Fantasy Baseball Advice

Kelvim’s at Absolute Zero

June 12, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 95 Comments →

Kelvim Escobar was sent to the bullpen.  His value goes from potentially good to potentially nothing.  Scioscia said Escobar will be pitching out of the bullpen for the rest of the season.  Scioscia also said Brandon Wood would start at shortstop two years ago and said Arredondo, the guy now in the minors, would be the closer and he said Rex Hudler’s got the best herb, when he wants to get wiggy with Figgy.  Escobar will probably start games again in a month or two.  But even if that is the case, he’s about as good to you now as those X-ray glasses you bought out of the back of a comic book when you were twelve.  Matt Palmer gets a boost in value, which is to say he actually has value now.   Palmer’s K/9 is 5.48.  Not great.  His BABIP is .228, that’s pretty lucky.  He’s rocking a 4.06 ERA right now, that’ll go up.  In AL-Only leagues, Palmer’s worth a spot, but he’s probably on a team already.  In mixed leagues, 15 or deeper?  Sure, but I wouldn’t touch him in 12 team leagues outside of matchups.  Friday vs. the Padres is a good matchup.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ervin Santana – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Member when he was only good at home?  Yeah, now he’s not good anywhere.  I think he’s headed for the Disgraceful List.

Matt Joyce – The return of Burrell pushes Joyce back to Triple-A.  Hopefully, he gets a real chance at some point.

Pat Burrell – He skipped his Single-A rehab assignment and, instead, will sit the bench for the next six games then be back in the DH spot when interleague’s over.  This is fascinating to me.  He was going to DH in a rehab game?  So he gets four ABs against a Single-A pitcher?  He couldn’t get that in batting practice?  Then he returns to sit the bench for a week?  The guy running the local Dairy Queen could make better decisions than some big league clubs.  A Sour Worm Blizzard is brilliant compared to this.

Hanley Ramirez – Sat out for a normal day of rest.  What’s Hanley doing this year?  8/8?  Who are you, Shin-Soo Choo?  The Marlins have been threatening to put the brakes on Hanley for a few years now.  I think they finally manned up and told him to chillax.  Last year he only stole 12 bases in the 2nd half.  Now with his groin flare-up (no, not in that way) and the Marlins realizing he’s their bread and butter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 25/25 year.  Still a great year for a shortstop, just not what you might’ve thought you were getting.

Chien-Ming Wang – Will stay in the rotation for one more turn.  Just because Hankenstein’s sticking with him, doesn’t mean you need to.

Zach Greinke – 7 1/3 IP, 3 ER. Okay, I get the whole great-season-let’s-countdown-to-his-Cy-Young thing.  But is “Greinke Suffers a No-Decision” really a headline?  Suffering from indecision maybe.

Willy Taveras – He relies on his legs and they’re hurting him.  Right now, he’s AGNOF!  The S is really critical.

Chad Qualls – Got the save.  I need saves in the league I own him in and I hate seeing him come into the game, not a great place to be.

Max Scherzer – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks, only 4 baserunners vs. the Giants.  I like Scherzer, so don’t read too much into this, but Schierholtz and Juan Uribe were the two and three hole hitters.  Hitting sixth, Kevin Frandsen with an .071 average on the year. Protecting him was Eli Whiteside.  Didn’t he win the Nobel for his book, Night? A Giants split squad game would be a 0-0 tie called on account of darkness.

Derrek Lee – HR yesterday.  .367 in June after hitting .313 in May.  The steals look like they’ll never come back, so he might be Lyle Overbay in disguise.

Ian Stewart – 12th homer, or one less than Ryan Braun.  In Yahoo, Stewart has 2nd and 3rd base eligibility.  Cust kayin’.

Nomar Garciaparra – Had an MRI done on his calf.  Who insures this guy?

Luke Scott – Hit his 14th homer yesterday.  All he does is hit home runs!  No, really, that’s all he does.

Gavin Floyd – 8 IP, 1 ER. He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You can hardly wait.

