Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yes, the title does sound like a Chinese R & B song.  Krispie Young (For new readers, Krispie Young is the phonetic pronunciation of Chris B. Young to help avoid confusion with Cristal Young.) has been hot as cauliflower after a good broiling.  5 homers in 4 games this week; the post-All-Star Break last year saw him go 9/9 with a respectable (for him) .278.  In 2007, he hit 19 homers and stole 18 bases in the 2nd half (ah, those were the days for Krispie).  It’s critical to have the hot hands on your team this time of the year, especially in H2H leagues.  I’d absolutely lose a cold player to take a chance on Young.  Really, what do you have to lose, besides your league.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we get to the Buy/Sell, just wanted to remind people that Fantasy Football has a fire going.  So, if you like, take your marshmallows over there.

BUY

Marlon Byrd – Batting over .500 for the last week.  More than that, he has 17 homers and 8 steals on the year while batting .287.  Yeah, he’s outperforming Carlos Beltran.  How’s dem apples?  Sour?  Ryght?

Seth Smith – Another guy that is outperforming Beltran on the year.  Weird game we got here, fellas (and two girl readers).  In the beginning of the year if you would’ve told me I’d be better off drafting Seth Smith than Beltran in the 2nd round, I would’ve punched you in the nose.  No apology either.  Just a nod telling you you had it coming.  Smith’s time may get bushwhacked a bit by Fowler, but with the way Smith’s hitting, I think the Rox work him in.

Carlos Gonzalez – Let’s all just own Rockies, shall we?  I like that idea.  The nice thing about CarGo (take that, Carlos Gomez!) is that even when he’s not hitting homers, he’s stealing bases.  Aim to please, that’s CarGo’s MotTo.

Ian Desmond – Scroll down to the last post to see what I had to say about him.  Go ahead, we’ll wait.  This is, after all, all about you.

Juan Gutierrez – Gutierrez is the closer.  Not officially maybe.  Or maybe officially.  What, you need a letter from the Queen of England?  He’s getting saves.  That’s all that matters.  How is he only owned in 6% of ESPN leagues?  If you give me your password, I’ll pick him up for you.

Ryan Madson – In the past, Madson hasn’t been great in the closer role, which leads me to…

Brett Myers – He can sneak in and grab a few saves.  Upwards to 4 saves.  Enticing, eh?  Almost as enticing as having your girlfriend meet a drunk Brett Myers at a bar.  I don’t think the closerousel in Philly will be nearly as clear cut as some might think, but there’s so little time left, any of these guys could run with the job for a few weeks.  How’s that for hedging bets?

Mike Gonzalez – Saves in Hotlanta could be a Mike G. Joint.

Madison Bumgarner – In keepers, you own him.  In other leagues, it’s doubtful he sees another start.

Wade Davis – The Rays decided they were better off with Davis over Sonnanstine.  Rookie nookie is alive and well in Tampa.  Our weather is as humid as our pitchers! What are you talking about?  Never you mind.  Friends of the random italicized voice will appreciate it. Wade Davis is still capable of being mollywhopped so if you can’t handle that caveat, do what you do.

Brandon Morrow – Very few starters are coming into the league right now with potential.  Mostly, you’re relying on matchups at this time of the year.  Build up complete.  Brandon Morrow’s back in the rotation.

Eric Young Jr. – I’m warning you now.  This winter will be The Winter of Eric Young Jr. (patent pending).

Michael Brantley – If you’re the kind of guy who paints a face on fruit right before you bite it just to show you’re in charge, then you know what I’m going to say, because I’m that guy too.  Brantley = SAGNOF!

SELL

Carlos Beltran – It was nice that you held onto him through his lengthy DL stint.  Loyalty!  You’ll make a good husband one day.  But just because he’s back, doesn’t mean he’s back back.  He’s still in the cavernous Metco for his home games and it could take a week or two for him to get up to speed.  You have time to wait for him?  Then throw in his knee might hinder his running game.  If you’re in a deep league, I can understand holding him and hoping for the best.  But if there’s guys on waivers, I’d lose Ricky from My So Called Life.

Brad Hawpe – I told you to sell him in June when he was still hitting.  He really hasn’t hit much since then.  You can’t play these vets who aren’t producing just because you wrote, “I Heart Hawpe,” all over your Trapper Keeper.

Joba Chamberlain – I understand you’re a fan of a descendants of much-maligned British Prime Ministers, but he’s pitching three innings at a time.  And not even pitching them very well.

B.J. Upton – Ankle flare ups are hindering his running game.  Being sucky flare ups are hindering everything else.

