Fantasy Baseball Advice

After an exhausting week of every team playing everyday, we come to only a handful. Weekly leagues take note that in week 8, 3 teams:  Detroit, Seattle and Texas only play 5 games.  The week of Memorial Day is also tough for fantasy in New Jersey, because we have to find WIFI friendly hotels at The Jersey Shore.  I’m bringing my laptop to Jenkinson’s since I have a reservation for a bar stool for one.  Baseball is approaching the time where teams that are out of it are saying, “Sorry, fans, but our good players won’t be here and you will have to watch scrubs.”  Houston, KC and Cleveland are the early names that jump out to me as being sellers long before the All-Star Break. Okay, have at the list of week 8 two start hurlers for fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez (Atl vs. Kawakami) (Phi vs. Moyer)
Storms into fantasy on his elephants.  Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in 6 starts.  Gets his fair share of K’s to offset the BBs he kills you with. Could be more than a weekly add now. First start looks like a no-brainer, second might be a headache wrapped in a 5 ER sandwich.

Felipe Paulino (@Mil vs. Wolf) (@ Cin vs. Leake)
It’s definitely a small offering when F-Paul is fantasy relevant. I’m hoping, not counting on, that he pitches like he did vs. SD in early May, but would take something in between. Going forward he’ll be in rotation since they’re going to need guys in Houston to pitch. Could be a win and 12K pitcher this week.

Kenshin Kawakami (@ Fla vs. Sanchez) (Pit vs. Maholm)
Has pitched better and deserves to be better than his 0-6 record. Doesn’t give huge depth and his peripherals are garbage. So why you ask is he in the article?  Easy… If Paulino is, Kawakami is. That and he plays Pittsburgh, which makes bad pitchers look okay after a few drinks.

Tom Gorzellanny (LAD vs. Kershaw) (StL vs. Garcia)
Has a chance to be skipped this week. Has been sneaky good to date with an ERA in the 3’s. Add to that that he has SP/RP eligibility and he is good enough for me.  Gotta hope that C-Saw throws 110 pitches by the 5th, and Garcia doesn’t have the atom ball working. Quality add this week if uninjured.

Jeremy Guthrie (Oak vs. Braden) (@Tor vs. Cecil)
Has been sneaky effective for the anemic O’s.  Era under 4, WHIP hovering at 1.08.  Seven starts of under 3 ER allowed.  Looks effective until bullpen craps the bed for him. Could have trouble against Toronto and the HR ball.

Ian Kennedy (@ Col vs. Jimenez) (@SF vs. Lincecum)
Yeah, I know he’s facing 2 of the best SPs in baseball. Just pitched great vs. the Giants, don’t think it happens again. Will be more effective vs. the Rockies. Hard to predict a win in either start, but the ERA and WHIP can help.

Brett Cecil (@ Ana vs. Saunders) ( Bal vs. Guthrie)
Someone has to be the beneficiary of all those HRs that the Blue Jays are hitting.  2 starts with that offense is worth the risk. Won’t absolutely kill you in ERA and WHIP, and will give a 3/1 K/BB rate. My low end fantasy grab of the week.

Paul Maholm (@ Cin vs. Leake) (@ Atl vs. Kawakami)
The proverbial ace of the eye-patched warriors of the Allegheny.  Gives depth for a dismal team, bullpen has been a huge surprise.  Pittsburgh should be in both of these games.  He’s your potential 4.50 ERA pitcher, no K’s and walks too many for fantasy relevance on a normal basis.  Good low end option in a shortened week.

Jamie Moyer (@Nym vs. Dickey) (@ Fla vs. Sanchez)
I think I write that he pitches twice every week. Hard luck loser vs. Cubbies last week. Staggering 30/9 K/BB walk rate to date. Has gone 6+ IP in every start. I don’t know what else to say… Stats speak for themselves at AARP, I also still love the high stirrups.

This is the conundrum of fantasy baseball that leads us to the battle for the final rotation spot.  These guys either have one of two options: drive around on a bus with the Savannah Sand Gnats, or float for awhile (swimming is an entirely different sport). These guys aren’t necessarily the sexiest group of fantasy options, but if your league is deep or shallow, streaming is streaming.  I do it a lot in limitless inning leagues.  It’s not cheating — it’s taking advantage of other owners who don’t do it.  Picking your “spot” starts is always hit or miss, best way to tell if you should stream is to read the betting line — I can’t make this stuff up.  People who stand to win/lose money know what is going on here.  So here we go:  the 5th starter battles for 2010 fantasy baseball at the midpoint of Spring Training:

Braves

Kenshin Kawakami – Pitched decent last year.  Under 4.00 ERA from the 5th spot is gold.  SP/RP eligibility is platinum.  I’m for this guy — he keeps the ball on the ground.

