I know the consensus opinion of the worldwide web aka internet aka 4chan aka Russian bots on Twitter.  Saying Aaron Judge is overrated is not going to be a popular opinion.  I may as well go to a Kiwanis club on vet night and tell them they fought in The Great War so we could now have Lady Doritos, then tell them I refuse to eat Lady Doritos until we have non-binary Doritos.  “This Spicy Not-Ya-Sex chip is delicious.”  That’s me eating non-binary Doritos.   On the bright side, finally, we can do a baby reveal party with Doritos.  That would be as popular as calling Aaron Judge overrated.  Walking into a Korean spa and telling the owners I was there to check for hidden cameras would be greeted more enthusiastically.  Standing behind the counter at Chipotle, announcing there’s no more avocados, would be greeted more warmly.  Saying Aaron Judge is overrated is a real pickle.  However, for Christmas, I got a sous vide machine and I’ve made pickles every weekend for the last six weeks, so I drink up your pickle!  I drink it up!  Wow, that sounds very wrong.  Keeping with the recurring theme that wasn’t recurring until right now, Aaron Judge is butter pickles.  Could be sweet, but I don’t like sweet pickles.  I like them shizzes sour.  Then again, I’m sour on Judge, so I should be all right with him; I’m not, though.  So, why is Aaron Judge overrated and what can we expect from him for 2018 fantasy baseball?

One name, Joey Gallo.  Take me out of the equation and my projections.  But before I go, all I need is this chair!…And this ashtray, this paddle game and this remote control and that’s all I need.  Our Steamer projections give these two lines for Judge and Gallo:  93/37/95/.254/7 and 82/38/93/.227/6.  Gallo has better eligibility too, but position scarcity-schmarcity.  So 11 runs, 2 RBIs and one steal.  Can we all agree that’s a push?  Okay, a few people are not raising their hands, so we don’t all agree, but enough of us do.  The big difference is average.  So we’ll drill down to that, you frackers!  In the 2nd half last year, Judge hit .228 and Gallo hit .229.  Average is fickle.  Everyone should know this.  Yeah, supposedly Judge was dealing with an injury last 2nd half, but that doesn’t excuse a 30.7% K% on the year.  Judge is not a guy who is going to .284 again like he did last year.  He’s more likely to hit .220.  Not saying Gallo is going to hit .280, far from it, but these guys are a high/low BABIP away from being two peas in a pod, or if you’re reading this while wearing a diaper, two pees and poop.  BABIP bit (stutterer!) predicated on hard contact, so one guy’s Hard Contact was 46.3% and one guy’s was 45.3%.  I’ll bore you with “FOOLED YA!” and just say Gallo’s is the higher percentage.  Gallo’s homers averaged a further distance too, but, ya know, doesn’t matter.  Finally, having Giancarlo, mi novio, helping Judge is a fun anecdotal positive, but it’s just that.  Anecdotal.  Unless Giancarlo is going to bat twice in the lineup, once as himself and once wearing a Judge shirsey, it’s not going to change Judge’s bottom line dramatically from last year.  He’s still going to get a diet of offspeed stuff, especially that slider he bites on.  Judge was even worse on sliders last year than Gallo, whose swing starts each time in 2016 and travels to present day.  What matters is Judge and Gallo are insanely similar.  Judge has hype, though, that’s for sure.  You can’t enter La Guardia airport with an 8-foot, 500-pound dummy dressed in a Judge jersey without having tourists ask you for a picture with it.  Trust me, I tried!  What, I don’t want to foment rumors without testing my theories.  So, feel free to draft Judge if you like overrated mashers, but if I want 40 homers and a potential .240 average, I’ll wait 100 picks later.

 
  1. brian says:
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    olson or Gallo? Ty Grey!

    • Cram It says:
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      @brian: Ranked

      • Slappy Jack says:
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        @Cram It: ranked?
        But he has Judge ranked 21 and Gallo ranked 81 and clearly just explained why he likes one over the other, and it’s not the higher “ranked” player

        • Cram It says:
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          @Slappy Jack: Grey has these guys ranked already. He should look at the rankings.

  2. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!

    What an article!! So informative and going to open a can of worms….

    a. Am in a 2-day training in Igongo Hotel. We are embarking on a mission to verify the data already collected by our government counterpart. Could be a potential disaster. We’re hoping 90% of the caseload will be easy to handle, it’s the remaining 10% that will present a problem.

    b. Dloading as we speak Call me by your name. Hope it’s as good as you all say it is.

    c. So what you’re saying is Joey Gallo around 140 gonna get you more or less the same value, then position scarcity. Is this an Aaron Judge overrated article or a Joey Gallo underrated article? J/k. Don’t answer.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Ha, thanks! A. Can’t you just fudge the other 10%? B. It was great C. Ha

  3. TeamOtis says:
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    Going to take the 1st and disagree for the 1st time ever, and not because its a capitalist or democratic society.

    Just because of last years home run derby.

    Which led me to compare Judge’s and Gallo’s spray charts for last year.

    Watching that derby in round 2 when Judge (under pressure) hit multiple homers opposite field, led me to believe he can truly sustain not only 50 homer pace, but that the shift won’t affect him anywhere near as much as it will Gallo.

    Not saying he is a .284 career shizz but he is definitely likely to Judge you with contempt!

    • Pager24 says:
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      @TeamOtis: really? you are basing decisions off a home run derby? thats just glorified BP! This is just a bad take

  4. Mark says:
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    Remember that Judge’s second half swoon came after the Home Run Derby. It happens. With Stanton pushing him he’ll be a site better than his second half numbers. Bet on it. The first half was fun to watch.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mark: Giancarlo pushing him isn’t a thing

      • Troy says:
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        @Grey:

        He might steal more based with a push though?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Huh?

    • Tommy Duke says:
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      @Mark: Yes, Judge was bad after the break, BUT everyone fails to remember September was arguably his best month of the season!

  5. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    THEY (the way DJ Khalid uses it): you can’t write a schmohawk AND sleeper post simultaneously, Grey

    GREY: hold my ergonomic keyboard . . .

