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The Itch

Author: The Itch

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The Itch

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

December 17, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 15 Comments

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1. SS Jackson Holliday | 20 | AAA | 2024

While building out this list, I found myself wondering if Baltimore’s tanktastic strategy would work these days. The draft lottery changes the math a lot. If you take Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holiday away from the Orioles, not to mention some of the high-upside, overslot chances they took with their draft budget surplus over the years, they’re probably nowhere close to the ALDS, where their season ended in 2023. Yay for the draft lottery, is what I realized. I already felt that way, of course, and the Orioles would still be on the uptick with this front office even with a penny pinching nepo baby in the ownership suite, but it’s nice to think the wins-are-bad loophole that helped build the Astros, Cubs and Orioles title contenders has been closed even a little bit. Baltimore’s final big prize for super-quitting, Holliday traversed four levels in 2023, climbing all the way to Triple-A for a few weeks and posting a 109 wRC+ there with 16 walks and 17 strikeouts in 18 games. He’ll begin 2024 with a chance to claim the opening day shortstop job.

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The Itch

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

December 13, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 12 Comments

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1. SS Marco Luciano | 22 | MLB | 2023

Luciano was rushed to the majors despite struggling at most stops along the way, and Farhan Zaidi has said he’ll have a chance to open 2024 as the starting shortstop despite hitting .209 with a 35.9 percent strikeout rate in 18 Triple-A games and .231 with a 37.8 percent strikeout rate in his 14-game September stint. If he does get that job, he’s going to have some rough patches. Like a lot of players who signed just before 2020, he hasn’t really played all that much and retains some hidden topside as he settles in at the highest level.

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The Itch

San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

December 10, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 9 Comments

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1. SS Jackson Merrill | 20 | AA | 2024 

Supreme contact skills from the left side give Merrill a fantastic base from which to develop his game over the next decade. He struck out just 62 times in 114 games across two levels last year, posting a 111 wRC+ in High-A and a 104 in Double-A despite being 4.3 years younger than the league average age. He’ll open in Triple-A and could look ready for the majors in April. There’s a chance the club trades Ha-Seong Kim and/or Jake Cronenworth this winter and opens an early avenue for Merrill.

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The Itch

Prospect News: Winter Meetings or The Kelenic Question

December 6, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 5 Comments

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A player doesn’t strike out or not because of where he’s at in the batting order. I start here because I’ve read some thoughts suggesting Jarred Kelenic will be instantly better at making contact simply because he’ll bat lower in the lineup. I’m not saying that’s an impossible outcome; I just think there’s a correlation versus causation conversation there. Even if he does play better in Atlanta, I’m more likely to chalk that up to coaching and reps than I am a number next to his name. Another thing that will make a positive difference is the home ballpark. Lefties face an uphill (up-current?) battle in Seattle, while Truist plays closer to neutral with a little lean toward pitcher-friendliness. 

Let’s get a quick look at the particulars. 

Seattle gets RHP Cole Phillips, RHP Jackson Kowar, P Budget Relief

Atlanta gets OF Jarred Kelenic, LHP Marco Gonzales, 1B Evan White

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The Itch

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

December 3, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 7 Comments

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1. OF Andy Pages | 23 | AAA | 2024 

Pages could be part of the Dodgers’ story in 2024 from chapter one if he can hit a little this spring. Might need an injury or two to break camp but figures to get written into the lineup by the time summer rolls round. Might’ve happened this year if not for a torn labrum that ended his season in June, just one game into his Triple-A career. At 6’1” 212 lbs, Pages features double-plus power, plus patience and a strong throwing arm from a corner-outfield profile. The shoulder injury throws this into question, of course, but if he comes all the way back, he could make an early impact.

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The Itch

Colorado Rockies Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

November 29, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 6 Comments

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1. SS Adael Amador | 20 | AA | 2025

A plus hit tool combines with above average power and excellent plate skills to make Amador the easy number one in this organization. A switch-hitter at 6’0” 200 lbs, he slashed .302/.391/.514 with nine home runs, 12 stolen bases, 26 strikeouts and 31 walks in 54 games at High-A Stockton. His ten games in Double-A didn’t go as smoothly, but it’d be premature to care. More useful to note that he earned that promotion as a cherry on top of a good season than to parse the small sample. I have 2025 as the ETA here, but that’s partly because the Rockies figure to be out of contention by the time Amador might be ready to graduate Triple-A if he has another strong season.

