Fantasy Baseball Advice

Much like Ron Howard’s movies, Ryan Howard’s swings are hit or miss. Lately, he’s been more A Beautiful Mind than The Grinch Who Stole Christmas. If he can just get the average up, he’ll reach the pinnacle of Night Shift. However, the chances of that are the same as Chase Utley marrying a mermaid. But Philly fans are smart enough to not look at just average.  They check slugging percentages before they start chucking batteries.  Who can forget the sabermetric death threats at Mitch Williams - a BABIP of .100 couldn’t compensate for your K/BB and HR/FB ratio! What is Ryan Howard averaging more than one a game since May 1? If you guessed cheese steaks and hot dogs, you may be right. But if you guessed RBIs, you’re definitely right. As far back as mid-April, I told you he will hit 40 home runs, go out and get him no matter what his early season looks like. I told you in May, when Howard was in the midst of a terrible slump, he would go into the All-Star Break with the most home runs. Since May 1st, he’s hit 46/22/71/.258 and 68 Pork Roll sandwiches. Yum! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Vernon Wells - Hits the DL with a Grade 2 strain. Or as we called it in Grade 2, a boo-boo. He’ll be out 4-6 weeks; I’d drop him. Send your Get Well Soon cards to Toronto c/o Nobody Cares.

Richie Sexson - Was released by the Mariners. I was trying to come up with the perfect Sexson blurb, but all I kept thinking of was “Blechhhh!” So Sexson doesn’t get a blurb, he gets a burp. (BTW, I almost made him the lead, but I realized he’s been a non-story for two years. If he was the lead, his title would’ve been, “My Girl Doesn’t Like Sexson The Bumhole.”)

John Maine - He should’ve dusted the Giants like Mrs. Garrett did the Drummond household. (BTW, “Mrs.” my ass. Unless she was hitched in Hawaii to Paula Poundstone.) I can only assume the forearm cramps are bothering Maine still. Hopefully the All-Star Break gives them time to heal.

Erik Bedard - Hits the DL. But he was more or less on the DL anyway. Eff why eye, I wouldn’t be looking to grab Seattle Mariners for their 2nd half race to a 100 losses.

Moises Alou - Revealed he has a torn left hamstring. I guess peeing on his leg only made it worse. I think this might be the last we see of an Alou until his son, Shlomo, makes it to the majors in 2012.

Justin Upton - Oblique strain, but I think they’ve narrowed it down to somewhere in his abdominal.

Dustin McGowan - Tear in his rotator cuff. Punt.

Kevin Slowey - 6 ER in less than 4 IP. I said I liked him, I never said I loooooved him. For those Twins fetishists out there, I’d prefer Baker in a ball gag.

Justin Morneau - 5-for-5, someone asked in the comments if I liked him better than Atkins. I do. What else do you want me to say?! (I’ll talk more about this in Friday’s afternoon Buy/Sell. Or not! Wait and see! Or not! Actually, these “Or not”s could go on forever. Or not!)

Todd Jones - Blew a save yesterday. Guess how many that is. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *taps foot, picks nose and checks watch* Time’s up! Only his second blown save. Zumaya will see some chances soon, but I don’t know if Jones goes the way of Borowski just yet.

Aaron Harang - Placed on the 15-day DL. Strained forearm. Funny, cause he strained my patience. Supposedly he’ll be back right when his two week DL-stint is over.

Homer Bailey- Being called up to start on Saturday in place of Harang against Brewers. I’m sure the Brewers won’t mind either way.

Steven Pearce - And back down to the minors. When a team makes move as cunning as the Pirates, it’s baffling why they’ve had a losing record since 1992. It’s the Curse of Bream! Why don’t the Pirates invite Bream to Opening Day 2009 and surprise him with a clubbing? Hey, Sid, your fly’s down. Get em, boys! I’m sure Randall Simon’s available to do the clubbing.

Brandon Morrow - Kurt Suzuki took him deep to blow his save. When Suzuki circled the bases, from the way he was smiling, you would’ve thought he just won the World Series, except for the tumbleweeds blowing through the stands.