  6. AJ Udge says:
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    Is Judge a schmohawk in an OBP league? Where would you rank him in an OBP league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @AJ Udge: Depends on his price, but he gets a boost in OBP, around a .380 OBP guy

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: As does Gallo! OBP takes away Gallo’s BA drain and turns it into an average or better OBP. He had a .330 OBP last season, but his .357 OBP second half once he was starting every day tells a more complete story.

  7. Willy Mo says:
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    You couldnt wait to post this haha. Every projection out there for judge this season has him being way worse than he was last year, and its not like anyone is taking him inside the top five or even the top ten in fantasy 2018. Considering he was a top 3ish player last year depending on rating system and that hes regurally going outside the top 20 for 2018 fantasy, it feels like his regression is already baked into his adp.

    Lets not forget hes 25 years old and has what 600 at bats in the bigs? He had plenty of down moments and bad stretches last year. I think your focusing too much on him regressing. Hes got the opportunity to build on last season and improve on his weaknesses. It wouldnt shock me at all if he hit 60 homers with 120 runs and rbis and was a top 3 player again.

    Ohtani will be a bigger disapointment than Judge at their draft spots imo. GL sir

    • Cram It says:
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      @Willy Mo: His ADP is in the top 20 on every major site. Are 40/100 projections way worse?

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Cram It: been mocking and see him outside the top 20 plenty. Yes, 12 less homers is a lot. The 52 homers is what put him near the top last year.

        • Cram It says:
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          @Willy Mo: Well if you mean by way worse, sure, projecting him for 128/52/114/.284 again is ambitious. 40/100 still would have put him in the top 20 last year. Regression has to be expected, but going from top 5 to top 100 regression is a little more significant than regressing to top 20.

          • Willy Mo says:
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            @Cram It: i agree thats my whole point is Grey’s calling him a schmohawk at the 20th or so overall pick. I don’t think he’s that risky as the 20th overall pick because yeah he can hit 40 and a 100 like Grey’s projecting and be about the 20th best player so I’m kind of confused by the post actually, and hes already showed you he’s got upside for top 5

            • Cram It says:
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              @Willy Mo: But if he doesn’t go 40/100 which steamer is projecting he won’t and he hits .230, you didn’t draft a top 20 player. That’s the point of the post.

            • Cram It says:
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              @Willy Mo: And you can get those same numbers by drafting Gallo around pick 100.

              • Willy Mo says:
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                @Cram It: yeah i mean thats just a silly amount of regression. He hit 286 last year and that included him hitting 200 or somthing awful for literally an 8 week stretch.

                I feel like grey is calling for a worst case scenario with this post.

                • Cram It says:
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                  @Willy Mo: Or maybe it’s a real life scenario. I doubt he’s a .285 hitter. Probably more Adam Dunn than Barry Bonds.

                  • Willy Mo says:
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                    @Cram It: so lets ignore all the positives that made him a top 5 fantasy player last year as a rookie and expect all his flaws to show up this year at age 25. Yeah that seems like a fair real life scenario.

                    • Sweatpants Nation says:
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                      @Willy Mo: I think the point is don’t pay the price for Judge when you can get similar stats much later. Instead, grab someone else at 20ish that you can’t get later. Or may be Grey is just stirring the pot by messing with us, haha. Sous vide! Perfecto!

                    • Cram It says:
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                      @Willy Mo: Hey that’s part of identifying flaws in players that make them overrated. Certainly you’re aware of players that have impressive first seasons, only to flame out the next year. Sure, he’ll probably hit around 40 HRs. But so will other guys that you don’t have to pay a 2nd round price tag for if you’re getting a .240 average.

                    • The Great Knoche says:
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                      @Willy Mo: I’m not taking him in first two rounds, because there are other guys with safer projections. Everything points to him not being sustainable on the BA side of the equation. He’s the kind of guy that could make or break a draft and while the risk is worth reward, I’d rather have a more secure BA out of my 2nd rounder.

                    • Justin says:
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                      Pujols, Abreu, Trout, McGwire…all these guys had huge rookie season and then sucked….

                    • Cactus says:
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                      @Justin: Assuming sarcasm. But for every Pujols, Trout, Abreu there’s a Hinske, Soto, Chris Coglan. All rookies with big years, ROY winners in fact, that never amounted to much after that. I agree with Grey that Judge at the end of the year will have much much closer number to Joey Gallo than anyone in the top 20 of FBB.

                    • The Great Knoche says:
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                      @Willy Mo: Dallas Mcpherseon, Corey Patterson, Jerome Walton, Brian Jordan.

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Cram It: and the most major site espn has him 21

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Willy Mo: Maybe, but 60 HRs and 120 runs and RBIs feels aggressive — Ohtani is unrelated, but won’t draft him in a snake draft either

  8. Ben says:
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    Thanks for everything!!! Keep up the great info.

    I can keep 1 long term minor league player without penatly. Once he takes 1 MLB At bat I can keep him by using a draft pick.

    Would you keep Kingery knowing that he will up at some point this season? Or keep Vlad Jr, he’s obviously the better prospect but won’t help me this season. I’d basically hold him all year.

    I could always just try and redradt the guy I don’t keep or pick them up post draft.

    I’m leaning towards keeping Vlad and trying to get King post draft. What do you think ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ben: No problem — “I’m leaning towards keeping Vlad and trying to get King post draft” — makes sense

  9. Fanciful Basesball says:
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    Meh, basically every analyst I respect agrees with you. I’m still gonna buy in for the ride. He gets bonus points in obp/walks leagues. I’ve got him paired with Trea and I will love every minute of it! You can’t make me hate the pain!!!

  10. Justin says:
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    Sounds like a post for why you should draft Joey Gallo! I’m in!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: Little bit of both

  11. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    Might as well throw Khris Davis into the discussion as well. Agree on the hype factor. Given wonky average and few SBs Judge ought to be in the Gallo-Davis ranked area. (Plus for Davis over the other 2 is he has done it 2 plus years rather than just one)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sweatpants Nation: Yeah, Davis is another Judge-clone — or they are Khris Davis clones

      • Justin says:
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        @Grey:

        Nope they’re Chris Davis clones

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Tomato/Tomahto, Kh/Ch

          • CrazyJ says:
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            @Grey:

            I like Davis.

