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Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks, Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, Max Scherzer to the Tigers and Austin Jackson to obscurity with a new team.  The Tigers couldn’t wait to move Edwin Jackson.  Why, you may ponder if you ponder things like this.  This is Edwin Jackson of a 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  That’ll put up more red flags than a Commie.  In 2009, he didn’t really pitch as well as his 2.52 ERA indicates.  He had some luck.  He’s probably closer to a 3.50 ERA pitcher in the first half.  In 2008, Jackson’s first half ERA was 3.93 and 5.16.   Maybe he’s just a 1st half pitcher.  My advice was going to be to ignore Jackson in 2010 fantasy baseball, but now that he’s in the desert and, more importantly, the NL, he’ll have some 4th fantasy starter appeal.  I’d definitely take a flier later on with him, but be ready to move him as the calender strikes July.  Anyway, there’s all kinds of fantasy baseball implications to this trade, let’s look at some other guys:

Curtis Granderson – Granderson hit 30 homers in Comerica.  Now he gets to play in The Stadium Adjacent To The Stadium That Ruth Built.  Or less succinctly, The Stadium That Even Johnny Damon Can Hit 25 Homers In.  I wouldn’t be turned off by Grandy’s 2009 .249 average.  A) He had some bad luck; the average should’ve been higher.  B) He’ll be hitting in a better lineup. C) There is no C.  Granderson may not have been a solid number two fantasy outfielder before the trade, but he is after it.  If he hits 35 homers in that Little League park and steals 20 bases, which he’s capable of, he’ll be a number one outfielder.  Believe the hype, Chuck D.

Ian Kennedy – He should compete for a rotation spot with the D-Backs.  I think he’ll probably have more value than Edwin Jackson when all is said and done, but he’ll need a rotation spot out of Spring Training to have value for 2010 fantasy baseball.  He’ll be a late round flier if he does get the spot and can out produce that.

Austin Jackson – His value goes sideways.  Or East to West, for literalists.

Max Scherzer – Because of the jump in innings from 2008 to 2009, I was already going to preach caution for Scherzer.  Now, I’d avoid him.

Phil Coke – Leaving the Yankees.  For you casual fans, Phil Coke was not a nickname for Steve Howe.

From Around The Web

  1. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Tiger fan here. Someone please kill me!

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: I can understand your frustration. Scherzer is probably going to have a tough 2010 then he might bounce back to be a solid number 3. I think the Tigers definitely got the short end of the stick, but Austin is a wild card.

  3. Russ says:
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    And the rich get richer!

    where does Damon end up?

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Russ: Yeah, they do. Short term rich though, which has gotten the rich in trouble before. No idea where Damon goes.

  5. Russ says:
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    assuming damon leaves, does granderson bat 2nd and they leave jeter in leadoff?

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Russ: That’s my assumption on how it’ll play out.

  7. royce! says:
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    Everyone got chump dumped except the Yankees! Did all the other teams in the league feel bad for having received so much in revenue sharing money that they decided to give the Yankees an early Christmas gift?

    I really like Granderson, so it’s going to be hard to root against him. But hating on the Yankees is 99% of baseball, so I’ll get by.

  8. matthole says:
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    why do you think the dbacks made that trade?

  9. brett says:
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    I wouldn’t even say short term rich. Granderson has a team friendly deal through 2013.

    Although, as a Tigers fan, i’m not entirely opposed to this deal. As long as Scherzer stays healthy, they’re building one of the best young, cost controlled rotations in baseball. AND they managed to cut payroll and fill two holes in the bullpen. I just hope Sizemore can hold a candle to Polanco’s defense to help these guys. God knows their outfield won’t.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Ha!

    @matthole: Edwin was a top prospect for a few years. He could have a better career than Scherzer.

    @brett: Good point on short term, but if Austin Jackson ever materializes it might be seen as a short term move. Austin really needs to do something. We’lll see on him. Yeah, they take a hit on defense. Scherzer and Edwin are nearly a wash. Just don’t like the innings bump on Scherzer from last year.

  11. peter says:
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    @Grey: Granderson takes over 2nd spot in the order… Did the Yanks also get a box of Jim Leyland’s whiteout in the deal?

  12. peter says:
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    Also, breaking: Peter Gammons is leaving ESPN.

  13. Antrim Warriors says:
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    finally, some action!

  14. Antrim Warriors says:
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    or shall i say, action other than Tiger!

  15. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    I’m pissed that the Cubs didn’t nab Granderson.

