Good day to you, sovereign citizens of Razzball nation.
I have been thinkin’ about injuries again. Specifically, spring injuries.
Spring injuries are frustrating because most of them don’t feel actionable. For the most part, nobody is ruled out. Timelines are fuzzy. Every update sounds encouraging. And yet, this is exactly when draft-relevant uncertainty starts to pile up like 50 cars on the Michigan portion of the interstate in January.
In my last post, Injury Risk Reality Check for Draft Season, we talked about injury risk as something to manage rather than avoid. I never thought I’d be thinking about Alfred Kinsey while writing a fantasy baseball article, but here we are: injury risk is a spectrum, not a binary. This week is about where that gray area starts to show up before it turns into box score surprises or early IL stints.
We aren’t panicking or crossing names off draft boards (YET), but we are looking for places where risk is quietly expanding. Missed reps. Slow ramp-ups. Late or lingering procedures. Situations where “should be ready” doesn’t always mean fully ready.
Known long-term (actual or referral) injuries aren’t the point here. This is about uncertainty that spring training can still resolve. For example, Shane Bieber’s timeline currently hinges on availability and rehab checkpoints, not usage questions that spring reps can meaningfully clarify right now. Hopefully, we will learn more about the Biebs soon.
Let’s hop in.
Injuries That Aren’t A Problem… Yet
Francisco Lindor (NYM, SS): Elbow Debridement Surgery
Coming in at No. 10 on Grey’s Top 10 for 2026 Fantasy Baseball, Francisco Lindor underwent right elbow debridement surgery in October 2025. He had a similar procedure on the same elbow in 2023.
While the offseason surgery hasn’t generated much public concern, Lindor returned to the news recently when the MLBPA announced he will not participate for Team Puerto Rico in the 2026 World Baseball Classic due to WBC insurance constraints. Lindor is still expected to take part in spring training.
Francisco Lindor will not be playing for Team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic after having a cleanup procedure on his right elbow this offseason.
— Roger Cormier (@yayroger.bsky.social) 2026-01-31T04:23:21.911Z
I get that the WBC insurance situation isn’t a fantasy issue by itself, but it is useful context. It’s easy to read an insurance constraint and assume something is “wrong” with Lindor. In reality, it mostly shows how cautiously recent surgeries are treated when someone else is carrying the financial risk.
This still doesn’t mean Lindor is injured, expected to miss MLB time, or unsafe to draft. MLB teams are comfortable managing him because they control his workload, ramp-up, and recovery in a way the WBC can’t. Insurers aren’t projecting performance or role. They’re thinking about financial exposure and worst-case outcomes. They probably still have flashbacks to the Edwin Díaz WBC celebration.
This is also a good time to remember that availability and readiness are not the same thing. Even though he is a “go” for spring training, teams tend to be careful with throwing volume and recovery after elbow work. That can quietly affect early-season readiness.
Draft takeaway: Same upside, with a slightly wider early-season range of outcomes. Tune out headlines and watch workload.
Austin Riley (ATL, 3B): Core Muscle Surgery
In August 2025, Austin Riley underwent core surgery after straining his lower abdominal muscles twice in quick succession.
Riley currently checks in at No. 6 on Grey’s Top 20 third basemen for 2026 fantasy baseball, slotted into the “Potentially rancid mayo” tier, which feels both appetizing and accurate.
Core surgeries usually recover well, but rotational injuries can linger. When the core isn’t right, power is often the first thing to dip, followed by some inconsistency in contact. In 2025, it’s reasonable to think Riley leaned more on timing and solid contact than full-effort swings, a trade-off that can push BABIP higher (.337) while quietly capping home run output.
Teams also tend to ease hitters back into full swings after core work, which can slow early work at the plate. The bigger picture is still encouraging. Riley looks like a hitter with a stable BABIP floor and power that should rebound as his core fully recovers, even if the batting average gives back a little ground along the way. Not a bad trade.
Draft takeaway: Same skill set, with a bit more uncertainty around early-season power.
Zack Wheeler (PHI, SP): Thoracic Outlet–Related Surgery
Sitting at No. 60 in Grey’s starting pitchers list, Zack Wheeler is a big question mark. He is throwing again after dealing with a blood clot related to thoracic outlet syndrome, which is encouraging and narrows the true downside. Still, thoracic outlet recoveries tend to be less linear than most pitching injuries. Even when things are moving in the right direction, outcomes can vary based on how a pitcher responds to workload, recovery, and sustained intensity over time.
Because of that, the Phillies, and YOU, have every reason to be deliberate early. Pitch counts, rest between starts, and how quickly Wheeler is allowed to turn lineups over will matter more than radar gun readings in March. This situation is less about whether he’ll pitch and more about how aggressively he’s ramped once games start to count.
