I’ve heard many a person say something along the lines of “Daily fantasy baseball is such a crap shoot, it’s such a small sample, there’s no way you can win”. To these negative Nellys I say, “must be the money”. No wait, that wasn’t it, “it’s getting hot in herre”. Nope, oh right, here it is, I present them with the old poker counter argument, why then are the same people at the top of the leaderboards on a routine basis? Just like with poker, if it’s all luck, why do the same players routinely make final tables? Is there luck involved? Of course! But I will argue over and over that if you have a good process, you’ll be a winner in the long run. This is where the importance of bankroll management comes into play. You have to manage well enough that you can allow yourself time to be sure your process is a good one without going broke. A week long losing streak will happen and it sucks, but it doesn’t prove your process is bad. A general tip is to use 5-10% of your bankroll a night. In addition, don’t blow that 10% on GPPs. Just like with the stock market, you have to diversify. If you stick to 10% and play generally low risk options while sprinkling in the occasional GPP and you go broke, then I’d say it’s time to reevaluate your strategy and player evaluation methods. However, if your process is sound and your bankroll management and game choices are smart, you’ll be a winner over the course of the season. Will it be a grind? Yes. Will it be glamorous and you’ll win a hundred grand your first week? Doubtful. You just gotta have the heart of a champion. Now, let’s shake ya tailfeather down below to some player picks for today’s slate.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
But first, shout out to yet another friend of mine who took down the Razzball Framily Plan last Tuesday. DRandall187 aka “the Ginja Ninjas” took a shot on Taijuan Walker and rode Zack Cozart’s double slam with a side of legs to a big victory. Apparently, it’s good luck when I invite you into your first Razzball game. With that, I invite anyone who hasn’t tried it yet to come on in and give it a shot. Congrats to DRandall187 and let’s see who earns that coveted top spot tonight.
Johnny Cueto, SP: $10,400 – There’s the big three tonight of Kershaw, Bumgarner and Cueto. Of these three, Cueto has to be the number one option facing a beleaguered Brewers lineup. These days, the first places I’m looking for pitching is pitchers facing Philly, Minny and Milly (not sure that nickname will stick). When one of those is a stud like Cueto, he’s the de facto number one for cash games.
Michael Wacha, SP: $8,300 – Philly’s turn to be picked on. The three teams I mentioned above are all sitting in the cellar in terms of team OPS. They are the worst by about 30 points in the category. It’s hard to do much damage if you’re not getting on base and not hitting the ball hard. Of those three, Philly is the worst with a team OPS under .600. They strikeout less than the Brewers, but I think Wacha can help remedy that for them.
Anibal Sanchez, SP: $7,700 – Moving down the salary ladder and up the team OPS rankings we have Anibal vs the Twinkies. While the Twins are the best of this trio of woeful offenses, it’s like being first in a class of remedial readers, they still aren’t great. Anibal held the Twins to 3 hits the last go around and is coming off a very nice game vs. the Yanks. He’s got the k-upside to break into the double digits and I’ll take that for this price.
Trevor Bauer, SP: $8,000 – There are two games starting at blue-hair special time of 6:10 tonight, TOR @ BOS and KC @ CLE. Our Razzball league won’t include those and neither will most of the games on DraftKings. If you’re playing them however in H2H or 50/50 games, a word of warning on Bauer and something to consider in the future. The Royals don’t strikeout. Strikeouts are the surest way to upside in the daily game and when a team limits them the way the Royals do, you have to be aware of that. Last season the Royals struck out 119 times less than the nearest team and this year they are already 20 less than the next team. Just an FYI.
A.J. Pierzynski, C: $3,400 – A.J. Cole will be called up to make the spot start for Max Scherzer who has a thumb owie. Catcher’s stink, so we may a well nab one that’s fairly cheap, has been on fire at the plate and is facing a kid making his MLB debut.
