Fantasy Baseball Advice

Roy Oswalt pulled something in his back and is presumably headed to the DL.  The bad news here is he was supposedly a 2nd half pitcher in some people’s minds, though my mind wasn’t yet made up.  It’s a guy’s prerogative to change his mind, or just not make it up at all.  As someone who has struggled with lower back pain for most of his adult life… Oh, who am I kidding?  I’m fit as a fiddle.  I once dwarf bowled a 170.  (Of course, he helped by kicking over that 7-10 split.)  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah!  Oswalt.  Yeah, he’s off to see a back specialist, the Astros are calling up Bud Norris, hopefully related to Chuck.  Bud Norris might sound familiar to some of youse.  Why?  Cause I just said his name in the previous sentence.  Hello, Mr. Short-Term Memory.  He also may sound familiar to you because he was in last week’s Scouting the Unknown.  For those too lazy to click-through, his walk rate isn’t pretty.  I’d grab him in NL-Only leagues and take a flier on him in 12 team and deeper mixed leagues if you really need the help, but he may cause migraines.  Best case scenario is he foolz (the kids love the Z) some hitters for about a month worth of starts and racks up the strikeouts while barely making it out of the 5th inning because of a high pitch count, see also Clay/ton Buchh/shaw.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

LaTroy Hawkins – His MRI came back negative on his back so he’s heading to the DL with shingles.  Whaaat?!?  Don’t you need to check off a few things before going from an MRI to shingles?  It’s not a bulging disk… Okay, let’s check for shingles.

Randy Johnson – Torn rotator cuff.  Just be glad I didn’t go with the title, Torn Johnson.

Clay Buchholz – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners and tied me to the WHIPping post.  The home plate ump looked like he wouldn’t call a strike.  Put Fieldin Culbreth behind home; he’ll call a strike.  Just be glad Buchholz got out of the 5th.  Against the A’s no less.  Not a great sign.  Go after a hitter.  Pitch to contact.  Trust your stuff.  Listen to Eck, would ya?

Scott Kazmir – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Sonavabench!  I fully expect him to go out and get rocked in his next game when I start him.  Kazmir, why do you hate me?

Fred Lewis – Took a real long time, but you know who’s finally hot?  Fred Lewis.  Maybe he finally figured out why I called him a sleeper in February.

Eugenio Velez – Hit a homer yesterday.  In other news, water’s dry.

CC Sabathia/Chad Billingsley – Belch.

Tommy Everidge – Was called up to replace Barton.  His minor league numbers look promising, but he’s not available anywhere until ESPN, Y! or CBS put him into their systems.  Though he’s not really worth a pickup yet, except in AL-Only leagues.

George Sherrill – People really seem to want him and it makes sense for the Orioles to trade him away if they can get anything.  As said elsewhere by me, you don’t need a closer to finish last.  The catch, and there’s always one, Baez and Johnson haven’t looked good at all recently.  It may come down to *cover your children’s eyes if they’re reading this* a committee.  I know!  Terrible.

Matt Wieters – 4-for-5, but what about Gregg Zaun?!

Kevin Correia – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks, 8 baserunners.  Perfectly acceptable game for a HodgePadre in an away game.  Unfortunately, I refuse to start him anywhere but home…

Heath Bell – Another guy that seems like he might be on the move.  And another situation that isn’t crystal clear.  Mujica’s held the 8th for the majority of the season, but he’s faltered recently.  Gregerson’s been fine, but he’s Luke Gregerson.  Mike Adams has been terrific too.  But he’s not even Luke Gregerson.  I’d hold Mujica or Gregerson, in that order.

Everth Cabrera – 3-for-4, 2 steals.  I loved EverCab when he first came up, then he did nothing for two weeks.  So I dropped him and then he did this to me (6 steals in the last week).  Yesterday in the comments, this was said by frequent commenter, Tom, “Hey remember that time you got back from church camp and destroyed all of your rebellious, edgy EverCab albums?  And remember that time 3 weeks later when you stopped dating that girl from camp, and you were really pissed that you threw them out?  Today is that day.”

Rafael Soriano – Has now given up runs in two of his last three games.  If you take nothing else away from today’s roundup, Soriano goes through stretches where he’s terrible.  You’ve been warned.

Leo Nunez – Gave up a run, Lindstrom’s due back in a week.  You’ve been warned.  Again.

