Fantasy Baseball Advice

St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2011 (24) | 2010 (29) | 2009 (8) | 2008 (16) | 2007 (23) | 2006 (21) | 2005 (30) | 2004 (28)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [90-72] NL Central

AAA: [77-66] Pacific Coast League – Memphis

AA: [62-78] Texas League – Springfield

A+: [68-70] Florida State League – Palm Beach

A: [81-56] Midwest League – Quad Cities

A(ss): [37-38] New York Penn League – Batavia

R:  [45-23] Appalachian League – Johnson City

The Run Down

After decimating their farm system in 2009 with trades and promotions, the Cardinals have reloaded quickly and impressively.  Due in large part to the strategic amateur scouting systems implemented by Scouting Director Jeff Luhnow and Assistant GM Mike Girsch, the Cardinals have a slew of promising arms – both starting & relief – and quite a few exciting position players in their Minor Leagues.  By now, many of us are familiar with what Lance Lynn and Eduardo Sanchez can do at the big league level, but injury kept both beneath the rookie minimum in IP, so they’re included below.  MLB-ready pitching talent is a little thin, as a few of their brightest arms (Carlos Martinez, Tyrell Jenkins) are simply too youthful.  Look for St. Louis to climb significantly in Baseball America’s 2012 Organizational Talent Rankings.  Also, look for Shelby Miller on draft day.

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas

Keith Butler (RHP); David Kopp (RHP); Tyler Lyons (LHP); Justin Wright (LHP); Matt Adams (1B); Ryan Jackson (SS); Oscar Taveras (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Daniel Descalso (2B); Allen Craig (LF); Fernando Salas (RHP)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Zack Cox | 3B:

Stephen ranks him at number 29 in his Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, and I can’t argue with much of his analysis:  “…a gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness…reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.”  After MVP performances in both the NLCS and World Series, however, it seems David Freese has third base locked down for 2012.  Freese is an enormous injury risk, though, and he plays on two bum ankles, so durability is an issue.  If he lands on the DL at any point in 2012, Cox is a must-add in all formats.

Kolten Wong | 2B:

A 2011 first-round selection out of Hawaii, Wong is gifted with both the bat and glove.  In 222 plate appearances at Quad Cities he slashed .335/.401/.510 with 22 XBH (5 HR).  The Cardinals will likely start Wong at AA in 2012, but considering St. Louis’ lack of depth in the middle infield, Wong could get a shot at 2B with the big club if he impresses in spring training.

Pitchers

Shelby Miller | RHP – SP:

By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace.  With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during 2012.  Stephen ranks Miller as the fourth best fantasy prospect for 2012.  Upon his arrival, expect immediate fantasy value in all formats.

Lance Lynn | RHP – SP/RP:

Lynn played an integral role for the Cardinals in both the NLCS and World Series.  As a starter, his stuff is average and he profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation guy – an innings eater.  The Cardinals, however, used him primarily in relief in 2011.  And as a reliever, Lynn was dominant.  He counters a mid-90s four-seam fastball with a sharp curveball in the upper 70s.  Ultimately, I see St. Louis trying to work Lynn back into a starting role.  Tough to say whether he’ll make the rotation in 2012, but his potential to gobble up innings is too valuable to be squandered in middle-relief.

Eduardo Sanchez | RHP – RP:

Sanchez has filthy stuff, no doubt.  With an upper-90s fastball and a tricky slider, Sanchez baffled many big league hitters in 2011 and earned five saves while serving as the Cardinals’ closer for a stretch.  Concerns about Sanchez are typically regarding his slight physique (5-11, 170).  It’s too soon to tell if he’s durable enough to hold up throughout a season in the Major Leagues.  But those worries are certainly valid, as Sanchez finished 2011 on the 60-day DL (shoulder).

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Matt Carpenter | 3B:

Although he already has some big league plate appearances, Carpenter, realistically, is behind Cox on the organizational depth chart at third base.  If Freese should go down to injury, Cox would likely get the call up, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals opted for Carpenter, who might be a safer option.  Slashing .302/.419/.465 at AAA in 2011, Cox reaffirmed his status as the organization’s best on-base prospect.  He has outstanding pitch recognition and an advanced grasp of the strike zone.  His power, though, is substandard for a big league third baseman.

Matt Adams | 1B:

Adams had a great year in the Texas League, posting a .300/.357/.566 line with 57 XBH in 513 plate appearances, including 32 homers.  If Pujols signs elsewhere, the Cardinals will likely plant Lance Berkman at first and go with Allen Craig in right field (or vice versa), but Adams could force his way into the 1B discussion if his home run stroke continues at AAA.

