Fantasy Baseball Advice

Coming to the Braves outfield this summer, Jordan Schafer — The outfielder to have when you’re drafting more than one.  I picked him up immediately in my sucky fantasy baseball league.  He sounds blahtastic! Maybe 10/15/.250 aka every outfielder that sits on waivers all year that has one good game and you contemplate picking up until you think better of it.  Some have compared Schafer to Sizemore, but he’s much greener.  Though he does know his way around striking out.  He’s jumping straight from Double-A where he K’d 88 times in 297 ABs.  CHONE and ZiPS project averages near .240.  He may turn into a Sizemore, but for 2009 he’s more of a Sighsmore <– pun!  He’s worth a flier in an NL-Only league.  But then again, so is Cha-Seung Baek.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Dexter Fowler – Razzball was abuzz yesterday with the news Fowler might make the team.  He really should, and Helton should retire so Ian Stewart can play, but whatever.  Fowler is the total package like Lex Luger.  He can run, mash and had the opportunity to go to Harvard.  He could go 12/30 and hit .285.  Then he’s a 30/30 guy in a year or two.  Keeper leagues should be all over him.  I have Spilborghs on a few teams, but I’d happily move on from him to see Fowler get the chance.  I grabbed Fowler in my Spilborghs leagues for backup until this shakes out.  I’ll drop whoever doesn’t get the job.  Fowler or Maybin? I still want Maybin for now, because Maybin is assured time, i.e., the Marlins play their prospects.  If Helton was on the Marlins, he would already be DH for an AL team.

Joey Devine – Aching Joey Devine is having a real hard time staying healthy.  Looks like Ziegler will start the year as the A’s closer.  He could hold the job for a while depending on effectiveness and Devine’s injury-prone-itude (Made Up Word Of The Day!).

Alexei Ramirez – Was hurt sliding into home, but didn’t seem too serious from the latest news I heard.  Now ease back on the hustle, Alexei.  You’re going to give me a heart attack.  Everyone’s calling you an Alfonso Soriano clone, but there’s no need replicate his injury-prone-itude.  Please don’t turn into this year’s bust.  Please.  I’m begging you now.

James McDonald – Some of you noobs (I called you a noob! Natch!) are going to think it’s Christmas in March, but I wrote a James McDonald sleeper post already.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious, I know.

Dustin McGowan – Jays unsure of his return.  Hey, that makes two of us!

Travis Hafner – Hit first homer of spring and he’s batting .227.  Good to see he’s rounding into mid-season form.

DeWayne Wise/Chris Getz – White Sox one and two hitters?  Alexei batting 8th?  Fields 9th?  Somebody, please help him!  Ozzie Guillen’s gone crazy!

Jason Motte – LaRussa said Motte would see some save chances.  Way to clear that up!  I think Franklin still gets involved in this mess.

J.D. Drew – Will bat fifth for the Sawx.  I think people underrate Drew.  He’s not a bad 4th to 5th outfielder.

David Purcey – I’m not buying into his solid spring training numbers.  I call shenanigans.

B.J. Ryan – Gaston’s talking about using Downs for some saves, but reading between the lines tells me he might just be goading Ryan to man up.  Either way, Downs is the handcuff you want as a Ryan owner.

David Delucci – Sticking with the newly-established David theme, David Delucci goes to the DL.  Lates, Double D.  Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo just got a bump — not a Studio 54 bump.

Emilio Bonifacio – Could be leading off for Florida.  Or Maybin.  Or Hanley.  Or Amezaga when he’s healthy.  I doubt Bonifacio sticks in leadoff, but SAGNOF.  I also really hope to one day see Alfredo Amezaga and Emilio Bonifacio in an Olive Garden commercial.  Now that’s Italian!

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Blue Jays Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Drunk Jays Fans.

1) There may be no player more consistently frustrating in fantasy baseball as Vernon Wells.  He was awesome in 2003 and 2006.  Will he continue the ‘every third year’ pattern in 2009 or just be frustrating again?

If I were a betting man– and I am– I’d bet that Vernon’s 2009 will be his most outstanding year since ’06. Not that it will be difficult, but he was actually quite good when healthy last year (121 OPS+), and ’07 was really a write-off because he was playing with a cyst in his shoulder that completely threw off his swing. Plus, the Jays have been written off even earlier this year than usual, so maybe there’s reason to believe he won’t struggle under the weight of his ridiculous contract. Of course, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was brutal again, but I do expect to see Good Vernon this year.

2) Alex Rios is one of those power/speed guys that gets fantasy baseball players all tingly.  He upped his SBs last year (from 17 to 32) but fell back in HRs (from 24 to 15).  Is he just a 6’5″ Carl Crawford or can he follow in the 25/25 footsteps of illustrious Blue Jays like Raul Mondesi, Jose Cruz. Jr, and Shawn Green?

