Fantasy Baseball Advice

Remember the blonde chick from the The Real World:  Hawaii, who, like, totally fell for Colin?  She was the cute girl with the young grandmother body.  You know who I’m talking about?  Cool.  Yeah, she’s not Kendry Morales.  Kendry Morales is the doode that the Angels are putting in as their starting 1st baseman.  Joly Hesus!  A prospect that is going to be playing 1st for an AL team that scores runs like an NL team!  How did you miss that, right?  Pretty easily.  He’s sizz-ucked in his limited time in the majors.  In 127 games in the Majors, he’s sitting on a career line of 12/45/.249 with no speed.  If you were a Benihana chef, you’d cut the tail of those numbers and flip ‘em into your hat.  So what is it that I like about Kendry Morales that makes him a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

Opportunity knocks, Dana Carvey!  This spring Kendry Morales is going to get a chance to prove his minor league numbers are no fluke.  In the last 6 years, Morales has hit .337 with a .393 OBP through Cuban leagues and the minors.  In Triple-A, he has 317 ABs and hit .341 with 15 HRs and a .377 OBP.  At some point, Morales’s eye should translate to the major league level, or at least one would hope.  Unfortunately, he won’t have 1st base eligibility until he plays some games at 1st in April, but he should get the eligibility soon enough.  He’s not going to explode for power suddenly.  20 home runs seems to be about his ceiling.  So I guess he’s boring the big boy pants off of you.  The only difference between Conor Jackson and Kendry Morales could be 7 steals.   For a guy that is going undrafted in lots of leagues, Kendry Morales is a solid AL-Only fantasy sleeper and an endgame target in mixed leagues if you need average and some power.

Back in September, I said, “There’s so much to love about Fred Lewis. Let’s see… Power — check!  Speed — check!  A name that sounds like an 80′s sitcom character — check!  I’ll take Fred Lewis in the center square for the win.  Alas, Fred Lewis is about to undergo season-ending surgery on a foot bunion.  (The operating podiatrist hopes his patented Toe, Hairy and Curly procedure will one day be as recognized as Tommy John surgery.)  I still like Lewis for next year, but this is this year, fool!” And that’s me quoting me!  Let’s see why I still like Fred Lewis as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Similarly to a wah-wah storyline from a bad sitcom, Fred Lewis was bothered by bunions for most of last year.  It’s impossible to know how many bases Fred Lewis would’ve stole if not for the bunions, but I’m gonna guess more than the 21 he did steal.  He also missed quite a few games with this chronic foot-to-path disease.  It’s hard to say how many home runs he would’ve hit if he didn’t miss all of those games, but, like a foot, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say more than the 9 he did hit.  Now that your expectations are soaring, I’m gonna knock them down a bit.  With extra at-bats and less luck, Lewis probably won’t hit the .282 he hit last year.   Cuz, see, his BABIP was a bit too high, even for a chop and run hitter.  Also, he’s already 28 years old, last year (with extra games) is about as much as we can expect from him.  I’d put Lewis’s 2009 fantasy projections at about 95/12/50/.270/25.  Those are a bit optimistic, but they’re not fall off from some outfielders going much higher in 2009 drafts.  Fred Lewis should be good, as long as he’s got these bunions beat — “Get your feet checked.  You big dummy!”

Ryan Zimmerman went into last year with a bum wrist, which was enough for me to be down on him — Beavis, “Hehe, Grey was down on him.” — I didn’t want any part of Zimmerman.  Then when he came down with an injured shoulderitis or some shizz, I backed away slowly from him like when your friend tells you he got herpes from his cousin.  It all smelled bad like a skunk in a microwave.  There was no way I was drafting Ryan Zimmerman last year.  And my concerns were confirmed, as Zimmerman put up some yawnstipating numbers, 51/14/51/.283/1.  Those numbers look similar to the numbers Ryan Howard can put up in one month.  So why am I touting Ryan Zimmerman as a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

In September of last year, Ryan Zimmerman went 14/5/13/.290 in 93 ABs.  5 home runs in that final month shows me the surgery he had on his shoulder last summer took, and there’s no reason to have any worries about lingering problems.  Oh, bee-tee-dubya, he’s still only 24 years old.  He won’t make huge strides in his power numbers for 2009.  He’s not going to explode for 40 HRs.  He’s not that type of hitter.  But 100/20/100/.290/7 is not a completely unrealistic floor for Zimmerman.  That’s right, floor.  He can go above those numbers.  Since he’s going late in drafts, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t grab him as your 3rd baseman if you punted that earlier.  Or grab him as your corner man.  Ryan Zimmerman is not going to save your team, but he’s a decent fantasy sleeper.

In 2009, penciled in behind Josh Hamilton in the cleanup spot for the Rangers is Nelson Cruz.  He has 30 homer pop and could steal ten bases with Ron Kovic pinch running.  Where’s the lose?  Why is he a fantasy sleeper and not simply being drafted like the Minotaur he is?  Wait a second, Grey, are you going to burst my freakin’ bubble on Nelson Cruz? Sorry, random italicized voice, I’m just injecting a bit of realism into your 2009 fantasy drafts.  Anyway, why is Nelson Cruz a 2009 fantasy sleeper?

