Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (23) | 2013 (24) | 2012 (27) | 2011 (11) | 2010 (18)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [73-89] NL East
AAA: [66-78] International League – Lehigh Valley
AA: [66-76] Eastern League – Reading
A+: [49-89] Florida State League – Clearwater
A: [53-84] South Atlantic League – Lakewood
A(ss): [33-43] New York-Penn League – Williamsport

Graduated Prospects
Ken Giles, RHP | Cesar Hernandez, 3B

The Gist
The rebuilding process has begun in Philadelphia with an aging core and bloated contracts on their way out between now and 2017. Cole Hamels returned from offseason surgery to have another great season in 2014, and he could either be a part of the next good Phillies team or trade bait for some nice prospects along the way. The younger talent is already starting to arrive. Ken Giles emerged as a major force in the bullpen and could be the next closer once Papelbon is gone. Maikel Franco is on the verge of being an everyday player and should be an asset in fantasy leagues soon. The farm system is relatively thin, but there are some toolsy prospects in there. They are just too far away to be relevant in most leagues at the moment. If the organization is able to move veterans in trade this year and next, the farm could get very healthy very quickly. The Phillies’ first round pick in 2014 was Aaron Nola – a college arm that has a good shot at cracking the rotation in the spring of 2016.

Top Ten Fantasy Prospects

1. Maikel Franco, 3B | Age: 22 | ETA: 2015

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
556 64 134 33 4 16 78 5.4% 14.6% 3 1 .257 .299 .428

J.P. Crawford will likely top most non-fantasy Phillies lists this winter, but Franco is still the best fantasy prospect in this system. There is 20-25 home run potential at the hot corner, and given the current state of third base that’s nothing to sneeze at. His stock has been on a roller coaster. 2013 was a big year, but was followed by a struggle in the first half of 2014. He turned it back on in the second half with seven homers in August alone. He is currently tied for second in homers during winter league play in the Dominican. It may be in Franco’s best interest to start the year in Triple-A with Cody Asche still in the picture, but he should eventually take over the starting gig at third. A move to first base could be in his future once Ryan Howard is gone but that’s a few yards down the road. Either way, Franco can be a power hitter with a .260/.270ish average and good counting stats in the middle of the Phillies lineup. He’s a key to their current rebuild and a good buy-low in dynasty leagues.

2. J.P. Crawford, SS | Age: 19 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
538 69 132 23 0 11 48 12.1% 13.9% 24 14 .285 .375 .406

Crawford should join Franco as the future left side of the Phillies’ infield. There are some really good shortstop prospects out there right now, and Crawford isn’t far behind the elite crop. He can play good defense at short, which will help him stick at the position. His offense is just as impressive though. The 19-year-old earned a promotion to High-A Clearwater mid-season, where he was one of the ten youngest players at the High-A level. He held his own, slashing .275/.352/.407 with eight homers, seven doubles, and ten steals in 63 games. Baseball America ranked him #2 in that particular league for 2014. There is the potential for Crawford to be the type of offensive-minded shortstop that provides a ton of fantasy value with his combination of power and speed.

3. Aaron Nola, RHP | Age: 21 | ETA: 2015

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
4 3 2.93 12 11 0 55.1 49 19 18 8 1.6 7.3 .240

This year the Phillies went with a college arm as their top pick, drafting LSU’s Nola 7th overall. He already has some polish and could need very little time in the minors before getting his chance in the Phillies’ starting rotation. In fact, he has already spent time in Double-A in his first season. Nola struck out 15 batters and walked five in 24 innings at the level. Both his fastball and changeup are plus pitches, and he has a slider that’s graded as average. Baseball America tagged Nola’s change as the best in this year’s draft class. Another reason he may be close to major league ready is his excellent control. While other young pitchers are trying to work on limiting their walks and commanding their fastball, Nola has already shown an ability to do those things at the ripe old age of 21.

