I know the consensus opinion of the worldwide web aka internet aka 4chan aka Russian bots on Twitter. Saying Aaron Judge is overrated is not going to be a popular opinion. I may as well go to a Kiwanis club on vet night and tell them they fought in The Great War so we could now have Lady Doritos, then tell them I refuse to eat Lady Doritos until we have non-binary Doritos. “This Spicy Not-Ya-Sex chip is delicious.” That’s me eating non-binary Doritos. On the bright side, finally, we can do a baby reveal party with Doritos. That would be as popular as calling Aaron Judge overrated. Walking into a Korean spa and telling the owners I was there to check for hidden cameras would be greeted more enthusiastically. Standing behind the counter at Chipotle, announcing there’s no more avocados, would be greeted more warmly. Saying Aaron Judge is overrated is a real pickle. However, for Christmas, I got a sous vide machine and I’ve made pickles every weekend for the last six weeks, so I drink up your pickle! I drink it up! Wow, that sounds very wrong. Keeping with the recurring theme that wasn’t recurring until right now, Aaron Judge is butter pickles. Could be sweet, but I don’t like sweet pickles. I like them shizzes sour. Then again, I’m sour on Judge, so I should be all right with him; I’m not, though. So, why is Aaron Judge overrated and what can we expect from him for 2018 fantasy baseball?
One name, Joey Gallo. Take me out of the equation and my projections. But before I go, all I need is this chair!…And this ashtray, this paddle game and this remote control and that’s all I need. Our Steamer projections give these two lines for Judge and Gallo: 93/37/95/.254/7 and 82/38/93/.227/6. Gallo has better eligibility too, but position scarcity-schmarcity. So 11 runs, 2 RBIs and one steal. Can we all agree that’s a push? Okay, a few people are not raising their hands, so we don’t all agree, but enough of us do. The big difference is average. So we’ll drill down to that, you frackers! In the 2nd half last year, Judge hit .228 and Gallo hit .229. Average is fickle. Everyone should know this. Yeah, supposedly Judge was dealing with an injury last 2nd half, but that doesn’t excuse a 30.7% K% on the year. Judge is not a guy who is going to .284 again like he did last year. He’s more likely to hit .220. Not saying Gallo is going to hit .280, far from it, but these guys are a high/low BABIP away from being two peas in a pod, or if you’re reading this while wearing a diaper, two pees and poop. BABIP bit (stutterer!) predicated on hard contact, so one guy’s Hard Contact was 46.3% and one guy’s was 45.3%. I’ll bore you with “FOOLED YA!” and just say Gallo’s is the higher percentage. Gallo’s homers averaged a further distance too, but, ya know, doesn’t matter. Finally, having Giancarlo, mi novio, helping Judge is a fun anecdotal positive, but it’s just that. Anecdotal. Unless Giancarlo is going to bat twice in the lineup, once as himself and once wearing a Judge shirsey, it’s not going to change Judge’s bottom line dramatically from last year. He’s still going to get a diet of offspeed stuff, especially that slider he bites on. Judge was even worse on sliders last year than Gallo, whose swing starts each time in 2016 and travels to present day. What matters is Judge and Gallo are insanely similar. Judge has hype, though, that’s for sure. You can’t enter La Guardia airport with an 8-foot, 500-pound dummy dressed in a Judge jersey without having tourists ask you for a picture with it. Trust me, I tried! What, I don’t want to foment rumors without testing my theories. So, feel free to draft Judge if you like overrated mashers, but if I want 40 homers and a potential .240 average, I’ll wait 100 picks later.