Dave Bush - 8 IP, 13 Ks, 0 ER, 3 H and one of the best starts of the year. His home/road splits are big enough to take a flier on him when he’s at home, right? I can’t make a ball gag joke and tell you to stay away from Bush in the same post, can I? Am I secure enough in my testes? As Lupe Fiasco might say, “Kick, Bush.”

Zach Greinke/Mark Buehrle/Jeremy Guthrie - Guys I have on quite a few teams. One team, all three — 21 1/3 IP, 19 Ks, 2 ER, .85 WHIP, Zero Wins. I think I’ve been Greinke’d!

Howie Kendrick - I went to a concert last night, so I missed some stuff, but when I came home and saw Kendrick hit two home runs, a few things that passed through my mind, 1. Why did the Rangers bring the outfield in in the 2nd and 5th innings? 2. Did they let Kendrick bat from 2nd base? 3. Why was Corey Feldman pitching for the Rangers? 4. Could I hit a home run in Arlington?  5. Have the Rangers considered a humidor? 6. I went to high school with a kid by the name of Howie. He has more Myspace friends than me. 7. Did they let Kendrick use an aluminum bat? 8. Howie Kendrick is like a poor man’s Polanco. So if Keppinger is Blanco Polanco, what does that make Kendrick? 9. Could ten things actually pass through my mind about Kendrick hitting 2 HRs? 10. Yup.

I can picture Tim Kurkjian’s voice cracking, Is this a Great Game, or What?!. Joe Morgan won’t be invited. Bill James will throw out the first pitch. A nickname like Baseball Crank will be worn as a badge of honor. Someone will argue that Pat Burrell isn’t really that bad of a baseball player and make a perfectly logical argument. Everyone will be wearing a lazy frown yet be completely happy. So why does Santana start the All-Star Game in our world instead of in The Real World where he wasn’t even invited? (Not The Real World: Hollywood, which lost two key members of its cast, and now sputters towards a reunion.) Quality Starts this year: Haren, Hudson and Lincecum are tied for first with 15. Santana (it’s safe to say Santana would’ve got another QS last night if not for rain) is #2 with 14. Webb and Volquez win the bronze with 13. Yet, Haren and Santana are tied for 15th in wins with 8. Listen to some with 10 wins — Lohse, Nolasco, Cook, Padilla, Floyd (not Bannister) and, of course, Andy Sonnanstine. Okay, but what does this have to do with fantasy baseball? Everything, you schmohawk! If any potential trade partner thinks any of those guys gets to twenty wins, then you politely agree and rob them blind. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dustin McGowan - Placed on the McDL. I’d look McElsewhere. He’ll be an interesting sleeper (as they say in the biz, whatever biz this is) next spring.

Scott Linebrink - It was annonced he would fill-in for closer. So, of course, Dotel got the save. Yeah, that works. Thanks. If I was looking for a few saves, Dotel would now be the man I’d target.

Ryan Spilborghs - To the DL with an oblique strain. Doctor, I have an oblique problem. Well, Ryan, why don’t you just be more specific? Oofa!

Derek Lowe - Almost pitched a perfect game. Sounds like Alyssa Milano’s giving herpes to someone tonight.

Scott Hairston - HR yesterday. Guess how many he has. Go ahead. I’ll wait. Wrong! 14. You ready for a double dose of brain freeze? You would’ve got better production if you drafted the Hairstons instead of the Uptons. Ow, my temples hurt! Wait, here comes the knuckler — ESPN: The Magazine should’ve featured the Hairston brothers on their baseball issue instead of the Uptons. Stop, Grey, my eyes are bleeding from these sentences that make no sense!

Moises Alou - Still battling nicks and crannies. Probably has something to do with him being 84-years-old and older than his father.

Nick Markakis - I am Sparkakis!

Jonathan Sanchez - Got a tough break when the rain came and forced his start to get cut short. He could’ve went another two innings. Or not! What am I, psychic?

Carlos Quentin - 2 HRs. I see no reason why he can’t hit 5 home runs a month from now until the end of the year aka 35 HRs total also also known as 14 more HRs.

