Fantasy Baseball Advice

Sometime in 2009 it finally clicked in the collective Pirates brain that they needed to stop playing for now since they weren’t playing well for now anyway.  And with that kernel of “ah-ha,” the Pirates sent McLousy off the plank and ushered in Andrew McCutchen, The Dread Pirate.  The Dread Pirate proceeded to climb to the top of the sinking Pirate ship’s mast, tore a string from the Jolly Roger and swashbuckled his way into the hearts and minds of his fantasy owners and the seven Pirate season ticket holders.  Ahoy, Jonesy, drive me in after I steal this base. Gar.  And get me some mead, Ol’ Chumbucket! That’s you, Steven Pearce. You are Ol’ Chumbucket! Argh, don’t make me explain it. Yes, The Dread Pirate brought life where there wasn’t any for 2009, but what about in 2010 fantasy baseball, more of the same booty?

In 433 at-bats last year, McCutchen hit 12 homers with 22 steals while batting .286.  Below those numbers, we see a guy who consistently hits the ball on the ground more than in the air in 2009 and 2008 (in Triple-A, his GB vs. FB percentages were 49.4 vs. 32.2).  This is good for a guy who relies on his speed to get on base.  The power he showed last year may be slightly fluky.  After all, he did hit 8 homers in August, which seems extreme for him.  I.e., I wouldn’t expect a huge gain in homers in 2010.  Maybe 15 homers max.  His walk rate was a bit high last year, but he did show a good eye for when he should/should not swing.  With his speed and 15 homer power, he’s definitely a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper.  Think 80/14/65/.275/35.  For redraft leagues, The Dread Pirate can be someone who can provide more value than his draft spot, potentially taking a jump into the top 20 outfielders for 2010… Top 20 outfielders for 2010.  Aye, me parrot concurs.

With the top 40 outfielders, we’ve finished all the recaps for hitters.  (Here’s all the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  They’re also to your left… your other left.  And down.)  Pitching recap will begin next.  (NOTE:  The end of the season rankings are based on ESPN’s Player Rater.  I felt the easiest way to keep it objective would to go this course.  This way when I say someone finished 30th and I ranked them 23rd in the preseason it carries more weight.  Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect?  No.  It’s just an objective third party to see how well my preseason rankings did.)  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Carlos Lee – How did he only get 65 Runs?  He played in a 160 games.  He batted .300.  He hit 26 homers.  He hit 4th the entire year.  Oh, wait, I know.  Geoff Blum hit 5th for the Astros in 171 at-bats.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  100/33/110/.300/7, Final Numbers:  65/26/102/.300/5

22. Andre Ethier – Maybe it’s because of the pitcher’s park or the pitcher’s division, but I never fully get behind Dodgers hitters.  Lukewarm on Russell Martin, Loney, Hudson, Furcal, Blake, Ethier and Manny.  Kemp I’m crazy for, but I think you have to be crazy to not be crazy for him.  Preseason Rank #46, 2009 Projections:  80/17/75/.290/5, Final Numbers:  92/31/106/.272/6

23. Michael Cuddyer – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Final Numbers:  93/32/94/.276/6

24. Nick Markakis - Here we see the problem with relying on 25 homer power.  In an off year, they hit 18 homers and you wanna strangle someone.  Markakis had two months where he hit one homer (June and September) and one month of 2 homers (April).  His speed continues to decline.  He now has back-to-back seasons of 5 homers vs. lefties.  Markakis isn’t done in my eyes (he’s only going to be 26 in 2010), but I really would like to see 30 homers before going caca-cuckoo for him.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  95/25/100/.310/10, Final Numbers:  94/18/101/.293/6

25. Nelson Cruz – His season was actually much better than this ranking and that will be reflected in January when I go over 2010 rankings.  I say it’s much better because Runs and RBIs are a symptom of the guys around him.  The homers and steals can’t be taught, and he has them.  He could easily be a top 15 outfielder with better Runs and RBIs.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10, Final Numbers:  75/33/76/.260/20

26. Rajai Davis – After the All-Star Break, he stole 30 bases and hit .325.  DNA samples taken in the 2nd half of the season showed there was a 99.8% chance that Rajai was Carl Crawford.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  65/3/48/.305/41

27. Jason Kubel – In February, I alluded to how he was better value than Jermaine Dye.  And that’s me alluding to me!  Preseason Rank #61, 2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280, Final Numbers:  73/28/103/.300/1

