3B Ranks: A Smorgasbord Of Mid

Last week, I talked about the depressing state of first base. This week, it’s even worse. I’m about to fire up some Dashboard Confessional and put guyliner on this group. It’s a weak group. Somewhere, somehow, we need some youngsters to break out here.

There are some possibilities here that will be highlighted, of course. My main plan at third base is to not let it tank my season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is off my radar, for example. Too many injuries. I’m sitting it out and going for upside late.

My church had a potluck, and it made me think about third base. I didn’t get first in line, or second. I waited until the line was a sensible length, then got whatever looked safe to eat. Don’t go with the “mystery meat.” Get a sensible meatball/pasta/dessert combo. It won’t be the best thing you ever had, but it won’t ruin your digestive system either.

Note: I realize most drafts have happened, and it’s almost opening day. It’s not MY publishing schedule! Just enjoy and see if you lined up with my takes on it. I’m of course right, but you can disagree if you’re feeling frisky.

Tier 1: Meatballs at a potluck

1. Jose Ramirez: The veteran still has to be the top third baseman, but don’t be shocked if this is his last season with that label. He hit .280 with 33 HR and 44 SB last year, so it’s not a cliff. At age 33, the hard hit percentile dropped from 44 to 24, and bat speed dropped 2 mph. These are yellow lights, not flashing red ones. He’s first overall, don’t get me wrong. Just remember it could be .265 and 25/30 or something like that.

2. Junior Caminero: Any concern about moving to a regular ballpark affecting his numbers should be alleviated by the following:
A: He’s only 22. Improvement should be expected still.

B: He has the fastest swing (78 MPH) in the league.

C: Grey ranked him top 20 overall,

D: Projections still have his batting average the same at around .260, but still 35-40 HR. That’s good, and any improvement puts him at the top of third base.

Tier 2: It’s hard to screw up pasta

3. Manny Machado: You know you’re getting .270/30/80/90 at least with Manny Machado. Bankable. You know he’ll fill up your stats. I would draft him if earlier I picked, say, someone risky like Jackson Chourio, to balance out said risk. Because, like, pasta, he’s a safe player.

Tier 3: That meat looks like it may be undercooked

There is a sizeable gap here in ADP. Just like that chicken with bacon on it, but you haven’t checked its inside temperature.

4. Austin Riley: The skills are still there for Riley. He’s supposed to be healthy, and entering his age-29 season seems to be at a crossroads. It’s a gamble, but he said he had a normal offseason. Fantasy managers will have to get him late enough to make the risk acceptable. If he’s like your fifth hitter, you’re gold. If you’re counting on him for 30-100, you’re not so gold. To make a short story long, Riley is a good pick if you can get him after his ADP.

5. Maikel Garcia: In every draft I’ve been in, when Garcia is drafted the drafter says something like this: “I’m not excited about this, but if I didn’t take him here, there’s no more good 3B!” Tracks. Garcia is the guy to take when you’re scared there’s no more options. Reliable batting average, some steals, and a dash of power is a solid recipe.

6. Alex Bregman: Another steady but boring vet. It looked last year like he was going to have a star turn in Boston. In the first half, he was hitting .298/.380/.546 before suffering a significant quad strain. Sure as shootin’ he was right back about where he usually is at the end. Look at these batting averages since 2021: .270, .259, .262, .260, .273. His slugging all fits in a 40 point range in the same time frame, so expect more of the same for his power output (23 on average past four years). Stability is valuable.

7. Eugenio Suarez: Suarez returns to his roots in Cincinnati, and not sure why he’s so far down everyone’s ranks. I guess you need to look at his extreme splits; his last two seasons were each a good half and bad half. Problem is, 24 had a good second half, and 25 a spectacular first half. How much you believe in him going forward requires you to:

A: forget about the likely 200 strikeouts or so, and swallow the batting average, and

B: Assume the second half was related to a deal to Seattle, notoriously spot bad for power.

I haven’t drafted him because he’s 35 and I go younger, but third is so bad you may need to get a steady producer. Just make sure you pick the right half.