Edwin Jackson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners.  Whoa, don’t you dare go back to being mediocre.  Armando Galarraga’s filling that role.

Clete Thomas – Went from batting 3rd to being optioned to the minors.  Ah, yes, perfect sense.  Don Kelly will be recalled.  I’m assuming he’ll slot right into the three hole next.

John Maine – Headed to the DL with a sore shoulder.  Hey, a couple of days ago he had a dead arm.  Sore is progress.

David Wright – 3-for-4 and stole his 17th base as he tries to challenge Alex Rios’s 2008 season as the most perplexing in recent memory.

Joe Beimel – Got the save yesterday as Acta pulled the old banana-in-the-tailpipe on MacDougal owners.  MacDougal is supposedly still the closer, he had just worked too many days in the row.  The Nats might be the only team where their announced closer is the only one that doesn’t get saves.

Ricky Romero – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  I liked him for a while in April, then he went to the DL and I got bored.  Now he’s back (from outer space), he’s an ‘okay’ flier in deeper mixed leagues, but he’s been getting lucky with men left on base.  I’d be careful.

Kevin Millwood – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  Would you believe he has a 2.72 ERA on the year?  That’s not rhetorical.  Seriously, I had no idea.  I own him on an AL-Only team and I didn’t even know that.  Maybe he’s having one of those renaissance years.  But then he’d be walking around saying, “Good morrow, Kinsler!” and “Davis, fetch me some mead!”

Ross Gload – 2 HRs.  Army with harmony…Dave, drop a Gload on him!  What?  Nothing?  Oh, well.  I got the reference.

Todd Wellemeyer – 6 IP, 5 ER. Gload’s on you, Jack!  What?  Still nothing?  Hmm…

Ryan Franklin – 14th save, 1.14 ERA on the year.  Next year, he’s going to be so overvalued.  People are gonna be like, “Franklin had a sub-2 ERA.  He’s the bee’s elbows, knees and toes!”

Javier Vazquez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks.  Then Rafael Soriano threw Javy’s one bad inning for him giving up 2 runs.

Raul Ibanez – HR yesterday.  After the home run, he declared a fatwa on the whole Midwest.

Wieters Washes Up On Chesapeake From Hype-o-Cane

May 27, 2009 By: Grey / Rudy Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 279 Comments →

Matt Wieters was finally called up by the Orioles.  We know what you’re all thinking – how could they give up on Gregg Zaun so quickly?  Don’t the Orioles brass have the intestinal fortitude to withstand the hype surrounding this ‘phenom’ when they’ve got the ultimate journeyman?  Evidently not.  So how has Wieters been spending his near two months in AAA detention?  He’s been awesome…ly average.  .285 average.  5 HRs.  30 Ks in 137 ABs.  There’s little doubt that Wieters will be an excellent hitter for years to come (see his .350+ average b/w A and AA last year) but those AAA numbers are more likely what you’ll get from him in 2009.  Think .285 with 12 HRs.  He could prove us wrong and you can do worse than bet on hitting upside at Catcher.  Just don’t overpay for it.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jason Bartlett – Another day, another injury to a Rays middle infielder.  Yesterday, it was Iwamura.  Now Bartlett goes on the DL with a sprained ankle that he hurt while practicing his dismount from the statistical stratosphere (.373 AVG!).  Reid Brignac, who has been hyped for a while, will replace him.

Jose Reyes - Has there ever been a top 5 pick whose owners were relieved when they went on the DL?  Enter Reyes.  What’s the use of Reyes if he has a bum leg (strained calf)?  Let him get healthy so he can steal some damn bases.