Our fearless leader has been crippled by some Kryptonic supermarket macaroni salad so I will be your tour guide through the daily baseball comings and goings.

So J.P. Ricciardi waved goodbye to Alex Rios and freed up some money so he can buy some tickets to Moneyball The Movie and to get one of them new-fangled Adam Dunn verification machines for his phone.  Rios hasn’t been great outside of Toronto this year, but The Cell isn’t exactly Petco Central.  He actually has picked it up a bit going 6-14 with 2 home runs in his last 4 games. As long as Rios gets playing time he should continue his 20/20 pace.  But knowing Ozzie he could bat Rios behind Wise and Getz in the 12th hole or Kenny Williams could pick Ryan Braun off waivers and Rios will go to the bench.

Chris Coghlan — As soon as I drop this guy he goes all mini-mini-dwarf donkey on me.  He just set a record for most multi hit games in a row by a Marlin with eight.  He’s not going to win you a championship, but he’ll replace some schmohawk who hasn’t had a multi hit game in about two months.

Leo Nunez – Matt Lindstrom should eventually take over Nunez’s SAGNOF slot, but yesterday he got into trouble and had to be saved by Nunez and his SAGNOF slot.

Jordan Zimmermann — After my heart stopped when I read the headline “Zimmerman To Get Tommy John Surgery” I realized that it wasn’t Ryan and if you have JZ on your DL it’s time to replace him with a Hudson/Peavy type.

Mark Ellis — 5-5 with 4 RBI’s and is 21-50 in his last 14 games.  If you are hurting for some MI help take a look because there are some real schmohawks playing 2b and you probably have one on your team and you might as well switch him out for another.

Travis Snider — With Rios moving to the south side it seems like Snider should get called up.  That of course is yet to be seen, but he hit a homer yesterday and  is hitting well with a .320 AVG, 12 hr, 36 RBIs, 150 ab, .653 slg.  Grab him if he is available and then drop him when he isn’t called up.

Troy Tulowitzki — He hit for the cycle, and went 5-5 with 7 RBI’s vs. the Cubs while Aaron Miles was dragged to the top of Mt. Elbert and thrown off.

Johnny Cueto — Left the game after 2 innings with a hip flexor.  This gives anyone still holding onto him an easy out.  Drop him like a hot Cueto.

Chris B. Young — Demoted to the three A’s.  Krispie just never could show us his warm chewy goodness this year.  It’s hard to believe he won’t get his swing back in the minors and then be a sleeper once again.

Dexter Fowler — While writing this Fowler just made a tremendous over the shoulder catch in the ninth while slamming into the wall with the Rockies up by eight.  Watching him this series I can see what Grey sees in him.  He’s more than just another SAGNOF slot for all you Razzballers to abuse!

Trent Oeltjen — Well, he’s been getting plenty of notice here on the daily round up, but anybody who has a magical “M” floating around their last name needs a little press, plus with The Krispie One demoted he should get some more playing time, that, and he out-homered Mark Reynolds last night during the “Summer of Mini-Donkey.”

Russell Branyan — He hit a solo home run.  That is all.

Kendry Morales — The dude, (he is a dude right? I mean I never see this person play because I’m usually on my 4th appletini and it’s about 2 am), this dude just keeps hitting.  Two home runs last night (or this morning) which moves him up to 25 donks and 75 RDI’s (runs donked in) and it’s only in the 6th and I am going to bed!

Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers.  Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle!  Triangle!  Triangle!  Cow bell!  More cow bell!  One last ding.  In today’s installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers, we’re going to look at some outfielders and try to figure out if maybe the numbers tell a different story than their names tell.  Anyway, here’s the latest in Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers:

Player A – Last season, 95/17/71/.303/29
Player B – Last season, 112/22/66/.280/12

Player A is Johnny Damon, Player B is Curtis Granderson

Player A – In 362 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/4/39/.285/23
Player B – In 379 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/5/31/.253/21

Player A is Alex Rios, Player B is Carlos Gomez

Player A – In 248 at-bats Post-All Star, 36/9/39/.278/9
Player B – In 268 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/9/25/.299/13

Player A is Krispie Young, Player B is Matt Kemp.

Player A – In 218 at-bats Post-All Star, 42/9/36/.335/3
Player B – In 198 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/10/37/.288/3

Player A is Andre Ethier, Player B is Mark DeRosa

Player A – In 557 at-bats last year, 66/15/84/.293/7
Player B – In 575 at-bats last year, 80/10/69/.290/14

Player A is Garrett Anderson, Player B is Delmon Young

Player A – In 356 at-bats last year, 52/15/42/.250/1
Player B – In 340 at-bats last year, 53/20/55/.235/2

Player A is Justin Upton, Player B is Jim Edmonds.  This is not an endorsement of Jim Edmonds, but a warning on Upton.

