How many Pollocks does it take to hit 20 homers, steal 39 bases and bat .315?  200 billion Pollocks.  One, A.J. Pollock, to hit, and 199,999,999,999 Pollocks to run real fast to make the earth spin.  Pollock’s year in fifteen-after-twenty couldn’t have went any better.  On our Player Rater, he was the 2nd best outfielder behind Bryce Harper and in front of Mike Trout.  Yes, that Mike Trout.  The fish oiliest of them all.  If you owned Pollock last year, you are a Serbian who purchased a Polish person at a flea market or you are a fantasy baseballer that enjoyed one of the best seasons of recent memory.  Either way, you’d be more than happy with the Pollock’s output.  Value-wise, things couldn’t have been much better.  When I called him a sleeper last year, I foresaw great things, but even I couldn’t have imagined greatness that hadn’t been achieved by a Pollock since Ivan Putski.  That’s why it’s real sucky that we’re not all drafting for 2015 again.  Think of the advantage we’d have knowing what players would do!  (Sadly, if we got together today and drafted a 12-team league for last year, eleven of us would still lose.  Talk about depressing.  Even more depressing, all twelve people drafting would think they’d win easily.)  This is one of the biggest mistakes people make each year.  Forget Aaron Hicks or Adam Eaton, let’s all draft guys that were good last year.  I mean, how wrong can we go with that?  Honestly, you won’t go that wrong, but you won’t go that right either.  It’s a good way to find yourself right to the middle of your league with Malcolm and Monie Love.  Anyway, what can we expect from A.J. Pollock for 2016 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

Let’s break him down one stat at a time from his line last year of 111/20/76/.315/39.  111 runs is not entirely ridiculous.  It’s not entirely repeatable either.  Last year, he had 673 PAs.  That’s more PAs than Michael Bay had on his last movie, but shy of James Cameron on Avatar.  It was only 23rd in the major leagues last year, and, with Ender gone, Pollock will have less competition for everyday at-bats.  That doesn’t exclude injuries happening, but I’m not going to say, “This guy will get injured and miss time,” that’s a cop out, which is bad, but not as bad as Cop Land or Cop & 1/2.  Still, Pollock was third in the league in runs, that’s asking a lot.  101 runs would’ve been tenth in the league and that seems fair.  Next up: homers.  Here’s where I have some issues.  Nine of his homers were Just Enough, and the average distance on his homers was 398.7 feet.   That’s in the bottom third of the league for guys who hit at least 18 homers.  It’s not obscenely low, but he could lose three homers there easily.  More troubling, his Fly Ball rate was 29%.  Here’s some names around him for fly ball rate:  Alexei Ramirez, Kevin Kiermaier, Odubel Herrera, Gerardo Parra, Melky Cabrera, Alcides Escobar and Martin Prado.  Bunch of real boppers there, huh?  Know why those names give you the yawns?  Because they don’t hit the ball in the air enough to hit homers.  Pollock’s career HR/FB% is 10.1%.  If he hits 152 fly balls like last year with all 673 of those plate appearances, he will hit 15 homers.  Maybe he gets lucky on two more, but maybe he gets unlucky too and hits 13 homers.  Lowercase yay.  Next up, 76 RBIs.  Pollock hit 2nd last year more than leadoff.  This year, he’s penciled into the leadoff spot.  The top guy in all of the majors for RBIs last year batting leadoff was Mookie Betts with 69 RBIs.  Betts also doesn’t have the pitcher hitting in front of him for at least half the game.  Pollock will be lucky to get 60 RBIs.  Next up, a .315 average.  He hits the ball hard, a decent amount of line drives and has speed.  Not in the top 30 of the league for hard contact or line drives, but solid.  He dropped his Ks and upped his walks.  He makes a lot of contact with strikes (top 6 in the league), but doesn’t make nearly as much contact with balls outside of the strike zone (77th in the league) and will chase, so he has a flaw there that could be exposed.  For instance, Goldy makes contact on 67.5% of pitches outside of the strike zone and Pollock on 67.2%, but Goldy only swings at 23.1% of balls while Pollock swings at 30.8%.  I’d be lying if I thought this was a huge problem, but he feels closer to a .290 hitter.  Pollock can spray balls all around the field like his first name is Jackson, but the average is coming down.  Finally, his steals.  He’s a year older, 39 steals was his career high, and crazy high for the league.  It was the third most steals in the majors last year.  One nagging injury that has him playing but not running, cuts his steals.  He gets caught more often and sent less?  It cuts his steals.  He doesn’t get on base as much?  It cuts his steals.  Maybe David Peralta gets hurt and Pollock moves to the cleanup spot, will help his RBIs, won’t help his steals.  The pitcher gets on base more often in front of him and he won’t steal as much.  SAGNOF!  Steals ain’t got no face, i.e., don’t pay for steals, i.e., a platoon of Yasmany Tomas and Jarrod Dyson on your fantasy team could give you Pollock’s homers and steals.  All of this is to say, I’m not drafting Pollock, especially not at his current price tag, and even in Serbian flea markets this Pollock’s price tag is high.

288 Comments
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MB
MB
6 years ago

Hello Grey, in a 15 team roto dynasty league, is Kershaw enough in return for Cutch and Pineda?

