CATEGORY 8-team league to account for WHIP and ERA for pitchers and AVG for hitters. Suffice it to say, hitters then SP and then RP. I’m thinking…
Round 1 hit
Round 2 hit
Round 3 SP
Round 4 RP
If I get first pick overall, I will take DeGrom who’s WHIP and ERA are above all. Otherwise, incorporating AVG into the hitters’ component, VGJ and Soto are 1-2 and Tatis 3rd. With AVG 1/5 categories, steamer projections of 0.310 and 0.312 for VGJ and Soto over 0.281 for Tatis is a big deal. With the scarcity of HRs, Judge’s 41 for steamer are good to take him to 5th assuming 200 R+RBI. The average on HRs among the top 650+ hitters I used was 14.8, so 41 is huge.
It might also use common sense tiers without being too rigid and also use ADP to guide me too.
c. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 11, 2022
‘Finally, twin daughters have been born to Andrew and Kerry Kennedy Cuomo, making former New York Mayor Mario Cuomo a grandfather. The girls were named Pataki and Sucks.’
d. Marx Brothers quote of the day for January 11, 2022
‘The problem with doing nothing is that you never know when you’re finished.’
A. Thanks, I hope so!
B. I don’t mind it, but I think you have to be flexible…If a guy falls to you, be willing to take them…
C. HAHA
Love the new site Grey!
Can I get a glimpse into your upcoming rankings?
Who do you have as the better middle infidel for 2022, Luis Urias or Jake Cronenworth?
Thanks! Cronenworth is over him barely
Well this is different!
Grimey!
How many years has it been?
Maybe 8-10?
Feels like yesterday…
OH MY GOD, we have pictures together
Patiently waiting for S5 to drop on hbo
Big same!
Grey,
I miss the old format. No New Coke
Maybe he can install go to old razzball like Reddit did Just for you!
Haha
it did have its own erstwhile charm tho!
Haha
Oh, Gus
this is a good idea, to have this option, old version or new.
Hey Grey,
Love me some Bailey Ober… on the other guy’s team.
I signed up for Patreon this morning and I’m having trouble with the login. Can you help, or direct me to someone who can? Apparently neither my email, nor username, or password are correct. Judging by the patreon email that shouldn’t be the case.
Thanks for all the awesome content!
Ryan Hoffmann
Hmm…What’s the problem? Can you explain further? You can’t log into Patreon?
No problem. User error. We’re good.
Thanks!
Hello Grey,
The font is larger now, FYI.
I can’t open articles from Patreon. I’m a member. I usually go to email and open from there. Is there another way now?
So the problem seems to be browser issue…I cleared my problem by: Use Chrome, under Chrome menu, click Clear Browsing Data…Then click to Last 24 Hours, then click clear data…Let me know if that fixed it
and re: font — we’re still playing around with the site…might look like this by tomorrow https://basketball.razzball.com/mt-whiteside-erupts-again
Bigger is better…. That’s what she said.
Sigh, she did
Maybe a question as much for Itch, but who are some AAA guys in the NL to keep an eye on if there’s a universal DH? Maybe an article topic if it comes to pass.
Yeah, I think that’s a good idea for an article…Maybe from Itch
it’d mostly be guys itch already ranks pretty high and similar to his in season posts as long as everybody specific to that article is ETA short. the in season “call up list rankings (i.e. might have 2022 value)” just preseason version.
Yup, more or less
I can’t open the most recent articles when I click on the title. When I click on the category the article sorted in, I can get in. Am I the only one who is having this problem?
Yes, we’re working on it…You can click the image on razzball.com to get in, but we’re fixing the title thing
Grey,
Clearing the last 24 hours of browsing data didn’t work. Can’t open Patreon from emails.
I’m also getting adds that I have to “X” out. Pay the monthly $9.99 a month.
The ads are bc of the site redesign…We are trying to remove them, give us a few on that
Forward me your email to [email protected] and I’ll have a look
Not sure how to make a new thread so doing comment by reply. Twins no longer play in the HHH Dome. They moved to Target Field years ago. Your new website sucks BTW. Hard to read and this is someone who loves your work and belong to PATREON. Thank you for listening.
Yup, I know, I was kidding on Hubert H. Homerfreedome
The darker font in the body of the article has helped improve readability, thank you for that. Now can you also darken the font in the comments section as comments are still difficult to read against the white background.
Yup, I will look at comments next, just working thru bugs
There ya go Will, comments are darker now
Much better, thanks.
No problem
this is better, that lighter grey in place on monday was far worse. quite readable now. also somebody else noticed in itch’s recent post that the counter for pages going back DOES still exist but ONLY if you index first by writer (i’m guessing since in writer indexed mode it still uses the old formats maybe? either way it works). so if say you wanted to read somebody’s update from months+ ago your fastest option would be first to index by writer, then go to bottom of page to page back whatever number.
Ah, okay, I didn’t even know that!
yeah if that doesn’t change you’d have the same manueverability as previously.
Yeah, it shouldn’t change much now…It’s mostly cosmetic
Do you think Votto has another good year in him? Statcast seems to show what he did last year was legit. I also like the darker text in the comments.
It also looks like the email issue has been resolved.
Great!
Yeah, he seems pretty legit, but last year has to be the ceiling, I think
ozark starting really soon (21st) and it all comes out at same time it would appear, none of this awful waiting each week, such as the showtime/HBO’s newest shows that just started/finished seasons.
guessing you finished up gomorrah’s newest by now
Yup! Haven’t even started Gomorrah’s newest, I didn’t know it was even out yet stateside
If you have Severino,would you pick German over Miley or Kikuchi? Where or how do you start a fresh thread here v Reply. Thanks.
German Marquez?
at the top of the post, see picture
Domingo?
it might not be, either i’m not in the stateside area and/or somebody i know of obtained it otherwise (think that about shores it up for those reading eh)
Oh, don’t say anything then
yeah no spoilers about it if you’ve seen none of it.
Well I was considering letting Mr. Ober go from my dynasty team to make room for a prospect or something. But your post has me thinking twice about such a move.
First, how much faith do you have in Mr. Ober and your analysis? You think he can flash as a 2 or 3? That’s pretty dang good even if he is a 4.
So I’m trying to figure out how he gave up all these bombs and it struck me. Perhaps he was tipping his pitches? It doesn’t seem like a ridiculous thing to consider. What do you think?
Anyway, I actually liked Mr. Ober until he got hurt and sat on my IL the last month of the season. I’m hoping you’ll convince me to hang on to him this spring with another line or two of your infinite wisdom! What do you think? Worth the final starting pitcher spot on a dynasty team?
Also, do you think he starts the season in the majors? I was afraid they might send him back to the minors to correct the Ding Dong Parade issues.