Fernando Martinez – Was called up yesterday.  Fernando Martinez is going to be a great one and he should be pursued in keeper leagues.  But let’s turn over the post to frequent commenter, Mr. Baseball, for a second.  He listed these names:  Travis Snider, Cameron Maybin, Dexter Fowler, Matt LaPorta, Elvis Andrus and Matt Gamel.  His point is fairly obvious.  Rookie nookie starts out like a frollicking gazelle and ends like a dead gazelle.  Martinez will hit one homer, slap some fans’ hands, and get sent down when the Church of Concussed Heads returns.  He’s a decent flier, because you never know what he may do for a week or two, but don’t drop anyone too worthwhile.

David Wright – Has three homers, but stole his 11th base yesterday.  Sympathy gains for Reyes?

Carlos Quentin – Now saying he’ll hopefully be back next Monday.  Awesome!  Maybe next week he can get in one at-bat and then miss another two weeks.  Could someone conference call Quentin with Chipper to explain the merits of the DL?

Max Scherzer – 7 IP.  Second straight 10 K game.  Just as encouraging, he’s thrown only 2 BBs in those games.  Owners enjoy the ride and keep your fingers crossed he stays healthy.

Melky Cabrera – Left the game with a sore shoulder after crashing into the outfield wall.  In a home game, Melky’s jersey would’ve caught the jetstream and he’d be somewhere in the South Bronx right now.

Coco Crisp – Left game with a sore shoulder too.  First you have Melky, now you have cereal.  Melky… Cereal, baby.  Melky… Cereal, baby.  What, you don’t listen to LL?

Brett Gardner – In place of Melky, 3 steals.  He ain’t taking no jive from no Western Union messenger!

Ryan Braun – Took a pitch from Adam Wainwright off his wrist.  Looks like he’ll be day-to-day.  Wainwright laughs manically and says, “You can call me, Painwrist.”  The Brewers tried to retaliate on Albert Pujols and he lined a double with his bicep.

Hanley Ramirez – Came out of the game with a tweaked groin.  Hanley was feeling a little less *pinkie to mouth* manly.

David Ortiz – Dropped to 6th in the order.  Solace for Ortiz owners who have seen the chances of an 0-for-5 decrease slightly.

Joey Votto - Welcome to our brand new game… Is he hitting a home run or is he dizzy?

Roy Oswalt – 6 IP, 4 ER and only has three decisions on the year to bring his record to 1-2.  Member those days when he’d win 20 games every year with crazy Win Karma?  Yeah, someone else might too, trade him to that person.

Edwin Jackson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  I told you to pick him up after his first start of the year.  Cust kayin’.

Mark DeRosa – HR yesterday, 8 on the year.  .260/22 HRs.  What are DeRosa’s final numbers, Alex?

Zach Greinke – 9 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  We get it.  We’ve changed Greinke’d to Pwnson’d in the glossary.

Joe Blanton – 11 Ks?  Let me guess, the Marlins?

Livan Hernandez – Complete game win?  Let me guess, the Nationals?

Brad Lidge – Got his 9th save in a sticky situation.  Lidge is going to be given every opportunity to succeed, which means he may fail.  But he’ll have the chances.

Shane Victorino – 4-for-5, he’s actually been a bit light on the steals this year, but who doesn’t love The Flying Hawaiian?  Not me, friend.

Nolan Reimold – Now has 3 HRs in 46 ABs.  Could be this month’s Travis Snider.

Gary Sheffield – Hit his 5th homer.  I think he’s way too stubborn to play and not play well, but I also think he’s too old and broken down to stay healthy.  Doesn’t hurt to take a flier, just don’t drop anyone too valuable.

Jayson Nix – 2 HRs yesterday.  Whatever, can’t supplant Alexei now, sucka!

Nomar Garciaparra – Out again with a strained something-or-other.  Someone picked him up in one of my ‘pert leagues and I swear to you, I laughed out loud.

Jesus Guzman – Optioned back to beautiful, bustling Fresno.  This came just days after Bochy said he’d start over some schmohawk.  Ah, fantasy baseball… When your loved ones don’t stress you out enough.

Ian Snell – Threw a complete game!  Then again, it was rained out after 5 innings and he gave up 5 runs.

Troy Glaus – May not return this year.  No kidding?