Thanks

Jiggy Nits
Jiggy Nits
Reply to  MB
6 years ago

@MB: cutch is right above kershaw in greys top 20. add in pineda i say you ask for more…

Bammers
Bammers
6 years ago

Trade question for you in a 12 team standard scoring H2H dynasty league.

1 – Miggy Cabrera

2 – Felix Hernandez and Lucas Giolito

Which side do you take?

Jiggy Nits
Jiggy Nits
6 years ago

i traded pollock away in an NL only keeper two years ago and ive been salty since. thanks for this bit

keeper trade question.
NL only ROTO
which side do you like franco 1$ + bumgarner 27 OR yelich 16 + rizzo 36

thanks in advance

Slimcompoop
Slimcompoop
6 years ago

How goes it friend? It’s been a while, and I’m coaching HS playoff hoops at this point so not a lot of time, but starting to turn an eye towards our draft in two weeks.

I’m in a 10-Team, H2H, 6×6 scoring (OBS and SLG%) keeper league. I need to make a decision between keeping J.D. Martinez and Pollock. No need to mention pitching keepers, but I can keep 4 hitters and my other three are Arenado, Stanton, and McCutchen. I got trading possibilities with whomever I don’t keep out of “Just Dong” and Pollock. From your rankings and this post, I can gather that you like J.D. more than Pollock, but given who I’m already keeping and our league rules, would you maintain the same opinion?

xoxo

alps88
alps88
6 years ago

In a 12 team keeper league. 5X5 Auction draft
Is there anyone you would throw back and not keep
thanks for the help!
Piscotty $6
DJ LeMahieu $6
Burns $6
Lindor $6
Maikel Franco $6
Aaron Nola $6
Carlos Rodon $6
Sean Doolittle $16
Hector Rondon $16

jaysfan
jaysfan
6 years ago

Keeper question:

Carlos Rodon or Byron Buxton?

Same rounds, could keep for several more seasons. Thanks!

JB2
JB2
6 years ago

Helpful stuff Grey, you put ESPN to shame. I’m in a 12-team H2H, projecting 6 keepers.

My obvious keeps are Nolan, Starling, Jose Fernandez, and Gerrit Cole. Gotta keep 2 of C. Seager, Schwarbs , Salazar, Maikel Franco, Carlos Gomez, and Lindor.

Seager seems obvious, but I think I could get something nice for him and hang on to Lindor. Is Schwarbs worth the keep? Am I crazy to want to keep Maikel and Nolan? Or I could keep Salazar Slytherin and lock down pitching.

I wouldn’t trust any other Fantasy Master Lotharios with such life-altering questions.

Go Jaysss
Go Jaysss
6 years ago

With Mookie Betts also projected to lead off, does he hold the same concerns as Pollock relating to power numbers?? Or is it a different scenario in Boston (Stacked lineup, Fenway,… ) ?

Bwyce Hawpo
Bwyce Hawpo
6 years ago

Off topic trade advice…

My $31 Springer for $16 Polanco & $6 McCullers. Amounts are pre-draft keeper costs.

Which side?

Bwyce Hawpo
Bwyce Hawpo
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Awesome, thanks

Cram It
Cram It
6 years ago

Yay, I finally got into a keeper league. Only downside is it’s via taking over someone else’s shit team…and there’s only 9 offensive slots…and it’s a stupid points league. But I digress!

Do you think Piscotty has long term worthiness as, say, a top 12 1B or top 35 OF? Probably not right?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Cool. Thank you.

Mel
Mel
6 years ago

Considering a blockbuster trade. Please rank these 3 pairs of keepers (we get to keep them for as many years as we want). Goldy/JFern vs. Bryant/Arrieta vs. Machado/Correa

Thanks!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Mel
6 years ago

@Mel: M/C by a good amount…then G/F, B/A

Owen Simring
Owen Simring
6 years ago

Any goldendoodles at the dog show, Grey? They are the cutest mofos this side of Weehawken. But I can imagine the dog show elitists not granting entry to an unpure dog or whatever.

On a related note, why do you use HR/FB% and average HR distance as reasons for regression when it comes to Pollock but not Marte? I was excited to hear your answer on the podcast, but your reasoning relied heavily on that yelping hyena laugh. Not that I don’t enjoy it, I was just really looking forward to words.

Owen Simring
Owen Simring
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Marte and Pollock both had a HR/FB% 3-4% higher than career norm. Marte and Pollock both had a FB% 2.5-3.5% below career norm. I don’t mean to be obtuse (gets thrown in solitary for another 2 months), but I just don’t see any difference with regards to regression. Also are you not worried about Marte’s profile compared to Pollock. 28.7v33.8 hard hit% and 21.3v14.9 soft%.

Anthony
Anthony
6 years ago

Tough spot here, gotta keep 7 of the following players with their keeper cost in a standard scoring $260 budget auction roto league;
– Arenado $12
– Pollock 3
– Blackmon 6
– Arrieta 28
– Salazar 11
– Carrasco 17
– C. Davis 13
– Scherzer 38
– M. Franco 1
– Duda 1
– Brantley 4

I’m leaning towards keeping the first 7, anyone have any recommendations?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Anthony
6 years ago

@Anthony: I wouldn’t argue that too much. I could see Franco over Scherzer. $38 is a lot.

peacecoast
peacecoast
6 years ago

Grey

Wu Tang is for the Children

say it with me son

Bocephus
Bocephus
6 years ago

So, my conundrum this year: my last keeper is between Rd 13 Pollock and Rd 18 Cole.
H2H 10 team – already keeping Goldy, Harper, and Correa.