Nyjer Morgan – Since I already pointed out my goof on EverCab, I’ll cop to this one too.  I bungled Nyjer.  He’s been a very decent SAGNOF source.  I even tried to trade for him in one league.  I think I was ignored.  Hey, don’t take my Garrett Jones.  It’s fine by me (please stay hot Jones, please).

Elvis Andrus – HR and steal yesterday.  No lie, in one league I literally dropped him two days ago.  Momma said there would be days like these…

Clete Thomas – I picked him up and he went 0-for-4.  I grabbed him because he’s batting third for the Tigers.  Why’s he batting third?  I don’t know.  Buy Leyland a pack of Marlboro Reds and maybe he’ll tell you.

Jhonny Peralta – This year he’s carrying the Silent H Torch for him and Khalil, and has three straight games with a homer as he bats over .400 in the last 7 games.

Scott Downs – 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  People were yelling fire in the comments yesterday that Frasor’s due to take over, they might be right.  Downs has given up runs in four of his last five games.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Downs hit the Disgraceful List.

Chien-Ming Wang – Visited Dr. Freeze and was put on ice for the season.  Imagine Dr. Andrews misunderstood, “Something’s wrong with Wang,” as something was wrong with his wang.  Ah, the yucks a bad Farrelly brothers movie could have with that.

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 2 ER, Save.  He’s really got the save down pat where he gives up 2 runs.  It’ll be funny in the playoffs when he loses a key game and McCarver’s like, “He’s usually so reliable.”  Joe Buck *interminable pause* then, “We’ll be back here tomorrow for game five.”

Dan Haren – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners.  Now has two straight so-so starts by his 1st half of starts’ standards.  Honestly, I was pretty happy with this so-so start.  He gets the Mets in Metco next, so hopefully he can be decently so-so again.

Adam Dunn – Hit a homer out of Miller Park.  Then had his blue ox run the bases.

Mark Buehrle – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Back to life… Back to reality… and Johnny Vander Meer’s family is once again free to make plans.

Josh Fields – Being dropped from the roster for Mark Kotsay.  Fields wants a trade from the White Sox.  Maybe if you robbed a homer to seal a perfect game, you wouldn’t be getting dropped.  Think about that!

Mark Kotsay – Traded to the White Sox for Brian Anderson.  What’s the point of this trade?  Did Kenny Williams get a look at Kotsay’s wife?  This is the most irrelevant trade since Jose Lima was traded to the Kia Tigers for a bottle of kimchi.

Armed with the knowledge that Our Greyness is not infallible (Grey’s ‘Pertise), I was determined to prove that the computer could, well, out-predict him.  After all, the man makes split-second calls on “please put these in order,” “who is best for the rest of the year?”, “in a twelve-team, keeper, with SLG and OBP in place of AVG and HR, place in order …,” and, simply, “of these pitchers who should I start/sit tomorrow?” Surely, given all of the data available and the crunching ability of The Whopper, the machine could out-perform him on, say, at least the “who should start/sit tomorrow issue.” Without a doubt. It would just take time and patience. That I had.

Step one: Go to The Master himself.  “Grey, what factors do you consider in deciding who to start/sit?”
Answer: “Last few starts, match up history, ballpark… Opposing pitcher doesn’t matter usually.”

Sounds good. Now I know he has a pretty good memory for all of that stuff, but he can’t possibly be as good as having every bit of detail categorized and calculated. I embarked on, what would turn out to be, roughly 40 hours of data gathering and model building.

The goal was to predict where a pitcher’s performance from his next start would place him in a 12X12 RCL league. This would give us a relative number to use in deciding who to start/sit.

Key factors were:
1. The last two starts (home or away, depending on the upcoming  start).
2. Overall Home, or Overall Away, for the 2009 season.
3. Heads up (regardless of home or away) for 2009.
4. Historical match ups: specifically home, or away, for 08/07.
5. Ballpark: per team (not park) from 2009 data. I.e. If a pitcher’s last two starts were against light-hitting teams SF and SD, the computer would adjust the K/9, ERA, and WHIP from those games to account for the next start, say, a heavy-hitting Texas. It would project a comparatively less expected pitcher-performance.

The test set of data for model-building was from all RCL pitchers for the week of July 16-20, immediately following the All-Star break.