Garrett Atkins - 2 HRs. Now has 14 on the year, I say he ends with 27. That’s less than most think, making him a Buy Low of Moderate Proportions.

Mark Mulder - In the forums, Peter had this to say, “Mulder recorded one out in the top of the 1st, walked 2, then left the game with an injury…. On the bright side, neither of the runners scored… so it is arguably Mulder’s most effective start since May 17, 2006.” It’s funny, because it’s true.

Josh Hamilton - He gets high on K-Rod’s supply.

Juan Rivera - Hit his third home run and this is officially the last time I will mention him. Some other guys I officially stopped talking about this season are Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, Dioner Navarro, Shane Victorino, Eugenio Velez… Okay, they weren’t all gems. (BTW, Velez just got recalled and Bochy said something like this (I don’t feel like looking up the exact quote), “Velez might get to pinch run, but that’s about it.” Seriously, he said something like that. Ouch, right? What? Without the actual quote it loses its oomph? You look it up then.)

Lance Berkman - 2 steals, now 14 on the year. Berkman is making a strong case for Fantasy MVP, if they gave out an award for that shizz. His numbers so far 76/22/70/.348/14. He will absolutely kill some fantasy owners next year when he’s drafted too early.

Jeff Francoeur - You ride out Player A for three months through the worst slump of their career, then you drop Player A on Friday when they are demoted to the minors. Now Player A returns three days later and, in his second game back, he hits a home run. Do you pick up Player A again? Or do you risk watching Player A perform well on someone else’s team? Within the answer to this question is your very existence. If you pick up Player A again, you’re the type to give people lots of chances, including girlfriends. Sure, she slept with my best friend, but she was thinking about me. Sometimes this leads to people walking all over you. You’ll think you’re happy, but you won’t actually be for your entire life. Now if you’re the type that doesn’t pick up Player A, you’re tough as nails, and no one walks over you. You also distance yourself from people and don’t cut people enough slack. We broke up because she talked during the opening fifteen minutes of Goodfellas. NOBODY’S allowed to talk during that. You’ll probably find yourself cold and alone for the rest of your life. And that my friends is the Intro to the Tao of Frenchy. You’re welcome.

With visions of a goat, Bartman and a fat man, the Cubs traded for Rich Harden. The Cubs are so my neighbor that bought a Prius after I bought my Saab. Seriously, Cubbies, why don’t you build a bigger extension onto the side of your house too? Then when I have a Fourth of July party, I can urinate in your tomatoes. Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah, Rich Harden! Harden’s never pitched 200 IP in a season. He came close four years ago with 189.2. Since then Harden’s innings pitched look like this: 128, 46.2, 25.2 and 77 thus far this year. I guess it’s a good sign that he got over that 46.2 hump. If the Cubs plan to play late into October, then he’ll be way over 200. From a fantasy baseball prospective, this all means little. Harden goes to a less-friendly park, but a new league that isn’t familiar with him. That’s a push. His stuff is certifiably nasty, but he still can hurt himself sneezing. You know what Harden is? He’s untradeable. I just wrote this last Friday when I said Harden was a Sell, “Not sure who you’re selling (Harden) to…” The Cubs, I suppose. How do the Cubs make this move? They traded for a guy my 12 year old cousin, Little Stevie, wouldn’t touch and Aunt Caroline used to drink while pregnant with him! I like Gaudin and Gallagher better and I will be bidding a few dollars on them in deep leagues. I even like Murton better. If the Cubs waited two weeks to make this trade, it probably wouldn’t have happened because Harden will probably be on the DL. I’m going to make a prediction, Harden hits the DL and the Cubs end up slotting in Gaudin who turns into a quality pitcher and ends up starting in the playoffs. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ben Sheets/CC Sabathia - Now that the Cubs can match their frail righty (Harden) and tubby flamethrower (Zambrano), will the Cardinals ask the Yanks for Ponson back to team up with Carpenter later this year?