4. Roman Quinn, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2016

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
382 51 84 10 3 7 36 9.4% 20.9% 32 12 .257 .343 .370

The big question surrounding Quinn is his hit tool and whether he will be able to hit enough in the majors to allow his 80 speed to do its thing. Quinn, a switch-hitter, tried to answer that concern in this year’s Arizona Fall League, where he hit .250/.361/.359 with two homers and 14 steals. The steals total led the league and he was caught only twice in the process. It’s important to note that Quinn ruptured his Achilles tendon last spring. It was a big blow since he had also missed the second half of 2013 with a wrist injury. He was moved from shortstop to center field this season (although it wasn’t a huge deal after playing there in high school). Between the lost time and switching to a new position, I’d consider Quinn’s 2014 to be a big success. He should see time with Reading in the Eastern League this season and could be ready for the bigs at some point in 2016.

5. Jesse Biddle, LHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2015

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
5 10 4.58 19 19 0 94.1 82 61 48 12 4.9 8.8 .234

Biddle’s season was an interesting one to say the least. He suffered a concussion in late May after being hit in the head with a piece of hail the size of a tennis ball. Not an exaggeration. Knowing that, it’s hard to knock him for falling apart in June, when he gave up 22 earned runs (six homers) in just 15.2 innings. He was then shut down to “get his mind right” as Ruben Amaro put it and never really got it going again in 2014. More bad news came recently when Biddle was sent home from the Puerto Rican winter league due to mild elbow tendinitis. Strip all of the crazy mishaps in 2014 away and you’re left with a decent arm. With a plus fastball and curve, Biddle still looks like a mid-rotation starter. He was expected to get a shot in late 2014 after a 2013 season in which he struck out 154 batters in 138 Double-A innings, but things obviously changed course. 2015 should give him a fresh start and another crack at the rotation at some point in the season.

6. Dylan Cozens, OF | Age: 20 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
556 69 126 25 6 16 62 7.2% 26.4% 23 7 .248 .303 .415

This system gets really murky after the top five, and you could shuffle the deck from 5-12 without much argument from me. Cozens has plus power and showed it in games this season with his 16 homers and 25 doubles for Lakewood. He also has at least average speed. Should those tools continue to shine when he eventually advances to a tougher test in Double-A, Cozens could be a real asset in the outfield. He’s currently playing in the Australian League and still needs time to develop at just 20 years old. The strikeout rate is higher than you’d like to see and he may never be a player that hits for a good average, but keep an eye on him. If he repeats his performance in what will be just his second full season, Cozens’ stock will rise quickly.

7. Carlos Tocci, OF | Age: 19 | ETA: 2018

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
538 59 118 18 8 2 30 4.6% 17.8% 10 11 .242 .297 .324

Tocci is another outfielder with raw tools and some upside in the Phillies system. First, Tocci is still really young. He played the entire season at Lakewood as an 18-year-old, and was the third youngest player in the Sally. He’s the type of player whose stats make you scratch your head, but the scouting reports are pretty positive given his age and the aggressive path Philly has taken with his development. Second, Tocci looks really skinny. It’s hard to imagine him hitting for any kind of power but then you remember he just turned 19 and there is still time to add some muscle. If it all comes together, Tocci has the potential to contribute with his bat and his legs at the highest level – but it will take a good deal of patience as he still has a long way to go.

8. Jesmuel Valentin, 2B | Age: 20 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
511 81 123 24 9 7 47 8.0% 15.3% 25 8 .273 .341 .412

Valentin was one half of the return the Phillies received for pitcher Roberto Hernandez. No one tool stands out, but Valentin does a little of everything. The Dodgers had selected the switch-hitter in the first round of the 2012 draft (51st overall) and Valentin spent most of the season in the Midwest League as part of their organization. He’s a good target in fantasy thanks to average power that could play up at Citizens Bank Park and plus speed from a shallow second base position. Ruben Amaro Jr. has taken some heat for moves (or lack thereof) recently with the Phillies, but Valentin was part of a strong return for Hernandez and could be a major league regular at the keystone when the Phillies are competitive again.

