Zen And The Art Of Fantasy Baseball: Getting Out Of My Own Way – Or, Why I’m Picking Up Matt Shaw Everywhere

The Moment of Zen:

One of the aspects of Buddhist practice that I find most appealing is the measured, fair assessment of the human condition the practice espouses. The Second Noble Truth tells us that suffering, which according to the First Noble Truth is something all humans deal with, largely originates from us, from our own minds. We suffer because, yes, bad things happen to us, but mostly the real suffering comes from our unwillingness to accept life as it is and work with it from there. Instead of leaning into our struggles and learning from them, we tend to wish them away – we crave a change, or based on the original Pali word tanhā, we “thirst” for something different. In this way, humans seem to be humans’ greatest obstacle to happiness.

Yet, while acknowledging human craving as the source of much of our suffering, Buddhism also recognizes that humans are wise. In fact, of the three teachers that all of us should learn from (the Root Teacher, the Inner Teacher, and the Universal, or Secret, Teacher), the Inner Teacher comes from within each of us. In other words, we all have innate wisdom, understanding, and the ability to awaken. While we certainly should be shaped from external teachers (the Buddha, wise friends and mentors, etc.), the teachings we receive don’t much matter unless we use our own innate wisdom and learn also from it. In this way, humans are an essential element in humans’ processes of overcoming suffering.

Thus, according to Buddhist practice, humans are deeply flawed to the extent that our own suffering comes from ourselves. Yet, humans are also deeply wise to the extent that to end our suffering, we must learn from ourselves how not to crave but instead to understand. Ultimately, then, no one or nothing external will fix what ails us – we must do that. But first, we must learn to stop ailing ourselves.

How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?

Last week, I talked about Xavier Edwards, who many of you likely – and correctly – noted wasn’t exactly an unknown player who needed someone to introduce him to the broader fantasy community. As I mentioned in last week’s article, the point I was making wasn’t that I was trying to get my readers to see something they weren’t seeing – my point was to get myself to see something I should have understood earlier but was too stubborn to do so. I’m hopeful the Nick Gonzales discussion was at least helpful to those of you who are in deeper leagues in introducing someone you may not have been quite as familiar with.

Conversely, this week, the player I’ll discuss is probably more relevant for my deeper league friends out there. In fact, as I went through FAB last night, the player was available everywhere, and I picked him up without facing any backup bid competition pretty much wherever I wanted him. But shallow league players, don’t worry – I actually think this week’s player can be helpful in as shallow as 10-team leagues.

Matt Shaw

My discussion of Xavier Edwards last week was really all about how I wouldn’t allow myself to see something that was right in front of me simply because certain aspects of his game didn’t align with the types of stats I tend to like to chase. Shaw presents some different challenges for me. In both cases (with Edwards and with Shaw), I have to learn how to get out of my own way. Allow me to explain…

Shaw, who is eligible at both OF and 3B, has exactly the kind of profile that I tend to like to roster, yet I find myself happily ignoring him. Not so much because of his lack of playing time (which would be a fair reason to have ignored him up to this point of the season), but instead because I don’t particularly care for Shaw’s inability to understand why some of his personal decisions (and very public appearances) tend to alienate a large part of the Cubs’ fan base. Decisions that he correctly sees as his to make – he’s a person; he gets to believe what he believes – have significant numbers of Cubs’ fans thinking Shaw implicitly disapproves of them and somewhat openly thinks large chunks of Cubs’ fans are simply bad people. I struggle with players like that, ones who place themselves in the position of moral arbiter for the rest of society. Well, frankly, I struggle with people like that, not just players. And, yes, I can acknowledge the pot calling the kettle black here – if I disapprove of his tendency to judge others, obviously, I’m putting myself in the position of judge as well. Even more reason I feel uneasy when it comes to Shaw: I find myself turned off by what I consider to be his lack of awareness, and therefore put myself in a position to do exactly what I am criticizing him for. I can assure you the irony isn’t lost on me.