Bobby Jenks - Hater Bell was mystified last week when Karabell told everyone (who pays for ESPN’s Hindsighter™) to bank on Jenks. Jenks has been reporting back pain for over a week. Linebrink (or Thornton or Dotel) will step in and get some saves. This didn’t seem like rocket science to me, but maybe it was for Karabell. Now Jenks heads to the DL. Well, dur.

Miguel Cabrera - 2 HRs yesterday. In three years, you’ll be telling someone about how Cabrera wasn’t good for you back in ‘08 and they’ll look at his stats and say, “Nuh-uh.” And then you’ll say, “Didn’t the Martians say we couldn’t use the phrase, ‘Nuh-uh? Busted!’”

Mike Pelfrey - Another quality start (7 IP, 3H, no ER).  Granted, it was against the Giants, but still…. Actually, I’m still not buying into Pelfrey.

Mike Aviles - 4-for-7 or as I like to say, “Khalil Greene has only had two 3 hit nights all year.” What I also could’ve said, “Greene is 3-for-22 in July.” Which means, “I hate Tulo for making me play Greene in a deep league.”

Aubrey Huff/Joe Crede - How do these guys have 34 HRs between them (18 for Huff, 16 for Crede)?  Those would’ve been our over/unders for their full season totals.  Maybe ex-Devil Ray Huff is getting some of the good fortune befitting his old team.  Wait…Jorge Cantu is having a hell of a season.  How come Delmon hasn’t gotten the memo?  As for Crede, we give up.  He’s like the younger Mike Lowell.  He can hit .250 or .300.  15 HR or 35 HR.  Play 150 games.  Play 60 games.  Nothing surprises anymore.  Hear that.  You can’t surprise us any more.

Randy Wolf - Another quality Petco start with 7 IP of 1 ER ball.  He’s like a wolf when he pitches at home and like Randy Wolf when he pitches away.

Alexis Rios - I missed the Jays last night because I was watching “I Love Money.” (Bee tee dubya, it’s a new reality show high. They’ve brought back 15 of the “best” reality show contestants who were looking for money while they were supposedly looking for love. Only now they are being open about it being all for money, but it looks like some inadverently fall in love. However, the first time it was obvious they were only interested in money and some fell in love anyway. It’s like a Möbius strip of nonsense. But I digress.) So all I saw of the Jays was this scroll, “Rios scored the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth…” I was like, “Aw, sookie. Triple, Double? Single?” It was a walk.

Jair Jurrjens - 6 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER, the win and the saving grace for the proud people of Curaçao.

Brian McCann/Geovany Soto - They are having nearly identical seasons. Brianvany SotoCann should totally switch Varsity jackets and see if their dates notice.

Dustin McGowan - I warned people about McGowan’s overuse last season. Yesterday, he exited early for an MRI. Quick math problem: An MRI + Overuse = 15-day DL that gets extended to 30 days.

Chase Headley - 24 Ks/0 walks. He’s really not much better than Bruce, it just seems it because it’s a little less feast or famine (which is, like, soooooo American of you to like Headley more. It’s the middle class.)

Ryan Dempster/Justin Duchscherer - 16 IP, 4 hits allowed and 1 ER. Combined. If you made us GM for a year, we’d turn all the relievers into starters.  Except Gagne.  We’d turn him into a team mascot like the Quazy Quebecois.

Aaron Harang - Fuck you.

Jake Peavy is scheduled to start on Thursday. Despite the fact that Peavy’s been on the DL for much of the year and the whole offense blows except for A-Gonz and Brian Giles’ OBP, San Diego is only 7 games back of Arizona. But just in case Jake was feeling nervous, we thought we’d calm him down with some inspiration from claymation canine Goliath (if this doesn’t ring a bell, watch the YouTube video first.)

Jake Peavy plaintively looking around the San Diego locker room at his teammates.

