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So we come to another week of debauchery known as bullpendom.  Yeah, I like to make up words; Dr. Seuss did it and he is considered a genius, me will settle for 700 on my SAT’s and just scraping by.  What can I say –  I’m a settler minus the funny hat and the flashy yet obnoxious buckle on my shoes. The Red Sox seem to be leading the pack of news this week with Joel Hanrahan being pipped by Andrew Bailey.  It’s going to be a non-fluid situation when Joe-L returns as I see him setting up and waiting for Bailey to go on the rocks. It’s not a bad thing to have if you’re in Boston; 2 closers that have the ability to close out games with some sort of success, for fantasy baseball it sucks worse then burning your toaster strudel cause it gets stuck in the toaster.  Best part is there is still some of that glaze that you can just free base as a non-essential part of your daily vitamin allowance. Lots more in this week’s episode of bullpen report so keep on reading and click that red button, or gray button for our color impaired people.

Greg Holland - Seems to have gotten over his early season stumble and has cemented himself in the prominent role with the Royals.  Or until he sucks again or Kelvin drinks Joboo’s rum.

Bruce Rondon – Was recalled by los Tigres to fill in for the injured wing of Octavio Dotel.  Won’t see anything close to a save unless the game is called after 7 innings and he was the pitcher of record.  Deeper leagues can speculate, but it is prolly a place holder for a stream pitcher anyways.  Plus the return of Jose Valverde just adds to the confusion.

Carlos Marmol – Since being demoted from the closer role he has pitched 8 innings, given up 3 hits, 6 walks and 8 K’s.  The key is zero runs allowed – the showcase is coming so get ready for the coaster ride again.  Kevin Gregg looks good in glasses, and that’s about all.

Ryan Madson – Has elbow problems, this isn’t really news but he is up again, down again on the anticipation scale.  Facing batters is the next step, not being sore and achy is the next step after that.  The next step after that is I believe a slide to the left, but my electric slide is a little rusty.

John Axford – Maybe he is a better suited for a set-up role.  Side note: I think he gets the job back at some point in the next month, but since being demoted he has 5 1/3 innings of scoreless ball with 6 K’s and 4 Holds. So some tinkering is obviously working.  Monitor closely, but don’t sit so close to the tv.  Mom gets mad.

Junichi Tazawa – Is making a name for himself because I don’t know anyone else named Junichi, and it sounds like a chef’s special sushi roll.  He is seeing lots of late inning chances for holds and the Red Sox pen is looking pretty, pretty good.

I made up a fun chart of some of the better options for Holds.  This is an active chart that I keep for giggles for myself, because it shows effectiveness and use by teams.  I did edit it down to an excerpt of the better guys, so ask away for others in the list or be proactive and look up the stats for yourself, either way we cool. I like to use the Appearances with the lead and Inherited runs scored threads to view effectiveness or lack there of.

PLAYER HOLDS Appearances
With Lead
Inherited
Runners
Inherited
Runners Scored
MarK Melancon 7 9 0 0
Matt Belisle 5 7 6 1
Kenley Jansen 5 6 0 0
Eric O’Flaherty 6 7 1 0
Trevor Rosenthal 5 9 0 0
Junichi Tazawa 5 6 3 0
 Koji Uehara  5  6  7 2
 David Hernandez  5  7  1 0
 Vinnie Pestano  4  5  0 0
 Tony Watson  5  7  5 0
 Tyler Clippard  3  7  1  0
 Brad Ziegler  4  6  12 2
 Wilton Lopez  3  7 3  3
 Jake McGee  3  6  4 2
 James Russell  3 6  6  1
 Darren O’Day  4  6  4  0
 Matt Thornton  4  5  4 1
 Joel Peralta  3  6  0 0
 Kelvin Herrerra  3  6 3 2
 Aaron Crow  4  5  3 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. costaricanchata says:
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    those 700 SAT scores … was that before or after they adjusted the tests to eliminate racial bias ?

    what ?
    did the ebonics experiment get derailed ??

    as you can tell , i’ve been out of that loop for a while .

  2. Smokey

    Great stuff.

    In a deep, 14 team, redraft 6×6 w/ holds league — both Mitchell Boggs and Sean Marshall are available. Which do you prefer?

    thx

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @EL Burro: I’d prolly take a shot at Boggs easing Ito that setup role with no pressure. Marshall’s injury is worrisome.

  3. coco krispie says:
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    5×5 obp replaces avg, which side

    Tulo, Choo, Aoki or Braun, Rollins, Werth

    • Ben says:
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      @coco krispie: random vote for tulo side.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @coco krispie: it’s close. I’ll bet on Tulo having a good medium section of the season.

  4. T-ball hero says:
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    So when Bailey gets hurt, does Hanranahahahan get the gig back or do they look to Tazawa? I could use me some closer and Tazawa appears a) available and b) awesome.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @T-ball hero: in that scenario Joe-l would get first chance.

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      @T-ball hero:

      I think Bailey is going to be lights out all year. Hanrahan will end up with almost no value.

      • Smokey

        Smokey says:
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        @OaktownSteve: While I agree I think Bailey is a better option for the Sawx right now the lack of him not being an injury risk is troubling. He has only appeared in more than 50 games in a season once in his career, and hasn’t gone over 50 innings since 2009.

  5. BrittanyMurphyWormFood says:
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    Love the holds chart, please keep it going.

  6. Greg says:
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    Doesn’t seem like any confusion in Detroit – Valverde is the closer and I’d doubt Rondon can even be considered #2 at this point. Maybe if he’s light’s out for a couple months…

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Greg: Yet wait till Papa nachos grande melts

  7. Ben says:
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    That chart makes me sad I sat on Melancon so long and another team scooped him up. I should look at Doolittle’s usage the way you did. His projections are excellent so im using him in my one non closer RP slot, but he isnt getting opportunities yet. I hate to drop him for a lesser pitcher now though.