Tommy Pham | OF:

Jon Jay brings great outfield range and a decent bat to the St. Louis lineup.  He’s also brought extended stretches of crappiness.  Tommy Pham is an exciting outfield prospect that could challenge Jay for playing time in centerfield.  Much of Pham’s 2011 season was lost to injury, but when healthy, he’s performed well.  It’s a hunch, but I’m predicting a breakout year for Tommy Pham in 2012.

Pitchers

Jordan Swagerty | RHP – RP:

Swagerty features excellent off-speed stuff and impressed at three levels in 2011.  He’s a future closer and he’ll fit nicely into the St. Louis bullpen, but there are probably too many guys ahead of him for Swagerty to challenge for saves in 2012.

Actually, the title’s completely inaccurate.  I don’t rock rough or anything with Aubrey Huff.  I think he’s one of the few players in the major leagues that I’ve never owned anywhere.   Sometime you gotta give me a call and let me know what it’s like to own him, loyal Razzball reader.  Um, yeah, my number’s listed.  Under mustache.  Speaking of which, is there anything sadder than the people who call you to see if you got a Yellow Pages?  Not only am I not sure why they still make Yellow Pages, but calling to find out if I got it?  Really?  Are they calling from 1987?  Hey, go see the movie Wall Street, it’s great!  So, Aubrey Huff hit three homers and drove in 6.  In the last two games, four homers.   It’s terrific, but I still think he falls way short of last year’s numbers.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Xavier Paul – 4-for-5, 2 steals (and attempted a third).  Now for the Mystique behind X-Man. He failed to catch on with the Dodgers then they went with Jay Gibbons, Jane Goodall’s favorite player, but now he’s getting a “kinda” look in Pittsburgh.  He also likes long walks on a beach and juggling oranges.  Sorry, I pulled that from his Plenty of Fish profile. (BTW, That site name is really close to Plenty Oafish, which could describe some of the men on there.  Am I right, three lady readers, or am I right-right?)  Paul looks like he could swipe 20 bags with full-time duty (hehe, I said duty) and hit 10 home runs.  In other words, a poor man’s Angel Pagan without a full-time job.  Yay, let’s stop traffic and let the Jabbawockeez dance.  Paul’s the kind of guy that can help win NL-Only leagues, but, unless he’s playing every day, I’d hold for now in most mixed leagues.  Now if the Pirates decide to bench Tabata or Robot and Diaz then this new X-Man opens wide.

Garrett Jones – In trouble of losing serious playing time.  If it’s not the argh-forementioned Pirate, Matt Diaz got the start yesterday vs. a righty.

Carlos Beltran – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 9th home run.  In the 19 games since I told you to sell him after his 3 homer game, he has 7 runs, 1 home run and 8 RBIs.  718 is also the Mets area code.  Jayson Stark could write 2500 words on that significance and get Tim Kurkjian’s voice to crack multiple times.

Mike Pelfrey – 5 IP, 7 ER as he couldn’t keep the bats off the Pelfrey.

Lance Lynn – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks.  You didn’t have to see the game to know that 4 baserunners and 5 runs means he got unlucky.  I’m not saying he’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy, but I’m still holding out hope in NL-Only leagues.

Colby Rasmus – 2-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 5th home run.  May be a day late on this but he’s a decent buy low candidate. Still plenty of time for him to get to 20+ homers and 15 steals.

Jim Thome – Headed to the DL.  Very suspicious that his injury stint comes at the same time as the 2011 Log Rolling & Straw Chewing Championships.

Jason Kubel – Also headed to the DL.  Before the Twins game, they raised their 7th pennant flag.  Wait a second, that’s not a pennant flag.

Jordan Zimmermann – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  His Ks are way down this year — maybe Liriano is telling him to pitch to contact — but he still has a 1.14 WHIP and 3.61 ERA.  Like the quarter of Harrison Ford that is Jewish, not too shabby.

Michael Morse – 4-for-5, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and now hitting .999* in the last month.   *Only a slight exaggeration.

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Who fed this hodgepadre after midnight?

Chase Headley – Has a twelve game hitting streak but only 15 hits, 4 runs and 4 RBIs.  Snooze…BRAYNK! BRAYNK! BRAYNK! BRAYNK!  Whoa, onomatopoeia, you are annoying.

Brett Lawrie – Set to be called up today.  I already went over my Brett Lawrie fantasy.  I wrote it while getting a piggyback ride from a Tongan woman.

Felix Hernandez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks.  Now F-Her just needs to lower his ERA into the mid-2′s and me and him will be copacetic.

Carlos Peguero – Hit two home runs yesterday.  He showed good power in the minors, but he’s got K’s for days, as the kids say as said by someone who has no idea what the kids say.