Kris Medlen – Maybe youth can be served in the A T L.  Minors number show he has some potential. To me, he looks like a midseason trade guy for offense.

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick – I bought some of his juice 2 years ago. I’ve seen him twice this spring already and he looked pretty decent.  Plays in a HR friendly environment — not good.

Jose Contreras – Grizzled old Cuban not named Livan. Gives them the “I have been there before” guy to have in a pinch.  Moyer is lurking around somewhere too.

Reds

Aroldis Chapman – Now we are getting to “ooh” guys.  We all know about him — he is climbing up the ADP boards.  I think he gets 5-6 starts in minors.  Awesome potential; future number 2.

Matt Maloney – The designated place holder at the onset of the season.  Has potential.  Do not sleep on him — he may be a better contributor after they trade of Bronson/Harang.

Mike Leake – Yeah, he is still in contention in my eyes.  Awesome polish.  Well beyond his years on the mound.  Ponder this for next year:  Cueto, Chapman, Bailey Volquez and Leake.  WOW.  Pretty decent, I’d say.

Brewers

Dave Bush – It’s feast or famine:  head for the mountains and choose anyone but “bush.”  Having a decent enough spring to make you go…. maybe.

Manny Parra – Potent offense may help both of these guys.  Good K numbers, bad everything else is not a fair trade off for me. Mostly NL-Only help here, but roll the dice when it gets warmer.

Cardinals

Jaime Garcia – Rook is ready. Saw him pitch live and he has the goods that you’re looking for.  The “Lou” is definitely going lefty with the 5.  Minor league numbers are good enough to buy for a dollar.

Rich Hill – I told you it’s either Mickelson or Gomez.  Duncan’s pet project this year.  Had the goods to make everyone believe 3 years ago.  Yeah… you know who you are.

Dodgers

Eric Stults – Loved him as Rocky Dennis — not so much for the Dodgers.  Thirty-year-old may be a late bloomer. Worrisome high walk rate. Pitching well in Spring Training.

James McDonald – E I E I O, minor league success at every level.  Dodgers SP is very overrated. They may need his potential at the back end of the rotation.

Yankees

Phil Hughes – Joba has fallen into the pen, IMO.  Hughes has only himself to blame if he goes to join him. Awesome potential three years ago; he was a top 5 prospect. Still only 23.  SP/RP eligibility.

Alfredo Aceves – Gaudin is helping his cause. Destined for long relief.  ‘Fredo could be a guy who sneaks in. Had a year talking to the G.O.A.T in the pen.

A’s

Gio Gonzalez – Awesome punch out numbers.  Favorite of mine for sneaky late round pick.  His peripherals make me sad.

Vin Mazzaro – A fellow “Dirty Jerzian.”  Is the opposite of Gio:  pitches to contact.  For my money, he is the extremely poor man’s version of Slowey.  Last seen with JWOWW and Snooki at Jenks.

Twins

Francisco Liriano – I’m truly tired of talking about this guy. Now they want him to be a closer… Minny is throwing in the towel already.  Not a great idea. That Pierzynski trade right now looks good for this year.

Royals

Kyle Farnsworth – Yeah him.  I got nothing.  Horrible as a reliever.  Hillman drinking the sauce for an early unemployment check.

Kyle Davies – Still have nothing.  For giggles, look up his Spring numbers. I haven’t seen that fat of a number since 7 ate 9.

Robinson Tejada – Time to take the training wheels off.  Previously admired by me.  Great K potential. Looked great in final 6 starts last year.  RP/SP eligible a plus.

Rangers

Matt Harrison – Arlington bleachers gobble up fly balls in summer — unfun for pitchers. My money says Feliz pitches out of the pen to start the year.  Decent Spring so far.

Derek Holland – Great potential. Needs to develop a third pitch.  There really is no loser here:  both will get starts as Harden and McCarthy are “fra-gee-lay” and neither are Italian.

Orioles

Davis Hernandez -  Great K numbers in the minors.  Did decent enough last year to be considered here.  Not the prospect that his competition is.

Chris Tillman -  Another sleeper guy for non-dynasty leagues that I like. Is part of the handful of Baltimore top pitching specs.  Don’t sleep on him.