28. Raul Ibanez – My call on him being a 2nd half hitter looked about as good as Lady Gaga’s clothing choices.  Preseason Rank #28, 2009 Projections:  85/25/110/.290/3, Final Numbers:  93/34/93/.272/4

29. Scott Podsednik – Sometime in May, Ozzie called him into his office.  This is what transpired.  “I want vintage Podsednik!”  “I don’t know if I have it in me, Skip.”  “Skip?!  What is that?  Punta talk?  Now go uncork a 2004 Podsednik!”  And he did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  75/7/48/.304/30

30. Adam Dunn – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  80/40/85/.245/5, Final Numbers:  81/38/105/.267

31. Hunter Pence – The same thing that hampered Carlos Lee also got Pence.  It’s called the lack of an Astros offense.  With a little help in Runs and RBIs, Pence would’ve been ranked much higher.  Preseason Rank #35, 2009 Projections:  85/28/95/.275/10, Final Numbers:  76/25/72/.282/14

32. Curtis Granderson - There was a whole lot of math done recently on Granderson’s year.  Long story short, he should’ve hit in the .270s rather than the .240s.  As is my wont, I usually ignore average anyway when a guy brings something else to the table.  Grandy brings 30/20.  That’s a whole lotta something else.  I feel like I may be owning Grandy next year on a few teams.  Preseason Rank #19, 2009 Projections:  115/22/75/.275/17, Final Numbers:  91/30/71/.249/20

33. Franklin Gutierrez – Back in February, I said, “I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16, Final Numbers:  85/18/70/.283/16

34. B.J. Upton – You know what would be nice?  Beej living up to(n) his potential.    Upton’s in the same category as Grandy.  Come February, I’ll be ignoring his bad average.  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/20/80/.280/35, Final Numbers:  79/11/55/.241/42

35. Marlon Byrd – I suggested in the preseason that you grab Byrd and David Murphy and platoon them.  Turns out you would’ve done fine just owning them both and playing them.  Preseason Rank #68, 2009 Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10, Final Numbers:  66/20/89/.283/8

36. Nate McLouth – McLousy turned in an old school Mike Cameron season.  20/20 — yay!  .256 — eh.  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.270/22, Final Numbers:  86/20/70/.256/19

37. Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate didn’t get his first at-bat of the season until June.  Go ahead, reread that sentence.  Now smize!  (The Tyra Banks definition, not the other one.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  74/12/54/.286/22

38. Brad Hawpe – Hawpe’s 2nd half was about as good as my ability to read Sumerian.  Apparently, the guy with the arrow on the ancient tablet means Hawpe shouldn’t be facing lefties.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  70/30/95/.280, Final Numbers:  82/23/86/.285/1

39. Juan Rivera – There should be a glossary term for these Juan Rivera types.  These players are available off of waivers in just about every 12 team league.  They don’t wow you with their numbers.  They don’t hurt your team.  They’re just there in your 5th outfielder slot.  Jason Kubel would be another one.  Each year, one steps up and does more than what is asked of them.  In 2008, it was Xavier Nady, this year it was Michael Cuddyer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  72/25/88/.287

40. Chris Coghlan – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post, Final Numbers:  84/9/47/.321/8

Carlos Beltran won’t play in day games following night games.  He won’t play in too many games in a row.  He won’t play in games where the other team’s starting pitcher’s last name ends in an N.  Here’s me playing the world’s smallest violin for everyone at Metco.  Since Beltran’s return, 1 homer and zero steals.  So he’s not running and he’s hitting for an empty average with little power.  There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no sentimentality in fantasy baseball.  If you’re holding onto your 2nd round pick because you held him this long already, well, you’ve held him too long.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If Oliver Perez is the crazy girlfriend that you have hot passionate sex with but is afraid may stab you in the jugular in the middle of the night, then Anibal is her sister.  (If you followed that, give yourself a gold star.)

Dan Uggla – Hit his 30th homer yesterday as the Marlins rubbed their hands together thinking about who they were going to get for Uggla this offseason.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Threw a gem against the Marlins.  I overthought this one and… sonavabench!  Should’ve just started him.  (BTW, is overthought one word or two?  There I go again!)

Hiroki Kuroda – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was in the borderline starters post on Monday.  He’s a decent start on Sunday too.