9. Cord Sandberg, OF | Age: 19 | ETA: 2018

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
284 33 62 5 3 6 24 3.9% 19.8% 8 3 .235 .267 .345

Sandberg wasn’t pushed as aggressively as Tocci and spent the entire year in the NYPL. Hitting from the left side, Sandberg has plus power and and at least average speed. It’s the hit tool that still has question marks, but Sandberg only recently started focusing on baseball only. He should see the Sally League next year as a 19-year-old in what will be his first full season of pro ball. There are lots of raw tools here just like Tocci, but it will take time for them to fully develop. If everything breaks right he could end up being a nice commodity in fantasy with a chance for 20/20 seasons. If not, his path may be that of a fourth outfielder and irrelevant in most fantasy leagues. Patience will be warranted with him as he moves through the system.

10. Luis Encarnacion, 1B | Age: 17 | ETA: 2019

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
154 18 32 8 1 2 15 5.8% 25.3% 1 0 .229 .294 .343

I was torn as to which way to go with this last spot. Aaron Altherr is a closer (safer) bet, while Jose Pujols has flashed some serious raw power albeit with a nasty strikeout rate. At the end of the day it’s Encarnacion who gets the nod this year. The Phillies signed him when he was first eligible in 2013 and this season was his first taste of pro ball. As a 16-year-old, he was the youngest player in the Gulf Coast League. Along with Rafael Devers of the Red Sox, Encarnacion was regarded as one of the best international prospects available in 2013. According to Baseball America’s reports on him at the time of his signing, he has the potential to hit for both average and power from either first base or left field in the majors. At just 17 years old, he’s a lottery ticket in deep dynasty leagues.

Phillies Previews2014 | 2013

NL Top 10 Index

 
  1. Swfcdan says:
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    No Phillies talk im afraid (though am a Franco owner) but I’ve got a trade question for ya. Might have a chance of getting Baez or Correa (both still on prospect rosters) in a keeper league. I wouldn’t have to promote either until im ready to do so and they are producing.

    Are you still high on both? I figure struggles are common for a rook so you have to kinda expect that early on, the majority do after all. If the owner’s soured on Baez feel it might be a good buying opportunity. Everyone was saying he’s the next best thing since porn once he arrived after all.

    Or would you be scared of Baez plate discipline long term, in that case Correa the better target?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Depends on the asking prices, but yes I’m still high on both. Seems like the value with prospects is at its peak just before they hit the majors (and haven’t exposed their flaws) then it almost swings too far the other way when they struggle out of the gate, making it a chance to buy at a better price. Baez is boom or bust, but the boom could be really loud.

      Mike Schmidt hit .196 his rookie year and he turned out okay.

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Mike: I think it’s the crazy high K (and low BB) %s that worry people though, he has worst plate discipline than most rookies entering the league (including Mike Schmidt im sure). I agree though im hoping people have soured on him now, and I can get him and let him stew in my minors another year before hopefully unleashing him in ’16.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Yup, I think you’ve got the right idea. Grab him now while the other owner is down on him and let him cook in your minors. That’s cool that you aren’t forced to roster him even though he lost his rookie status. Baez’s plate discipline was atrocious, but should improve. Guessing he’ll always be a 25% or higher guy though. Schmidt was 31% his first year (443 PA) – sorry I couldn’t help but look him up.

  2. Swfcdan says:
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    Crazy news on Biddle, a tennis ball sized hail? We just don’t get that sort of extreme weather here in England, ever. How often would you get a crazy hailstorm like that, everyone would just shelter inside and wait it out usually I guess? But not surprising some people get caught in it. Here just wear a hat and you’re good to go out in it, never gets bigger than the size of a pea.