Pollock was so good for me last year, but do I keep him over Cole?

Thanks, Grey!

Jb
Jb
6 years ago

12 team 4×4 roto can keep up to 12 players(most teams have 6-8). 260 budget. I have 30$ scherzer and 24$ Grienke. I can keep or throw them back. Only other keepers are 23$ springer and7$ Salazar and 7$ Stroman. Should I keep one none or both??

jb
jb
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

do you like stroman in a no strikeout league

Stephen Jensen (SEA)
6 years ago

Gray–I know this site is no place for amateurs or fantasy hacks, but for all that is good and decent in this world, can you please add the team name with the players name at the start of your articles.

I’m in an AL-only league and live in an AL town, and don’t acknowledge the existence of the NL. So when I see posts about AJ Pollock, or some obscure NL prospect, I have to open a new web page and do a search on the players name to figure out who the hell he plays for before deciding if I care.

I’m really too lazy to do this, so I’m hoping you can save my limited brain capacity and make my fantasy reading dreams come true this season.

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  Stephen Jensen (SEA)
6 years ago

@Stephen Jensen (SEA): wow, for all the badgering cram does this guy got a pass?!

Eric Bateman
Eric Bateman
6 years ago

Hey Grey,

Quick question from someone that may be overvaluing Pollock. I’m in a 12 teamy league, its HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS. I currently have to decide on 4 keepers and each are assigned a round value for where they were drafted last (or that value is cut in half if you traded for them, i.e if player was selected in 12th rd but I traded for him his keeper value is a 6th rd pick this yr)

I won the league last year, and it’s a snake draft, so my options are as follows:
Stanton(2nd)
Betts(3rd)due to a trade
G.Cole(6th)
Pollock(6th)due to a trade
Springer(21st)
Sano(23rd)
Kluber(26th)

Which 4 would you select based on Rd value and my draft order? I was leaning, Stanton, Pollock, Springer and Sano, but I’m wondering if I’m still overvaluing Pollock in that scenario and/or if I should retain Betts or an arm like Kluber(since his pick value is so low). Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Eric Bateman
6 years ago

@Eric Bateman: I’d hate to see your example of a long question.

Stanton, Betts, Springer, Kluber.

Eric Bateman
Eric Bateman
Reply to  Cram It
6 years ago

@Cram It: ha, it started out short, but then I figured I needed to include specifics.

Eric Bateman
Eric Bateman
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Thanks Grey, seems like I was already on the right track, but your insight is greatly appreciated!

Eric Bateman
Eric Bateman
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: After listening to the podcast with you and JB, I’m surprised you didn’t suggest Betts in the 3rd over Pollock in the 6th. Too high for Betts, or just better value for Pollock in the 6th? And as fate would have it Sano is todays Schmohawk, but as a 23rd round pick, I suppose I shouldn’t be too concerned there. This process is always difficult for me with only 4 keepers…sigh.

noah
noah
6 years ago

Be honest: you looked at his PECOTA prediction, wrote a column justifying its projections, then altered them slightly so it would be a bit less obvious. Yes?

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
6 years ago

Sounds like AJP is this year’s Brantley.

Trying to save some salary in my keeper league without giving up too much.

Would you trade your $25 Abreu and $20 Blackmon for a $30 Rizzo and $4 Cain sugar?

Thanks!

herschel
herschel
6 years ago

@Grey: weekly roto. which combo do you like better? arrieta and a 9th round pick or g. cole and a 4th rounder?

thanks.

herschel
herschel
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: 12 team league and i have the 12th pick (37th overall). we are allowed 2 keepers per team taken in the 4th round or later, so taking keepers into account, it is around cole/j-fer in your top 100. i am keeping arenado and debating between arrieta in the 4th of xander in the 9th. the leaves me two options:

A) keep arenado and arrieta and grab xander in the 3rd (losing a 4th round pick but gaining a 9th rounder)

or

B) keep arenado and xander and grab someone from the cole tier in the 3rd and hope one of braun/cespedes/heyward fall to grab in the 4th (losing a 9th rounder here)

herschel
herschel
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: gracias.

OldMilwaukeePounders
OldMilwaukeePounders
6 years ago

Grey,

I asked you your opinion on my keeper situation last week, but I’ve had some recent developments via trade and would value your opinion greatly. 12 team, H2H, 5 keepers.

I was set to go with Rizzo, Edwin, Upton, Betts, Sano. However, I was able to swing a deal for George Springer. So now my keeper pool is Rizzo, Edwin, Upton, Betts, Springer, Sano, Cespedes, Blackmon, Polanco.

It should be a no-brainer to go with Rizzo, Edwin, Upton, Betts, Springer, right? Which of the remaining group (Sano, Cespedes, Blackmon, Polanco) would you keep around for emergency freak spring training injury purposes? I am trying to dangle the non-keepers for draft pick upgrades.

Thanks!

OldMilwaukeePounders
OldMilwaukeePounders
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Thanks, homie!

H-to-the-Rizzo
H-to-the-Rizzo
6 years ago

H2H Keeper league 5×5, OBP league.

Considering a keeper trade… need some opinions after the schmohawk post.

Would you rather have Rizzo in the 4th rd or Pollock in the 11th?

Thanks guys!