The belief seems to be that Cito Gaston and crew really helped Rios improve when they arrived last year, and the hope is that his progress will carry over into 2009. I’m leery of giving too much credit to hitting coaches, and it feels more than a little bit ridiculous to still be thinking of Rios as a developing player, but the splits are encouraging: .285/.337/.401 with 4 HR and 23 SB in the first half .299/.336/.540 with 11 HR and 9 SB in the second. I expect to see a Rios more like the latter in ’09, so getting to 25 SBs might actually be the more difficult proposition. Likely he falls just short of both– but if he do that and add in 47 doubles again, I’m not going to complain.

3) Dustin McGowan has been called the ‘next Roy Halladay’ but his 2008 was more like the ‘next Juan Guzman’.  Can he live up to the Halladay comparisons in 2009?

Having watched Halladay pitch all these years, and hearing all of the stories about his focus and his drive and his work ethic, I think it’s extraordinarily unfair to label any young pitcher the ‘next Roy Halladay’. Roy is simply not human. McGowan has outstanding pure stuff, but it’s been a long process for him, and the shoulder injury that will keep him out until May is another big setback (he had Tommy John in 2004). Unfortunately, 2009 is not going to be the year he makes Jays fans stop worrying about Halladay’s contract nearing an end, and I expect more growing pains. So I guess for now I have to say he looks more like the next Juan Guzman– but if you look only at Guzman’s six best seasons, that’s really not so bad (just please don’t look at the other four– I wish I never had to).

4) What Blue Jay will be the biggest fantasy baseball surprise in 2009?

Aaron Hill shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, because he showed what he can do in 2007, but he’s definitely a sleeper candidate in most formats– especially since his numbers before the concussion last year weren’t great. He’ll definitely be closer to his 2007 numbers. But if I really want to be a pie in the sky optimist, I’d say Scott Rolen. I’m sure plenty of fantasy players have been burned on being optimistic about a Rolen resurgence before, but the word here is that he completely reworked his swing last year, lessening the load on his bum shoulder. The sample size is small, but if you look at his numbers after he came back off the DL for good last August (.298/.350/.532 with 4 HR and 8 doubles in 27 games), it makes you at least a little bit hopeful if you’re a Jays fan. I figure he’s worth a flier– no, seriously.

5) From the perspective of an occasionally sober Yankee fan, JP Ricciardi seems like a giant douchebag (see Adam Dunn Radio Serenade, BJ Ryan’s Spinjury) who has sucked more milk from the Moneyball teet than even Billy Beane or Michael Lewis.  Can you share the Drunk Jays fan perspective on this guy?  Do you find yourself longing for Pat Gillick?

Actually, we tend to go against the grain on a lot of things, because we find that the prevailing opinion among most Jays fans is almost always retarded. Nobody is thrilled with the way that the Ricciardi era has gone, but we acknowledge that the reasons run deeper than just what Ricciardi has done. Right now, we have much bigger issues with ownership, which is a telecommunications company worth tens of billions and much safer than most companies from the economic downturn, who insist on crying poor at a time when they could dig change from their couch cushions and get some outstanding value on the free agent market. As for JP, we may be biased because he’s fun as hell to write about, but generally we’ll defend him, or at least try to find some kind of reasoning behind the decisions he makes. That is, unless it’s as flagrantly stupid as the Dunn comments. Guy does come off like a dick, but he goes on the radio every week and takes calls from fans, which he completely gets bonus points for, and the big thing, it seems, is being willing to accept that 99% of what he says is spin, and the other 1% is probably spin. It’s easy to get down on him for the lack of success, but he’s built an excellent group of pitchers, and in the last couple of years if more than just a couple of hitters could have actually managed to play to their potential, things would seem quite different.

Much like Ron Howard’s movies, Ryan Howard’s swings are hit or miss. Lately, he’s been more A Beautiful Mind than The Grinch Who Stole Christmas. If he can just get the average up, he’ll reach the pinnacle of Night Shift. However, the chances of that are the same as Chase Utley marrying a mermaid. But Philly fans are smart enough to not look at just average.  They check slugging percentages before they start chucking batteries.  Who can forget the sabermetric death threats at Mitch Williams – a BABIP of .100 couldn’t compensate for your K/BB and HR/FB ratio! What is Ryan Howard averaging more than one a game since May 1? If you guessed cheese steaks and hot dogs, you may be right. But if you guessed RBIs, you’re definitely right. As far back as mid-April, I told you he will hit 40 home runs, go out and get him no matter what his early season looks like. I told you in May, when Howard was in the midst of a terrible slump, he would go into the All-Star Break with the most home runs. Since May 1st, he’s hit 46/22/71/.258 and 68 Pork Roll sandwiches. Yum! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Vernon Wells – Hits the DL with a Grade 2 strain. Or as we called it in Grade 2, a boo-boo. He’ll be out 4-6 weeks; I’d drop him. Send your Get Well Soon cards to Toronto c/o Nobody Cares.