Finally, the model was adjusted to “weight” factors according to their value in predicting the results. In this, the computer got to “cheat.” It actually knew the outcomes and was solving to meet those. Grey went in blind.

When the model completed its work, it had projected K/9, ERA, and WHIP, 12X12 rankings for each, as well as an overall projected RCL rank for the projected performance.

All that was left was to prove that Grey’s split-second calls couldn’t come close to matching the 40 hours of work and number-crunching ability of the computer. Trust me, the computer and I are darn good at number crunching.

This was going to be the equivalent of: “With a dramatic victory in Game 6, Deep Blue won its six-game rematch with (chess) Champion Garry Kasparov.”

“Grey hits the Disgraceful List when the Fumethrower falls to Deep Fred.”

I culled twenty (repeats were not counted) start/sit questions that were put to Grey for the test week. Here are the results: (If one side came out ahead, it got the count.)

Grey: 7*
The Model: 4
Matching: 9

(*This includes 3 for newer pitchers where the model did not have enough info to project; advantage Grey)

The model is good. When/if Grey isn’t available, I will use it.

Now, some of you may be making similar calculations, but I would wager none as much as the computer crunched. Still, Grey was clearly superior. Obviously, there are other factors that Grey weighs subjectively when he makes a call. It might be possible to compile an even more sophisticated model, but there would be no guarantee, the work would be overwhelming considering the benefit, and, who needs it—we can just post the question, and count on the answer. I know he won’t nail every one, but I am also confident that there is no living human being on the face of the planet that can match him.

I would love to see a competition amongst leading pundits, all given the same set of questions, and then measured against results.

Folks, all of this energy and calculating was for just the simple, “who to start/sit.” It doesn’t even begin to tackle the larger issues that Grey deals with.

“Grey Topples Deep Fred”

Ryan Garko was traded to the Aints for Scott Barnes, no relation to Priscilla.  Not sure why the Indians traded a cheap guy with 11 homers and a .285/.362/.464 line.  Maybe the Giants offered some trinkets to the Indians.  Besides his season line, Garko has been hot recently (.429 in his last seven games with two homers).  Pac Bell/AT&T/The Fridge That Sandoval Raids is not a hitter’s haven, but Garko should hit in the heart of the order and see every day playing time.  Definitely worth pursuing in NL-Only leagues and 12 team leagues, if you’re hurting at corner. The other name worth mentioning is Andy Marte, who was called up by the Indians yesterday.  In Triple-A this year, Marte has a .329/.366/.590 line with 17 homers in just under 300 ABs.  Not too long ago, Marte was a blue chip prospect in the minors.  But Marte’s middle name may as well be Prospect-Shmespect.  As in, show it in the majors, Prospect-Shmespect.  Marte may get that chance again, but outside of very deep mixed leagues (15+ teams) and AL-Only leagues, you need to take a wait and see approach.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Hamilton – Dropped to 7th in the order. We may need to start calling him Josh 20081stHalfilton.  Where’s Brokeback Hamilton?

Daric Barton – Headed to the DL.  I’ve already talked too much about this schmohawk.

Bronson Arroyo – The Yankees denied interest in Arroyo.  Nice neg.

Jonny Gomes – 2 HRs yesterday vs. two righties. Will be harder for Dusty to bungle The Gomes Situation™ with Dickerson on the DL.  Gomes should get the majority of starts… Oh, who am I kidding, Dusty will still find a way.

Tommy Hunter – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He could’ve pitched a shutout and I’d be saying the same thing here.  Don’t go near him.  His minor league stats are yawnstipating.  He will leave you crying in the corner of your cubicle.

Billy Butler – 5-for-5, Voice from the future, “Next year Grey will be excited about him in the preseason.”

James Shields – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  He’s gonna need a freakin’ shield if I ever run into him on the street.  Can’t start him away, can’t start him at home… How does he have a 3.87 ERA on the year?  When did he ever pitch good?  I don’t remember that.  Yesterday, I said to Rudy over IM, “Shields is getting rocked again. What else is knew (sic)?”  Rudy, “He usually waits until the 6th or 7th inning.”

Pat Burrell – HR yesterday.  Hasn’t gotten hot like I would’ve thought, but there’s still time.

Nick Swisher – 2 HRs.  He dedicated both homers to his fallen comrades (his sideburns).