8. Jazz Chisholm: I know he’s a 30-30 guy and talks about going 20-50. He won’t. Being in the bottom ten percent of the league in whiff and K rate means he won’t get on enough. Barring BABIP magic, the average won’t be much above .250. He’s probably a bit low here, but I don’t want him in the second or third, so I put him just down far enough that I won’t have to make that choice.

9. Caleb Durbin: Maybe he can be a discount Alex Bregman in Boston. According to Statcast, he would have hit 18 home runs in Fenway Park, so maybe there’s some untapped power (11 last year). That’s what I would have thought, but then I looked at his Statcast page, and he’s in the bottom ten percent in hard hit, swing speed, barrel rate, exit velocity, and basically any metric that suggests a power breakout. Further suppressing his power is standing at 5 foot 6, 163 pounds.  But the role is safe, unlike most of the hooligans below.

10. Matt Chapman: League average stats. 20 HR, .240 BA, 70-70 for runs and ribbies. Cue the voice-over ad: “For the fantasy drafter in your life who needs some security in their roster.” Because that next tier, I won’t pick any before pick 200.

Tier 4: Crap, the deviled egg fell on the floor, but five second rule, right? Those are slippery little suckers. Well, I could take a fresh one, but is there really a difference?

That’s how I feel about this group. Is there really a difference? It’s all personal preference. I would have waited till after pick 200 for any of them. I’m not even ranking them I’m just going to write stuff. If you forced me to pick one, I would choose option C in a true-false quiz.

11. Addison Barger: This guy could be here or rank 30, just like the rest of the group. I like Barger’s power, and his role is safe if he can add outfield to his resume.

12. Munetaka Murakami: He could be here or be the new Chris Davis. I’ll bet after pick 200 on the light tower power, and the ADP is a hedge on the massive strikeout rate. Also can read about him here on this great site.

13. Alec Bohm: Bohm was quite frankly bad last year. I think I picked him up and dropped him at least 10 times in my home league. This year, he’s at cleanup, it seems. It’s good to be behind Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner. If Bohm can be that .280 hitter again, 100 RBI are in play, which is more than what you can say about anyone else in this tier.

14. Marcelo Mayer: Purely an upside play. He predictably struggled as most rookies do, but he does have good bat speed and hard hit rates. The former top-1o prospect does get dinged by injury, and of course might end up not being good at all. But where you pick him, that’s a fine risk.

15. Noelvi Marte: Same here, but no plate approach, which makes the floor way lower. That and the, you know, enhancements that he, in theory, has stopped. Think of him as Matt Chapman-lite, or at least a riskier Chapman.

16. Matt Shaw: Shaw lost his spot when Bregman was signed to man third, but should be able to garner at least 400 plate appearances, even more if someone is injured. The youngster has been learning the outfield too, and might have eligibility there and at second before the season’s over. If you need a guy who could back up OF, CI, and MI, Shaw is my favorite target. He has potential for .280/.350/.400 with a handful of home runs if he can settle in the utility role.

17. Kazuma Okamoto: No idea. None.  Probably safer than Murakami, but might not be. The guy is an open book. I wouldn’t take him for the upside, but for safe middling production.

18. Max Muncy: The Funky Muncy has battled injury, playing only 73 and 100 games the past two seasons. Max Muncy turns 35 this year, and I don’t expect that to get any better. If you could count on 130 games, he’s ahead of Chapman up there and out of Deviled Egg tier. Muncy would have the most league-altering potential on this list if he can stay in the lineup. After all, it was the Dreaded Oblique and a HBP last year that cost him, not like a back or anything.

****After a quick Google, it seems like he’s had the Dreaded Oblique two seasons in a row. Oh, the risk!

19. Royce Lewis: Seems like Lewis’ myriad of leg injuries has sapped his baseball ability. Maybe he can catch lightning in a bottle. Probably not. He finally played over 100 games and hit 13 home runs with a .237 average. Thanks for the memories, Royce.

20. Carlos Correa: Just seems old, even if he’s only 31. His bat speed was down two mph, and the contact metrics took a dive, even if his counting stats were solid. I have him as a CI bat as my last hitter, and that seems right.