Goliath: Whatcha looking for, Peeeaveeey?
Jake: Goliath, do you see any hitters in this locker room?
Goliath: It matters what you mean by a hitter, Peeaveeey.
Jake: These people keep telling me that we have an offense but I look around and they all suck except for Adrian Gonzalez.
Goliath: That’s not a nice thing to say.
Jake: I know, Goliath. I guess I’m just nervous.
Goliath: Why is that, Peeeaveeey?
Jake: It’s just…I’m coming off a fairly long DL stint and my only practice was against my teammates. I’m afraid I’ll give up more than 1 run and then I won’t have a chance to get a win.
Goliath: Oh Peeeaveeey. Well I know a lot of fantasy baseball teams count on you and they realize you probably won’t win because the Padres offense is damned on account of Khalil Greene believing in a cockamamie religion.
Jake: Cocka-what?
Goliath: But if you give them 10 Ks and 3 runs or less in 7 IP, they’ll be very happy.
Jake: You really think so, Goliath.
Goliath: I know so, Peeeaveey. Now get off my DL and earn me some stats.
Jake: You got it, Goliath!

Anyway, here’s what else we saw:

Ryan Ludwick - The breakthrough season continues. 4-5, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI. We have him as the 25th most valuable player so far this year (based on Point Shares). Ankiel chipped in a HR too. And no one involved in the Cardinal organization drove drunk tonight. That’s a heartwarming night for the Cards except….

Albert Pujols - Strained his calf and was helped off the field. He was said to have ‘calf cramps’ for a couple days now. Someone start massaging his motherfuckin’ calf. What’s the problem here? Wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the DL. At least he could spend some time with his children on Father’s Day - with the youngest entering college in September, he’s got to learn to cherish these moments.

Chris Duncan - If Pujols does take an extended siesta, we can see Dave’s Kid.

Dustin McGowan - Did his best Roy Halladay impersonation with a complete game win against Seattle. That is 5 quality starts out of 6 since his 9 ER stinker on May 10th

Dodgers - Furcal’s now rumored to be out until the All-Star Break. Schmidt smells like sourdough toast. Andruw would be shot if he was a horse. Nomar is more fragile than Alanis Morisette after a breakup. That’s 4 of your top 5 in Dodger salary. Hell, Juan Pierre is a relative bargain at $8MM/per….

Jonathan Broxton - Saw him bat yesterday. Member the show Mama’s Family? Imagine Mama with a bat.

Bill Hall - Started at 2nd with Rickie being weak. Hall at 2nd is butter on the rooster, if you catch my drift. (I don’t even catch my drift, but I’m writing this at midnight my time, so bear with me.)

Rocco Baldelli - Is playing in extended spring training. What is extended spring training? Is this like after hours clubs that always have the “most slammin’ music” and the “most bangin’ ladies” then when you show up it’s 30,000 Asian dudes with glow sticks drinking energy drinks.

Josh Barfield - Hurt himself right after getting called up. Looks like Father’s Day at the Barfield’s, Jesse might have to bust out those hilarious anecdotes of how him and his other son send each other to the hospital.

In fantasy baseball, it’s imperative to trade away overrated players before they lose their luster and trade for underrated players. Then there’s simply the rated ones. If this reads vaguely familiar, it’s because I’m cribbing Chuck Klosterman, who I think is brilliant. Here’s the relevant quote to better understand what follows:

If you are the kind of person who talks about music too much, there are two words that undoubtedly play an integral role in your workaday lexicon: “overrated” and “underrated.” This is because those two sentiments pop up in 90 percent of all musical discussions.

He goes on to list bands that are overrated (Wilco, Sonic Youth) or underrated (Duran Duran, Tortoise), coming finally to bands that simply rated, which are no more or less than their reviews (The Beatles). Klosterman’s theory also applies for fantasy baseball. Let’s look at some overrated, underrated and rated players.

OVERRATED

Ryan Braun - As I said earlier today, “I had Braun 22 overall. It’s not like I had him between Hank Blalock and David Ross. I think his average is below .285 and he’s below 15 steals. He’s basically Carlos Lee with 3B eligibility and without the track record. Carlos Lee does Braun’s thing for 7 years and Braun does it for four months and Braun should go ten spots before him? I just don’t get it.” When you put a player twenty-two overall and people say you are unfairly down on him, that player is the definition of overrated. (BTW, I have a picture of Jesus in my office and it’s signed, “Grey, Thanks for steering me away from Ryan Braun. You are a Fantasy God. Love, Your Savior. P.S. What do you think about Lackey for Alex Gordon? I’m good on starters, but have Cust as my Utility.”)