    Always feel England and our US friends are similar in many ways, but when it comes to extreme weather events (hurricanes/earthquakes/mass snowfall etc) we certainly are not!

    • de nachos says:
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      @Swfcdan: I didn’t know about Biddle’s hail storm injury either but I knew about his mental break shut down. I thought he was curse with Greinke’s head without Greinke’s talent.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        yup. I think it’s weird that that part of the story doesn’t always come up when mentioning the “mental” trouble. If I got whacked in the head by a piece of hail that big I’d have trouble focusing too. A Reading news article mentioned he’s had concussions previously when he was younger.

  3. El Famous Burrito says:
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    Probably too far away for a Top 10, but how do you feel about Jose Pujols?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I was considering him at the 10 spot with Encarnacion. Big raw power but not a great approach from what I’ve read on him (33% K rate supports that). So lots of upside but very risky. I’d take a flier on him in deep dynasties where most of the prospects are owned and lottery tickets like him are easier to stash.

  4. Lville Jim says:
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    If Correa gets off to a hot start this upcoming season at Corpus Christi do you see him getting promoted before June or will the Astros let him marinate until September? They didn’t hesitate much with Springer last season.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      My guess is he’s a late-season call-up this year and 2016 is the full on ETA.

  5. Gonzo_The_Great says:
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    Man the Phils do like their prospects “toolsy”…

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      haha…indeed!

  6. Jack says:
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    Trying to decide who to keep in a 10-keeper OBP league. Limited number of bench spots, so if I keep more than one prospect, it makes it difficult to compete this season. Help me pick 2 of the following major league players: Betts ($2), Soler ($2), Pederson ($2)

    …and 1 of the following minor league players: Buxton ($6 and rapidly inflating), Correa ($2), Russell ($2), C. Seager ($2)

    Leaning toward Betts, Soler and Correa/Russell.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I would lean the same way. I would go with Soler, Betts, and Correa

      • Jack says:
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        @Mike: Thanks, Mike!

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          anytime man

  7. goodfold2 says:
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    sucks for me that altherr fell out of it.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: this of course, could say more about PHI in general improving more than altherr getting worse.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        Yup, he’s in that mix in the back half of the top 10-12 guys. You could make a case for him over guys like Sandberg and Tocci since he’s actually been tested at a higher level (AA) and managed double digit homers and steals. I own him in a 30-teamer. He was cheap to acquire and there’s a chance he takes an outfield spot. Not a bad player to own at all.

  8. John says:
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    Hey Mike , I have Franco in dynasty and have Kendrys at CI and need an OF. Is Michael Saunders enough in return for Kendrys in weekly dynasty or shoot higher?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I might aim a little higher. Franco could see time at Triple-A again to start the year, which would leave you minus a corner. No knock on Saunders, but I bet you can get more for Morales if you shop a bit, or at least ask for a throw-in corner that can hold Franco’s spot until he’s up for good.

  9. MB says:
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    Hey Mike, I didnt get to ask with your Nats post, which was great as well. Any chance at all Giolito pitches this season?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Thanks man. I really don’t think so. He just hasn’t logged that many innings in the minors yet with the TJS and the Nats rotation has some depth without pushing him. I think 2016 is the ETA.