The duality of man:

It’s all Peaches and Herb when you can get the best out of both worlds. Well, fantasy baseball wise that’s either “Martin Prado” good or “Jerry Hairston” awkward. For fantasy pitching, a guy doesn’t necessarily become more draftable based on dual position, but I’m here to “learn” you something about spot starting from the RP spot. I once heard that relief pitching is an art form. It looks easy, but hey, not everyone can paint. Hell, I color way outside the lines.  Here is a list of strapping young lads that can contribute from the depths of your roster by chucking the ball and having both SP/RP eligibility:

Robinson Tejada – ( 29 relief appearances/ 6 sp)
No joke — I heard his dad’s name is actually Miguel Cano. Here is a guy that intrigues me to no end. High K rate, low HR’s allowed (4 in 73 innings). KC may stretch him out to be a number 5. Beware of a high walk rate and a big jump in innings but he can contribute. Proj: 8 wins 4.05 era 125 K’s in 120 innings

Brett Myers – ( 8rp/10 sp)
Huge risk/reward with his change of battery mates…wink. Will only be 30 by year’s end, playing for a multi-yr deal, definite rotation spot. To me, he has all the opportunity sitting in front of him. Decent in-season fill or late round flyer. Proj: 10 wins 4.2 era 145 K’s

Kenshin Kawakami – ( 7 rp/ 25 sp)
Was cruising along and then Hudson went all Moscow and came back from the DL. Should enter the spring with a rotation spot. Otherwise, it’s to the pen to form the dynamic Asian dance team, Ken-N-Tak. Not a huge K potential and low ERA promise. You could do worse for a 5th starter. Proj: 10 wins 3.89 era 125 K’s

Justin Masterson – (26rp/16sp)
Former Sox spec goes to the head of the class — Too bad it’s in remedial English. Huge K potential (think a K/inning), reminds me a lot of a RH Jonathan Sanchez. Legitimate stuff — has potential to be a future number 3. Innings shouldn’t be a worry. Will have every chance to fail for a 90 loss team. End of draft sleeper. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Clayton Richard – ( 12rp/ 26sp)
He is another top spec that goes into the fire of a losing organization. Great potential to pitch for a budding rotation. Not a huge K guy and he will walk his share. Plays in an ERA friendly environment and has been getting a pretty good ride in the pre-draft hype machine. I‘d buy that for a dollar. Great match up guy for home starts. Proj: 7 wins 3.90 era 100 K’s

Aaron Laffey – ( 6rp/13sp)
Personally, I love this guy. Same b-day as me and same last name as the navy ship my grandfather was on in WWII. But anywho — to me, he is the “Clayton Richard” of the AL and has a chance to shine… but for a bad team. Not a huge peripheral help guy, walks a ton, no K’s. Could be a sneaky source of wins for Cleveland. Just needs to stop walking the ballpark. Proj: 9 wins 4.30 era 110 k’s

Derek Holland – (12rp/21sp)
Texas has a potent offense: this, we know. Here is a guy to do the opposite of Richard: start on the road. Has a great arsenal of pitches, got worn down by year’s end. ERA should drop from above 6 (or I would hope). Decent K/9 and needs to work on his third pitch. If the team is away, Holland should play. Proj: 9 wins 4.35 era 125 K’s

Brian Duensing – ( 15rp/9sp)
Great spot guy late last year. If he misses a rotation spot, he joins (in my opinion) the best bullpen in baseball. Not a huge K threat, but misses bats. A long relief candidate who can snipe a few victories. Expect great peripherals, low ERA. Proj: 9 wins 3.75 era 90 K’s

Brandon Morrow – ( 16rp/10sp)
Holy potential! I have been waiting for him for 2 years to do something. He now gets a chance in a very young rotation in Toronto, albeit in the toughest division in baseball. Health and stamina are an issue (diabetic). Has huge K and low ERA potential. A must grab for last round fodder or for “cause I told you so” bragging rights. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Francisco Liriano – (5rp/24sp)
This guy was awful a year removed from TJ surgery and I think he actually pitched with Tommy John’s arm. Another year may do him good. He will struggle with command and is spotty when runners are on base. Consistent arm angle a must. I’m avoiding him at all costs unless I can get him late — like on the waiver wire after the draft. Buyer beware but great K potential from the once most hyped SP since Tim Leary. Projections found at Grey’s Liriano Sleeper post.