H-to-the-Rizzo
H-to-the-Rizzo
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: That’s what I thought. Thank you Mr. Grey.

CoreyII
CoreyII
6 years ago

Lost KDavis as my last keeper in an NL Only, 2 C, 10 team league. Who would you pick as a new keeper… $4 DEspinosa, $4 Solarte, or $4 Hundley?

Other keepers are Rizzo, Rendon, Kang and, Wacha.

Thanks!!

CoreyII
CoreyII
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey:

Thanks! Not many other options for any value over their likely auction price… thought the cheap guys were my best bets… rather have $9 Jake Lamb, $24 Kemp, $10 Cashner, $21 Rondon?

Highest cost non kept players last year – Kershaw and Goldy – both went for $30couple.

CoreyII
CoreyII
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Cool! Thanks for the double reply!

Fish
Fish
6 years ago

Grey I have a keeper conundrum that requires your great expertise. H2H 10 team (R, H, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG & IP, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, QS) and I need to keep 3 of the following with the associated loss in pick:

Jose Fernandez (14th round)
Arrieta (5th)
Syndergaard (18th)
Javier Baez (15th)
Gregory Polanco (17)
Chris Davis (4th)
Kinsler (7th)

At this point, I know Fernandez is a must keep, but I’m lost about the other two.

Okteds
Okteds
6 years ago

I think I missed the boat yesterday, but I’ll try running it on this thread…

I’ve got a hypothetical trade scenario I’d like to run past the group here:

20 team H2H Dynasty….A new owner in our league is breaking up his team….I’m stacked with prospects and wanna swoop in on Carlos Correa, and perhaps other pieces including Jose Abreu or AJ Pollack, or pitchers Richards, Bauer, Corbin, Quintana, and Jungman.

I’ve got a stacked list of prospects/young guys to trade from:
Sano, Severino, Mazara, Urias, Brinson, Williams, B. Zimmer, Robles, Snell, the good Cody Reed, Profar, Phillips, Bell, Story, Hanson, K. Marte, Vogelbach, Tim Anderson, Nottingham, Honeywell, Fisher, Bradley…Also the #3 upcoming pick which looks like it will be Swansby or Benintendi…

What combination from my list would be a fair trade for Carlos Correa + other pieces . And I guess the flip side to that, which of my guys should I cut loose, and who should I keep for the long haul….

Okteds
Okteds
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: So far, I’ve offered Zimmer, Williams, Marte, Story, and Hanson for Correa and Bauer with no response yet….just hoping to get some consensus as to what’s fair….

Fever Dog
Fever Dog
6 years ago

Hey Grey,

10-team , h2h, 5×5, keeping three (one Under 25).

My keepers are Rizzo, Arenado, and Correa. I’m trying to deal Kershaw. Right now, I have an offer of Kershaw + my 14th round pick for a 3rd round pick.

Here’s how my picks would go:

1st Round:
10th out of 10

2nd Round:
1st out of 10

3rd Round:
4th out of 10
10th out of 10

And then I wouldn’t have a 14th round pick (obviously).

Am I getting a good return, or should I try to push that 14th back a bit?

Thanks!

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
6 years ago

Grey!

What’s up? It’s your favorite Canucklehead.

Nice article, sorry I was away in the War Room having fun with the Excel file. Pure bliss.

Cheers,
Ante

Moscowitz
Moscowitz
6 years ago

A or B?

A: Eaton, Fires (or McHugh)
B: Jones, Severino

Thanks

knucks
knucks
Reply to  Moscowitz
6 years ago

@Moscowitz: based of greys overall rankings you have….

A. #124, 233 (or 236)
B. #66 , 169

My guess would prob be choice B.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  knucks
6 years ago

@knucks: I guess I could see eaton over jones if you were in a need of Runs/SBs over HR and RBI but I would think you could get that shizz alot cheaper

knucks
knucks
6 years ago

I know that through the years you prob get this question a bunch, but what exactly will QS instead of W’s do to your rankings? It seems like this is the choice of many keeper leagues. I would think that SP obviously becomes more valuable overall (with the top tier gaining the largest value from the change) but I am not sure how much more value to place on arms.

My league-mates are voting to make this change to our standard (not for much longer i guess) 5×5 12 team roto league, which is not a keeper league by the way. Would this push kershaw closer or possibly into the 1st round? I still can’t see myself taking him there so I guess that is silly to bring up, but what kind of changes does that make to your overall draft strategy with SPs? I find myself waiting and grabbing guys like Thor, Carrasco, K-Zar in the 4th and 5th rounds alot in Yahoo mocks. Then taking a 3rd pitcher around pick 100ish… ending up with an absolutely dominate amount of bats, along with a champ-caliber rotation. Those mocks are somewhat useless in a lot of ways, but I like to get a feel for strategy purposes. Would you make any kind of major changes to your strategy when this change in my league does get made?

Appreciate the help! And these daily articles get me through my work day, so thanks for helping me through Feb/March Grey.