Matt Joyce – 2-for-4 with a delicious slam and legs that he smothered in hot sauce.  Better eat up cause he’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell and it’s not on the right side which is to say it is on the right side.  Huh?  Yeah, you follow.

James Shields – 4 IP, 7 ER.  Sing with me to the tune of Spider Pig, “Schadenfreude, schadenfreude… Does whatever a schadenfreude does…”

Matt Holliday heads to the DL with a quadriceps injury.  C’mon, Mantle played with no knees for ten years!  Have a scotch and get in the lineup!  John Jay should see time while Holliday recoups.  Worth owning in 12 team leagues and could make a decent sub while Holliday’s out.  That’s not to say he could make a decent hoagie.  Different things.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kyle McClellan – Out for at least a couple of weeks with a hip flexor strain.  Or it’s hip to be strained, if you’re a kid of the 80′s.

Lance Lynn – Will fill in for McClellan.  Decent K-rate in the minors, a few too many walks at times and barely above average stuff.  But Dave Duncan once coached a pot of a chili to a 12-5 record, so I went out and grabbed Lynn in an NL-Only league.  He could quickly become a decent gamble in mixed leagues, but for now he only has one start guaranteed.

Allen Craig – Didn’t start yesterday, but that didn’t stop him from continuing to hit.  He went 1-for-3 with a home run while batting nearly .500 over the last week.

Hanley Ramirez – Always one to take any opportunity to not hustle, Hanley’s waiting until Friday to decide whether to go on the DL.  If I had to take a guess, I think he will go on the DL.  If you really need speed, I’d grab Bonifacio, who will be playing short in media res.

Aroldis Chapman – Won’t be activated on Friday when eligible.  Dusty said, “He’s got to get things together mentally and emotionally.”  Hey, Aroldis, stop watching Lifetime movies!

Brian Matusz – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He used to be the weak side of the Double Stuff Orioles (with Tillman), but, since his 2nd half ERA last year was 3.63 with a solid K-rate, he’s been the pitcher to own…In deep leagues.  In shallower leagues, he’ll be serviceable at times.  There’s an outside chance for a breakout, but I’d conservatively expect around a 4.00 ERA overall.

Michael Pineda – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I feel like I haven’t talked about Pineda enough.  He has more than a K per inning, a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 2.30.  Let’s see, that’s better than F-Her, Tommy Hanson and Sabathia.  Bingo bango!

Josh Willingham – Yesterday, he hit his third homer in his last six games.  The Hammer in Oakland that you can touch and doesn’t wear pants seventeen sizes too big is crazy hot right now.

Clint Barmes – 2-for-5 and he hit a home run on May 30th.  For him, that’s hot.  Also, I watched him hit yesterday and he looked locked in. Not to mention, I just dropped him in one league so he’s going to spite me.

Brent Lillibridge – 2-for-5 and his 2nd home run in the last five games to go along with a modest five game hitting streak.  Playing every day puts him in over his head like Michael J. Fox in The Secret of My Success, but while he’s hitting, what the hey?

David Ortiz – Hit his 4th home run in the last week and he’s hitting .313 on the year.  Did he get some of Bartolo Colon’s stem cells injected into him too?

Laynce Nix – Hit his 9th home run yesterday.  Yeah, instead of Josh Hamilton in the 2nd round, you could’ve drafted Laynce Nix.  Fantasy Baseball:  If You’re Not Already Prematurely Balding, It’ll Make You Pull Out Your Hair.

Dan Haren – Lower back spasms caused him to fall to his knees in pain.  He screamed, “I feel bad!” then Mark Trumbo put a cape over his shoulders.  Haren said later it felt better and he’s waiting to see how it feels on Thursday before pushing his next start.

Erick Aybar – 3-for-4 and his 14th steal.  Now batting .315 on the year.   He’s a two week hot streak away from being the best shortstop in baseball, even if that’s like being the tallest midget.

Mike Stanton – 3-for-4 with his 12th home run.  The other day someone accused me in the comments of not showing enough love to Stanton.  I found that offensive since I literally drool every time I watch him bat.  On my Trapper Keeper, it says, “I heart Pony Sticks.”  That’s what I secretly call Stanton.  We have pet names.  And I don’t show enough love for him?  Over his first 150 games in the majors, 75/33/88/.258/5.  At the age of 21, that’s a thing of beauty.  If I had to say one player that I think would make the Hall of Fame that has been in the league for only one year, it would be Stanton.  He’ll have 500 homers by the time he’s 33.  Is that enough love?

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Well, he finally started K’ing some hitters, so that’s good.  But four earned in six innings isn’t exactly dying your hair blonde and pretending to be Guy Fieri at a local diner.