Robinson Cano – I never watch the Yankees because everyone knows about them and ESPN does a fine job of covering every one of their moves/non-moves/possible moves, but I watched them yesterday (cause of freakin’ Shields).  Anyway, Cano tried to steal 2nd.  He was out by five steps.  I have a new contest for next year’s All-Star game festivities, Guys Who Look Fast But Are Remarkably Slow Race Against Guys Who Look Slow But Are Fast.  First heat, Cano vs. Pablo Sandoval.  Like you wouldn’t watch this.

Randy Wolf – 6 IP, 2 ER.  Of course he got no run support.  Unlucky like a Wolf.

Josh Beckett – 7 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks and his 12th win.  My AL Cy Young prediction doesn’t look too bad so far.  Will depend on how much imagination capturing Greinke’s still doing.

Adam LaRoche – 2-for-4, with two half-homers.  Has now started three days in a row.  Meanwhile, Lowell trimmed his goatee.

Everth Cabrera – HR yesterday, while Kyle Blanks stole a base.  That was nice of Homer Bailey to let Everth hit from second and give Blanks a 59 foot lead off first.

Homer Bailey – 7 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  He’s trying to sucker you in.  Don’t fall for it.

Ryan Zimmerman – HR yesterday.  Might be finally getting hot again.  Took about 2 months.  Maybe it was my snide comparison of him to Kouzmanoff yesterday (who also homered).

Josh Willingham – Two grand slams yesterday and 4 homers in the last 7 games. When they’re hot, and this even goes for Nationals players, they’re worth owning everywhere.  BTW, with 8 RBIs yesterday, guess how many RBIs Willingham has on the season?  39.  He recorded a fourth of his RBI total in one game… In almost August.  That’s incredible, and not the good kind of incredible.

Garrett Atkins – Started at first, and since Helton usually bats third, Atkins batted third.  Jim Tracy must be a disciple of Leyland.

Corey Hart – He gets sizzling.  Why do I tell you this?  Because he has two homers in the past two games.

Jeff Francoeur – 3 homers and batting .429 in the last seven games.  I fully expect him to fall on his face again, but maybe Frenchy’s not toast.

Alfonso Soriano – Grand slam yesterday.  He also gets scalding hot for extended periods of time.  Or see Hart, Corey, or two above.

Carlos Lee – And another guy who’s finally picking up the pace with 3 homers in his last 7 games.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  He deserved more offense.  He also deserves the award for Even His Owners Can’t Believe He Has a 2.65 ERA.

Kendry Morales – 2 HRs yesterday.  As someone in the comments pointed out the other day, April Grey had Kendry as a sleeper, July Grey had Kendry as a Sell.  April Grey says to July Grey, “You’re a moron.”

Brian Fuentes – 4 earned and no outs recorded.  Ow…  Wait, what?  Ouch…

Gordon Beckham – Now has two homers in the past two games.  C’mon, Ozzie, move him up in the order!

Garrett Jones – When I saw he had one RBI, I thought for sure he hit a homer and Yahoo just hadn’t scored it.  Alas…

Tim Lincecum – 9 IP, 0 ER, 15 Ks.  He would’ve had 18 Ks, but Adam LaRoche was in Boston.

Adam Lind – The Jays scored 11 runs, Lind went 0-for-4 — Ticker Tease!

Nolan Reimold – 2-for-3 as he stole his sixth base yesterday.  I get it, Michael Bourn is Fred Savage and he’s Judge Reimold.

This was covered a bit in the Chone Figgins blurb in Friday’s Buy/Sell, but it’s worth giving it its own post.  Fantasy baseball trading deadlines are right around the corner, time is slipping…slipping…slipping into the future and your fantasy baseball teams need to lose yesterday’s lunch or get off the pot.  The worst feeling is coming within a few points of winning and pulling up short because you held on too tightly to your players.  In October, there won’t be an award for being 50 steals greater than everyone else, but losing the championship by 1 point because you didn’t trade for power.

If you have a sizable lead anywhere, strengthen weak spots.  For instance, you have a 15 save lead over your nearest competitor, but a 25 save lead over the pack.  You see a trade partner for your Papelbon, but they’re only willing to give you Mark DeRosa.  You try to convince yourself to do the trade for the symmetry of owning DeRosa and de la Rosa, but decide Papelbon is worth more.  So in the end you fall 5 homers short of 1st place, but you’re 35 saves up on everyone.  A Papelbon in the hand is not worth two points in the standings.  In one year leagues, now is not the time to be worrying about the intrinsic value of a player.  Only worry about the value they are to your team.