Richie Sexson – Was released by the Mariners. I was trying to come up with the perfect Sexson blurb, but all I kept thinking of was “Blechhhh!” So Sexson doesn’t get a blurb, he gets a burp. (BTW, I almost made him the lead, but I realized he’s been a non-story for two years. If he was the lead, his title would’ve been, “My Girl Doesn’t Like Sexson The Bumhole.”)

John Maine – He should’ve dusted the Giants like Mrs. Garrett did the Drummond household. (BTW, “Mrs.” my ass. Unless she was hitched in Hawaii to Paula Poundstone.) I can only assume the forearm cramps are bothering Maine still. Hopefully the All-Star Break gives them time to heal.

Erik Bedard – Hits the DL. But he was more or less on the DL anyway. Eff why eye, I wouldn’t be looking to grab Seattle Mariners for their 2nd half race to a 100 losses.

Moises Alou – Revealed he has a torn left hamstring. I guess peeing on his leg only made it worse. I think this might be the last we see of an Alou until his son, Shlomo, makes it to the majors in 2012.

Justin Upton – Oblique strain, but I think they’ve narrowed it down to somewhere in his abdominal.

Dustin McGowan – Tear in his rotator cuff. Punt.

Kevin Slowey – 6 ER in less than 4 IP. I said I liked him, I never said I loooooved him. For those Twins fetishists out there, I’d prefer Baker in a ball gag.

Justin Morneau – 5-for-5, someone asked in the comments if I liked him better than Atkins. I do. What else do you want me to say?! (I’ll talk more about this in Friday’s afternoon Buy/Sell. Or not! Wait and see! Or not! Actually, these “Or not”s could go on forever. Or not!)

Todd Jones – Blew a save yesterday. Guess how many that is. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *taps foot, picks nose and checks watch* Time’s up! Only his second blown save. Zumaya will see some chances soon, but I don’t know if Jones goes the way of Borowski just yet.

Aaron Harang – Placed on the 15-day DL. Strained forearm. Funny, cause he strained my patience. Supposedly he’ll be back right when his two week DL-stint is over.

Homer Bailey- Being called up to start on Saturday in place of Harang against Brewers. I’m sure the Brewers won’t mind either way.

Steven Pearce – And back down to the minors. When a team makes move as cunning as the Pirates, it’s baffling why they’ve had a losing record since 1992. It’s the Curse of Bream! Why don’t the Pirates invite Bream to Opening Day 2009 and surprise him with a clubbing? Hey, Sid, your fly’s down. Get em, boys! I’m sure Randall Simon’s available to do the clubbing.

Brandon Morrow – Kurt Suzuki took him deep to blow his save. When Suzuki circled the bases, from the way he was smiling, you would’ve thought he just won the World Series, except for the tumbleweeds blowing through the stands.

Dave Bush – 8 IP, 13 Ks, 0 ER, 3 H and one of the best starts of the year. His home/road splits are big enough to take a flier on him when he’s at home, right? I can’t make a ball gag joke and tell you to stay away from Bush in the same post, can I? Am I secure enough in my testes? As Lupe Fiasco might say, “Kick, Bush.”

Zach Greinke/Mark Buehrle/Jeremy Guthrie – Guys I have on quite a few teams. One team, all three — 21 1/3 IP, 19 Ks, 2 ER, .85 WHIP, Zero Wins. I think I’ve been Greinke’d!

Howie Kendrick – I went to a concert last night, so I missed some stuff, but when I came home and saw Kendrick hit two home runs, a few things that passed through my mind, 1. Why did the Rangers bring the outfield in in the 2nd and 5th innings? 2. Did they let Kendrick bat from 2nd base? 3. Why was Corey Feldman pitching for the Rangers? 4. Could I hit a home run in Arlington?  5. Have the Rangers considered a humidor? 6. I went to high school with a kid by the name of Howie. He has more Myspace friends than me. 7. Did they let Kendrick use an aluminum bat? 8. Howie Kendrick is like a poor man’s Polanco. So if Keppinger is Blanco Polanco, what does that make Kendrick? 9. Could ten things actually pass through my mind about Kendrick hitting 2 HRs? 10. Yup.