Last month we went over some pitchers that were getting lucky. You remember back a month ago, right? You were 15 pounds lighter and still had a few hairs to brush over your head. The pitchers that I said would regress last month were Moseley, Ogando, Tomlin, Britton, Correia, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Guthrie, Wolf and Cahill. Their combined ERA in the last month was 4.51. I.e. Not good. To refresh what the FIP I’m talking about. xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first two months or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Josh Beckett – 1.69. I’d love to see Red State Jeter’s regression to his 3.75 xFIP. Biggest reason, cause I don’t own him anywhere. 2nd biggest reason, because he’s helping other teams win. 3rd reason, the first two were already the same, don’t make me come up with a third.
Jair Jurrjens – 1.67. Jar-Jar, any time you wanna cooperate and not be as good as you’ve been, it would be appreciated. Meesa tanks you in advance.
Alexi Ogando – 1.58. I’d feel differently about this post if I owned a few of these guys. Maybe I should ignore LOB%, BABIP, K-rate and xFIP and just ride the hot hand…Then as soon as I pick them up they’ll get shelled.
Jeremy Hellickson – 1.39. He’s kept his BABIP fairly low in the past, but it’s even below that right now. His K-rate is also very low for him (and his ERA which makes me want to kick myself in the head).
Gio Gonzalez – 1.26. There’s a lot of names on this list that I don’t own. Gio’s one I have. Sad emoticon. Right now, I’m only starting him at home because I don’t trust him. He seems to be losing control like Meatloaf working with Gary Busey.
Jered Weaver – 1.14. I wouldn’t panic too much with this one. Weaver’s not a 2.24 ERA pitcher, but he’s not his brother either.
Philip Humber – 1.04. C’mon, a less than 5.50 K-rate? That is the new blech.
Matt Harrison – 1.03. Here comes the runs, and I say… I almost left Harrison off because who’s trusting him? Maybe some people who only see the 3.31 ERA. These are people that probably aren’t reading this site…Never the hoo!
Kyle Lohse – 1.00. Another guy that falls into the Harrison category; you should know he’s not around a mid-2 ERA pitcher. If you don’t, shame on you. But you can put the blame on me…Said you can put the blame on me…