    You may remember me as the guy obsessed with pitchers with SP eligibility that are getting holds. So far so good with Matusz. Nada with Hector Rondon. The new rondon doesnt have SP.

    You still thinking Hector is worth hanging onto? Joe Kelly in STL seems like a decent option. ESPN says they want to find him a consistent role in the bullpen as of Apr 22. Since then? 2 appearances, 2 holds.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ben: Doolittle is in that secondary or third setup position which is usually the guy who comes on when tied or losing by one or two. RondOn usage has slipped some. He was effective for 2 weeks. I like Joe Kelly, think he could be the first guy traded by the cards with a minor leaguer to bolster whatever they may need.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Smokey:

        For what it’s worth, Doolittle has been getting the 8th as the bridge to Balfour though there haven’t been a lot of clean save ops for the A’s lately.

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @OaktownSteve: The good stat I like about Doolittle is his team is 7-1 when he pitches. So there is that.

  8. Jeff says:
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    Huston Street is scaring me.

    Any scouting reports?

    Should I be trading him while he still has value or is it an early season SSS blip?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Jeff: it’s early yet but his velocity is down slightly and his gb/ fb rate is really screwy right now. Way off his career norms. He is also being hittable wild, if that makes sense. He is basically out of the strike zone but batters are hitting him.

  9. jro says:
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    Watch close, or make move now and add Kenley, or street for Henderson.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @jro: while Henderson is closing now it won’t be for much longer I believe, but could return to it again if Axford sux. I mean saves and chasing saves are the name of the game and Leagur gave up another run today so Jansen is going to get a lot of hype now. Street is struggling and has way off career numbers right now. I would hold for another week then reassess.

  10. ChrisH says:
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    Straight up closer trade. Which side would you be on.

    Balfour — Parnell

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @ChrisH: Balfour

  11. Gareth says:
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    Hey Smokey,

    Someone just dropped Greg Holland in my league. Bobby Parnell is also a free Agent.
    Drop any of my current closers – League, Street, Frieri, Betancourt – for these guys?

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Gareth: must be a smaller league, I can see owning Holland over Street right now.

  12. OaktownSteve says:
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    You know who I kind of like as a sneaky holds guy? Hector Ambriz. He’s given up 5 runs in 12.1 innings this year but 4 of them were in one outing. He looks like the clear 8th inning choice right now. I’ve seen him pitch a couple of times and I like the pitch mix. Fastball is not overpowering but has good sink. The slider is a good second pitch with some bite and he mixes in a change of pace curve. Historically he’s been wild but currently sporting a 1.46 BB/9 rate which is excellent.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @OaktownSteve: I tend to shy away from guys with Hold capabilities on losing teams or teams that struggle to put multiple wins in a week together. The only thing that doesnt wow me about Hector is is K rate is meh, but he has a good mix of pitchrepetoire and on a better team could be a viable option, but when your basically going to get 1 hold every 10 days its kind of deflating to roster.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Smokey:

        I know what you’re saying. The same argument has been made about closers but even the worst team is going to win 60 games. And the Astros don’t even look like the worst team out there. You got Camp on your list and the Cubs are terrible.

        Last year Gregerson, Belisle, Grilli, Pestano, were all among the holds leaders playing for poor teams. If a league is deep enough you want a guy who has that 8th inning locked up just like every closer should be owned regardless of how bad the team is.

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @OaktownSteve: Oh absolutely I couldn’t agree more. Well they are on pace to win 54 right now. If a reliever on a bad team has superlative numbers like the guys you listed, with years of success than that makes them more attractive. Ambriz only has 5 k/9, and that is just below league average for a reliever. League size would definitely affect the owning of guys like Ambriz and he is someone that I have noticed and will be added to the Houston list next week for the ranking section of the closer report.

  13. So CG says:
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    Great stuff! That chart helped a lot- teacher tells me I’m a visual learner.

    I’m in a H2H league that has the “Saves + Holds” stat. Do you like Melancon more than Broxton or Parnell?

    Thanks.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @So CG: YW, on par with both those guys.

  14. Ben says:
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    @Smokey, Thanks for your help in the other post. Insightful response.

    Drop Doolittle for

    Crain, Watson, Downs (trying to pick the most attractive guys left..hard to list them all, so many potential ‘sleepers’ here)

    or Doonothing.

    Did you make that chart manually or are you calculating those things? I was thinking it’d be cool to write a scrip to calculate this sort of thing to keep track of hold candidates on a regular basis (maybe add somethin to highlight the SP guys, lol).

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ben: My pleasure anytime. I would hold go for Watson of guys listed.

      I picked and chose key relief stats, and I made it all myself. I’m working on a calculation for relief pitchers but need more stats to back it up so stay tuned.

  15. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    great work thank you

  16. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    two snappers for smokey…that is all

  17. Hal Incandenza says:
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    Drop Cishek or Kelvim Herrera? I own G.Holland so there’s a handcuff element in Herrera.

  18. Ron says:
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    I need some help here. This is the list of pitchers I have:
    Verlander, Dickey, Sherzer, Moore, A. Sanchez, Bailey, Iwakuma, Quintana, Villanueva, Garza(DL)

    Beachy(DL) is available on the wire.

    Should I drop one of these pitchers for Beachy?

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Ron: garza

  19. Matt says:
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    What is your avatar?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Matt: ashy larry

  20. Steve says:
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    What are the chances Kenley goes for the third day in a row?

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