As a fantasy baseball player, however, my personal feelings for the player – and whatever shortcomings those feelings might point out in myself – really shouldn’t matter when it comes to making roster decisions. I have to understand that my craving for someone else to change their behavior is both unrealistic and (at least usually) unwise. If I listen closely enough to my inner teacher, I know I have no control over what someone else does, nor am I in a position to say that the way I look at the world is correct (I suspect the outlook is almost hopelessly flawed) while the way others look at the world isn’t.

What should matter, at least in this case, is: As a fantasy manager, can I see there is value in his profile, and can I use that value to make my team better? And right now, the answers to those questions are easily “yes” and “yes.” While for much of the season, he hasn’t been particularly useful in the context of fantasy, now, he almost certainly will be. On June 9th, Shaw was reinstated from his stay on the IL, at that point at least making him a part of the Cubs’ roster plans. But more importantly, on June 18th, Moises Ballesteros was optioned to AAA Iowa primarily to give Shaw more of an open opportunity to be in the daily lineup. Shaw’s playing time had already begun to tick up even before the Ballesteros demotion: since June 13th, Shaw has played in all but one of the Cubs’ seven games, and he has now started the team’s last five games. The first question any fantasy manager should ask when considering FAB pickups is, “Is the guy playing?” The answer here is obviously “yes.”

The second question a fantasy manager should ask: “Does the player have a profile that could be helpful?” And, again, the answer is “yes.” Shaw hasn’t been great this year, but that isn’t because he isn’t a talented player. While his current season line, across 131 PA, includes an ok .252 BA, the average is supported by numbers that don’t pop off the screen: 4 HR, 16 R, 19 RBI, 3 SB, a measly 6.1% BB%, and a quite disappointing .308 OBP. Under the hood, the results look mixed: his 36.1 HH% is definitely lower than I would like to see, as is his extremely disappointing 5.2% Barrel% (those two power metrics combine to explain his less-than-desirable .242 xBA). At AAA Iowa just last season, Shaw was able to put together a 43.8% HH% with a 10% Barrel% – those are the types of numbers I’d like to see him get to in the majors to show he belongs here. 

But even with the disappointing numbers, he is actually squaring the ball up quite effectively – 28.7% of the time in fact, which if he had enough plate appearances to qualify would put him in the 77th percentile of all players. His LA Sweet-Spot% is also quite good – 36.1%, which again if he had enough plate appearances to qualify would put him in the 70th percentile (and dead even with a guy named Jose Ramirez). What does this mean? Even though he isn’t crushing the ball, he’s hitting the ball with the type of efficiency that creates good results (most notably, homers). And if we’re being fair about his current season-long pace, if extrapolated out to 650 PA, he’d be on pace to get to 20 HR, 79 R, 94 RBI, and 15 SB. All of a sudden, his early results are looking much more impressive! And while extrapolated season lines are theoretical, his current pace looks supportable based on his minor league numbers (most notably in 2024 when, across both AA and AAA, he hit .284 with 21 HR, 78 R, 71 RBI, and 31 SB). Taken all together, Shaw is clearly a player with the type of profile that could be helpful in fantasy.

A third reasonable question might be, “Is the player currently performing?” Baseball is a game of streaks, so it shouldn’t be a disqualifier if a player is currently underperforming, but the fact is Shaw is doing exactly the types of things we’d like to see a FAB pickup do. In the six games (including five started games) he’s appeared in since June 13th, Shaw has 25 PA and is 7 of 22 (.318 BA) with 2 triples, 1 HR, 6 R, 7 RBI, 2 BB, and 1 HBP while maintaining an 8% BB% with only a 20% K%. Obviously, the sample is small, but in fantasy, quick decisions have to be made, leading us as fantasy managers to need to react to small samples.

Once I am able to get out of my own way as a fantasy manager and assess Shaw’s game without so much influence from my own personal blinders, he looks like a no-brainer to roster and play right now. And considering his low rostership percentages across fantasy platforms (CBS 21%, ESPN 3.1%, Fantrax 56%, Yahoo 9%), he’s available for pretty much anyone who decides to take a flyer on him. I certainly will be doing so.

Thanks for checking in this week – good luck as you begin to position your teams for the long summer grind. Until next week. –ADHamley