  10. goodfold2 says:
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    ok, 30 man dynasty with huge rosters and room for 25 minor leaguers. i currently do to extended contracts/tags/rookie deals have these starters and minor guys. holds/OPS 6X6. 1 C/2 CI/ 2 MI/ 3 OF/1 util. 3 SP/ 3 RP/ 3 P.
    C: D’Arnaud (.4 till end of 2016)
    CI: Beltre (franchised for 18 million this year)
    MI: Alcides (3 Mil for this year only)
    MI: Segura (6.4 till end of 2016)
    OF: A-Jax (6.4 till end of 2016)
    OF: Leonys (3.1 till end of 2016)
    OF: Legares (franchised at whatever cheap real life price he gets)
    SP: Liriano (11.5 till end of 2016)
    Quintana (6.4 till end of 2016)
    Sale (6.425 till end of 2016)
    Ervin (restricted deal, so whatever he’s bid up to i can match, which probably will be less than his real life deal)
    RP: Melancon (6.421 till end of 2016)
    Fien (.4 till end of 2016)
    these prospects
    CI: H.Morris/Kubitza/L.Jimenez
    MI: Drury/Gumbs (NYY)/Lee (TB)/Rosario/C.Phelps/Salcedo
    OF: Altherr/V.Reyes (ATL)/Wates (MIA)
    SP: Heredia/Urena/Ynoa/Hale
    RP: Tonkin/R.Alvarez/M.Cabrera (ATL)
    Guy is offering me his Watson (PIT), who would replace Legares as my last tag (i’d pay whatever arbitrater gives him, on franchise tag), and 1 of these three: L.Encarnacion/T.Danish (WSOX)/5th round pick (worth very little) for my R.J.Alvarez. Legares would go back into biddable free agent pile. I’m thinking RP are so fickle that to assume Watson would be as good as last year is silly. In this very league i was able to extremely cheaply get h.rondon and machi preseason in bids. Legares isn’t worth much, but he is a starter, and these aren’t usually cheap.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Agreed. I would much rather protect Lagares. That’s a nice pitching staff you have for that deep of a league.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Mike: yeah, when i took this team over almost exactly a year ago it’s hitters were slightly better, i traded prado/OAK’s SS (name i forget, he’s very injury prone but used to hit a decent amount of homers, not last year), it already had Sale/Ervin, but i traded for erasmo and estrada (yuck, lost griffin in one of those deals)/but also liriano and Quintana. i had to trade some decent prospects (velasquez/d.robertson (OAK)/1st round pick) but got quintana and segura. I also traded about a year ago for alcides. Legares was traded for, but damn cheap. I also had somebody offer me like 4 prospects (a couple of them pretty decent) and a bunch of picks for Sale (that package actually included Hamels, but at the time we were worried about his preseason injury status)

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Very cool…I really like that Segura/Quintana deal for you. Those leagues are a lot of fun.

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Mike: i also simply dropped beltran to have enough money to win drury in last year’s mid season bidding process. I also had to give up jagielo in that quintana/segura deal. I’m super weak at CI/OF prospects, and shallow in P’s. I have a lot of weak picks this year where i’ll likely draft depth at those slots, maybe even 1 catcher, as i have no prospect catchers, but the best or 2nd best up and coming one with D’Arnaud of course. A lot of these PHI guys available to draft in a couple of months, in Nola/Cozens/Tocci/Pujols/Valentin/Sandberg unowned.

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              Can’t say I’m surprised those Philly names are available. Nola is a nice target.

              • goodfold2 says:
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                @Mike: hope he’s around when i draft my first player at pick 51 (possibly lower if there’s some really big restricted free agents whose offers aren’t matched), probably not.

                • Mike

                  Mike says:
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                  yeah probably a long shot but you never know

                  • goodfold2 says:
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                    @Mike: he’ll certainly be a top target. One thing i just noticed is that my draft (5 rounds, i have picks at (barring compensatory picks of course) 51,62,65,81,101,105,126 and 146), and there’s no way you’ll have all 30 teams done by then, so i’ll have many questions. I’ll go from last year’s lists and ask if certain guys have gone up or down, and if any new names are higher than the ones i have per team.

                    • goodfold2 says:
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                      @goodfold2: since i have 8 picks coming up, i’ll have to move up or drop 3 guys. I’ll move up Hale, and have to drop 2 more. which 2. i would think 2 out of tonkin/l.jimenez/c.phelps/

                    • Mike

                      Mike says:
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                      I dropped Phelps in a very similar league. Flip a coin between the other two.