Cody Ross – 4-for-5 with a steal.  Now has two homers and is 7 for his last 13.  Does he think it’s the playoffs?

Juan Miranda – 2 for his last 18.  And…scene!

Jhonny Peralta – 2-for-4, after hitting 7 homers and .354 in May.  Okay, pop quiz, hotshot.  Who is hitting for a better average?  Peralta or Miggy?  Yup.

Justin Morneau – 0-for-3.  Hey, it’s good to have you back!

Rajai Davis – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 1st home run.  Now hitting near .350 over the last week and 15 steals on the year.  For a SAGNOF’er, because of his placement in the lineup, he might set the record for ribbies.  Prince Fielder, “Someone say ribbies?!”

Ubaldo Jimenez – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  2010 called, it wants its start back.

Carlos Santana – Indians scored 13 runs and Santana went 0-for-3.  Ticker tease!  Though, it’s been more like a ticker season.  Comatose Indians Fan, “I’ve been asleep for the last two months but I see the Indians have the best record in baseball?!  Wow, I can only imagine what Carlos Santana, Sizemore and Choo are doing!”  Yeah, not what you think.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 4-for-6, 2 runs, 3 RBIs.  Okay, he is the best shortstop as of right now.  Fair enough.

Shaun Marcum – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Since I’m venting today, someone the other day mentioned how I didn’t say anything when Marcum had a bad last start.  He pitched fine, he grooved one to some rookie that no one thought could hit (Brandon Crawford) and he hit a grand slam.  He threw a bad pitch, he didn’t throw a bad game.

Nyjer Morgan – 2-for-3 in back-to-back games.  He’s really not much better than Gomez, and Gomez isn’t very good, but Morgan is at least hitting.

Vicente Padilla – From the files of, “Yeah, Well, Dur,” Mattingly says Padilla will regain the closer role on Friday when he returns from the DL.

Daniel Murphy – 2-for-4 as he stays sizzling.  At least two hits in the past four games.  He’s not glamorous, but hot schmotatos rarely are.

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks with his 8th win.  I’m still waiting for Correia to go south and smell of fermented cabbage.

Mike Leake – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  He’s a deep league add at this point since he may not stay in the rotation for long.

Jay Bruce – Hit his 17th home run.  Or one home run for every baby born in the Ohio area in the last month named Bruce.  Broose counts as well.

Felipe Paulino – 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  I do love his Ks, but…must…resist…urge…to…pick…him….up.  He’s just too inconsistent.

Billy Butler – Hit his 4th home run, a game winner.  After he crossed home, someone threw beads at him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  In other words, Dice-K’s elbow rolled craps.  I always thought it was gonna be “Dice” Clay who’d need Tommy John surgery because of his unorthodox smoking form.  Dice-K’s ulnar collateral ligament blew — it needed the money — oh!

St. Louis Cardinals 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (29) | 2009 (8) | 2008 (13) | 2007 (23) | 2006 (21) | 2005 (30) | 2004 (28)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [86 – 76] NL Central
AAA: [82 – 62] Pacific Coast League – Memphis
AA: [76 – 64] Texas League – Springfield
A+: [75 – 65] Florida State League – Palm Beach
A: [83 – 55] Midwest League – Quad-Cities
A(ss): [45 – 29] New York – Pennsylvania League – Batavia
R: [42 – 24] Appalachian League – Johnson City
R: [28 – 28] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down

Strictly speaking, the Cardinals had some good, if not great production from a few rookies this year. If there weren’t so many studly prospects producing right upon reach the majors, Jaime Garcia might’ve won the NL Rookie of the Year (it’s still a possibility). Look what I said about Jaime Garcia before the 2010 season began in the Minor League Review, “With Dave Duncan as his coach … Garcia could provide excellent value in 2010.” Not too shabby, crystal ball. David Freese wasn’t great but provided solid acceptable stats for a middle infield – too bad he plays third. There were other prospects that were called up that I predicted, I mean didn’t do as much as anyone hoped. Within the minor league system, several higher ranked prospects didn’t fare well (Daryl Jones and Tyler Hensley). However, a few pitchers provided bright spots (Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn) while they have a few MI and corner infielders that may provide future value. On a last note, I want to quote my 2009 Minor League review explaining why the Cards are so low in the rankings:

The Cardinals 2010 ranking isn’t looking pretty (#29) and here is why: Colby Rasmus graduated and they traded their number(s) 2,3,4,6,28, and 29 ranked prospects this year, not to mention releasing their number 23 ranked prospect (who was picked up off the waivers by Pittsburgh. Here is the breakdown of what happened:

• Received Matt Holliday (OAK) for (#2 3B) Brett Wallace, (#6 RHP) Clayton Mortensen, (#28 OF) Shane Peterson and $1.5 Million
• Received Mark DeRosa (CLE) for (#3 RHP)Chris Perez and a PTBNL (#4 RHP Jess Todd)
• Received Julio Lugo (BOS) for Chris Duncan and cash
• Received Khalil Green (SD) for (#29 RHP) Luke Gregerson
• Released (#23 RHP) Tyler Herron

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
AFL Rosters
Pitchers – Brian Broderick (RHP), Blake King (RHP), TBA (P), TBA (P)
Hitters – Tony Cruz (C), Pete Kozma (SS), Adron Chambers (OF), TBA (IF)

Graduating Prospects
#2 (LHP) Jaime Garcia; #5 (3B) David Freese; #7 (LF/1B) Allen Craig; #13 (LF) Jon Jay; #14 (SS) Tyler Greene; #23 (RHP) P.J. Walters

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#9 Daniel Descalso | 2B | D.o.B: 10-19-86 | Stats (AAA): .282/.350/.421 | 468 AB | 44 XBH | 9 Hr | .139 ISO | 8/4 SB/CS | 48:47 K:BB | .294 BABIP
Probably most major league ready position prospect in the Cardinals system. He has a quick, level swing that should produce gap power. For those of you looking for speed from your middle infielder, Descalos is only average. His defense is solid, with a strong arm, soft hands, and good range. Over a full season, expect a Felipe Lopez-esque season: boring, boring and by the end he has 12 home runs and 12 steals.

#26 Mark Hamilton | 1B | D.o.B: 7-29-84 | Stats (AAA): .298/.389/.585 | 258 AB | 38 XB | 18 Hr | .287 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 70:35 K:BB | .335 BABIP
With Albert Pujols in front of him on the depth chart, Hamilton could launch 75 homers in a season and would have to scrape for playing time. His power developed in the last year, but looks to be playing in the wrong league – defense (or lack thereof) would work as a DH. He has a good eye, a strong body and a swing that slings the ball to every part of the field. Defensively, 1B and DH are the only plausible options for Hamilton to play. Look for his name in a minor trade at some point. Otherwise, he’ll provide minor league depth. He needs to play a full season to show that his stats aren’t just flukes from a small sample size. Should get quite a bit of playing time in Spring Training; expect him to be back to Triple-A in the 2011 season opener.

#24 Steven Hill | C | D.o.B: 3-14-85 | Stats (AA): .280/.352/.543 | 361 AB | 50 XBH | 22 Hr | .263 ISO | 1/0 SB/CS | 90:38 K:BB | .313 BABIP
Here is what I said about him last year, “Defensively he is a liability and his future as a catcher seems to be closing … His bat is intriguing but his future is highly in doubt because of his inability to hold onto a defensive position.” Well, his defense is still pretty shoddy, but improving ever so slightly. Offensively, much of the same thing: good power. Hill did play at Triple-A this year getting in 38 plate appearance. Nothing special here but another plug and play catcher in the mold of Mike Napoli. Should start in Triple-A for the 2011 season unless…

#19 Bryan Anderson | C | D.o.B: 12-16-86 | Stats (AAA): .270/.341/.448 | 270 AB | 24 XBH | 12 Hr | .178 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 54:27 K:BB | .296 BABIP
…That’s unless Bryan Anderson can’t make the 2011 opening day MLB roster. Anderson doesn’t have great defense, with a fringe arm and awkward mechanics. His stick is expected to produce gap power with good average to combine with a solid batting eye. He’s a year younger than Steven Hill and should get an opportunity to make the opening day roster. Given a full season of playing time, don’t expect anything more than 15 to 20 home runs and a low-ish average.

Pitchers
# 6 Eduardo Sanchez | RHP | D.o.B: 2-16-89 | Stats (AA/AAA): 9.8 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 53 IP | 2.38 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 7.0 H/9 (.302 BABIP at AA, and .274 BABIP at AAA (3.28 and 3.42 FIP respectfully))
Quoted from his “Honorable Mention” blurb in 2009, “He was aided by an extremely low BABIP. Mainly a closer or late inning setup man … He has a 94 to 97 mph fastball and a good slider. Touted as the next closer (over Motte) for the Cardinals because he actually is able to control his pitches … Sanchez may help sooner rather than later. Might be a mid season call up as he needs to work on his game a little more.” Nothing more to add to that. Rinse, wash, and repeat for 2011. Just watch out for the hype in Spring Training – remember Jason Motte 2009?