Ryan Zimmerman - Before the Anti-Defamation League of Ryans contacts me, I swear I have no prejudice towards the name Ryan. I even just picked up Ryan Franklin in a league and I’ve eaten at Ryan Gosling’s Moroccan Restaurant — the couscous was overcooked, but the bastilla was good. Then again, who’s ever had a bad bastilla? Someone who puts catsup on egg noodles and calls it pasta, that’s who.

Dustin McGowan - He threw too many innings last year. If you like math — Pitcher who has a good season + overworked = overrated. (More math problems, MTV reality shows = mindless wonderfulness. Republicans = Democrats. Hispanics + peanut butter and jelly sandwiches = Unhappy Hispanics.)

Any AL Starter - Hater Bell covered this in this post. I don’t like trading apples for apples (starter for starter, third basemen for third basemen, etc.), but I can almost get behind a trade like Lackey and Cliff Lee for Wainwright and Maine. In fact, I likey. Hey, I just made a hypothetical trade with myself.

Any Closer - Think of them as a necessary evil and you’ll be better off. I love to do trades like Mariano Rivera for Josh Hamilton then turn around and trade Josh Hamilton for Trevor Hoffman and Matt Capps then turn around and trade Capps for Victorino. Closers are like girls. You will overvalue them at first, grow to despise them, wish you traded them for their sister, not understand how they can get over you so fast when you drunkenly call them at three in the morning. Finally, you find a replacement then get a sex tape in the mail of your ex with your best friend time dated to the afternoon of your one year anniversary. Or maybe that’s me. Anyway, don’t get too attached.

UNDERRATED

Any Setup Man - Rudy claims he taught me how to use middle men many years ago. I don’t remember it, but maybe. Or maybe that’s his consolation for losing to me last year. And three years ago. And four years ago.

Any Big-Bellied 1st Basemen that is Currently Struggling - These guys could go 100/40/100 in their sleep. Howard’s average might leave something to be desired, but he’s a .265 hitter. What, you wanted a fat Ichiro?

Any Padres Pitcher - I could have a 4.50 ERA in Petco and I throw like a girl.

Aaron Cook - He’s a ground ball pitcher. It’s hard to hit ground balls out of the yard.

Any NL Starter - See 5 3/4 inches above.

Me - I think I’m good for about seven to eight posts a week. Maybe 500 to 700 words per post. Everyone has off days, but I think at the end of the season, you’ll be better off with me than without. And I can beat you in checkers. (Union County Checker Champion grades 5 thru 7. That horn is twenty years old and I’m still tooting it.)

Shawn Hill - As someone who has tried to beat the drum about about this guy, I can tell his fan club is not well-attended. In one of my leagues, I tried to trade Hill for Stephen Drew when Tulo went down. That trade got shot down quicker than David Eckstein trying to get on a roller coaster.

Melky Cabrera - Considering the Yankees hype machine it’s weird to find any Yankee on this list, but somehow people ain’t feeling Melky. Even after being crowned the best name in baseball according to Larry King.

RATED

Eric Gagne - Backne isn’t on the juice anymore and it’s hurting him. Karma is your mother-in-law.

Nick Punto - Might even be unrated.

Carlos Lee - Everyone knows what you’re going to get.

Mike Cameron - 20/20/.250 for like forty years in a row. He was the only person who got caught sipping the cheating juice and no one lowered one single prediction.

Milton Bradley - Predictable, injury-prone loose cannon. I wonder if Cliff Floyd and him are buds. That’s one carpool I would not want to be party to. (”Milton, can you grab my Mary J. Blige CD from the backseat?” “Sure, Cliff, is it next to your diaphragm?” Car screeches to the side of the road, they jump out to fight only to simultaneously pull a hammy.)