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Usually no Ks, no WHIP, no thank you.

Mark Reynolds – Hit his 13th homer.  Where ya at, Chris Davis?  At 12, after yesterday’s 2 homer game.  And at 61 and 67 Ks, respectively.  This race is way too close to call.

Chad Qualls – Sat in favor of Juan Gutierrez in a clear save situation after giving up runs in 3 of his last 4 outings.  We’re not reading into it, but in a way we are.  Read into that!

Andrew Bailey – Got the save about three weeks (estimate) after he was called the closer.   I’d own him, but it would sure be nice to see him again before the summer solstice. (No idea when this is, but it makes me sound smart when I say it.  Though not as smart when I point out I don’t know when it is.)

Bobby Jenks – Out with the flu as Linebrink got the save.  Can’t Matt Thornton blow his snot rockets at Bartolo Colon?

Bobby Abreu – Hit his 1st HR of the year.  Guess he shouldn’t have participated in that Winter League Home Run Derby.

Josh Hamilton Succumbs to Jones

April 29, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 284 Comments →

Hmm… Let’s see, where does the news that Josh Hamilton is headed to the DL go on the Hype Cycle?  Oh, wait!  I know!  “Falls Back to Earth, Hits the DL.” Call me, Greyvoyant!  Hamilton may be headed to the DL this Thursday if he’s still in pain.  This is obviously bad news for Hamilton owners.  As we learned from Dylan McKay’s battle with drugs on 90210, addicts can’t take pain killers.  So Hamilton is in “extreme pain” and needs to let it subside on its own.  I don’t think he’ll be out much longer than two weeks, but I’m no doctor (I am psychic though).  If Hamilton’s rib becomes a nagging type injury that bothers him for a few months, this could turn into a Def-Con 4 situation and his owners may have to jump into an Andromeda Strain decontamination shower.  For those out there with alligator blood, this may be your only opportunity to Buy Low on Hamilton.  Just remember his owners were crying in their soup last night, don’t blow on it for them.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edwin Encarnacion – Looks like his chip on his shoulder has moved to his wrist as he heads to the DL.  I liked Edwin going into the year, and was bummed to see him do nada, nada, not a damn thing this season.  At least the wrist injury explains what was going on with him.

Adam Rosales – NL-Only owners could take a flier on the Reds call-up, Rosales.  There’s no indication Baker will play him at all.  If he does, he has some pop.  He was batting .431 with 4 HRs through 17 games at Triple-A.  Not really mixed league material yet, unless your league is very deep.

Joel Hanrahan – Removed from the closer role.  Actually, he kinda removed himself.  As I said yesterday, Julian Taveras seems like the best option to me.  Kip Wells is said to be in the mix.  That mix is in the toilet bowl.  Joe Beimel is rumored to get a shot when he comes off the DL.  Might be, but if Taveras can hold the job, then Beimel will never see the chance.  Hmm… Now that I write that I must say it’s anyone’s job.  I would not carry more than one Nats reliever.  If you have an open DL spot, no harm no foul with Beimel.  I took a chance on Taveras in all of my leagues.  If it’s not him, I’m not losing sleep over it.  Just watch what you say about Taveras, he will karate kick you in the sternum.

Scott Richmond – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Not sure how long Richmond’s mastery continues because his stuff isn’t really that great, but I’ll admit it.  I started him last night in a mixed league.  Hey, lightning, you wanna get in a bottle for me?

Hideki Matsui – How many pop-ups can a lefty hit to the 2nd baseman?

Edwin Jackson – 6 IP, 0 ER. Hey, whaddya know?  He’s still looking good almost a month later.  I went over why I liked Edwin Jackson during the first week of the season.  If you weren’t here, go back and read it again.  If you were here, continue on, I start to pick up speed soon.

Phil Hughes – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  I told everyone to start him because we were going at this like ripping off a Band-Aid.  This was either gonna be the last time he was on anyone’s team, or he was going to be great.  Glad he climbed the latter.  His hook was complementing the speedball very nicely.  Like a well-trained gimp, his leash got longer.