Draft takeaway: There is a stairway to Heaven, but it is one gated by workload and recovery. You’re drafting uncertainty.
Masyn Winn (STL, SS): Knee Surgery (Meniscus)
Winn checks in comfortably inside Grey’s Top 20 shortstops for 2026, and the Cardinals have sounded optimistic about his recovery after knee surgery. Winn himself has said he plans to run more now that the knee is healthy, which is exactly what you want to hear.
The catch is that knee procedures often look fine on paper before speed and defensive reps fully return. Next thing you know, someone’s leg goes flying off. For fantasy purposes, the risk usually shows up in running volume and durability, not batting average or power. Early caution in the field or fewer aggressive decisions on the bases would matter more than his Opening Day status.
In other words, the optimism is encouraging, but as I have repeated many times, the usage still needs to show up.
Draft takeaway: The speed is the question.
Isaac Paredes (HOU, 3B): Hamstring Strain
Isaac Paredes doesn’t sit far behind Austin Riley at No. 12 on Grey’s Top 20 third basemen for 2026 fantasy baseball.
Hamstring injuries are classic day-to-day situations that quietly eat into reps without forcing an IL stint. Even mild strains can lead to fewer games in the field, a slower ramp, or conservative baserunning early. In Paredes’ case, his hamstring injury was severe enough for surgery to be on the table. The Astros don’t have much incentive to push things in March, especially after getting his contract situation settled. The priority is having him right, not rushed.
This type of injury rarely makes headlines, but it can still shape early-season usage if it lingers just enough.
Draft takeaway: Don’t assume full-speed usage right out of the gate.
Joe Musgrove (SDP, SP): Tommy John Surgery
Joe Musgrove? That’s a name I haven’t heard in many fortnights.
As MarmosDad mentioned in his preseason starting pitchers post, Musgrove is trending toward being ready early, with the Padres indicating there is no strict innings cap planned for 2026, at least as things stand now. He’s also well over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. That said, “no cap” doesn’t mean “no management.” The Padres still control how aggressively they deploy him early, which is the uncertainty worth tracking. The tone around Musgrove has been encouraging, but the emphasis remains on building him up rather than squeezing every possible inning out of April.
@973TheFanSD tweetedJoe Musgrove says that he's felt great the last 2-3 weeks, both with his health, as well as his velocity and pitch shape, and is really excited for spring training.
— Padres Twitter Bot (@padres-bot.bsky.social) 2026-01-31T20:10:54.668133+00:00
Like Wheeler, this is less about whether Musgrove can take the ball and more about how aggressively the Padres let him go once games start to count. Pitch counts, rest between starts, and whether skipped turns creep in will tell you more than a hot spring radar-gun reading.
Draft takeaway: The cap may be gone, but early-season usage still matters.
Spring Training Clues That Matter
When you’re tracking these situations in spring, focus on how players are being used, not how they look in highlights. Ask yourself:
Is this hitter playing on back-to-back days?
That usually signals the team is comfortable with recovery, not just clearing him to appear.
Is this pitcher working on normal rest?
Rest patterns show whether the team trusts his recovery between starts, which is a better indicator of early-season workload than velocity readings in March.
Is the hitter playing the field and running hard?
Full defensive reps and aggressive baserunning are signs a player is closer to normal usage.
Are pitch counts climbing steadily from outing to outing?
A gradual build toward full starts matters more than one sharp inning.
What language is the team using in updates?
“No setbacks” suggests the plan hasn’t changed. “We’ll be cautious” usually means limits are already baked in.
Is this a soft-tissue issue?
Obliques, hamstrings, and calves tend to live in the gray area between healthy and unavailable, so they deserve extra scrutiny.
Parting Thoughts Before We Panic Later
This isn’t meant to scare you off talented players (yet), and it’s not about predicting setbacks. Injury risk is part of the deal. The edge comes from spotting uncertainty before draft day, not scrambling once roles or workloads shift in April.
Next time, we’ll dig into pitching injuries and data, which already has me in a light cold sweat. Spring training will be underway by then, and with any luck, there won’t be much new chaos to talk about.
I’m Keelin, your weekly reminder that injuries don’t follow timelines. You can find me on Bluesky at keelin12ft.bsky.social.
Note: This column focuses on injury situations that meaningfully affect fantasy baseball decisions. It is not a complete injury ledger or a prediction of exact timelines. Teams are often vague, information changes quickly, and this is best viewed as a snapshot of where things stand, with the goal of helping fantasy managers draft with context rather than panic.