  12. Peacecoast says:
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    so here’s my problem with the sous vide. I hear it’s the best way to make a steak. Now imagine you are making dinner for you and Cougs. She likes her steak med well and you are a med rare guy (well you better be). So then what? You stop at 135 degrees, open the plastic bag and remove yours and put it somewhere and then reseal the GD bag and put hers back in for X more minutes? what the fuck is all that about? So your steak cools off and then when you sear it (which you have to in this case) X minutes later what shape is it in then? And how long will it take to get hers to 145 deg or whatever medium well is? And holy fuck imagine you are cooking for a family of four?!

    Judge is being kept in my league. With my first round pick I am leaning Machado over Bryant. I love that looming SS eligibility and they seem a wash otherwise. 3B is so deep too. Did you watch any ST games over weekend? Any observations? I watched Mikolas throw some BP to the Astros and shuddered as I looked at him highlighted on my draft board for a late pickup. Otani had some good stuff, but got behind early a lot. Probably nerves, although the mofuck looks calm as bathwater when my kids are refusing to get in.

    • knucks says:
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      @Peacecoast: So I got one of those for xmas and was very confused. Haven’t opened the box yet, as I apparently still need to buy other parts (a “water bath”?). Yea I was confused. Did my research and will prob try it at some point down the road though. Does seem like a lot of work.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @knucks: Nah, no need for a water bath, you just use a pot you use to make pasta… Just need about a gallon of water…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @knucks: Also, so much less work… You put it in and go back 90 mins later and then sear it for 2 mins, so simple, big fan

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Peacecoast: It does make the best steak I’ve ever had at home, but we eat our steak at the same temperature… Maybe I can ask Harold from Top Chef next time he’s on the pod… Mikolas is so late, you can skip him if he didn’t look good… I can’t take anything away from ST games the very first weekend, guys are barely at 50%…

  13. jack florida says:
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    16 team keeper league

    moncada or taylor

    i saw Glasnow pitch over the weekend, hit 100 multiple times, he was a little wild and Castellanos
    hit one about 410 ft—-not too much movement on his pitches, overall not too bad for first time out

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jack florida: Moncada — 100? Wow, that’s crazy, I feel like that’s really high for him

      • jack florida says:
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        @Grey: most pitches were 98, 99, 100 –one slow curve to miggy at 83

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Wow, that’s impressive

  14. BJFOHOHL says:
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    Baby Reveal Party? HAHAHAHA! Those are top three hate for me. Does it get more senseless all about me or what? Who cares what sex YOUR baby is. Oh and Judge is a tad over rated too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @BJFOHOHL: Doritos baby reveal party made me laugh very hard at myself

      • BJFOHOHL says:
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        @Grey: Doritos X? Reminds me of the episode of Veep when Marjorie tells Selena when the baby will pick it’s gender.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha! I miss that show… Jonah!

          • BJFOHOHL says:
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            @Grey: everytime someone mentions their love of weird metal (my term) I think they are Jonah!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Or bumps their head on a doorframe

              • BJFOHOHL says:
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                @Grey: Now I want a Jonah t-shirt

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  “You’re not even your mom’s favorite Jonah, Jonah.”

  15. FrankGrimes says:
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    I’m already so tired of hearing about Judge and Stanton.
    I’d like to throw them both into the Mediterranean Sea
    like that Dude did to Ciro.

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        @Grey:
        Yes. Almost thru the first season.
        Btw if I chopped up some dude
        I’d still be your bff.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          We’d be even better friends if you chopped up some dude!

  16. Josh says:
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    Maybe I am a Judge homer, but…

    The first half where he hit in the 300s combined with his K rate falling and BB rate climbing in the second half when he was supposedly injured, has me ignoring all the downplay talk. I could be wrong on that but that’s what I remember from last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Josh: Guess we’ll see

  17. Willy Mo says:
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    Gyorko > Judge

  18. Lubes says:
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    10 team auction keeper league- keep 5 guys at last year’s prices (can only keep for 3 years). So far we have-
    Stanton- $33
    Sanchez- $11 (2nd year keeping)
    Corey Seager- $17 (3rd year keeping)
    Bellinger- $10

    Last spot do we go for-
    Wil Myers- $11 (2nd year keeping)
    Keuchel- $10
    or Nola- $10

    Thanks alot for doing all these- looking forward to the year.

  19. The Great Knoche says:
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    Me quoting me.

    “Finally agree on someone we will not own. Aaron Judge. Second half pitcher adjustments showed where he likely will be. Only caveat is with Giancarlo in lineup, they may not be able to make him swing at as many bad pitches depending on how lineup shakes out.

    Machado, Bellinger, Judge. Until they show ability to re-adjust approach to the adjustments that have been made against them (which wont be by March 24th) I wont be owning them where they are getting drafted.”

    Some people argued Judge adjusted to the adjustments with his crushing Sep/Oct. Maybe, but I don’t see a 46.9% HR/FB % as a regular happenstance regardless of how strong he is.

    I’m not saying he won’t hit 50 HRs and have 120 RBIs. He might, and we could be completely wrong on this, but I’m not drafting him in first two rounds when there’s the possibility of .220/35/90. I’m taking Rizzo, or Freeman, or JD or Lindor or Yelich before I am taking Judge.

    • Justin says:
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      @The Great Knoche:

      Yelich before Judge? Now that’s just crazy talk

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Nah, I ranked them both

  20. Willy Mo says:
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    I think its silly to love taking giancarlo in round 1 but hate taking judge round 2.

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @Willy Mo:

      Stanton .281 AVG – .288 BABIP – 23% K Rate -59 HR
      Judge.284 AVG – .357 BABIP – 30% K Rate – 52 HR

      Not silly.

    • Pager24 says:
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      @Willy Mo: I don’t think so. Stanton is the much better player- not to mention he has like 6 yrs (or something) of MLB experience. It’s not like Judge isn’t immune to the sophomore slump. Judge never came close to putting up the numbers he did even in the minors, yea the power was always good, but never 50-60 homers a year power. I think pitchers will adjust to him. I think he still has a good year but 40-42 homers doesn’t seem unreasonable? I think you’ll regret it if you just assume Judge is the next Stanton

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Giancarlo is an easy 45+, .270 hitter… Judge is a 40+, .245 hitter

    • Cram It says:
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      @Willy Mo: I think your Yankee fandom is showing.