And by the way, was listening to last year’s end of the year podcast last night for some reason (gotta boost them numbers anyway we can). I wonder if JB would pass on Son of Donals, his “2015 bust” if we were to re-draft hahah, so funny.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  knucks
6 years ago

@knucks: Dammit. Donald* Type such an obnoxiously large post and make a dumb ass error in the last sentence! Bring it on grammer po-po!

peacecoast
peacecoast
6 years ago

greygoose,

fowler to the O’s

thoughts? on the podcast you said his projections stay the same but that’s a nice park!

what’s his new line?

p.s. is grey albright your real name?

knucks
knucks
Reply to  peacecoast
6 years ago

@peacecoast: I think that he mentioned a few years ago that his given birth name was actually “Matthew Berry”. Or was that just a nightmare I had?

Fungazi
Fungazi
Reply to  peacecoast
6 years ago

@peacecoast: Fowler also puts a damper on Schoop climbing to the top of the lineup I suspect.

Slippa smooth
Slippa smooth
6 years ago

I have Rizzo and Bryant in a 12 team dynasty @grey

I was offered heyward and aj reed for sano

Not sure if three Cubs are a smart attack plan but what do you think about that?

Slippa smooth
Slippa smooth
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: you the king

the swinging
the swinging
6 years ago

On an unrelated note, David wright needs to be crossed off draft boards. This was a tweet i just saw…

Wright met with Collins today and “planned to make the plan”. First he needs to get in baseball shape. Only started running 10 days ago

Wright has a spinal disease. Supposedly it’s not even suitable for him to ride on a bus. Imagine 6 months of place rides and playing baseball. He’s not worthy of being drafted even at the end of drafts.

the swinging
the swinging
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Good thing . I heard he needs a Medevac just to get to the bathroom.

I’d bet a ton he plays under 100 games.

the swinging
the swinging
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey Daily news article from 45 mins ago. This guy is so washed up. I’m here to let everyone know… don’t take this guy under any circumstance.

Managing David Wright’s back is front and center for Mets

PORT ST. LUCIE — David Wright is not going to put a number on how many games he will play this season. The Mets captain will not even estimate how much work he will do this spring as he balances resting his back and getting ready for the season.

Cabby
Cabby
6 years ago

12 team keeper league
Rbi, OBP, Total bases, SB, R
Whip, Era, K, qs plus wins, holds plus saves

10 keepers
Kris bryant
Arenado
Jose Abreu
Altuve
Tulo
Bautista
Starling Marte
Brantley
Kluber
King felix

Should I trade kris Bryant for Harper. Bryant is OF eligible for this year and gives me a nice option at third if Arenado gets hurt or I decide to trade Arenado. I expect bryant to be close to harper this year if I slotted him in the outfield. I value a top infielder more than an OF but I don’t think Bryant will ever reach harpers level.
Thoughts? I could also hold onto bryant and try to get correa?

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
Reply to  Cabby
6 years ago

@Cabby:

Harper fo’ shizz

Matt
Matt
6 years ago

12 team dynasty league trade advice @grey

Yasiel puig and Johnny peralta for Troy tulo and tanaka
My team is:

Perez
Morales
Castro
Arenado
Peralta
Puig
Cutch
Polanco
Alex Gordon
Belt

Carlos Rodon
Teheran
Raisel Iglesias
Drew smyly
James shields
Archie Bradley
Lucas Giolito
Jose Berrios
Shawn Tolleson

Matt
Matt
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: thanks swag

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Matt
6 years ago

@Matt: You’re welcome?

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

My two favorite comments of the spring.

Joey Votto:
“I did a lot of walking and a lot of sleeping (in the offseason),” Votto said. “The Cincinnati fan base can be excited about the future of my performance, I’m going to be well-rested and practiced walking a lot.”

Steven Vogt, asked if he was in the best shape of his life:

“Of course not…I’m 31 years old.”

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: after a trip to the gym I can say I’m in the best shape of my 40’s.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: I was hoping for a happy ending

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  J-FOH
6 years ago

@J-FOH: That’s the “I Chi Bang Massage Parlor” Not the Gym.

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  The Great Knoche
6 years ago

@The Great Knoche: they are both a workout

Fungazi
Fungazi
Reply to  GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

@GhostTownSteve: Cliff Lee’s agent: “Cliff is considering retirement”

I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail
I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail
Reply to  GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

@GhostTownSteve: first time one of these guys actually told the full truth.

Whatever
Whatever
6 years ago

So at what auction value would you consider drafting Pollock?

Whatever
Whatever
Reply to  Whatever
6 years ago

@Whatever: Assuming 10-12 team mixed.

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

As you know, I like Pollock a little more than you. I would consider him as a pairing with a power bat at the turn at the end of the first round, but I see where you’re coming from on feeling like he’s overly inflated in the market. But just for the hell of it…from last year

K rate: Pollock 13.2%, Marte 19.4%
BB rate: Pollock 7.9%, Marte 4.3%
Steal success rate: Pollock 85%, Marte 75%
FB%: Pollock 29%, Marte 22.7%
Hard hit%: Pollock 33.8%, Marte 28.7%
Home park: Zona v Pitt
BABIP: Pollock .338, Marte .333

I know how you do your rankings where if you don’t like a guy as much as everybody else you drop him way down as it doesn’t matter because you won’t be drafting him anyway, but they these two seem a lot closer than 12 vs 31.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

@GhostTownSteve: Good Stuff

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

@GhostTownSteve: Too bad none of those are fantasy categories. Then again, I’m not as high on Marte. I think they’re both in the 30’s. Lorenzo Cainish.