Jose Valverde – To the DL.  Told you yesterday it seemed to be headed this way.  LaTroy Hawkins gets a few weeks to shake his Cuddle Boy label.

Cole Hamels – Left the game after 4 1/3 scoreless innings with an ankle injury.  Can’t a brother get a Win?  Hamels really seems cursed this year.

Jo-Jo Reyes – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I don’t mind Jo-Jo in deep mixed and NL-Only leagues.  Though in most leagues, he’s No-No.

Kyle Lohse – 7 IP, 0 ER.  Has an ERA of 1.97 on the season.  You don’t want to be there when it starts to climb up to 4.

Dave Bush - 5 IP, 4 ER. Almost threw a no-hitter last time out.  So it’s a no-brainer to start him against the Pirates, who batted Brandon Moss as their number three hitter, right?  Moss of a .220 average.  Nope, Bush took a no-brainer and made you look stupid.  (BTW, I always need spellcheck for “brain” and “genius.”  I’m a moron.)

Jorge Cantu – Took deep Livan and Sean Green (not the Jewish one) in yesterday’s game.  Cantu’s now batting .357 on the season with 5 homers.  Mmm… Me love some cheap power.

Chase Utley – Chase ordered up two homers yesterday and three strippers.

Nick Swisher – HR yesterday.  Swisher has 5 HRs and is batting .300.  At some point the bottom will fall out of the average, but he’s good for 30 home runs.  You can put it on the boardddddd…  Oh, wait, he’s no longer on the White Sox.

John Danks – 4 IP, 5 ER.  Sure, Mike Sweeney’s batting third and A-drain Beltre is at cleanup with a .169 average.  Of course, you get hit hard in this game!  Makes perfect sense!  Danks!

Mike Fontenot – HRs in back-to-back games as he played 3rd for Aramis.  He’s still batting .238 and he seems destined to be a three to four games a week guy.

Felix Hernandez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 9 Ks.  I almost predicted him for AL Cy Young.  That’s how much I believe.  If he can stay healthy and get some Win Karma, he could do it.  Next start, F-Her ‘n the A’s. (<–provocative!)

Chone Figgins – 2-for-3.  I give Figgins a hard time and he’s still batting .246, but he stole two bases last night to give him 9 on the season.  That’s a healthy pace.  Then again, Fowler has 9 steals and he’s batting .310.  Cust kayin’.

Mark Ellis – Calf injury, headed to the DL.

Nomar Garciaparra – Sympathy pains, to the DL.

Ian Stewart – Lookie here, Miss Moneypenny, Ee-yon Shtew-art just played his 6th game at 2nd base and, with the Polish kid benched, 2nd base eligibility could happen verrrrry quickly.

Chad Gaudin – 5 IP, 0 ER.  I’m picking him up in all kinds of deep leagues.  Hey, he’s in Petco?  Why not?

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1ER, 1.69 ERA on the season.  Begged people to draft him this season, but, let’s be fo’ realz, even I didn’t think he’d start out the year this well.  He’s not necessarily a sell because I don’t think people are buying, but he’s not going to finish the year under a 3 ERA, so he will take some lumps at some point.  Hopefully, they’re not for a while.  I’m still on the Wandwagon, just tempering expectations.  (BTW, wouldn’t Tempura Expectations be a great Japanese restaurant name?  What?  You like yakitori?)

Brad Penny – 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  And Penny’s usually a pre-All-Star Break pitcher.  Hmm… Looks like someone’s missing Alyssa Milano’s nooners.

Ben Zobrist – HR yesterday off the bench.  As Zobrist goes, so go the mohels.

Matt LaPorta – Ripping up Triple-A and could replace Ben Francisco, then Francisco goes and hits a HR yesterday.  LaPorta will be up soon, but soon’s relative.  Ask Stephen Hawking.