Rafael Furcal – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs.  No one plays harder when you’re playing against a terrible team with a playoff spot sewn up.  No one.

Zach Duke – So this borderline starter didn’t work out quite as well.  You take Zach Duke to the cashier and she rings you up six innings and five earned runs.  That’s the price of playing sucky guys, I guess.

Trevor Cahill – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  And my final borderline starter for yesterday worked out okay as I finally learned to not bet against the A’s.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate hit his 12th homer yesterday in 3/4 of a season.  *sipping tea with my pinkie out, crossing legs*  Do you dare draft The Dread Pirate and Robot Jones on the same fantasy team next year?

Edwin Encarnacion – 2 HRs, but whoa, turkey, guess what else?  He batted third.  Zoinks!

Brian McCann – Left the game with a bruised wrist, which is not nearly as delicious as a braised wrist.

Martin Prado – Now batting near .500 in the last week and the hits just keep coming as he went 2-for-4 yesterday.

Jorge de la Rosa – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER as dlR pitched his worst start since June.  You’re killing me, Smalls!

Carlos Gonzalez – Pulled from the game with a tight hamstring.  Car(No)Go, as it were.

Huston Street – Came on in the 7th.  Yeah, he’s not the closer yet.

Franklin Morales – Got the save as he gave up three inherited runs and one of his own.  So, yeah, Street may be the closer again soon.

Brad Hawpe – Hit a homer yesterday.  If you would’ve told me he retired two months ago, I might’ve believed you.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  If you bet that Rios and Hawpe would hit a homer on the same day, that’s like Powerball money you just won.

John Danks – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Showing de la Rosa two can play the “I Hate My Fantasy Owners Game,” he had his worst start since May.   After the game, Danks tweeted, “I pitched.  #sucky”

Bobby Jenks – Probably done for the year with a calf injury (with his size you’d think they’d call it a cow).  Linebrink would probably step in for any saves.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 38th homer yesterday.  We have a week and a half for Dunn to hit two more homers or the world will explode.

Matt Cain – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now really isn’t the time for that regression that every fantasy baseball ‘pert has been predicting since May.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  According to Cubs fans, without Milton Bradley telling opposing hitters which pitches are coming, the Cubs are unstoppable.

Prince Fielder – Hit his 41st homer yesterday as he tied Pujols for the RBI lead with 129.  Going into the final weekend, if Prince is still neck-and-neck with Pujols, Albert should buy seats for Cecil Fielder right behind the Brewers dugout.  (For those in the back of the room, Cecil and Prince don’t get along.)  Devious Grey out.

Nyjer Morgan was back in the lineup to steal two bases in the first inning, then he left with a broken hand.  Bunt, go feet first and get back in there!  One of my ‘pert teams was pulling too far away in power, so last week I made a trade for steals and saves.  Two categories I usually just play the waiver wire for, but in a 16 team league, it’s slim pickins.  I traded Prince Fielder for Heath Bell and Nyjer Morgan.  Stab me in my eye!  Shove hot coals in my pants!  Hot poker my heart!  I still won’t miss Prince, but Nyjer’s broken hand… Well, I’d like to write on Nyjer’s cast, “Amputate,” as you should be doing with him on your teams.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Hudson – He’ll be returning on Monday to face the Marlins.  The good news, he gets a decent 2 start week next week.  The bad news, he wasn’t exactly lights out in rehab.  The moderate news, he’s worth a flier in 12 team leagues where you need an extra starter.  Just don’t expect him to be anything more than 5 IP, 3 ER.

Ian Kinsler – 2 HRs.  Post-All-Star Break, he’s batting .222 with 8 homers and 6 steals.  It’s going to be hard to justify a 2nd round pick next year for Kinsler with his propensity for bescumbering your fantasy baseball team in the second half of the season.

Chris Davis - HR yesterday.  IDK. W00t? Or BFD U POS?  The preceding was brought to you by your 14-year-old nephew’s texting.

A.J. Burnett – 6 IP, 3 ER, 12 Ks.  12 Ks courtesy of the league’s worst (best?) team for Ks, the Rangers.  After struggling for a few years with injuries, Burnett’s putting together another 30 start season (barring my jinxing right here).  Looking like a solid bet for 175 Ks and a 4.00 ERA next year.  That’s nothing to sneeze at, unless you’re allergic to that sorta thing.