Matt Adams, 1B: $4,500 – This seems like the price range where I’ll be looking for a first baseman. Just like with AJ above, we’ll be picking on a kid making his MLB debut here in Severino Gonzalez, who sort of sounds like a pirate. I always go take a peek at the minor league numbers when a newbie gets the call that I haven’t studies up on. In AA last season Severino sported a 4.60 ERA. Fire away. Matt has the L/R split in his favor here and will be a favorite play of mine tonight.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $4,600 – I’m like a 3rd grade bully stuffing 1st grader’s heads in the toilet the way I’m picking on these kids tonight. Could the unfamiliarity and lack of film burn me and these guys throw gems? Perhaps. I’ll play the odds though and load up on left-handed veteran Braves.
Alex Guerrero, 2B/SS: $3,000 – There’s no way he starts…or is there? It seems like a Mattingly thing to do to wait until they are facing one of the toughest lefties in the game to give Guerrero a start. Mattingly has also mentioned possibly playing Alex in LF and with Crawford coming up gimpy last night, it could happen. It’s something to keep an eye on and would make for a nice contrarian play since I think a lot of people would avoid him given the matchup.
Brett Lawrie, 2B/3B: $3,400 – The middle infield is always my favorite place to save a few bucks and if Guerrero is riding the pine, I’d look to Lawrie facing the 79 MPH fastball of Jered Weaver. He’s been in a funk, but I’m not giving up on the Red Bull infused second baseman (who plays third) just yet.
Matt Carpenter, 3B: $4,800 – If you’re rolling with a Cardinals stack, you’ve got to include the lefty leadoff man. Third Base is tough tonight. I’ll probably end up with Carpenter if I’m stacking or mini stacking Cardinals. Otherwise, I’ll be hitting the bargain bin.
Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B: $3,100 – That will save you some dough and Yangervis can be used at either 2B or 3B. Much to my chagrin it appears Bud Black has learned what to do with Yangervis AFTER his trip to Coors field. He’s settled into the 2 hole the last 3 games and if he’s there again tonight against the pitcher formerly known as Fausto, I’m buying.
Andrelton Simmons, SS: $3,500 – For the first time in what seems like a decade, Freddie Gonzalez has done something intelligent and batted Simmons second. I’m not sure if he’ll continue to do so, but if you’re loading up on Braves at all, Simmons is a nice addition at a reasonable price.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $5,300 – What, you thought I was going to have a lead paragraph full of Nelly references and then not mention Nelly Cruz as the top overall play of the day? You’re silly. DraftKings has taken the matchup into account, but don’t let it deter you. Cruz could hit 3 taters tonight and you’ll want to ride wit him. I’m done, I swear.
Sam Fuld, OF: $3,200 – I’ll be deploying the OAK lefty bats wherever possible today, especially at this discount rate. Fuld can really rack up the points if he scores a few runs and steals a bag or two. This price is almost criminal for someone who’s been as hot as Super Sam. Enjoy.
Josh Reddick, OF: $4,200 – With the money saved by Fuld, you may as well add the LH power compliment to the mix. I’m all over these two tonight. I like what Reddick’s doing of late, riding a 5 game hit streak and getting on base at over a .400 clip this year. Cruz/Fuld/Reddick will be my OF almost exclusively and I’d say will set you up quite nicely too.
Bryce Harper, OF: $4,200 – For those of you into such things, Bryce is 7/16 with 2 HRs and a walk vs. Teheran. Teheran is having is own issues at the moment with back to back clunkers and it could be three straight after Bryce and company are done with him.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Washington at Atlanta appears to be the only problematic game tonight with some rain later on in the evening. Check back, with any luck the rain gets pushed back and is a non issue.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Coors South, Chase Field gets the high over/under on the night with a 9. Seattle at Texas is right there as well. My guess is Nelson Cruz’s over/under in that game is 7. Little surprise that the pair of aces Kershaw and Bumgarner earn the 6 spot tonight. Meanwhile, Wacha and Cueto each earn the biggest favorite honors at -200.