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Cram It: theres too many things to respond to. Overall the fantasy world is down on judge its proven in the comments. I see a 25 year old who was runner up mvp and could improve. Gl

        • Cram It says:
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          @Willy Mo: You’re not wrong to think that. As Grey opened with, it’s not the popular opinion. I don’t see that the masses are down on Judge. You have to expect some regression, and his 20ish ADP reflects that.

        • The Harrow says:
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          @Willy Mo: you forgot that 1 year ago exactly him and renfroe were ranked like nearly identically by about every prospector in the biz, or at least close. some were even higher on renfroe. neither has/had good hit tools.

  21. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    Agreed up until Yelich, but that’s just me. Won’t believe the power comes until the power comes.

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Grey: I’ve just heard a lot that his HRs will go up with the Brewers. If they do then I see him getting the big boost. If those HRs aren’t there and he is basically what he’s always been I’m not sure he’s worth the boost. So if his power is number improves then I’m a Believer.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I could see him being a 25/20 player… But his ceiling is only so high, have you seen him? He looks like he’d struggle to hit 20 HRs

          • Sweatpants Nation says:
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            @Grey: Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. He may get to 25 or he still ay only hit 15. And my original post was in response to The Great Knoche saying he’d take Rizzo, JD, Freeman, Lindor or Yelich over Judge. I think my post went out of order now that I look at it. I was just saying I’d take Judge over Yelich if it came down to choosing between those 2.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ah, gotcha… Yeah, 15 feels low now, when it didn’t feel low in Miami

              • Sweatpants Nation says:
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                @Grey: Probably. There is so much hype about him. He seems like a better real baseball player than fantasy so there is an overpay risk.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, thinking that too

  22. Random Collmenter says:
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    I was confusing how I worded that trade offer I asked u about yesterday. I meant:

    His Bellinger ($13) for all three of my guys: Ray ($7) + Eloy ($0, minors keeper) + Castillo ($3).

    Is that too steep? 6×6 roto with OPS and QS.

    Thanks man!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s a bit much

  23. dubjay says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Do you see a big difference between where you would draft GALLO, MIGGY, SMOAK and OLSEN in a keeper league? Or do you think that Gallo gets a big boost in that format. If he hits .240 I would grab him for sure. But the fear of the Mendoza line scares me off a bit. Im trying to decide between grabbing a pitcher or a 1B in this slot. Castillo, Mccullers, Rivero and Giles are still out there as well. Pretty sure 2 of the 1B would make it back to me in the next round(round 11)of our keeper league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I don’t think they change dramatically in a keeper… I’d prolly boost Olsen up a little, but he’s still behind those three… I like McCullers a lot, and Castillo…

      • dubjay says:
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        @Grey:
        Went McCullers. Gallo went a pick before me.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s all good

  24. Big League Wood says:
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    Hey Coach,

    Second auction completed Saturday night and I tried to stay within the Grey instructed “no player over $30” strategy Missed Puig as OF 3 (insert Gardner) due to technical issues, but I like this team.

    The Lindor purchase changed my strategy going in, but loved that price.

    Thoughts? 15 Team and weekly FAB…

    Castillo $9, Suzuki $2
    Abreu $23, Rendon $23, Smoak $8
    Lindor $26, Peraza $6, Seminen $5
    Springer $26, J Upton $19, Gardner $10, Mancini $11, Peralta $1
    Longoria (DH) $3
    Reserves: B Phillips, H Perez, Bautista, Moran

    DeGrom $29, C Mart $24, Gray $9, Wacha $4, Ryu $2, Peacock $1, J Garcia $1, Colome $11, Morrow $7
    Reserves: Skaggs, Cotton, Bedrosian

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Team looks excellent, looks like a shallower league than 15 team, which is a huge compliment… Nice job!

      • Big League Wood says:
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        @Grey:

        Thanks. It was an NFBC league and the room was on the top dollar guys early and often. I was the last drafter off the board when Lindor fell. Owe you a drink when I cash !!!.

        ALso, agree on Judge. I would rather take K Davis or even push dollars to a guy like E5 in the CI or Util.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, totally… Hopefully you win!

      • Peacecoast says:
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        @Grey: oh how we all dream of getting this response from Grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          *wavy lines, on comments at Razzball* Worst dream sequence ever!

  25. OldMilwaukeePounders says:
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    Grey –

    Dope post! I was screaming about this to my friends last year during the second half all while Judge was helping me win a title. I actually just traded Judge in my h2h keeper league and it felt great.

    One question for today; keeper league, H2H, 12 team, 5×5. My keepers currently are: Trea, Mookie, Bellinger, Rizzo, Springer. Would you trade Springer for Jose Ramirez?

    Thanks, Homie!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, Judge helped me win a title last year too, but this is not the year to own him…. I’d hold Springer, Trea is speed first, and Mookie is some speed too, don’t need Jo-Ram too

  26. asdfasdf says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey, wouId love some keeper advice please.

    2 keepers, NL-only, H2H-points. Here are my options, listed with the round that I lose in this year’s draft, and their points from last year to give you a sense of our league scoring system

    Round 3–Jacob DeGrom (640 points)
    Round 4–Daniel Murphy (530 points)
    Round 5–Edwin Encarnacion (595 points)
    Round 10–Eric Thames (470 points)
    Round 10–Tommy Pham (520 points in just 444 AB)
    Round 10–Carlos Santana (530 points)
    Round 10–Jon Gray (335 points in 110 IP)
    Round 10–Corey Knebel (660 points)
    Round 10–Jameson Taillon

    It feels bad keeping a closer, but Knebel was the 5th most valuable pitcher in the league last year under our points system, and at a cost of round 10 I lean towards keeping him. Do you agree? I asked RickyBobby and he suggested Pham as the 2nd keeper, and I do love Pham, but of course the eye issues are scary and I think I recall you don’t love him. Any advice? thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d keep Knebel in your league if closers are worth that much

      • asdfasdf says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Yes, thank you, I agree but I am more in need of some help with the 2nd keeper, which is harder to decide

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          deGrom

  27. Peacecoast says:
    (link)

    so I’m keeping Dee, do you thing he will end up on my roster as 2b/mi or OF? It may affect my draft strategy in later rounds.