Anibal Sanchez – 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners vs. the Mets.  I tried to push people away from Anibal because of his wont to tie his owners to the WHIPping post.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  I can already see people drafting him next year in mixed leagues and then mid-April being bored with him.  It’s the trouble with 12/12 outfielders.  They look okay on draft day, but when they average 2 homers and 2 steals a month they get real yawnstipating.

Dave Bush – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  Bush has a machine head.  But it’s not better than the rest.

Randy Wells – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners.  To make matters worse, the Cubs should start watching his innings.

Carlos Gonzalez – Was in the lineup, but it was too soon back in the yard and he hurt his knife wound.

Adam LaRoche – HR yesterday.  8 homers and batting .385 in August.  Must be after the All-Star Break.

Andy Marte – HR yesterday.  Deep league alert!  Has an eight game hitting streak with two homers and batting over .400.

Andrew McCutchen – HR yesterday.  Now has 9 homers and 15 steals.  Unbelievably, I’m starting to get excited about a Pirate for next year.  Not just any Pirate, but The Dread Pirate.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones has not only continued to be productive (though admittedly less so than when he was first called up).  He hit his 15th homer yesterday and also has 8 steals.  For under 200 at-bats, that’s tremendous.  I have my doubts about him doing it over a full season.

Junichi Tazawa – 4 IP, 9 ER.  This is the reason I tried to steer people away from Tazawa.  I mean, he has a near 7 ERA on the year and 8 walks to 12 Ks.  Honestly, if it was for the Sons of Sam Horn hype machine, we wouldn’t even be talking about him.  Next year, we’ll reevaluate.

Alex Gonzalez – Has now hit homers in back-to-back games.  He’s a terrible hitter.  Make no mistake.  But hitters hit them in bunches, so he might have some short term value for MI pop.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Left the game with an ankle sprain.  He’s day-to-a-few-days.

Brandon Allen – Hit his first major league homer yesterday.  He’ll be discussed more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  You can’t wait.  No, you can’t!

Matt Holliday – HR yesterday.  If he stays in the NL, it’ll be interesting to see if everyone drafts him next year like the first half of the year was a blip on the radar because of his Oakcation.  The only problem with that, he still only hit 25 homers his last full year in Coors.  Then again, maybe the Mets will get him, then no one will think his power will boon.

Albert Pujols – It’s almost like he owns himself in fantasy baseball.  He goes 0-for-2, but steals a base just to add some value.  This actually wouldn’t be a bad idea.  Part of everyone’s salary goes into a fantasy baseball pool.  The only caveat is they must draft themselves.  Hmm… But maybe that’s gambling.  Nevertheless, I love Pujols.  Well, that sounded wrong.

Before I cover Adam Lind (with words, not a blanket), I want to clear something up about these Thursday keeper posts.  I like Lind, but between him and, say, Hanley, it’s no contest.  I’m talking about potentially marginal keepers here.  Not slam dunks.  I could see some people worrying that Lind may not be able to repeat his 2009 season.  Contraire, Robespierre.  Adam Lind took a while to get going in the majors, but he’s always had this pedigree.  In five seasons of the minors, he had a .380 OBP and a .318 average.  In his fist full season of the majors where he’s actually seemed to be comfortable, he’s headed for a 30/95/.300 season.  Next year, he’ll be 27 and should be able to take a slight step forward.  Think 35/110/.310.  Also, he’s been batting third a lot recently.  If he can get off to a hot start next year like he did this year, he could cement his place in the three hole for the better part of the season, which will help his counting stats.  Have You Lost Your Flippin’ Mind predictions for 2010:  100/35/120/.310.  No steals, which is a shame, and no great shakes on his eligibility, but those numbers aren’t far off from 2nd round-type numbers.  (BTW, you’re reading a fantasy baseball site that alludes to Linda Ronstadt.  Don’t you feel dirty?)  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Aaron Hill – Do I smell a theme? No, that’s lunch.  I mean, the Blue Jays. Ah, yes.  They smell like rotisserie chicken. No, that really is lunch.  Hill will only be 28 at the start of the 2010 season.  As I’ve been saying just about the whole season, I don’t think the 30+ homers this year is a fluke.  At second base, you can do much worse.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate has 15 homer power and 35 steal speed.  Shane Victorino just called and said he wants his stats back.