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @peter: re: whiteout — Ha!

    @peter: re: Gammons — Wow! Really? Where’s he going?

    @Antrim Warriors: Alt. Title — Another Tiger Gets Action

  17. Antrim Warriors says:
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    @Grey: oh, too good!

  18. Antrim Warriors says:
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    I bet the Sox end up with Damon and his old tired injured ass.

  19. GopherDay says:
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    It’ll be hard not to draft Grandy this year. Do you think the move to Yankee “Little League Park” Stadium will boost his ADP much?

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Antrim Warriors: Might be.

    @peter: Who’s going to tout Casey Kotchman now? Who’s going to play guitar at the ESPN Christmas party? So many unanswered questions.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Yeah, he’ll probably shoot up the rankings. Won’t make it out of the 4th round is my guess.

  22. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Will Grandy still be playing center or if the Yanks don’t get Holliday or Bay, will they shift him over to Left?

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: I’d think he’d play center.

  24. sean says:
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    Granderson was a guy I was targeting before this trade. Even with the new hype sure to come, if he can get close to his 2007 numbers, he could be Matt Kemp in the third round.

    He’s probably more of a 100/30/80/20/.270, but that looks a lot like the Carlos Beltran I was hoping to get in the second round last year with a little less in terms of average.

    One thing that concerns me is that Grandy is horrendous against LHP and tNYS seems to be a place where most teams want to pitch their lefties. It could be a situation where he bats first or second against righties and seventh or eighth against righties.

  25. sean says:
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    edit: second righties should read lefties

  26. sean says:
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    interesting bit on Tejada on hot stove blog: Astros told him he’d had to have a large pay cut and play third base if he was going to return for a third season in Houston. That return now seems very unlikely.

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Yeah, I could see him dropping in the order vs. lefties, but I don’t think it’s going to play into his overall numbers enough to worry. He may be tough to own some weeks in H2H leagues.

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: re: Tejada — Yeah, he doesn’t excite me much wherever he’s playing.

  29. Brian Lynch says:
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    Grandy was not quite a solid #2 but will be a solid #1 with 5 more homers? Is that just because you think his avg will go way up?

  30. tony says:
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    @peter: thank god gammons is leaving he can’t remember what he’s saying from thought to thought….

    And without gammons who will predict my tribe to win the world series? oh wait thats when they had CC and Cliff Lee, my bad.

    @Grey: Grandy in NY is huge. He’ll be going 3rd round in most drafts I would assume. 1) because of the ballpark 2) because he’s now a YANKEE and all the yankee lovers will be all over him. 3) because hitting behind jeter and in front of arod and tex is going to be ridiculous….

    I’m sick (puke)

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian Lynch: Average is a fickle mistress, but it should go up to the .275 range. He’ll also be in a better lineup helping his Runs and RBIs.

    @tony: Yeah, 2 is true.

  32. GopherDay says:
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    @tony: Breathe in, breathe out, breathe in, breathe out.

    My friend told me the other day that he will be all over Grandy cuz he’ll be underated. Not any more!

  33. tony says:
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    Looking at MDC’s ADP so far there are some major wrongs. Grey we were going back and forth earlier about Stewart, and I just think the ADP’s are horrible right now messing up where guys are going.

    TEX 6
    vmart 23
    votto 26
    justin upton 32?
    roy halladay at 42 but CC at 25
    Markakis 45 (bleh)
    Granderson 60 (not that its outta line, but that will be changing)
    Cruz 73?
    Eithier 78?
    Quentin 97?

    I dont know some of these seem low and some seem wayyyy high. Basically alot of drafts the computers are selecting these guys and the ADP is staying where its been. Some of those ranks HAVE to change.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tony: MDC still has Roger Clemens listed under SPs, so it’s fair to say I’d take their ADPs with a grain of salt.

  35. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Beware the small sample sizse!

  36. Steve says:
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    size!

  37. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Grandy’s career numbers vs. AL Central and AL East (w/o NYY):

    Central: .262/.329/.456, 44 HR, 29 SB in 304 games
    East: .266/.332/.470, 17 HR, 10 SB in 113 games

    Home(det): .261/.325/.451, 43 HR, 29 SB in 334 games

  38. Big Mike says:
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    @ Grey: good point on MDC ADP’s. Got a recommendation for an aother source?

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Mike: Honestly, I just look at my rankings and then draft guys I want when I want them. It’s still real early though so I’m sure MDC will get a bit better/more accurate.