Player A – In 502 at-bats last year, 74/17/61/.249/6
Player B – In 461 at-bats last year, 59/22/73/.260/6

Player A is Jeremy Hermida, Player B is Cody Ross

Player A – In 221 at-bats Post-All Star, 30/7/29/.299/11
Player B – In 231 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/4/20/.290/15

Player A is Lastings Milledge, Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury

Player A – In 247 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/11/35/.296/2
Player B – In 251 at-bats Post-All Star, 43/9/29/.311/14

Player A is Josh Hamilton, Player B is Shane Victorino… VICTORINO!

Where have all the groin pulls gone?  In my day, you pulled a hammy or a groin, and you liked it!  Now, these kids are all about obliques.  What in tarnation is an oblique?  Where is it?  Is it even in your body?  Do you acquire it in some seedy alley in Tijuana?  Hurt your femur, dang’nabbit!  So Trevor Hoffman is laid up for a few with a strained oblique.  He’ll probably miss the first week of the season and, as with old people, they don’t bounce back like they used to, even with tennis balls on their walker.  So Trevor Hoffman might be out for longer than a week, then this injury might turn out to be a recurring injury that knocks him out for a week every month or so.  Who knows? I don’t even know what an oblique is, but it sounds vague.  Filling in for Hoffman might be Todd Coffey (my personal favorite), Carlos Villanueva (having a rough spring) and Seth McClung (bit more of a not-so-great starter than a not-so-great reliever).  I’d backup Hoffman with McClung, Coffey then Villanueva, in that order.  I don’t think Villanueva with his lack of closer experience and poor spring is getting the call.  Coffey is wild, homer-prone and jittery, but has looked none of that in the spring.  Then we have McClung, who sounds like a mouth breather.  I’m thinking it’s McClung.  Could be Coffey.  I’d grab them both until it sorts itself out.  But don’t pull too many important Jenga pieces from your team just to place McClung and/or Coffey on top.  Hoffman is still the closer when healthy.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Wilson Betemit – Hit his 5th HR of the spring.  Warning, I just drafted Betemit in an AL-Only league (I’ll reveal my team later today — Future Voila, snitches!), so I might make Betemit a bit of a poster boy for a week or two.  Hey, I gotta have weird outside-the-box-they-make-no-damn-sense sleepers too, right?  Oh, and even with five homers, Josh Fields is still outshining him.

Krispie Young – There’s a chance he opens the year hitting third.  Yum!

Mike Napoli – Might start the year on the DL.  Doesn’t change his projections.  He hit 20 HRs last year in, like, 24 at-bats.

Rich Hill – Won’t be in the Orioles starting rotation.  Shocker!

Max Scherzer – Someone in the comments yesterday said the D’backs are going to give Jobacum 170 innings this year.  That’s pretty silly. (Not silly that a commenter said this.  Silly because it’s true.)  Josh Byrnes, how is he not related to Eric, said Scherzer would get close to 170 innings.  170 innings?!  I keep writing it because it’s so unfathomable to me.  This could be huge for this year, but this could have terrible consequences down the line.  Oh, and how huge for 2009?  That could push him over 200 Ks for this year.  You’re looking at a potential top ten starter if he gets 170 innings.

Wandy Rodriguez – Continuing to nurse injuries.  It’s still very early; I’m still on the Wand-wagon.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Diamondbacks Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of AZ Snakepit.

1) I’m pretty high on Conor Jackson for 2009, going as far to call him Derrek Lee in a white man suit.  Care to fuel my fire and give me some projections?

Though drafted as a 3B and starting as the DBacks’ 1B the past few years, CoJack’s ‘natural position’ is OF — he finished the 2008 season as the starting LF. Despite Eric Byrnes’ presumed return this year, CoJack has been handed the starting job in the OF, and Byrnes should be the 4th OF. (If everyone stays healthy, it’ll be nice to have someone to give CY a rest in CF from time to time) Chad Tracy will play 1B against right-handed starters, with CoJack in LF; vs. lefties, CoJack will move back to 1B and Byrnes will play LF. Defensively, Jackson is a complete butcher at first, but a plus in left. He’ll probably never be a big HR hitter, but he should consistently hit at a .300 clip with 80-100 RBIs and 15-20 HRs — numbers to keep in mind in a keeper league. Jackson somehow upgraded his wheels between the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and went from 2 SBs to 10. I’m expecting him to steal in double digits again this year. (More on that later) His slugging % dropped in 2008 relative to 2007, but that should bounce back up.

