Last year’s schmohawk posts were Alex Bregman, Joey Gallo, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu and Kris Bryant. Welp, four out five ain’t bad. I crushed four of those so hard it was like I Mola Ram’d my hand into their chest so decisively, some of them were unable to come back from it. Somewhere, Kris Bryant is still walking with his head lowered, kicking rocks at some of the weak-sauce grounders he’s hitting to the 2nd baseman. Imagine you could ruin careers with your typed words — THAT IS MY POWER! I am a responsible enough adult that I can handle doling out this sort of punishment, but I promise you, I go to sleep every night, praying each of my schmohawks will be able to start up a new career after I decimate them with my (s)words.
“Lord, I know you are busy, but please, if you have a moment, let Joey Gallo start a career as a pretzel salesman at a well-attended circus. Or whatever he wants to do. Thank you, and keep in touch, big homey!” That’s me knelt by my Cal-King, 45,000-count linen sheet-covered bed. Just an adult, doing adult shizz. Now, allow me to unsheathe my adjectives, unholster my nouns, something-something-out some verbs! Today’s dressing down comes at the expense of Dominic Smith. En garde! is what I scream as I eat a Snickers bar, while perusing Statcast. You’re done for, pal! So, what can we expect from Dominic Smith for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
First, let’s look at Dominic Smith’s surface area stats and projections from 3rd person sources: Last year in that jizzoke of a season, he went 27/10/42/.316/0 in 177 ABs, and *shakes head* I can’t even believe I’m writing this post. Seriously, if y’all wanna do boneheaded shizz I should just let you. Any hoo! Previously, his best season in Triple-A was 16/1/.330 in 457 ABs with a .380 BABIP. More on that in a moment. Our hitter projections this year for Dom: 67/22/75/.248/3 in 500 ABs. Best comps in our projections are Eduardo Escobar, Jeimer Candelario, Nate Lowe, and Miguel Cabrera. Any ideas where those guys are going in drafts compared to Dominic Smith? Later and/or much later are acceptable answers.
As mentioned in my top 20 1st basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball, I do think Steamer’s a bit low on him for his batting average. For that average, it has him at a .298 BABIP, which feels low for him. A .320 BABIP with his line drive rate (25%) feels more appropriate and that should produce around a .280 average. Maybe that gets up to .290 or .300. Would take some luck, but let’s just give him that boost on average. He has no speed, and questionable playing time. So, there’s only one other thing he could have going for him: power. If he hits 30+ homers and .280+, then he’s worth his ADP and price at drafts. Can he hit 30 homers? That feels like taking the ceiling off his ceiling, grabbing onto a beanstalk, climbing up about four hundred stories, latching a grappling hook on a passing hot air balloon basket that gets its netting caught in a passing lear jet, and going up another 50,000 feet.
Hey, anything’s possible, but this is a guy who’s never even sneezed near 20 homers in a season during pro ball, minors or majors. His expected home runs last year was nine, and he hit eight no doubters. A guy hits eight no doubters, has an obvious lefty platoon looming and y’all are drafting him like he’s as good as Anthony Rizzo. This feels very silly. No one’s actually drafting him where’s his current ADP is, right? Please tell me you’re not. His Launch Angle went down last year — okay, super for line drives, but what is going on? He’s a 20/.280 hitter who might not get 450 ABs. On a personal level, Dom Smith seems awesome. I want to hang out with him. While we’re hanging out, I will insist we draft from about fifteen other first basemen. Sorry, life’s too short, i.e., carpe diem, but don’t carpe Dom.