  40. Steve says:
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    @Big Mike: @Grey: I’m thinking that given it’s December, any site’s ADPs will be up the whoop. Couchmanagers’ certainly are.
    Once a few realistic rankings start comig out and people start darfting accordingly, the ADPs should normalise a bit.

  41. Big Mike says:
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    @Steve: @Grey: I use ADP to look for bargains. Why, for instance, is Nick Swisher at #300+?

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Mike: I don’t think people realize Swisher can hit 30 homers in that stadium with his eyes closed.

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Mike: Also, unlike any other stat, people really seem preoccupied with average.

  44. Big Mike says:
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    @Grey: and I’m in an OBP league (no Avg). Does that totally skew the ADP’s for my purposes or give me an advantage?

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Mike: It makes guys like Swisher way more valuable, and give you an edge if your leaguemates use rankings that consider AVG.

  46. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Similar situation with some of the closers in our Couchmanagers mocks. If they’re a closer, they’re getting Saves and should be valued accordingly – they shouldn’t be ranked in the 350s in a 12-teamer.

  47. Big Mike says:
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    @Grey: the converse of Swisher in my league is, say, Jose Lopez?

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, SAGNOF! No closers should be ranked that low. If the guy is the de facto closer, he should be drafted no later than around 220.

  49. sean says:
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    I think the most difficult decisions that I will be faced with on draft day this year will involve what to do with quality pitchers that have fallen in the draft. Outside of Lincecum, I don’t think any pitchers will be selected in the first two rounds.

    I know that we like to zig when others zag (or is it zag when others zig) as Razzballers, but should I really be the one selecting a quality pitcher that others have passed on just to be the value police?

    On top of that, it seems very difficult to predict a value for guys with limited track records of excellence (Greinke, F-Her, Wainwright, Ubaldo, Josh Johnson), guys with supreme talent and/or peripherals who are plagued by inconsistency (Verlander, Nolasco, Joba(cum)) and guys who are either oft-injured or are entering the twilight of their careers (Johan, Carpenter, Peavy, Halladay). Maybe it’s because so many of our competitors also avoid SP early..

  50. Steve says:
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    @Big Mike: @Grey: It’s just a theory and I could be wrong on this, but I think the whole ADP thing can be a bit self-fulfilling.
    That is, (insert mock draft site here) ranks players for 2010 and the less-discerning (ie non-Razzball readers) tend to draft fairly closely from those rankings. The results of those mock drafts of course go towards generating the ADPs on that site.
    Throw in the fact that at this time of the year, the sample size is pretty small and the numvber of teams being drafted by the computer (from the site rankings which are lame in the first place) and you can get some pretty strange ADP outcomes.
    Did that make any sense?

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: There were 12 starters taken in the first 6 rounds of the mock draft I did yesterday, so I don’t think you’re going to have to worry about policing. I’ve even found myself drafting Johan in three consecutive mock drafts because he was sitting there in the 5th round.

    @Steve: It made sense and I agree more or less. When rankings come out and people start mocking more seriously, it’ll change the face of things somewhat. Will Swisher jump to 150th, where he probably could be drafted? No, but he’ll probably move up to early 200s.

  52. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah – at this time of the year, a player’s ADPs can be artificially low because it simply didn’t occur to people to draft him – nothing to do with what he can do for your team.

    It’s like “oh look, there’s Swisher. I totally forgot about him.”

  53. Big Mike says:
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    @Steve: It does make some sense. That’s why I also look at the default ranking for the site (Yahoo) in the spring. People also tend to follow that listing.

    @Grey: I’m capturing snapshots of ADP reports so I can see if players (Swish et.al.) move substantially. I do know that the mock draft pace has picked up … more teams drafted by real people.

  54. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, and I even drafted there with Geoff Stein, the owner of the site, and he said some people are buried for no good reason other than they’re buried.

  55. tony says:
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    @Grey: haha sparked some ADP talk here i see…. alot of its off because the players were arranged in whatever order to start with and people basically scroll down the next 10-15 guys and pick someone, then some of the mocks aren’t full…. does MDC disregard these early mocks once the real “mock” season gets going full swing?

    kinda dumb if these early NOT FULL mocks are swaying the ADP

  56. Steve says:
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    @Grey: JP Howell at #556 at Couchmanagers. Undrafted. Another case in point.

    Which I’m labouring, so I’ll stop now.