    Looking at Machado in 1st round, obviously he will likely move over to SS once he can.

    Also have my eye on Myers. Another question there as to where he gives the most value, 1b or OF?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      MI — Myers is more of a CI or 2nd OF

  28. Daniel Moran says:
    (link)

    What do you name of the recent signing of Lomo combined with the allegations for Sano? Are you still as high on him as your Yahoo Thank You ranking?

  29. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
    (link)

    If you consider Judge to be a .260/45 player, I’d be inclined to agree with you. He could even hit .240 in a bad luck year. But comparing him to Gallo is a bit extreme. A 6% difference in K% is huge. And Gallo is an extreme fly ball hitter (54.2% FB%). Since 2013, there have only been 8 qualified hitters (min 300 PA) who have produced seasons with a FB% > 50% and a K% > 30%. The batting averages ranged from .174 (Zunino ’15) to .238 (Rasmus ’15). Seven of the eight players had averages of .227 or lower.

    For the record, I think both players are overvalued. Judge is very risky where he’s going, and Gallo is best left for OBP leagues. He’s a huge average drain in 5×5 leagues.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m gonna choose to stop with “inclined to agree with you”… Kidding…. I hear ya on Gallo, but I think Gallo and Judge can be within .20 of each other on AVG with most of their other stats very similar… But this isn’t as much about Gallo being a great bargain, as being Judge is overvalued…

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: The only disconnect for me is that Judge might be a true .260-.265 hitter, while Gallo is probably a .215-.220 guy. 40-50 points is a big gap. I can dig the Judge/Gallo argument as long as you apply the same reasoning to Bellinger and Story. Very similar comps in terms of respective profiles and differences in ADP.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Judge’s 2nd half last year tells me he can be a true .245 hitter… Last 2nd half was extreme, but what if not *that* extreme for a guy that Ks that much?

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @Grey: It was about a 6-7 week swoon. Likely combo of the shoulder injury and pitchers adjusting to him. But he adjusted right back in Sept, bum shoulder or not. I think his numbers against lefties were flukishly low too. Should see some improvement there.

            The K gap between him and Gallo isn’t all that different from the one between Bellinger and Story. Very similar batted ball profiles, and Story plays in Coors. Pass on Bellinger and target Story then?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I guess there could be a case made for that, but I’m not making that case… maybe if Bellinger disappoints this year and Story bounces back, I’ll make that case next year and be a year behind… there is something to Story being injured last year and rusty…

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Just noting the parallels between the Judge/Gallo and Bellinger/Story comps. I’m generally not a huge fan of players with those kinds of profiles, but there might be a buy low opportunity with Story this year. K-rate scares me, but there’s talk of him seeing some time in the cleanup spot this year. Could see rolling the dice on him with the right roster construction.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I like Story this year for his price, I should’ve been more off him last year, too many unknowns… Would it be shocking if we got to May and we were saying Judge’s shoulder was healed, but by playing a month of games it’s now hurting again?

  30. Padre says:
    (link)

    Grey, had our 12 team Standard H2H Draft last night. Followed your rankings to the dot. Love the results!

    C-Alfaro
    1-Abreu
    2-Schoop
    3-Machado
    SS-Turner
    OF-Bellinger
    OF-Puig
    OF-Eaton
    UT-Moustakas
    UT-Bogaerts

    SP-Nola
    SP-Bauer
    RP-T Williams
    RP-Montgomery
    P-Wood
    P-Gray
    P-Wacha
    P-Gausman
    P-Morton
    P-Corbin

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bauer! I love the team too, that offense is crazy solid, you have a potential 35-homer guy as your UTIL and a potential top 4 SS

  31. Justin says:
    (link)

    Marwin Gonzalez, what am I missing here? Got a draft coming up and looking to target him around 100. His ADP is around 125-160. Seems like a multi-positional, in his prime, on the best team in MLB, steal…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I like him too for his price… Evan Gattis or Marwin? Marwin all day… He can actually play around the field and appears undervalued…

      • Justin says:
        (link)

        Marwin over Chris Taylor, blasphemy I know, but that’s what I’m thinking. Marwin over Sano? Yeah, I’m going there. Marwin over Jonathan Schoop? WHAT?!?! YES I IS!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Marwin over Altuve!

          • Justin says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Lets not go that far

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Sorry, I got carried away

              • Sweatpants Nation says:
                (link)

                @Grey: It’s gonna be an interesting mix in Houston this year cuz teh Astros seem like they want to give Fisher reps. Marwin is useful since he can play all over and give guys partial days off to DH (Gattis loses ABs) but he may lose ABs from not playing left field as much.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Maybe with Fisher, but I’ve heard how Reed’s gonna be ABs for the last two years and we see where that went

                  • Sweatpants Nation says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: True.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Got any questions for podcast? Recording right now

      • Justin says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        But Eddie Rosario over all of them

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You’re messing, but Rosario’s gonna be great this year, watch

          • Justin says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            I’m not. I heart Rosario

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I heart Rosario more

              • Justin says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Would you draft Rosario over Eric Hosmer? I would, that is how much and how deep my love burns

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Wow, you are threatening my Rosario love!

                  • Justin says:
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                    @Grey:

                    In fairness, you stoked the flames.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Rosario is our flame, and we are but moths

  32. knucks says:
    (link)

    Never played in a keeper in all the years I’ve played, but considering taking over this 10 team 6×6 roto squad. Keep 5 forever, with no round penalty or anything like that. I have the 4th pick in the snake draft after keepers are assigned and will prob end up following up in a few weeks, whenever the hell I find out who will be available to draft. Roster sizes are 34 players (24 start, 10 bench).

    I think I know who I’m keeping, but wanted to solicit some advice from the Razz fam. Here is the current roster. There are plenty names here I’m obvi not even considering. Whatdayins think, which 5 to keep?