Francisco Liriano – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  He bounced back from that last mugging like Bernie Goetz.

D-Backs To Make Playoffs or Strike Out Trying

August 11, 2008 By: Grey / Rudy Category: August's Daily Notes 51 Comments →

Already sporting 2 of the top 3 NL windmills in Krispie Young and Mark Reynolds, the D-Backs traded for #5 Adam Dunn.  Dunn will give you HR.  Dunn will give you OBP.  Everything else is ugly and it looks like the Reds just couldn’t take looking at it anymore. It’s as if he’s Moneyball on the rocks and everyone prefers to add some tonic or juice. This doesn’t do much for Dunn’s value.  He still has home games in a hitter’s park and it’s not like his HRs wouldn’t clear the walls in San Diego and SF. This move adds some offensive punch to the D-Backs lineup, but remember Dunn was never a huge RBI guy. Speaking of huge, there’s a hole in the Reds team now that Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, (or Jim Thome) could walk through. Hairston should benefit from the lineup spot vacancy and Patterson should get most starts in the outfield. But who will the Reds now judge burly against? Their lardstick has left the building. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Evan Longoria – Fractured wrist sends Longoria to the DL. Word around Wisteria Lane is the injury happened from bitch-slapping Nicolette Sheridan. It’s tough being the youngest and prettiest on the block… For the Rays, this is a tough 1-2 after losing Carl Crawford. It’s as if the world realizes something is amiss with the Rays winning and wants to put things back in order. Bad news for Longoria owners. There’s a chance the Rays rush him back for the pennant race, but there’s also a good chance he may not return this year in time to help anyone or he may return and not be the same hitter in the final month. Wrist injuries are often doom for hitters’ short-term production.

CJ Wilson – Done for the season. Guardado will remain the closer until he begins to look more like the real Guardado then Frank Francisco will take over. ETA for real Guardado? 3 days to one month.

Justin Verlander – 4.1 IP, 6 ER. Reports are saying he has a dead arm. That doesn’t mean he’s walking around like a zombie with his arm sticking out. It means Leyland had him throw 130 pitches last week then had him throw 4 days later. Luckily, a dead arm is not as bad as an injured arm. But it’s the first step.

Aaron Heilman – 3 ER, blowing the save. If Heilman’s got Jerry Manuel pulling out his hair, he might want to call Guiseppe Franco. When the best righty closer in your team’s 40+ year history is Armando Benitez, you’ve got to expect the worst. If you’re Double D’d with closers, you might want to punt this whole situation.

John Grabow – Save for Pittsburgh. Might be good for 5-7 more saves the rest of the way which will require 10-12 Tums.

Glen Perkins – Kudos to those of you who had the cajones to start the now 9-3 Perkins against the Yanks as he shut them out for 8 innings.  He’s not going to give you K’s or a great WHIP but he might be worth keeping an eye on for spot starts the rest of the way.

Carlos Lee – Had surgery on his pinkie. The operating doctor said, “It had been torn apart like a jigsaw puzzle that we put together.” Okay, but was it like a snow scene puzzle where there’s like 3000 white pieces or was it a dogs playing poker puzzle?

Shaun Marcum – 6 IP, 2 ER. He looks flat-out usable. (Which is, of course, below flat-out dominating and above flat-out awful.)

Nomar Garciaparra – Returns from the DL on Tuesday. Hopefully he doesn’t hurt anyone else reinjuring himself on Wednesday.

Hideki Matsui/Joba Chamberlain – Hideki’s running the bases and Joba’s set to throw on Friday. Everything’s all right in Yankee land, except for getting shutout by the aforementioned Glen Perkins. And batting Justin Christian lead off. And being 9 games behind the Rays. And being closer to the fourth place Jays than the second place Sox. And starting Sidney Ponson every fifth day. And starting Rasner. And relying on Xavier Nady. And still paying Carl Pavano. And thinking Ivan Rodriguez would really matter in the big picture. But other than those things, all is right in Yankee land.