So your Fantasy team just lost Aaron Judge.
First of all, my best wishes. I know, I know, I know. In the course of life, it’s obviously meaningless. I mean, Aaron Judge himself will be absolutely fine and hopefully, for the Yankees’ sake, makes it back for the playoffs. They have great starting pitching and enough of a cushion that they should still get there even without much more from him. But hey, we’re a Fantasy baseball site here, and I cover outfielders, and this is an absolute five-alarm fire. There is no format where you can come close to replacing perhaps the best hitter in MLB. But as they said in Moneyball, let’s try to recreate him in the aggregate as best we can.
In trading leagues where there’s some sort of dynasty or keeper element, maybe it’s an excuse to pull the trigger on a Buy Trade. Those are all obviously league-specific. So let’s concentrate on what we can maybe get off the wire. I’ll start with shallower leagues, and here are some of the guys either available in my home leagues…..or actually on my team as of recently
.250, 6 HR, 21 Runs, 15 RBI’s, 2 Steals
Jac Cags was an obvious mean regression candidate after hitting a disastrous .157 in 232 PA’s last year, with an incredibly unlucky .151 BABIP. His xwOBA of .320 wasn’t special, but it showed he actually hit way better than his actual .239 wOBA. He hit 19 barrels but had just 7 homers to show for them. And that figured to pick up as KC moved in their fences. His K% of 22.4% was really pretty good in his first go around, and it was in line with his numbers in his (brief) time in the minors. The only major warning sign was a very low 4.1 LA, as we really want our sluggers to get the ball in the air (see Tatis Jr., Fernando). Modify that swing a little, and here we go!
Well, it’s better, but nowhere near what we hoped for. The LA has improved, though it’s still only an 8. Unfortunately, now the K’s are up to 30%. Oh, and the whole Royals team can’t hit, save for Bobby Witt Jr. He missed his last couple games, but it doesn’t look serious, and I remain an optimist! His power metrics look pretty good
He’s also got a 17.8% Blasts/Swing rate. That measures how often a batter squares up a ball with high bat speed, and he ranks 7th in the league among batters with at least 50 PA’s. It feels like this all has to come together for him soon.
.266, 9 HR, 38 Runs, 24 RBI, 3 Steals
I was kind of down on Steer in the last couple drafts, mostly because he was not actually a good baseball player and teams actually care more about that than the stats we like (go figure). He went 20-25 in 2024, and 21-7 last year, but they came with batting averages of .225 and .238 and subpar defense at a variety of positions. It looked kind of crowded in Cincy at the corners going into 2026, which sent him to the outfield, where he’s graded out negatively.
Well, the glove still isn’t the greatest, but his bat looks much better. He’s bumped his EV from 87.3 to 89%, his HardHit% from 33.2% to 39.4%, and his Barrel% from 7.6% to 12.9%. And he has not sold out for that added power, as his Contact% is actually at a career high 79.4%. It’s real solid production in a great home park, and depending on your format, he might also have 1B and 2B eligibility.
.264, 6 HR, 23 Runs, 21 RBI, 6 Steals
Speaking of multiple eligible guys in great ballparks, I bring you the A’s everyday 3B….at least for right now. Gelof started the year in the minors, and I mentioned him about a month ago as he took over at 3rd base and added that to OF and 2B for our leagues. He’s slowed down in the last couple weeks as far as the steals and homers go, but he’s on a 12 game hitting streak. Most importantly, his K% remains at a very playable 24.3%. There’s some playing time risk on the horizon as (The Other) Max Muncy will return from the IL soon, and his injury is what opened the door to Gelof in the first place.
.282, 4 HR, 22 Runs, 26 RBI, 11 Steals
Starting with a 70 PA cameo, here are McCarthy’s BA’s in odd years: .220, .243, .204
And they are in even years; .283, .285, .282
I should have seen this pop coming! Moving to Colorado definitely helped, but it was unclear he’d even get regular playing time. But Brendan Doyle and Jordan Beck both played poorly and/or got injured, and Mickey Moniak is now on the IL and yada yada yada, McCarthy plays every day, and it’s an Even Year, and he’s excellent. He’s long gone in deep leagues but very available in shallow formats and at best will get you low double digits homers. His career high is just 8. But he can help you with AVG and steals, and perhaps runs as he now leads off in Colorado, and the scoring should pop there in summer.
.222 8 HR, 35 Runs, 33 RBI, 5 Steal
I’ll pair these two since Judge’s absence improves the playing time picture for both. Dominguez is currently on the IL as a result of losing a battle with the left field fence a few weeks ago. But he’s back at some point this week and perhaps will get a regular run. It’s not totally clear, but if Dominguez does get to play, he can hit at a 20-20 full-season pace. He just can’t field, and DH is not at all open with one of Paul Goldschmidt or Ben Rice there now, and Giancarlo Stanton is working his way back. But Dominguez’s huge upside makes him a great spec shot here.
Grisham benefits a bit from Judge’s absence in that he no longer sits at all vs. lefties. But obviously, it hurts his counting stats. Barring a big surge, he’s not going to approach his 34 homer miracle of last season. And really, no one drafted him this year expecting a rerun. But he’s quietly turned himself into an overall solid hitter with a 12.4% Barrel%, 14.7% BB%, and 16.3% K%. His 15.7% Chase% is 100th percentile
We’ve eased into Deep League replacements here. Noot just came off the IL and should ease into every day AB’s for a surprisingly competitive Cardinals team. Health is always the issue here, but hey, maybe we got that out of the way! He’s got an elite 12.9% BB% for his career with power that could give you maybe 20 homers over a full season. I’m not sure if he’ll run at all as he’s coming off major heel surgery, but he’s usually in the high single digits range. And it’s now a good lineup!
The Angels have probably the worst team in MLB, but the good part of that is there’s plenty of opportunity to go around. They seem especially focused on adding one-time prospects who never stuck with their original organization, such as Meckler from the Giants. He’s 26 now and seems to have found something, as he had a 154 wRC+ in 138 minor league PA’s. He’s slashing .340/.392/.553 in his first 51 PA’s in Anaheim with 2 homers and 2 steals. Can he keep anything close to this up? Probably not as Steamer600 projects him for a .255 BA with 9 homers and 9 steals if he got 600 PA’s. And even though he’s batting 3rd, it’s part of an extremely meh lineup. Oh, and he’s strictly a strong side platoon bat, at least for now. But again, the playing time is wide open, and perhaps he’s truly found something. Projections can’t possibly catch the outliers, so it’s a nice flyer here in Deep Leagues.