Others to think about that qualify: Jamie Moyer(5rp/25sp), Bobby Parnell(60rp/8sp), Tom Gorzellany(15rp/7sp)

Julio Borbon has been running around like a chicken without its head or maybe Borbon is *pinkie to mouth* a Wild Turkey.  Yesterday, he even hit a home run.  The word out of the mean streets of Arlington was he’d sit once Cruz returned.  Cruz returned.  Borbon played.  Natch!  Will Borbon’s brilliance continue?  Unfortunately, I don’t think so.  He’s doing his best Mr. April, Emilio Bonifacio, impersonation (Flex, Bonifacio!  Yeah, you are so Mr. April!) and we saw how long that lasted.  While Borbon’s hot, own him like Angelina with 3rd world children, but in Triple-A, he had 2 homers in over 400 at-bats and a pretty terrible caught stealing percentage, so know that he’ll come crashing back to Earth like your unrealistic fear of meteors.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Drew Stubbs – 1-for-5, 3 Ks.  He’s like a white Willie Mays Hayes.  He was guessing on 0-2 counts like a pimple-faced, teenaged waiter guessing what’s in the meatloaf.  Cain’s nasty and able, but Stubbs looked overmatched on every pitch.  Keep in mind what I said yesterday, “In Triple-A, he had 104 Ks in 107 games.”  And that’s me quoting me!  But remember Willie Mays Hayes can run, so Stubbs still has value.  Just know what you’re getting.

Gary Sheffield – Sheff was seen angrily wagging his walking papers at the Mets front office.  He thinks he should get a contract; after all, he is their top home run hitter this year with 10.  Sheff owners should want him on the Mets.  Anywhere else, he’s not a cleanup hitter… He’s not even really an every day player.

Billy Wagner – Returned to action and looked dominant.  He could end somewhere that includes saving games.  Those in dire need of saves.  You know the drill.

Justin Morneau – Oh-fer-geez, Morneau heads back up Nort to have his ear checked, dontchya know?  May be headed to the DL.  Uffdah!

James Shields – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 unearned runs, 9 baserunners.  He should’ve mopped the Trop with the O’s like Carol Burnett.  The way the O’s are playing you’d think they didn’t want Bryce Harper.

Ben Zobrist – HR yesterday.  Might finally be coming out of the funk he’s been in.

Nolan Reimold – HR yesterday.  First homer of August.  Lately, he’s been almost as non-existent as his brother, Judge.

Jason Hammel – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners.  I picked him up for this game.  Ye of a sub-3 ERA away from Coors.  Then I got cold feet and didn’t start him.  Sonavabench!

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 3 ER.  Since I told you to buy him on June 24th, he has a 2.25 ERA in almost two months.  Cust kayin’.

Brett Cecil – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 Ks.  You guys had a good run… *realizing he has a 4.82 ERA*  You guys had an all right run… *realizing Cecil has a 1.58 WHIP* Wait, why do you own him?

Jon Lester – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Since I’m in that type of mood, on May 15th, I told you to get Lester.  Since then, Lester has a 2.49 ERA.  It’s hard to make this shizz up.

Marlon Byrd – 8 for his last 19 as he hit two homers yesterday to give him 14 on the year.  This Byrd you cannot cage…

Kendry Morales – Hit his 27th homer.  He’s having some kind of season.  It’s about time, too… Wait a second, he’s listed as 26 years old?  Oh, c’mon.  He’s easily a Latin 28.  Remember that when you’re considering him for keepers.

Wandy Rodriguez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Last time out, the Wandwagon’s horse had a nail in its hoof.  Well, that horse is now glue and the Wandwagon rolls again.

Kyle Blanks – Has three homers in the last four games.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  On the right side of the slash, which is the left.

J.D. Drew – 4-for-4 with 2 HRs yesterday.  After the game, a reporter asked Drew if he’s changed his approach.  He said, “No, I just love my Mom more than Stephen.”

Kenshin Kawakami - 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Guess who it was against?  Meet the Mets, meet the Mets… Step right up and beat the Mets.  Start your rookies, contact your bookies… They’re worse than your local Chinese restaurant’s almond cookies.

Much like a newly married female, the Blue Jays have dropped BJ from the active roster.  Imagine this scenario.  You walk into your fro-yo distribution job, say what’s up to your TCBY manager who’s twelve years younger than you, open up the jimmies container and proceed to flip them, one at a time, at your manager’s head.  Timothy asks you politely to stop.  You politely give him a wedgie.  Naturally, he fires you.  Then you collect your salary for the next year.  Man, the life of a terrible baseball player may be better than the life of a marginal one who has to play every day.  B.J. Ryan was released yesterday.  Now he has more time to count his money.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Wandy Rodriguez – 9 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks.  In fairness to those who don’t own him, this was an easy matchup.  For those that do own him, yee-haw!

Rafael Soriano – Now has more saves than Mike Gonzalez and more vowels than Rzepczynski.

Kevin Hart – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 walks.  Belch.

