Folks love a large slate. What folks don’t love is a large slate when the starting pitchers in said slate is a Who’s Who of Who?! Between the poor performers and solid guys in bad matchups, it can be tough to pick even one SP to try and trust in your lineup, much less two.
But there’s still a way to find your way to finding your starters, even if there aren’t obvious plays. First, check your weather for potential advantages to help break ties. Lower temperature games will often give SP an advantage and air pressure (higher) and humidity (lower) can provide edge for those arms in more favorable situations. Then check your Vegas odds to look for the lowest number and which team has the best odds of winning.
For Wednesday’s slate, it looks like Jon Niese has the edge with favorable weather conditions, great park factors at home and Vegas has that game pegged low at seven runs, with the Mets a decent favorite.
Have fun using that process to find who you want to start in a considerably ugly slate.
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Jon Niese, P: $7,600 – As described above, Niese has a lot of things going for him. Additionally, his opponent, the Phillies, have been fifth worst against lefties with this current roster.
Lance Lynn, P: $8,700 – I was all set to go with Gio Gonzalez here…until Vegas chimed in. The runs total in the Brewers/Cardinals game is 7 while the Nationals/Red Sox is 8.5 with the Red Sox carrying the favorite. Lynn is very solid and, while I don’t prefer the matchup, he’s got the ability to strike some Brewers out.
Stephen Vogt, C: $3,600 – Vogt is underpriced considering his power potential from the catcher slot and is in a decent offensive environment in Houston against a RHP.
Miguel Montero, C: $3,400 – With the Reds throwing Jason Marquis on the hill Montero, who has been hitting at least sixth in the lineup, might be a nice buy down here.
Kennys Vargas, 1B: $4,300 – Vargas lit up RHP at home last season (.370 wOBA, .238 ISO) and gets Edinson Volquez rolling with the game total at eight runs right now.
Mark Canha, 1B: $3,200 – Same with this guy as with Vogt. He’s underpriced significantly given his spot in the second hole of the A’s lineup and his YTD above average hard hit ball factors.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $4,100 – Well, since the Sox game is going to be the high game of the day, we might as well get on it with some Pedroia, who historically hits lefties well (.374 wOBA) and especially at home vs. LHP (.405 wOBA).
Hanley Ramirez, SS: $4,800 – Why not Hanley, too? Hanley also loves to face the lefties (.394 wOBA) and has been seeing the ball well so far in 2015, with his plate discipline numbers very high.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,400 – The Vegas number is low, but Arenado has been hitting the ball real hard, with a 193 hard contact rating so far this season. Tim Lincecum may own the Padres, but it remains to be seen if he can master the hard-hitting Rockies.
Adam Jones, OF: $4,900 – I am not an advocate of chasing someone because he’s hot, but even looking at the individual variables, Jones looks like a good play again when Nathan Eovaldi comes into Baltimore. Jones is enjoying a hard hit ball run like Arenado and has always slugged well in Camden Yards.
Chris Coghlan, OF: $3,800 – Coghlan is batting cleanup for the Cubs against RHP and the Reds are running Jason Marquis out at Wrigley Field. Like Hanley Ramirez, Coghlan is also seeing the ball well, although early with small sample sizes, but he’s at a 16% walk rate to go with his hard hit rating of 177.
Danny Santana, OF: $4,200 – The Royals/Twins game is a solid 8 for runs and Santana has hit well against RHP even at Target Field.
Corey Dickerson, OF: $4,200 – Love getting Dickerson down at 4.2K, even on the road away from Coors. Lincecum is allowing more contact than ever in his career and Corey is just the guy to make him pay for that.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
For such a large slate, there is only one game that’s currently tracking even 30% chance for storms and that’s Atlanta at home against Miami. Being an early game, it may not impact many players. Check the weather anyway throughout the day to make sure your players, and especially your SP, aren’t in any danger of a wash out.
Doing Lines In Vegas
We’ve commented on the lines throughout the picks here, but the clear leaders as I write this are the Nationals/RedSox at 8.5, along with the Yankees/Orioles. On the other side, the Padres (Petco!) hosting the Diamondbacks have a 6.5 number.