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The Itch

Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

November 26, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 4 Comments

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1. SS Jordan Lawlar | 21 | MLB | 2023

The snakes slithered into the World Series on the strength of Corbin Carrol’s fantastic rookie season and some dynamite outings from the starting rotation. Lawlar’s on the books with a chance to repeat Carroll’s rookie of the year feat and establish himself as an everyday player in the top half of a contending lineup. At 6’2” 190 lbs, Lawlar plays plus defense at shortstop and brings plus power and speed on offense. The hit tool was his only question mark, but Lawlar answered that with a midseason surge that landed him in Triple-A, where he slashed .358/.438/.612 with five home runs, three stolen bases and 12 strikeouts in 16 games. He joined the big league club in September but couldn’t keep the hits coming and batted (and slugged) .129 with a 32.4 percent strikeout rate in 14 games. Would’ve been nice to see him help enough to have an obvious job entering 2024, but a couple weeks of 0-fers is no big deal for a guy his age debuting during a pennant race.

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The Itch

St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

November 22, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 13 Comments

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Format = Position Player | Age on 4/1/2024 | Highest Level Played | Estimated Time of Arrival 

1. SS Masyn Winn | 22 | MLB | 2023

The outcomes were awful in Winn’s first big league stretch. It was just 37 games, but you can’t slash .172/.230/.328 across any stretch without creating some question marks. They wear caps and sleeves at this level. The son of big leaguer Randy Winn, Masyn is certainly aware that he’ll have to hit to hold his spot in 2024, and I’m betting he will. He’s as physically gifted as anyone on the team and has typically figured a level out after a brief adjustment period. Feels like a pretty easy buy at his current NFBC ADP of 449. A .250 average with 15+ homers and 25+ steals is well within his range of outcomes.

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The Itch

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

November 19, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 7 Comments

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Format = Position Player | Age on 4/1/2024 | Highest Level Played | Estimated Time of Arrival 

 

1. RHP Paul Skenes | 21 | AA | 2024

Skenes gave up catching and quickly became the best pitcher in college baseball. At 6’6” 235 lbs, he wasn’t really built for crouching all day. What he was built to do is shove 100 mile per hour fastballs through the strike zone and bury unhittable sliders. The club jumped him up to Double-A for a couple of short outings, so it stands to reason that’s where he’ll open 2024, but this could be a situation where his stuff is just too dominant for the minor leagues.

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The Itch

Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

November 15, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 15 Comments

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Format = Position Player | Age on 4/1/2024 | Highest Level Played | Estimated Time of Arrival 

1. OF Jackson Chourio | 20 | AAA | 2024

A phenomenal athlete who generates unique torque, Chourio hit 22 home runs and stole 43 bases as a 19-year-old in a Double-A league that used a pre-tacked ball to start the season. Hypotheses vary on how much the tacky ball impacted offensive outcomes, but there’s little doubt it increased the difficulty level for hitters. The league swapped out that experiment for a different one after a couple weeks, but the ball was still . . . unique enough that it creates a little error bar and reverse-explained some of Chourio’s early struggles. Mostly, he was pretty great, slashing .280/.336/.467 with an 18.4 percent strikeout rate and a 112 wRC+ across 122 games. This earned him a promotion to Triple-A for the final six games, where he slashed .333/.375/.476 with just one strikeout. Milwaukee has a lot of pieces to sort through, and you can see by the ETAs on this list that their path won’t get clearer anytime soon. There’s not much Chourio could prove at Triple-A Colorado Springs, so he’s got an outside shot to open the season in the big leagues. 

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The Itch

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

November 8, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 16 Comments

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Format = Position Player | Age on 4/1/2024 | Highest Level Played | Estimated Time of Arrival 

1. RHP Cade Horton | 22 | AA | 2024

Horton heard his name during the seventh overall pick in the 2022 Rule 4 draft, and he’s been making noise ever since. In 21 games across three levels this season, he pitched 88.1 innings and recorded 117 strikeouts with a 1.00 WHIP and a 2.65 ERA. Word around the north side is that they’ll be extremely active in free agency, and it’s hard to disagree after seeing the cash they’re shelling out for new manager Craig Counsell, but I hope they only block Horton for legitimate rotation options. I think he could win a spot out of spring training if they’d let him.

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