  57. Big Mike says:
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    @Tony: MDC says they exclude the “AI” teams. (AI = artificial intelligence)

    @Steve: you’re right. We’re both belabouring the point. NEXT!

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tony: I don’t know how they handle it. I’d assume there’s so many more new drafts that they just dilute the wonky early ADPs.

    @Steve: Right, but Howell’s one of those guys that isn’t a de facto closer. The Rays won’t decide on a closer until spring training or trade for someone.

  59. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Quite. Will your rankings for next year start coming out at a similar time as this year’s? January or thereabouts?

  60. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I’m 75% done with them. I’ll start posting them in January.

  61. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Sweet!

  62. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    gammons to the mlb network
    after the winter meetings .

    i look forward to it .

  63. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: They have a shortage of Red Sox homers on that channel? I keed. Yeah, that’s a coup for them.

  64. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You like him, Grey? Is he a much of a homer as some say?

    I kind of like his old-school-ness.

    Maybe cos I’m old.

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Nah, I was joking. He’s tremendous. He’s one of the last remaining true legends in sports writing.

  66. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    i am hoping that schwartz and siano
    will get more air time on the mlb network , this year .

    last year , the network showed a beginning interest
    in fantasy baseball .

  67. Steve says:
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    @Grey: How about the others on ESPN? Olney seems OK, although Kurkijan I’ve always found vaguely annoying. Can’t pinpoint why, though.

    Haven’t read much of their stuff and really only get them in short bursts on Sportscenter.

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: For some reason MLB hasn’t embraced fantasy like they should. Maybe still bitter their stats are all over the place.

    @Steve: Kurkijan voice cracks like he’s 12, Olney and Neyer are great, writing wise.

  69. Stephen says:
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    @Steve: @Grey: I have to agree that Kurkjan’s voice cracks all the time, but his typically jovial behavior makes up for John Kurk’s general pessimism. I hate hearing Olney report anything and love reading comments on Neyer’s articles. I honestly think Kurkjan can sufficiently replace some of Gammons insights.

  70. eltoo says:
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    @Steve you probably dislike Kurkijan because he comes up with the most obscure and ridiculous stats, like a players past performance on Friday the 13th that coincided with a blue moon during a leap year.

    When I heard about Gammons my 1st reaction was that he was hanging it up with his recent health issues, good to see he is sticking around. As a Boston resident I always feel like he kind of puts me in my place and keeps a realistic perspective.

    @Grey In reference to the earlier post, what is it about Tillman that you like him as a future number 1 versus Matusz as a future #2? I had both in my keeper league, but only retained Matusz.

  71. Steve says:
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    @eltoo: You might be on to something there. There are so many stats that ESPN can choose from, yet they so often go for the ones that are the least useful or predictive.

    I’m starting to sound like a stat-head now – which I’m not – so time for me to stop again.

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @eltoo: Slightly better development, velocity, younger, slightly higher ceiling for Tillman. Tillman’s prone to the homer, but Matusz doesn’t look as dominating yet. Yet is key because he’s still developing. Was more of a gut call from scouting reports I read on why I said Tillman over Matusz. If I Matusz went Triple-A and dominated, I might have changed my mind. Loved Tillman’s K-rate in the minors. Not that Matusz’s was bad. Can’t really go wrong with either.

  73. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: @sean: Sean accurately pointed out Grandy’s “horrendous” performance against lefties.

    vs. right: .275/.358/.539
    vs. left: .183/.245/.239

    I am less concerned about where he might bat in the order, but whether or not he might sit entirely against lefties. Certainly, the likelihood would be high if the manager were La Russa or Scioscia.

    Swisher, Cabrerra, Gardner all decidedly better against lefties.

    Chances that Girardi would sit him?

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Simply Fred: He won’t sit to make a noticeably difference in his stats.

  75. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: What do you think of Ricky Romero for next year?

  76. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Looking at a guy with solid Ks and some command issues at times. If he can continue to harness his control, he could have a terrific season. As it is, it should be decent. Think 4.00 ERA, 1.40, 160 Ks in 190 innings. A.J. Burnett with slightly less Ks is his upside.

  77. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: I just remember last year that everyone was comparing him to Johan, so what do you think his ADP will be?

  78. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Early 200s. You’ll be able to have him in just about any league you want.

  79. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: So would you suggest drafting him that late for his upside?

  80. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Depends who you’re looking at instead. Potentially. Rather go with a National League pitcher that late.

  81. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, it would be nice if the Jays traded him to the NL. But alas, that most likely won’t happen.

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