    C- G Sanchez
    1B- Gallo
    2B- Altuve
    SS- Xander B
    3B- Machado
    MI- Semien
    CI- Beltre
    OF- Judge
    OF- Springer
    OF- Odubel
    OF- Marwin
    OF- Nick Williams
    UTIL- Odor
    UTIL- Starlin Castro

    SPs- Keuchel, Mccullers, Robbie Ray, Pomeranz, Bauer, Luke Weaver, Berrios

    RPs- Who cares, I’m not keeping any… Will draft a closer or two and then we have daily lineup locks, so will just stream for Holds/Ks with other RPs

    Hitting : R/HR/RBI/SB/OBP/SLG
    Pitching: QS/K/ERA/WHIP/Saves/Holds

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Altuve, Machado, Springer, Ray, Judge

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Though Ray or Sanchez is tough

        • knucks says:
          (link)

          @Grey: For me it was a toss up between Ray/Bauer/Sanchez as my 5th guy. Though I just found out that there is trades of players for draft picks and what not. So I’m checking in now and emailing on what the cost of Trea Turner is with the owner. Might follow-up today if he gets back to me. Would you trade my first pick (#4) and any of these guys on my roster if Turner is available? I guess the question would be who would you NOT pair with the #4 pick for Turner.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Which guy plus 4 does the other guy want?

            • knucks says:
              (link)

              @Grey: He hasn’t responded yet. But I’d offer any of them except for Altuve, Machado, Springer.

              Would you not give him Judge plus the #4 pick for Turner?

              I could end up keeping Altuve, Machado, Springer, Treat and Ray. And I think I need to change my pants after typing that. I don’t care about not having a 1st round pick with a squad like that.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Who will be available with #4 pick? Any ideas?

            • knucks says:
              (link)

              @Grey: It would essentially mean not having a 6th round pick I guess? Maybe I’m crazy. Not use to these keeper decisions.

              • AL KOHOLIC says:
                (link)

                @knucks: i like it for you

                • knucks says:
                  (link)

                  @AL KOHOLIC: Thanks Al. I’m gonna start by offering him Gary Sanchez + Judge for Treat and Player X. His keeper situation is kind of ugly so I’m hoping I can unload a guy like Sanchez that I wouldn’t end up keeping and keep my draft pick. That’s the plan for now, we’ll see what this guys response is.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                So, no Archer or someone like him?

                • knucks says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: Not quite sure yet, but I would imagine someone like that will be around. There will be 50 players kept. So the idea of losing out on the “first round” or first available leftovers is sounding less exciting the more I sit and think about it.

                  I’ve offered him Sanchez/Judge for TreaTurner and will just go from there.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Judge and someone like Archer for Turner works for me

                    • knucks says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: He just responded that my offer of Judge/Sanchez for his Turner/Archie Bradley (who I would not keep) is very close. But we both just joined the league and he stated he would like to digest the settings/etc first prior to pulling the trigger. Would be psyched if he agrees to something like that without me having to give up my first round pick.

                      By Archer, you mean if he is the type of guy around during the first round (which is the 4th overall pcik I mentioned trading away). Just want to make sure I understand you here.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, if he’s the type guy around in 1st round… So you’re giving Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Chris Archer for Trea?

                    • knucks says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: No, I would keep the draft pick for the first round (so not giving away a Chris Archer type). Trading two players for Trea Turner with no picks involved. And then keeping Altuve, Trea, Machado, Springer, Ray. Could then take whoever isn’t kept with the #4 overall pick in the first round.

                      It just means that Gary Sanchez wouldn’t be there for me to grab back at pick 4, assuming that the guy trading me Turner keeps both Sanchez/Judge (he will). And I’m fine with that. He sounds like he is leaning towards accepting but will be taking a day or two to think it offer.

                      Anyways, it sounds like itll be a bit before he agrees or counters. I’m sure I’ll rail about it then.

                      The War Room that was posted is phenomenal. Great tool.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ah…Okay, yeah, that sounds fine if he goes for it… I use Rudy’s War Room, so I know how valuable they are… Glad you can use it!

  33. CoreyII says:
    (link)

    NL Only auction league, 10 teams, $260, 5×5.

    Can keep 2 out of $26 Freeman, $16 Story, $4 Alex Wood. Which 2 to keep?? It’s so hard to let any of them go.

    Other keepers are $13 Ray, $17 Ozuna, $4 Margot.

    Thanks!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Freeman, Wood

  34. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Hey Razzball commenters…there’s still one spot left in the prestidigitous FCL/RCL. If you like drafting early closers and catchers, this is the league for you.

    Reply here for details.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I don’t think people realize how fun this league’s gonna be, and by May they’ll wish they were in it

      • FrankGrimes says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Or by May they will be like
        WTF! I can’t pick up anyone fast enough
        and these guys have made 250 moves already!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Hahaha, true

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        @Grey: #shittacos.

        For not personally knowing the people in the league we’ve got some great characters and some great FBB players. And with the new. At feature on Fantrax, Oh Baby it’ll be fantastic.

        Pure entertainment

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Agreed on all fronts

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: Weve got a certifiable group of Razz regulars.

      Oaktown
      Dr Noisewater
      Grimey
      Big Yabu
      Nick the dick
      Truss
      Old School Brother
      RCL VIN
      Knoche
      Knucks
      Some new guy….

      If you want a league where it’s highly competitive and whoever you want to pickup is always gone before you get him this is the league for you!

  35. ERad says:
    (link)

    I feel like you’ve been toying with a Schmohawk post for Judge for the entire offseason, and finally woke and was like F it and his tooth gap.

    As a Yankee homer and stakeholder in Judge in a keep forever league at a crazy discount, I’m fully invested in #99 – but you’d be a fool not to realize the possibility of Judge bottoming out this year.

    The shoulder was clearly an issue all 2nd half – and while post HR Derby effects seem to be anecdotal – the prevailing thought is the combo of two propelled him into his slump. It was pretty brutal watching him wave at slider after slider, but he’s made adjustments at each level – so no reason he can’t figure out how to lay off that outside junk.

    He was essentially crowned Babe Ruth by the ASBreak rolled around last year by the media and felt like he had to carry the entire city of New York – which shouldn’t be the case year. Dude hopefully can relax and go back to hitting massive dongs.

    Basically it seems all the arguments in support of Judge seem to be circumstantial while all the numbers indicate otherwise. But I’ve always been a circumcision type of guy, so I guess we’ll just have to wait and see!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      In a keeper, or for right price, Judge is fine, and likely a 40-homer, .240-50 guy…. However, like I said below (maybe above), would it shock anyone if we got to May and after a full month of games, his shoulder starts barking again? What if pitchers throw him nothing but sliders?