#3 Lance Lynn | RHP | D.o.B: 5-12-87 | Stats (AAA): 7.7 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 164 IP | 4.77 ERA | 4.43 FIP | 1.38 WHIP | 1.2 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | .308 BABIP
Quoted from his “Honorable Mention” blurb in 2009, “Possessed with an 89 to 92 mph sinking fastball and a solid slider, curveball, and change-up. An inning eater type pitcher, Lynn looks poised for a good season in 2010. If that happens, 2011 may be when he makes his MLB debut.” Timetable prediction looks to be spot-on. Not the strikeout machine that great rookies have had in the past, but could produce like Randy Wells in 2009.

#16 Adam Reifer | RHP | D.o.B: 6-3-86 | Stats (AA): 8.7 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 54 IP | 3.00 ERA | 2.76 FIP | 1.26 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 8.8 H/9 | .337 BABIP
One of the top fastballs in the system, he has been clocked at 99 mph and consistently sits between 96 and 97 mph. He also throws a plus-slider. Has struggled with control and command in his short career. This year, his small sample size shows good strikeout rate and a solid walk rate. He did throw one inning at Triple-A this year and should start the year there. For the more part, he’s just another name to help any Mr. B’s.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Adron Chambers | OF | D.o.B: 10-8-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): .283/.379/.405 | 321 AB | 21 XBH | 6 Hr | .122 ISO | 15/5 SB/CS | 68:40 K:BB | .343 BABIP
Rocket fast, Chambers has yet to figure out how to swipe bases effectively. He did hit six triples showing off some of his speed. The batting eye looks to be fairly solid. Could be an outfielder in the mold of Juan Pierre or Scott Podsednik. Expect to see him at Triple-A to open the season.

#15 Pete Kozma | SS | D.o.B: 4-11-88 | Stats (AA): .243/.318/.384 | 503 AB | 43 XBH | 13 Hr | .141 ISO | 13/2 SB/CS | 111:56 K:BB | .285 BABIP
Here’s a prospect that is quite intriguing. Described as a steady player without much flash, Kozma was a first round pick who plays great defense (minus flashy SportsCenter highlights) with spectacular instincts, quick hands, and a strong arm. His swing has been slow to develop and continued through this year. He has a line drive swing, a good eye, and projects to have a high average with gap power. He’ll be turning 23 during the 2011 season and was playing at least a year above his age at Double-A. Watch for him to repeat Double-A, if he can’t get his swing on track, disregard this name. If he finally puts everything together, we have a potential middle infielder that could hit 15 home runs and swipe 15 bases over a season.

Pitchers
#1 Shelby Miller | RHP | D.o.B: 10-10-90 | Stats (A): 12.1 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 3.62 ERA | 2.42 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .366 BABIP
Want more information, see my Scouting the Unknown article that I wrote this past summer. Ratios are still much the same. About two and a half years away from significant major league production.

Blake King | RHP | D.o.B: 4-11-87 | Stats (AA): 11.1 K/9 | 6.4 BB/9 | 68 IP | 2.91 ERA | 3.92 FIP | 1.30 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 5.3 H/9 | .240 BABIP
Hey look, another Mr. B’s type pitcher. Great strikeout ratio buttressed by a low BABIP. Just another name to watch.

Justin Smith | RHP | D.o.B: 3-24-88 | Stats (A): 11.4 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 80 1/3 IP | 3.25 ERA | 2.59 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 8.1 H/9 | .350 BABIP
Again, really? You all might start believing that I am a Mr. B or something. Smith had a great strikeout ratio and was a bit “unlucky” in his small sample size (.350 BABIP). And again, another name to watch for.

St. Louis Cardinals 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (8) | 2008 (13) | 2007 (23) | 2006 (21) | 2005 (30) | 2004 (28)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [91 – 71] NL Central
AAA: [77 – 67] Pacific Coast League
AA: [71 – 69] Texas League
A+: [61 – 77] Florida State League
A: [61 – 78] Midwest League
A(ss): [37 – 39] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [37 – 30] Appalachian League
R: [25 – 31] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down
The Cardinals 2010 ranking isn’t looking pretty (#29) and here is why. Colby Rasmus graduated and they traded their numbers 2,3,4,6,28, and 29 ranked prospects this year, not to mention releasing their number 23 ranked prospect (who was picked up off the waivers by Pittsburgh). Here is the breakdown of what happened:

• Received Matt Holliday (OAK) for (#2 3B) Brett Wallace, (#6 RHP) Clayton Mortensen, (#28 OF) Shane Peterson and $1.5 Million
• Received Mark DeRosa (CLE) for (#3 RHP)Chris Perez and a PTBNL (#4 RHP Jess Todd)
• Received Julio Lugo (BOS) for Chris Duncan and cash
• Received Khalil Greene (SD) for (#29 RHP) Luke Gregerson
• Released (#23 RHP) Tyler Herron