Check Cruz’s 2006 minor league numbers: .302/.373/.528 with 20 HRs.  Jump on Oprah’s couch, Cruz.  Those numbers are incredible. And more of the same in 2007, but still in the minors — .352/.426/.698 with 15 HRs in only 44 games.  Why didn’t the Rangers bring him up? They did.  Oh, man, he was injured, huh? Nope.  If a beach ball fell onto the field, he couldn’t knock it back into the stands.  Rumors say the Rangers were considering using his whiffs to cool the luxury boxes.  Cruz is The Miz and the minors is the Intercontinental Championship.   In 2008, he hit well again in the minors, .342/.426/.695, but then, on his call-up, it finally came together in the majors.  In 115 ABs, Cruz went .330/.421/.609 with 7 HRs.

But now he’s twenty-eight years-old.  Way to get your act together for the decline of your career.  So this last one hundred plus at-bats is probably fluky, right?  His BABIP was at a .388 clip.  So he has a better chance of striking out 150 times next year than hitting .330.  Still, he walked seventeen times last year in those 115 ABs.  In his 2007 stint in the Majors, he walked twenty-one times in 307 ABs.  Cruz has definitely turned a bit of a corner, but a 28-year-old corner’s expectations should be kept in check.  Could he be 2009′s Ryan Ludwick?  Yup.  Could he start off in a bad slump and fall back into bad patterns?  Yup.  Nelson Cruz is a 2009 sleeper, but he could easily end up needing to be put to sleep.  If everything breaks right, his 2009 projections could be 75/25/90/.270/10.

That’s a Fantasy Baseball Look at the signings or trades of Randy Wolf, Bobby Abreu, Aaron Heilman, Rich Hill, Andruw Jones and Ty Wiggington.  And, yes, I couldn’t resist the palindrome.  I’m real late to the discussion on some of these.  Not because I didn’t hear about them, but I just didn’t feel like they warranted immediate attention.  So here’s a fantasy baseball breakdown for these offseason signings and trades:

Ty Wiggington – Last year at 2nd base he was nice to have.  At 3rd base this year, he’s okay.  I’d slot him in between 21 and 25 on the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’d prefer to take a flier on someone like Gordon or Sandoval though if you’re that deep into the position.  This acquisition hurts Luke Scott’s value, but Luke Scott hurts Luke Scott’s value anyway.

Aaron Heilman -  So what do Dempster, Looper, Wainwright, Dennis Eckersley if you experience time in reverse, Lowe and Duchscherer have in common?  Guys that started as relievers and then found success as starters.  Check one for Heilman.  Quite a few of those guys weren’t that good as relievers.  A big, oversized second check for Heilman.  So for 2009 fantasy we expect the same from Heilman as we got last year from Dempster or Duchscherer?  Honestly, I wouldn’t expect the same from those guys in 2009, let alone from Heilman.  Though this whole moving a reliever to starter business does seem like an easy way to find a diamond in a ruff, at least in the short term.  I think in the long term it screws pitchers up by overextending them, making them risky pitchers.  Also, I’ve pretty much convinced myself that looking at Heilman’s reliever numbers mean very little.  Maybe some day Rudy will break down how these relievers move to the rotation with such great results.  What do I think it is?  Well, thanks for asking.  I think it’s part psychological.  They want to start and if they get the opportunity then they do everything to show they’re capable.  It’s part how few innings their arm has on it going into their inaugural season starting.  It’s part magic.  The only major drawback I see to Heilman is he battled some knee problems last year.  If he has more problems with his knee in 2009, then he might end up giving up home runs and being useless.  If he’s healthy, I like Aaron Heilman as a very late round 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Yup, I said it.  Finally.  Who knew I had so much to say about Heilman?  I sure didn’t when I started this treatise.  I should’ve done my thesis at the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston on Aaron Heilman.  Would’ve been a whole lot more productive than, “I Found My Thrill on Rich Hill.”

Rich Hill – Hey, wasn’t someone just talking about him?  You were, Grey. Ah, yes, thank you random italicized voice.  Fool me once and shame on you.  Fool me twice and shame on me.  Fool me three times and I should start tattooing notes on my body.  If Hill’s in the rotation leaving Spring Training, he’s worth a look in AL-Only leagues, but I wouldn’t start him against 70% of the AL teams.  So he’s risky to say the least.

Bobby Abreu – Nothing changes for Abreu with his move to the Angels, except maybe he’s now a lock for 20 steals whereas before he was a lock for 15 plus or minus 3.  I say he’s now a lock for 20 steals because the Angels love to steal.  They also don’t love to walk so it’ll be interesting to watch Abreu’s reaction on first base when Vladdy’s batting.  As Rex Hudler says, “From his head to his toes, that’s how Vladdy goes.”  Abreu should add about three minutes onto every Angels game.  Yay, more Rally Monkey.

Randy Wolf – Good K/9 rate makes him a solid late round flier in NL-Only leagues and a $1 auction buy.  Don’t expect the world, but 150 Ks and 4.50 ERA is in his wheelhouse.

Andruw Jones – In AL-Only leagues, I could see taking the flier on Andruw if he exits March with the center field job.  I would not expect a bounceback to former glory like Bret Michaels post-Rock of Love.  Andruw’s lost too much bat speed and gained too much girth.  BTW, isn’t it ironic that absolute locks for the Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones, both played center for the Braves at the height of their career?  It’s like rain on your wedding day, which is not really ironic.