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
Reply to  Cram It
6 years ago

@Cram It:

Yeah but those things are indicators of potential for fantasy categories, obviously. I think the argument for Marte is that there’s room for growth and that the numbers are a better reflection of his true talent level whereas Pollock basically peaked and will take a step back.

Whatever
Whatever
Reply to  GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

@GhostTownSteve: I am keeping Pollock in my keepers for 12 bucks. I dont think even Grey would turn down a 12 dollar Pollock. But I am also pairing him with Bautista for 23.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  GhostTownSteve
6 years ago

@GhostTownSteve: In a one year comp, could be, but yeah the argument is Pollock peaking vs Marte ascending.

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
Reply to  Cram It
6 years ago

@Cram It:

I was actually pretty surprised at how close the two are across some of the metrics.

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey:

Just providing a comp…Magoo style…as a benchmark for the Pollock analysis.

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey:

March 26th. Geeked!

pbmax
pbmax
6 years ago

Keeper Question H2H, CI, MI, 5 OF, 1UTIL: Keep 6; Already have Goldy, Kershaw, Arenado, Abreu as locks.

Pick 2: Upton, Adam Jones, Odor, Heyward, Joc, Chris Archer.

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  pbmax
6 years ago

@pbmax: Id go Upton and Archer

pbmax
pbmax
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Thanks guys!

Running Frog
Running Frog
6 years ago

Greetings from North North Korea, Grey! It got above freezing last week for the first time since November. Definitely baseball time again.

I’ve now drafted 4 ESPN free leagues (what can I say, I am a sucker for live drafts against schmohawks). In them I am yet to draft Brandon Belt, which is kind of bumming me out since I was all on board the Belt love train. But boy have I drafted some Polanco. Not only have I drafted Polanco in every single draft, he has been my UTIL in two of them. Yes, that’s right. Drafting against schmohawks gets you Polanco as your 6th OF.

I freaked out during my latest 10-teamer draft because I lost internet in the first round. Finally got back online and saw I was the proud owner of Kershaw. :( But I still wound up with Miggy, and an outfield of Betts, Springer, Upton, Braun, and Polanco. With Salazar, Ross, Liriano, Matz, and Darvish rounding out the rotation, Franco, Bogaerts, Lawrie, and Castro filling out the infield, and the usual assortment of closers, it feels like a curbstomping.

Grey, are there any position battles in spring training you are particularly watching for fantasy upside? Anyone that might represent big upside if they happen to get a starting job, that sort of thing?

Honus
Honus
6 years ago

Need to choose between the two as final keepers. Bogearts at$8 or Franco at$4. Needs not an issue at this point. Thanks

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  Honus
6 years ago

@Honus: Franco

Mets fan
Mets fan
Reply to  JeF WiTh 1 F
6 years ago

@JeF WiTh 1 F: is that based more on dollar amt or stat value

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  Mets fan
6 years ago

@Mets fan: Both

Right in the pujols
Right in the pujols
6 years ago

Who would you rather keep – Chris davis in the 5th round or Archer in the 7th? I also have correa, machado, arenado.

zombie
6 years ago

Stunk like a potential career year. Thanks for the back up. Definitely not worth his draft slot. Also quite astute that he’s no Putski who was dominant for years; AND was said to eat an onion like you and I eat an apple. Cust kayin’.

HR to the Izzo
HR to the Izzo
6 years ago

Grey,
10 team keeper league, 3 keepers per team, keep in round drafted and they move up rounds each year. I am keeping Harper in the 10th round and Rizzo in the 6th round, but have a ton of good options for the 3rd keeper. Which one of the following provides the best value based on rankings and round I can keep them in?
J. Upton 2nd round
T. Frazier 3rd round
T. Ross 5th round
C. Carrasco 7th round
C. Archer 17th round
E. Hosmer 18th round
D. Keuchel 19th round

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  HR to the Izzo
6 years ago

@HR to the Izzo: Archer’s probably the best value, but I’d still keep Upton, i.e. the best bat.

Jon
Jon
6 years ago

I have to set my final keepers by Monday. If Desmond hasn’t signed by then, better to go with another option like Eaton or Smyly? Rest of my team (18 keepers, no cost) with current non-keepers in parentheses:

C (Martin)
1B Goldy
2B Odor
3B Arenado
SS Bogaerts
MI Desmond
CI Donaldson
OF Stanton
OF Betts
OF Jones
OF Pederson
DH Hosmer
Bench (Eaton)
Bench (Avi Garcia)
Bench

SP Harvey
SP Cole
SP Carrasco
SP Liriano
SP Iglesias
SP McCullers
SP (Smyly)
SP (Gausman)
SP (Velasquez)
SP (Wheeler)

RP Davis

Do the rest of my keeper choices make sense?

Jon
Jon
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Eaton either way, or only if Desmond is still up in the air?

Jon
Jon
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Thanks!

Whatever
Whatever
Reply to  Jon
6 years ago

@Jon: I have the same problem. If I have to drop Desmond i have to give back 8 bucks.

Jon
Jon
Reply to  Whatever
6 years ago

@Whatever: Yeah, kind of tough without know where he’ll land. I’d love it if he signed in Colorado!

NatsFan
NatsFan
6 years ago

Great stuff as always, Grey.

NFBC Slllloooooowwwww draft. 10 rounds in the books.