Kenshin Kawakami - 6 IP, 1 ER.  His last start he went 4 1/3 IP and 4 earned vs. the Nats.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Kawakami is not a risky start.  Whether the matchups are favorable or not.

Troy Tulowitzki – 3-for-4, with his 14th homer yesterday.  He trails only Ben Zobrist in most homers by a shortstop.  He also trails Zobrist in awesomeness, but ya’ll knew that.

Manny Parra – Returning to start Thursday vs. the Cards.  He’ll need three decent starts before I even consider him.  Burn me once, shame on you.  Burn me twice, stop freakin’ burning me, pyro!

Chad Gaudin – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks, 7 baserunners.  Over IM, Rudy said this, “(Gaudin) is so hit or miss.”  I said, “Yup.”  Rudy then said, “But don’t put that in the roundup.”  I said, “No problem.”

Max Scherzer – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I watched most of this game to see one thing, how does Scherzer throw so many pitches and not get out of the 7th inning? (That’s a complete lie.  I watch every Diamondback game I can because of Mini Donkey.) Seems like Scherzer just gets himself into lots of deep counts.  Kershaw and him really are the same pitcher.

Felipe Lopez – Hit his fifth homer yesterday.  Man, he got cold as dog balls for a long time.  Hitting one homer for all of May and June combined.  At least steal some bases.  You’re making me look bad!  Hopefully, he can get hot for a few weeks and get into double digits for homers and steals.

Chris Volstad – Threw a five-hit shutout as he K’d 6.  Guess who he was facing.  Go ahead.  I’ll wait.  *taps finger*  The Giants!   C’mon, that was a gimme.

Dan Uggla – Hit his 16th homer yesterday, batting .223.  Yeah, that’s not great.  Need to raise that to .250 or hit about 5 more homers for that not to matter.

Oliver Perez – 5 IP, 2 ER.  Wow, he had a solid game? 7 walks.  Oh.

Joe Mauer – HR yesterday.  He’s had four HRs since his insane 11 homer May.  Maybe he had a BJ Upton playoff cortisone shot in May when he hit those 11 HRs.  Not sure, but since then he’s returned to his high average, below average power ways.

David Aardsma – 3 ER, 5 baserunners, no outs.  Aardsma’s showing why you can’t spell his last name without a Double A.

Roy Halladay – May approve a trade. Big news was the Yankees wouldn’t go after him.  What about the Pirates?  Will the Pirates go after him?  Why isn’t that news?

Zach Greinke – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Since June his ERA’s over 4 and his WHIP is above 1.30.  Correia has been better.  Snap!

Shane Victorino – 2-for-4, 2 steals.  Just the other day I was asking for him to steal more.  You’re welcome.

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks. Since his recall, 3.44/1.20 with 13 Ks.  Money?  Not really, but we are in a recession.  It’s decent.

Scott Kazmir – 6 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Doode is killing me.  I mean, I have Gaudin and Wandy throw solid games then this guy comes along and throws this shizz.  I’m close to punting him.  Sometimes it’s just better to let someone else pick up the poison pill.

Ben Zobrist – HR yesterday and 4 RBIs… The Zo!

Scott Downs – Returned and gave up the game-winning single, but the earned run was charged to Frasor.  Yeah, way to make the other guy look bad.  I know that trick.  Have I mentioned Rudy wanted to draft Kazmir?  Rudy, “Yeah, Fred Lewis has been terrific.”

J.D. Drew – HR yesterday while leading off as Ellsbury hit 6th.  What’s this, an OBP move?  This is ridiculous.  Can someone text Francona that he needs to switch these two?

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER vs. the Mets in Metco.  This is one of the problems with Kuroda.  Last year, he led the league in FLAKE, which is basically the deviation from start to start a pitcher has.  It’s a real term.  Well, I mean, as real as a term can be that is made up by a baseball geek in his Mom’s basement.  Leave my socks there, it’s just dried glue!

Jose Contreras - 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. Since he came back from the minors, he’s pitching like he’s actually 37-years-old as his ESPN player card says.  37… Ha!

Ervin Santana – 4 IP, 5 ER.  Yeah, things aren’t getting better.  Let him have a shred of dignity and shut him down.

Taylor Teagarden – Hit his first homer of the year.  Wow, member when you were thinking about drafting this guy?

Andruw Jones – 5 Hrs in the last four games as he batted cleanup.  You don’t have to like the hot guy to pick up the hot guy.  (<–Quote from He’s Just Not That Into You, but it applies here.)

Donald Veal – Returned from the DL.  Surprisingly, he didn’t have a calf problem.