      • ERad says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Honestly, he was always supposed to be a .240-50 guy – that first half just propelled him into a different stratosphere. However, players have always outperformed their projections – no reason he can’t stabilize around .260-70 or maybe even better.

        His ADP right now definitely carries the biggest risk/reward of any player – if I was going into a draft with an unbiased opinion – I’d probably pass and let someone else gamble. Which I suppose is the point of this post.

        But as a guy that owns him in a keeper league, as long as he hits 40+ HRs and takes his walks – everything else is gravy.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Going into last year, people forget he was supposed to be a .225 hitter and exactly Gallo (not saying you forget, but more the royal we people)

          • The Harrow says:
            (link)

            @Grey: yep, .220-.240 max. renfroe and him ranked nearly identically where ever you looked.

  36. True and Correct says:
    (link)

    Smoak v. Mancini ? I’m in the 10th round in a 15 team slow draft. No 1st basemen yet, and after Mancini and Smoak, Bour/Carpenter and Bell await.
    I like Mancini qualifying at o.f., particularly after drafting Acuna at #118. (I’ll need an extra o.f.).
    I did read your high ranking of Mancini……

  37. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Hey Albondigas. Saw you’re picking 7th in the NFBC. I think that’s a pretty good spot. I’m at 9 which leaves me kind of hanging on how the first couple of rounds go. Could have things fall very nicely, but pretty sure I’m going to end up reaching for some guys if it’s more of a Razzball draft and less of an NFBC typical.

    Syndergaard threw 6 triple digit fastballs in his first inning of his first spring training game today.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I saw Noah K up Altuve pretty nastily… Yeah, I got 7th… I’m likely looking at “How much do I still trust Goldy in the humidor?” with my first pick… Then you’re looking at “I can’t believe Goldy fell to me at 9″…

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I’m curious to see where Kershaw goes. If it’s straight Razzers kicking the pitching can down the road then I’m probably looking at him. There’s no change Giancarlo gets through you at 7 so I can kiss that daydream away.

        Goldy is a tough call man. Derek Carty put out a piece on the humidor effect that has everybody running scared. It’d be easier if he hadn’t dropped 14 SBs from his 2016 total. If he somehow gave you 2016’s 24 HRs and 2017 18 bags.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Kershaw will be there for you, is my guess… He won’t last much past 15th overall… People are razzers, but not everyone listens to me, as I’ve seen from past years doing this league and RCLs to an extent… The problem with Goldy is there’s suddenly question marks, no one wants that with their first pick, but I could see taking him with the 1st pick… Is 25/12/.300 with 100+ runs and RBIs that awful? I don’t think he’s going to kill anyone’s team, unless he gets hurt, and anyone can get hurt…

          • The Great Knoche says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I bet Kershaw goes before you pick at 7

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Really? I don’t think so, unless you know bc you’re taking him…

              • The Great Knoche says:
                (link)

                @Grey: nah. But he went 3rd in LABR so someone might look at that too.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Ah…Yeah, I wouldn’t fault someone for going with an SP in the top 10…Yes, I’m partially saying that so someone reads this and takes him high in our league…

                  • The Great Knoche says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: take Scherzer and Sale top 10 too.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I hope so in our league!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: He threw 11 triple digiters on the day. Please stay healthy all year!

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @OaktownSteve: @Cram It: Jeez. Hasn’t he learned to dial it back a bit in the early going? Maxing out this early is rarely a good idea.

        • BJFOHOHL says:
          (link)

          @Big Magoo: That was the first thing I thought too. Noah is too dumb for his own good

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @BJFOHOHL: The evidence seems to support that conclusion, unfortunately

            • BJFOHOHL says:
              (link)

              @Big Magoo: I would hope the new manager would teach him the Sale way

  38. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Also, I think I might be backpedaling my anti-Bauer stance. I was reading how he’s added a split change. If that’s a good pitch for him, it could really change the dynamic. As was mentioned in the post where I argued against him, he does seem pretty relentless in his quest to get better.

    I still have questions about the command of any of his pitches and as a result the high pitch per AB and the inability to attack the corners. I dunno. Spider sense doesn’t like him, but sense sense is arguing with spider sense.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Because of one good spring training game you’re throwing away your anti-Bauer stance? C’mon, don’t get on the Bauer bandwagon now, it’s getting too crowded!

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Nah…it wasn’t the spring game. I read this really interesting piece about how he worked with driveline baseball to develop the split change. So that kind of got me interested. Then I got to thinking how that one pitch if successful could change his attack. If he can disguise it well, he can attack more with his fastball, pitch backwards and get ahead in counts sometimes.

        I’m not on the bandwagon. I probably won’t own him this year. I’ll take a “show me” year with him. Just saying, the weeble is awobble on my naysaying.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I hear ya… I think the ‘show me’ year was last 2nd half. He figured out how to pitch then, and will take it forward… All the narratives are telling me this is the year for Bauer, and next year he will be a top 15 SP w/out much thought…

  39. ichirosan says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey,

    H2H 16 man dynasty league. I have a big hole at SS. I was offered Orlando Arcia for Derek Fisher + Mitch Keller (both locked into my major league roster, before keepers lock). Yay or nay?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Take Arcia

  40. Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
    (link)

    16 team keep 6. OPS, QS, hits, holds added 7×7 h2h. yahoo standard so only 3 OF, no CI/MI.
    goldy/arenado/thor for sure but what’s next best 3: a.wood/segura/odor/dr. castellanos/pollock/sunday santana. usually a 2nd pitcher probably wouldn’t be in play, but QS and segura/odor looking worse than they did last year at this time maybe wood.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wood, Segura, Pollock

  41. I am the Walrus says:
    (link)

    14 team dynasty. I need 6 SP’s. Pls give me your assessment of SP.
    Do you think I took on too much risk with Clevinger and Weaver not guaranteed spots and Hill always hurt?
    C.Martinez, Quintana, Hill, Weaver, Gio, Clevinger. (bench Newcomb and Glasnow).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nope, not too much risk, I like the staff minus Gio, but you know that from my rankings

  42. Cram It says:
    (link)

    Your NFBC draft start Wednesday too? Let’s get it on! I only recognize Razz writer Son, outside of Rudy. Unless these other guys change their team names from their last name to something more recognizable…

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: Ya know, I’m looking at the KDS Choice Order. I had 14, which I guess means I was 14th on the priority list for my draft slot preference. Guess that has a lot of weight on why I got my second to last choice.