Pick 7:

Rizzo
Marte
Frazier
Salazar
Polonco
M. Franco
Ty. Ross
Rodon
Tolleson
Deshields

Want to grab Starlin in round 11 but draft has been funky with SP’s and Closers and I will need to grab Closer #2. Likely Storen or Cishek (ugh).

Thoughts thus far?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  NatsFan
6 years ago

@NatsFan: Go Mets!

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  NatsFan
6 years ago

@NatsFan: LGM!!!

Brittoning on my Yelich
Brittoning on my Yelich
6 years ago

In a 12 team up to 10 keeper 6×6 (OBP, Save Holds are apart of the scoring) league. Positional outfield positions are in play.

I am keeping my full 10. Nine of of my keepers are the following: Goldie, Correa, Bautista, Cano, Heyward, Pollock, Price, Harvey, Grey.

Im torn between Yelich and Britton for that final spot. Left field feels unbelievable shallow and finding top tier closer types is just as difficult. If I let either of them walk, I doubt I’ll be able to redraft them.

Thoughts?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Brittoning on my Yelich
6 years ago

@Brittoning on my Yelich: I’d keep both and lose Grey…assuming you mean Sonny Gray.

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  Cram It
6 years ago

@Cram It: Agree with Cram

Brittoning on my Yelich
Brittoning on my Yelich
Reply to  JeF WiTh 1 F
6 years ago

@JeF WiTh 1 F:

I am not as down on Gray as everyone else.

Why is everyone down on him?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Brittoning on my Yelich
6 years ago

@Brittoning on my Yelich: It’s not so much that, as it is that you have two Aces already. If LF and RP are that shallow, then they’d be harder to replace than a 3rd starter.

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  Brittoning on my Yelich
6 years ago

@Brittoning on my Yelich: Hes good for ratios (ERA,WHIP) but is like a 7.5 K per 9 guy. ..on a bad team so wins wont come easy..Hes a solid starter but doesn’t wow you in any stat.Its not that hes bad just easily replaceable and i just like the other potential keepers better

J-FOH
J-FOH
Reply to  Brittoning on my Yelich
6 years ago

@Brittoning on my Yelich: Gray’s FIP and swstr% are not in the elite realm. He had a crazy low babip last year. That babip was partially fueled by his home park and groundball percentage. He’s too risky to repeat the numbers from last year. I would love to hear ghost town steves evaluation of sonny. He’s our resident A’s scout.

GhostTownSteve
GhostTownSteve
Reply to  J-FOH
6 years ago

@J-FOH:

Couple of things on Sonny Gray.

First I truly believe he will almost always outpitch his FIP. He is the best fielding pitcher I’ve ever seen. Including Greg Maddox. He’s an uber athlete and an uber competitor.

I also think he has the potential to strike out more guys than he has the last couple of years. He’s pitching to contact and he changed his pitch mix away from his curveball which is a real swing and miss pitch to using more sliders and a cutter like slider. He’s definitely shown the ability to get a K when he needs it though, another reason why I think he can outpitch his FIP…something he’s done every year of his career.

I think you’re going to get 3.00/1.10/170 with a solid shot to win 14+ every year and he’s as close to a lock to go 200 as I think I can point to.

John Holden
John Holden
6 years ago

Hey Grey, I need to keep 7 keepers in my 5×5 league. I have Harper, Abreu, Kluber, boegarts, K. Seager. I need to choose 2 more between Odor, Carrasco, Heyward, Brantley, Chapman and Gallo.Thanks

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  John Holden
6 years ago

@John Holden: Id get rid of Seager and keep Odor, Carrasco and Heyward

jhan23
jhan23
6 years ago

Question for basically anyone with a good thought: We have issues in our league during our Auction draft that guys arent doing their own research and specifically targeting guys that certain managers start bidding on. Since Yahoo does not have the option to hide the bidder I am wondering if anyone has any other options for this? ex. any other programs that could run the draft and then enter the results manually into yahoo site

Five-On-One
Five-On-One
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: Let the unprepared bid however they want. If they start ‘mirroring’ other managers, those other managers can bid on a few players they don’t want.

jhan23
jhan23
Reply to  Five-On-One
6 years ago

@Five-On-One: Everyone knows certain names obviously. This really comes into play when we are into the late rounds and guys who did their research start bidding for their sleepers and prospects. Or a guy like Polanco this year who Grey has at a high value but I should be able to get at almost half of his value.

Caitlyn Jenners Penis
Caitlyn Jenners Penis
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: @Five-On-One: auctions are free market. if the competition still has dollars to spend I don’t really see the issue? Why is it unfair that someone penciled in their “sleeper” at $1 and had to pay more? Sounds like the person that was unprepared was the guy throwing his sleeper out there too early, not the guy bidding him up…

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Caitlyn Jenners Penis
6 years ago

@Caitlyn Jenners Penis: I tend to agree with Penis on this one.

If you’re worried another manager is onto your sleepers, nominate someone late in the draft that’s getting sleeper hype who you don’t actually want.

Alternatively, you could bid $4 out the gate for a late round sleeper you do want. You’ll get your guy because they will have to pony up $5 to snipe you. If they do pay $5, they probably blew most of their remaining budget.