2) True or false, Chad Qualls is the closer for the whole year never losing the job to Jon Rauch.

True, if only for the fact that Bob Melvin believes in the somewhat obsolescent notion that each team should stick to a single reliever as closer — BoMel also has a reputation for loyalty to his players. Over the 2008 season, Qualls had an overall opposing OPS+ of just 61, but w/ RISP, that jumped to 88; with a runner on 2nd, it was 131; and with runners on 2nd and 3rd, it was a blistering 239. (Insert small sample size warning. Incidentally, Qualls’ pitching ability with runners on also prompted me to draw up the attached visual aid directed at Bob Melvin, for which I won an artistic award.)

While Rauch was stellar with the Nats, his less than impressive performance (ERA+ of 70 after the trade) during the home stretch — wherein we lost the division to the Dodgers — means he’s starting the season with a lot to prove, nor is he particularly popular in the clubhouse. I’m guessing Rauch will get more neck tattoos than saves in 2009. A more likely replacement is the homegrown Tony Peña, a.k.a. The Pitcher Formerly Known As Adriano Rosario, or Max Scherzer over the long term. (If the whole starting thing doesn’t work out. Speaking of whom…)

3)  Max Scherzer had a huge Razzball following last year.  Someone said Scherzer was one part Tim Lincecum and one part Joba Chamberlain, giving him the nickname Jobacum, which I believe was meant to intentionally sound like a Star Wars-inspired porn film.  What can we expect of Jobacum in 2009?

Scherzer is officially entering the 2009 season as the Dbacks’ 5th starter, but in terms of ability he’s almost certainly the 3rd. He’s slated into the 5 spot to cut down on innings, and it has been mentioned that he may actually start the season on the DL, not because he’s actually injured, (though he did have shoulder soreness over the winter) but to free up a roster spot. His slot in the rotation isn’t scheduled to come up until a week or two into the season. Assuming Scherzer doesn’t miss time due to injury, (which is a fairly dangerous assumption) expect him to make 20-25 starts and pitch a max of 150 innings, toss up an ERA+ around 130, (over a full season he’s unlikely to duplicate his 151 in 2008) earn up to 10 wins, and strike out approximately 2,000 batters. Okay, so maybe 150 is more realistic — he fanned 66 in 56 innings in ‘08. In keeper leagues, over the long term, he’ll either move up to the 3rd starter spot or become our closer, based on how he performs this year. Eventually, he’ll replace Brandon Webb when Webby goes to the Yankees during or after the 2010 season. I really can’t give you a more solid 2009 estimate because there are just too many variables involved with Mad Max.

4) Krispie Young only stole 14 last year, leading the club.  Justin Upton, 1 steal in 108 games last year.  The Diamondbacks were 28th out of 30 clubs in 2008 for steals, trailing only Pittsburgh and San Diego.  A drop of 50 steals from 2007 to 2008.  What’s going on?  Melvin lose a bet to Billy Beane?

Steals — a strange thing happened last year. In the 2007 season, the Dbacks stole 109 bags, placing them a solid 5th in the NL, yet in 2008, they only had 58, despite getting a full season out of Justin Upton and a much better OBP from Stephen Drew. Drew has the speed to steal bases but not the will, much like the now-departed Orlando Hudson. Upton is a veritable speed demon, but even in the minors, he was only successful around 67% of the time. Part of the drop in steals has to be attributed to Eric Byrnes, whose injury-marred season dropped him from 50 in ‘07 to only 4 in ‘08. Byrnes’ hammies should be healed for 2009, but since he’s now platooning with CoJack and Tracy, he’ll see less playing time.

The SB news was not ALL dire, however. As previously noted, CoJack jumped up his steals total, and Mark Reynolds (who has deceptive speed) went from 0 in ‘07 to 11 in ‘08. Apparently, Bob Melvin decided last year that he only wanted his white guys to steal bases.  The club has already announced that they’re going to focus on stealing more bags in the 2009 season.  Look for Young to grab 30+.

5) The pool in Chase Field’s stands is meant to celebrate Arizona’s lifestyle.  What else should the Diamondbacks do to celebrate Arizona’s lifestyle? (Feel free to expand on why you chose a letter.)  A)  Instead of cap, pith helmet with fan.  B) After a home run, a player takes a Jell-o shot.   C) Tony Clark gets fake breasts.

D) Convert Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Conor Jackson and other Dbacks players to run on propane, and then convince the State of Arizona to pay 40% of the club’s player budget costs this year. (Go here for more info.)