Good thing they resigned Holliday otherwise that would have been one of the largest rental seasons for an entire organization since they lost DeRosa and Greene. I won’t rate the trades, but I will say they lost a gratuitous amount of talent. Grey just mentioned David Freese and what kind of value he may possess, thus I will withhold my comments. Furthermore, the fifth rotation spot is worth watching as the winner may hold more value for you playing in deeper leagues (Jaime Garcia versus Ben Jukich versus P.J. Walters versus Kyle McClellan). Personally, I like Garcia and Jukich. With Spring Training underway, hopefully we (Razzball readers) will start to see some of these players mentioned vying for a 25 man roster spot. Without any further ado, the Cardinals Minor League Review:

Arizona Fall League Players – Surprise Rafters
Pitchers – Gary Daley; Scott Gorgen; Mike Parisi; Adam Reifer
Hitters – (C) Bryan Anderson; (2B) Daniel Descalso; (OF) Tyler Henley; (OF) Daryl Jones

Graduating Prospects
#1 (OF) Colby Rasmus; #8 (RHP) Jason Motte; #14 (RHP) Mitchell Boggs

Players of Interest for 2010
Hitters
#26 Allen Craig | 1B-LF-3B | AAA | 24 | .322/.374/.547 | 472 AB | 53 XBH | 26 HR | .225 ISO | 95:37 K:BB | .358 BABIP | 44.5 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 36.6 FB%
With Pujols clogging first base for the rest of his career (Yes, I am that sure he’ll remain a Card for life.), Craig isn’t going to get many options to play first base beyond the Pacific Coast League. All the scouting reports mentioned that he’ll probably stay in left field but first base is his best defensive position. His defense is average in the outfield where his below average speed and arm strength are noticeable. However, if Holliday wasn’t resigned, Craig may have been given multiple opportunities to start in the majors this year. Offensively, Craig has the skills to hit between .280 to .300 at the major league level with 20 to 25 homers. His poor strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t necessarily tell how well he controls the zone, yet, this is the culprit for predicting a lower average at the major league level – plus the inflated stat line from the PCL and his high batting average on balls in play (.358). Ranked as the seventh best prospect in the Cards system for 2010, Craig could provide some midseason help off the bench if he continues to play well to start the season. He could also be used as trade bait as the season progresses. He’ll make his major league debut sometime in this season. Just remember, it’s his bat that is going to get him to the majors to stay.

#16 Tyler Greene | SS | AAA | 25 | .291/.369/.482 | 340 AB | 30 XBH | 15 HR | .171 ISO | 31/3 SB/CS | 86:38 K:BB | .354 BABIP | 44.4 GB%| 21.8 LD% | 33.8 FB%
An injury to his kneecap in 2007 derailed much of his confidence and speed as this was the most steals since 2006 when he was at Single-A and High-A. This was easily his best year as a pro and it happened to come while playing in the PCL. I am hesitant to claim he is going to be much more than a utility fielder (supported by the scouting reports). He is vying for that role this spring. His greatest assets is his speed and multiple positions he is able to play. His strike zone judgment is Delmon Young-like and defense is spotty at short. If given a full time gig, you’d be looking at a .260 hitter at best with 30 to 35 steals. Great for fantasy purposes as he looks like Everth Cabrera but he is four years Cabrera’s senior. With the recent signing of Felipe Lopez, look for Greene to be back at Triple-A.

Pitchers
#13 Jaime Garcia | LHP | R/A+/AAA | 23 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 37 2/3 IP | 2.87 ERA | 3.69 FIP | 1.04 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | 6 H/9 | .212 BABIP | 62.4 GB% | 6.4 LD% | 24 FB%
Following two straight seasons (2007 and 2008) of ending with elbow problems, Garcia went under the knife of Dr. Freeze in 2008 and returned for the end of the 2009. Since his 2009 season is such a small sample, here is his career line:

8.3 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 402 IP | 3.49 ERA | 3.71 FIP | 1.25 WHIP | .6 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .308 BABIP | 58.7 GB% | 14. LD% | 23.4 FB%

Note the groundball ratio (slightly over two-to-one) and the good strikeout rates. He has an 88 to 92 mph fastball with a devastating curve and a new cutter he developed while rehabbing. The favorite to win the fifth rotation sport, Garcia still has to prove he is durable enough to pitch a full season. Further, his control is inconsistent. Don’t be surprised to see the Cards place him at Triple-A for a couple of months and call him up at the end of May. Think of J.A. Happ (but a groundball pitcher instead) and Randy Wells (without the control) for his expectations for 2010. While everyone is watching Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Brain Matusz, Neftali Feliz, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman and Madison Bumgarner, keep an eye on Jaime Garcia. With Dave Duncan as his coach and the revival of Joel Pinero’s career via extreme groundball splits, Garcia could provide excellent value in 2010.