                    • Mike

                      Mike says:
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                      no problem

  11. Swfcdan says:
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    Hi Mike could Gregory Polanco be a good buy low this offseason? Might have a chance of getting him in my keeper league, he’s still a prospect in our league and don’t have to promote unless I want. Seems despite his low AVG he was still on pace for a 15/30 season as expected, and his other peripherals scream improvement (only 60Ks and 30BBs), his BABIP must have been wretched for some reason. I feel these kinda guys are good targets as hype wears off when they initially struggle, and most prospects struggle! Seems like Polanco could easily become a clone of teammate Marte, and maybe even better due to his improved plate discipline.

    Out of a choice of Giolito, Dahl and Polanco (all prospects for our league) how would you rank them?

    • Swfcdan says:
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      @Swfcdan: Add Baez and Correa to that bottom list as im being greedy.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        Baez/Polanco, Correa, Giolito, Dahl

        I think the first two are a coin flip but get the edge over the others due to being MLB ready. Ton of upside in Dahl. He is one of my favorites but still kind of far away.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Yup, depending on the price of course.

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Mike: Thanks, ill probably be dealing C Davis who’s locked down for 2 more years at $12. A decent price but I’ve got too many keepers right now, so looking to move a few for prospects.

        Like the idea of buying low on the Baez/Polanco types? They should certainly cost less now than when they arrived in the show with the next superstud labels on them.

        Of course if I get either the next question is whether to promote them starting next year…lol

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          anytime. I like that price for Davis, but if he’s an extra piece for you I understand trading for specs. I do like the idea of grabbing Baez or Polanco and stashing them. I could see Baez’s value pumping up the most over the course of this year since he can offer a lot of power from the middle infield.

          • Swfcdan says:
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            @Mike: Yeah when I signed Davis and Kipnis to 3 and 2 year deals for $12 each after 2013 I thought I’d found some super-keepers! Funny how things change in a year in fantasy isn’t it lol, still have hope for both to rebound though, in fact you could say Kipnis is even more likely as he is proven for longer. He just seemed to be affected by an injury which sapped his power, his offseason routine was apparently to bulk up more to hit for more power- that was a disaster so good news is he’s scrapping it and going back to his old routine so hopefully see similar results.

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              nice…didn’t Davis have an oblique issue at one point last season too?

              • Swfcdan says:
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                @Mike: Yeah true he did. Anyway heard back from the owner and seems he won’t offer up Polanco for Davis now, don’t think i moving Davis in that case…

                Only player of any interest he offered is Dahl, but he’s much too far away to take straight up right? It’s an OBP league so Davis is much less of a burden on OBP, still think he can earn 30 bucks next year so not giving him away easily. Told him to up the offer or Davis ain’t moving.

                • Mike

                  Mike says:
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                  yeah, I’d want more than Dahl for him if you’re anywhere near competing this year

                  • Swfcdan says:
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                    @Mike: Exactly and iam competitive, finished 4th last year. Case of screw you and look for better offers lol. 3 new teams now and they are pretty weak ones so im sure they’ll be active in the trade market.

                    • Mike

                      Mike says:
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                      nice

  12. Alan says:
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    In reading about your MIL prospects, do you know anything about Gilbert Lara?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      BA had him #5 among the Int’l prospect class this past year. Evaluators saying he won’t stick at short, maybe even first base or left field when it’s all said and done. Plus raw power, but obviously very far away still.

  13. tyler daniels says:
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    hey was wondering how migual alfredo gonzalez was looking dont see him mentioned in any of the phillies prospects these days, but i mean they gave him a big (ish) contract, what do you see as his future?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Yeah, it’s funny because he is listed as losing his rookie status in 2014 (B-Ref) but obviously hasn’t pitched more than a handful of innings yet. Either way, I just don’t see much to get excited about. He’s 28 years old and looks like he is getting stretched out to start for the Phils in 2015. I’m not sure he is more than a #5/swing man and that along with his age keeps him out of these rankings.

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