Bias is an interesting thing. Before Grimmace, the New York Mets were left for dead in DFS contests. Soon Francisco Lindor caught fire and so followed the rest of the Mets. They have been the best offensive team over the past 30 days and just yesterday, on a 3 game slate, they were highly owned against MacKenzie Gore. The Mets stacked RHBs against a pitcher who strikes out right-handed batters. I saw this as a poor play. It was until the 9th inning when the Mets exploded for 6 runs against a usually solid Hunter Harvey.
In DFS, we cannot hope to win if we follow recency bias. Not only are we going to be rostering the higher owned plays, but we might be rostering the lesser plays while better plays are obviously staring us in the face. What teams tonight might go too highly owned? I am going to speculate that the Yankees who face Graham Ashcraft will generate some ownership. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are obviously two of the best players in the league, but NYY in general have high GB rates and their wRC+ has been slipping as a team to just above average over the last 30 days. Shohei Ohtani is also likely to be popular with such a good matchup vs. Ryne Nelson, but even during this hot streak he has only produced 30 points scores twice and many of his other scores would sink you for the $6,700 he costs to roster.
Think twice about the players you are rostering today. Are you making choices based on recency bias (not all of these are bad, but many are not optimal) or are you taking a unique look at today’s slate and trying to highlight all of the best opportunities?
- COL and MIL both are great options to stack tonight. However, MILs top plays are expensive and will affect what SPs and sub stacks you can roster. COL is still a team with an 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days and easily slip into periods of ineffectiveness.
- No team has hit more HRs than BAL (56 over the past 30 with the next closest team being NYM at 41). They consistently go deep. George Kirby is not usually someone worth attacking, but BAL will be completely unowned tonight and they always have slate winning upside.
- You need HRs to win DFS contests. A few of today’s popular teams haven’t hit for much power lately: MIL, HOU, ARI, ATL while some of the less popular teams have: COL, SFG.
That is all the time I have for today’s article. Check out My Twitter later on today for a complete table of all the relevant stats and notes for today’s slate.
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Grayson Rodriguez, SP: $9,400 – Rodriguez will be pitching opposite George Kirby, which will require him to be on his game in order to achieve a ceiling type score. He should have that opportunity vs. a team with a 28% K rate. GrayRod has a 13% swK rate which should keep SEA swinging and missing. The last time he faced SEA he only threw 82 pitches (24 FPs), but has been getting close to 100 every time out lately.
Hayden Wesneski, SP: $6,300 – It’s a good slate to roster two pay up options at SP, but I always like to highlight a pay down option. When Wesneski started, he averaged 14 points with a high score of 27. PHI is without its top two LHBs and the lineup is somewhat compromised. The wind is supposed to be blowing out in Wrigley, but it’s still a bit early to know for sure. There’s a possibility Wesneski puts up a ceiling game vs this new PHI team that has a 24% K rate recently.
Ben Rice, 1B: $2,500 – You will probably read all about Ben Rice today. Ashcraft is pretty susceptible to lefties and Rice has been hitting the ball very well in his short stint in the majors. He has 3 barrels already and no HRs to show for it. He’s a great piece to start with on your rosters. I would hesitate from stacking the high priced Yankees simply because they are likely to be high owned, but Rice is an exception.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B: $3,700 – I was trying to convince my co-owner to trade for Rodgers in a dynasty league. He pointed out that Rodgers rarely adds countable stats like HRs or SBs, but he has been batting over .3o0 the past two months. As a 27 year old former first round pick, I am willing to spend this price to roster a middle of the order bat on Rodgers despite his lack of countables. He has hit safely in 21 straight starts in Coors.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $3,300 – The Diamondbacks have not given up on Suarez and neither should DFS players. Bobby Miller is very shaky on the mound and LA plays in a good HR park, something Suarez is good at. The price is right and his contact has been much better over the past month.
Elly De La Cruz, SS: $6,200 – The Reds are not a bad team to take a gamble on today, but especially Elly. People are going to have a hard time paying up for SS and will likely look to Witt who is seemingly more dependable. Elly has “had to have it” skills and Gil has been in a slump these past two starts, struggling with control. Elly is a good play if low owned.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: $5,400 – The unsung hero of the Dodgers is in an offensive surge this season and especially of late. There is no better matchup for DFS than the Dodgers at home against Ryne Nelson. Teoscar is also somewhat affordable as a spend up and he can give you all the upside you need
Jackson Chourio, OF: $3,700 – Looking for a nice mid-tier play? Chourio has been reducing his K rate all season and really becoming the player MIL hoped for when they signed him to the big contract. He has moved up in the order and is a steal in Coors tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Tampa Bay and Kansas City will fight the rain to get their game in. Stay tuned near lock for more info on this game.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Nothing grabbing my attention from Vegas today.