Ben Jukich | LHP | AAA | 26 | 7.8 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 123 IP | 4.10 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.34 WHIP | 1.2 HR/9 | .306 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 26.9 FB% (career 53.6 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 27.9 FB% | .6 HR/9)
Jukich had a great year, but with better defense (as noted by Bryan Smith from FanGraphs) and his great career ground ball ratios (53.6%) he’ll perform better than expected. He is rather old and his prospect status is non-existent. His fantasy prospects aren’t much different, but each year a ground ball pitcher can come up and surprise (Matt Palmer had a few good outings, Scott Feldman had a great year relying on a sinking 2-seam fastball, etc). I accidentally placed him in the Cincinnati Reds Minor League Review, however, with the Cardinals he is vying for the fifth rotation spot with Jaime Garcia and P.J. Walters. Read Garcia’s ending sentences about Dave Duncan for what Jukich could provide in 2010.

#17 P.J. Walters | RHP | AAA | 24 | 8.4 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 121 IP | 4.54 ERA | 3.58 FIP | 1.42 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 9.5 H/9 | .348 BABIP | 49 GB% | 18 LD% | 27.9 FB%
Walters is a finesse pitcher with a deceptive changeup and an 88 to 91 mph fastball. He saw 16 innings of the major league last year too. He isn’t sexy and doesn’t have the skills to overpower hitters at the major league level. His control and durability are better than Garcia’s. However, his upside is nowhere near Garcia’s. Walters had a high batting average on balls in play (.348), which inflated some of his peripherals (ERA and WHIP). With a more normal BABIP, Walter’s could provide some nice fifth starter value for the Cards. His upside is Aaron Cook. Nothing stellar, but serviceable.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Tyler Henley | RF | AA | 24 | .303/.367/.482 | 423 AB | 47 XBH | 13 HR | .179 ISO | 9/4 SB/CS | 64:40 K:BB (15.1 K% | 8.5 BB%) | .312 BABIP
Invited to spring training and ranked number 18 in the current Baseball America Handbook (non-roster invite), I am not sure why he doesn’t have extended stats at Minor League Splits but he doesn’t. Oh well. Henley projects as a fourth outfielder with good contact skills and strike zone judgment, solid but not great defense and gap power. The Cards have other high ceiling outfield prospects in their system and Henley happens to be the lowest ceiling but most predictable. If there are several injuries to the outfield to the major league club, Henley may be the one called upon to cover the open spot.

#25 Steven Hill | C-1B | AA | 24 | .282/.333/.470 | 464 AB | 47 XBH | 19 HR | .168 ISO | 106:36 K:BB | .326 BABIP | 41.9 GB% | 17.5 LD% | 40.3 FB%
Defensively, he is a liability and his future as a catcher seems to be closing. Swing for the fences only works for so long in the minors before the pitchers catch on. The reason I mention him is that his defense could improve and natural power is difficult to teach. Let’s watch how the 2010 season unfolds for him. If things go well, he could be a sleeper candidate in 2011.

Pitchers
Eduardo Sanchez | RHP | A+/AA | 20 | 9.8 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 75 IP | 2.28 ERA | 3.49 FIP | .92 WHIP | .7 HR/9 | 5.3 H/9 | .234 BABIP | 51.3 GB% | 15.9 LD% | 30.2 FB%
He was aided by an extremely low BABIP (.234) and an even lower one at High-A (.185). Mainly a closer or late inning setup man, Sanchez could provide a mid season boost to a rather uninteresting bullpen for the Cards. He has a 94 to 97 mph fastball and a good slider. Touted as the next closer (over Motte) for the Cardinals because he is actually able to control his pitches. He has the makings of a great closer or reliever with ability to blow his pitches past the batters and keep the ball on the ground (51.3 GB%). For those MR. B’s out there, Sanchez may help sooner rather than later. Might be a midseason call up as he needs to work on his game a little more.

#15 Lance Lynn | RHP | AA | 22 | 7 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 126 1/3 IP | 2.92 ERA | 3.79 FIP | 1.33 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .307 BABIP | 47.9 FB% | 16.6 LD% | 31.1 FB%
Possesses an 89 to 92 mph sinking fastball and a solid slider, curveball, and changeup. An inning eater type pitcher, Lynn looks poised for a good season in 2010. If that happens, 2011 may be when he makes his MLB debut.