The fact that you’re aware of what the manager is trying to do gives you the advantage again.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: Fake them out then. Bid up guys you don’t want. They’ll have to run out of money some time.

jhan23
jhan23
Reply to  Cram It
6 years ago

@Cram It: Honestly I tend to never nominate a guy I actually want. As 1 way around this ( but I think that is a pretty common strategy). I just think it would be great if they didnt even know who was bidding or how much $$$ they had left.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: It is a common strategy. I prefer knowing who’s drafting and their money left. You know who the more competitive teams are in your league, and this adds to the strategy…knowing their needs, bidding them out, etc.

Whatever
Whatever
Reply to  Cram It
6 years ago

@Cram It: You have to be careful in later rounds of auction draft that you dont get stuck with someone. Nominating guys you dont want works up to a point.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Whatever
6 years ago

@Whatever: I guess. I’m only nominating guys for $1. I’m not going to nominate a guy for a buck that I don’t want when everyone’s $1 at that point. But even if I somehow end up with a guy I don’t want for $1, it’s only $1. Those guys are getting dropped most of the time anyway.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: I never nominate guys I want in an auction until we are getting close to the end with $1 players or other Jabronies are out of money. Fixes Your problem.

jhan23
jhan23
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Of course I don’t… Ha. thats not my issue at all. Maybe I am having a harder time explaining than I thought. What I want is guys bidding because they truly feel they know what they are worth. Not just bidding on them because myself or a few other managers that take the time to do the research are bidding on them.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: It’s no different than managers bidding to exactly what the “Avg Cost” is listed as. Who says they did or didn’t do research or do or don’t know what their “true” value is?

So basically your complaint should be to be in a more competitive league with smarter managers instead of revamping the whole auction system!

jhan23
jhan23
Reply to  Cram It
6 years ago

@Cram It: I agree with the more competitive league statement fully, my situation though is that we have a solid group that we do all the fantasy sports with and Baseball to about half of them is just to fill in the season between Hockey and Football. Unfortuneately for me, I am the only one that prefers Baseball over the others and get a bit frustrated when this is how people prepare for the draft.

jhan23
jhan23
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: I don’t need to examine their brain when they openly admit to why they bid on players, I agree with everyones thoughts that this just needs to be put into the strategy of my own draft though.
Thanks as always Grey
although you just mocked my whining..lol
I probably deserved it.
Commish of this league and have been asked by a few guys if there is anything we could do to deter this happening

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: Dude, get more serious managers in there. What do you expect when you have people who don’t care about it as much?

Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey
Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey
Reply to  jhan23
6 years ago

@jhan23: i don’t see the “issue” here.

ERad
ERad
6 years ago

I hear ya G – I have Pollock as a 12th round keeper, wouldn’t draft him in the 3rd-4th rounds – just looking for a reasonable return, no schmohawking around.

ERad
ERad
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: Damn, don’t really mock anymore cause of all the keepers – but that’s pretty crazy.

mc2Rumba
mc2Rumba
6 years ago

So 101/15/60/20ish SBs/.290?

Looks like a line Adam Eaton could post this year.

Sell on Pollock and buy on Eaton later in the draft, IMO.

Honus
Honus
6 years ago

Franco or Bogearts?

'Saul Gooood, Man
'Saul Gooood, Man
6 years ago

Reading about Pollock reminds me of a nightmare scenario in our full redraft H2H league last season. Two teams tried a trade of Pollock for next years first round pick. We have never kept players, traded picks, anything. And many owners were okay with this mid-season.

How could this work in a redraft? I just don’t get it.

CMUTimmah
CMUTimmah
Reply to  'Saul Gooood, Man
6 years ago

@‘Saul Gooood, Man: It doesn’t work in a redraft, essentially it’s collusion. Where’s Ruxin when you need him? haha

I had something similar that cause me to leave the league I was in. Keeper league, you could keep 6 players, the rest go back to the draft. Guys were trading players they weren’t keeping for draft picks because other players wanted to keep them. If you trade a 7th player for value, you’re essentially keeping a 7th player. The commish said “we didn’t say you COULDN’T do that” and let it happen, instead of putting on his big boy pants and stopping the BS. It’s amazing how crap like this happens.

Five-On-One
Five-On-One
Reply to  CMUTimmah
6 years ago

@CMUTimmah: In a keeper league, trading draft picks is often fair game. If the rules allow it, a good manager will use it.

'Saul Gooood, Man
'Saul Gooood, Man
Reply to  CMUTimmah
6 years ago

@CMUTimmah: I’m not too involved with keepers scenarios, but I tend to say if even one manager disagrees with a mid-season predicament, it has to wait till offseason votes.

'Saul Gooood, Man
'Saul Gooood, Man
Reply to  Grey
6 years ago

@Grey: I fully agree. This was nearing H2H playoff time though when it was brought up.

And now, of course, the league is voting against it this preseason. All the same that voted for it mid-season.

What's a Drexl?
What's a Drexl?
Reply to  'Saul Gooood, Man
6 years ago

@‘Saul Gooood, Man: this stuff has to be spelled out before it happens, not after.

Warren
Warren
6 years ago

Preseason trade opportunity. I have lots of potential keepers, and this other guy pretty much just has Machado and Betts. Won’t trade Manny though.

It’s an overpay, but I can only keep one of these guys I’d be trading, so thought I could turn them into a better asset:

Abreu
Arrieta
Schwarber

for Mookie Betts

Obviously, steep price, but I think I’d rather have Betts than Abreu. OBP league.

Five-On-One
Five-On-One
Reply to  Warren
6 years ago

@Warren: Just say . For those three, you should be able to do better

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