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: you have Backdoor Sliders AKA Big Yabu in yours?

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @The Great Knoche: I know him. I actually brought him into my hometown league. Speaking of, do you want in? $100 entry, roto, auction draft, 5×5. Looking for a 12th. Draft is Sunday March 25th, 6 PM EST

          • The Great Knoche says:
            (link)

            @Cram It: So hes not in your NFBC? Wonder if they had enough for a third league.

            Thanks, but I’ll pass tapped out. 3 RCLs, 2 NFBCs, Big Money Hometown league, little money hometown league +JBs old league. I would be donating that money in a league with you and Mitch and some other solid players with that little time to spend on it.

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: my KDS slot was 5 and I got 3rd pick. I was kind of shocked there

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Oh, maybe that’s why we all got our last pick… I got 7th, and didn’t really want Goldy…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I thought it starts tomorrow, is it Wednesday?

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Ours is Wednesday. I’d take Goldy at 7

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, I’ll take Goldy too, but I’d prefer all the guys I ranked above him, some more than others… Maybe Bryce will fall! You’re right, ours is Wednesday too…

          • Gigorilla says:
            (link)

            see you then Grey — I am right before you and looking at Odor, Franco, and Deshields. LOL

  43. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
    (link)

    Merrifield went deep twice today. Dee jacked one too. Mazara with a steal. Hope springs eternal.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Move them up your draft board!

    • BJFOHOHL says:
      (link)

      @Big Magoo: Kemp donged the other day too. He’s totally BSOHT

  44. Sweatpants Nation says:
    (link)

    Renfroe just hit a 450ft bomb to straightaway center. Monster shot. On pace to hit 50 this year. And looks like his BSOHL. It’s spring training. It’s Skaggs. But still… Never mind. Christian Villanueva just hit one completely out of the park. It’s spring. Its Skaggs. Skaggs really sucks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I saw… Someone likes to hit lefties

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      BSOHL!

  45. Puddle Stomp says:
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    First time reader (my rookie season, obvi). I just read the pitcher pairings article, does your advise to draft “Shruggle, IP, IP, Donuts, Condoms, St. Bernard” (as the order is classically called) change since my league is 14-team 5×5 with 7 pitching slots (3xSP, 2xRP, 1xP), 8 hitters, and 1 UTIL?

    Is the general drafting goal to get the pitchers that fit those categories as late as possible.. ie. keep taking hitters until those categories start to run?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      5×5? Nah, I’d go with same pitcher pairings… You can draft bench arms, so that’s where the other SPs would go… You should be aiming to take as many solid bats as you can, while still getting a respectable staff as I outline in the pairings… So, if you can wait until pick 180 overall to draft a Shruggle, that’s fine, as long as you get yours…

      • Puddle Stomp says:
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        @Grey: Would you rather draft in an earlier round to get your prefered pitcher from the tier (Nola) or wait until the scraps of the tier are left (Bauer)?

  46. Uncle Ernie says:
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    Hey Grey. Thanks as usual for the spring insights. Great reading. I just traded for Hamilton even though I don’t like him. I got him because he’s getting $3 salary this year(he was dropped to waivers last year and claimed for $3 so that’s his salary this year)since steals are down this year I figured he was a steal. No pun intended! Now the tricky part who do I not keep if I keep him. Serverino $4 or Murphy $7 or not keep Hamilton at all. Our league has 5 bench spots so stashing him would be easy. 8 teamer league. Thanks Grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Murphy

  47. wash says:
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    In a dynasty points league I was offered Kyle Schwarber and Ben Gamel for Stephen Piscotty and Jake Bauers. What do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Take Schwarber

  48. Cram It says:
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    @Grey: Ours is Wednesday. I’d take Goldy at 7

    • Gigorilla says:
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      he is mine at #5

  49. Judge’s mighty Sept/Oct after his post- HR Derby funk have me believing. 2nd in HR, 1st in R, 2nd in RBI, 1st in BB%, K% back to “normal” levels, .311 AVG, .283 BABIP, Hard % back up to 50=point-something from mid-thirties. There’s a lot to like about his ability to adjust to his post-All Star malady.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, guess we’ll see

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @mrhouston: there’s also a lot to who he played against. @Baltimore @ Texas vs Baltimore vs KC @TB vs TB

      Not exactly a murderers row of pitching staffs. Especially in september when they don’t care.

  50. Cohen says:
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    Grey, draft strategy question, i have 9 pick in 12 teamer, been drafting Machado/Bellinger then coming back with Rendon and Hosmer with 3 rd and 4 th picks. If i did end up drafting that i would put Bellinger in OF, Machado SS, and Hosmer at 1st. Do u like what im doing or is this just stupid.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like it!

      • Cohen says:
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        @Grey: Thanks Grey, this is my 4 th year following you.Two Championships and a 4th place. Thanks for all the work!

  51. rotisserie.jedi says:
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    Well, you’ve done it now Grey. You’ve really gone and done it. They’ll be coming for you, most likely at dawn…the Yankee Posse. I’ll give you this though, you’ve got some big fat grey ones to take this stance, Judge is still a popular hyped-up fantasy pick in round TWO. Anyway, as much as I enjoy your unique insight, I’ve gotta say, it warms my cockles when we agree on stuff too.

    He’s been on my DND list since last summer.

    Just remember, fantasy-rankings mobs are basically mole-people: they don’t see very well and tend to react more to motion. So when they come for you, if you can get Cougs to make a break for it…..

  52. Daro says:
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    Who has a better career Adam Dunn or Aaron Judge? They seem quite similar.

  53. Barking Ducks says:
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    I’m keeping both Judge and Gallo in a BA/OPS keeper league. Do I draft a bunch of Joe Panik types to stay afloat in BA, or should I just punt BA and crush OPS?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      DJ LeMahieu!

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