Excess saves – chuck ‘em for what you need.  Have Bourn, Figgins and Taveras — well, I’m not sure how you’re even competing — but trade them for some power.  You need to start acting now.  There’s no time like the present… The present is a gift… Sleep with scratchy rear, wake with smelly finger… Fill-in your own cliché.  Just git r done!

Jason Bay has been terrible.  Like Don Mattingly’s wife in a mugshot terrible.  In June, J-Bay hit .230 and 4 homers, but he was hitting the cover off the ball in June compared to July.  In July, he’s hitting .203 with 1 homer.  This month Garrett Jones has hit more homers during REM sleep.  The optimist in me says Bay will hit 15 homers and .300 the rest of the way with ten steals.  The pessimist in me thinks he’ll be benched in favor of Chris Duncan.  The realist looks at all of his splits and sees a guy that has been consistent throughout his career, minus a season (2007) when he was battling knee problems.  The surrealist in me thinks Bay will hit a line drive up the middle that will ricochet off the pitcher and shoot to the 1st baseman who will smack the ball into center, then the ball will slowly roll back towards the infield until God tilts the field and the ball rolls towards the 3rd baseman, but God tilts too far and the field freezes causing the ball to roll back towards the catcher.  In all likelihood, Bay’s 2nd half should be somewhere in the realist realm (though it would be cool if the surrealist was spot-on).  I think Bay can give you 10+ homers, .280 average and a handful of steals.  Right now, I’m actively trying to acquire him in one league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Back to the DL.  In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.

Ted Lilly – After he was rocked by the Phils, I said he might end up on the DL.  Lo and behold, voilà, alas, see that, told ya so, etc.  Lilly’s now on the DL.  Will miss about a month.

Kevin Millwood – Left after two innings because of tightness in his glutes.  That never bothered Richard Simmons.

Chad Gaudin/John Lannan – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, respectively, with two no decisions.  Watching the Nats and Padres really tested my love for baseball.  I don’t want to test fate for the off chance Tom Paciorek is rehired, but listening to Bob Carpenter and Dibble is like sitting next to Ted Striker on an airplane.

Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal.  This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260.  This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Everth Cabrera – It was about five games ago, I said I’m selling back all of my old EverCab CDs at Amoeba, now he has 4 straight games with a steal.  SAGNOF!

Kyle Blanks – HR yesterday.  Rudy’s pride and joy now has three homers in the last week (while batting about .240).

Daric Barton – 2-for-4, after he finally did something he left the game with a hamstring strain.  If he were a bigger name, he could have had the lead with the title, Barton Fink.

Dallas Braden – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 16 baserunners.  I sat him in The Jetstream.  I’m going to give him his next start vs. the Blue Jays at home.  If that doesn’t work out, then bye-bye Braden.

Brett Gardner – Headed to the DL with a broken left thumb.  So much for the Fonzie impersonations.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Sticking with the newly-established Brett theme, Cecil now has three solid starts in a row and gets Oakland next.

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Now has a 2.55 ERA through the last two months.  I’ve been starting him everywhere for the last three weeks in a 12 team league.  I’d own him in a 10 team league at this point.

Julio Lugo – Batting .571 since the trade to the Cards and has a homer and a steal.  Lugo wouldn’t be the first middle infielder lemon that LaRussa turned into lemonade.

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  I know he had a lot of great years.  But your nostalgia is hurting you like when you sneak off into your attic and look at photos of you with your one true love.  Burn the photos, man.  She’s married with kids.

Nolan Reimold – .417 and three steals since The Break.  No idea where this newfound speed is coming from, but he’s capable of a few week streak where he’s ownable in all leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  Whatever Yunel was drinking last week, Johnson seems like he’s bogarting it now.

Jason Schmidt – 3 IP, 4 ER.  Yup, sounds about right.

Russell Martin – Hit his third homer yesterday.  He would be leading the league if this were April 7th.

Anthony Swarzak – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2, 1 steal.  After being declared the starting left fielder, he didn’t get the start Friday or Saturday.  Obviously Jim Tracy put starting in quotes.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 2 ER and the Win.  The third starter I had going yesterday in my crapfecta of pitchers (the other two were Lannan and Gaudin).  As I’ve said (numerous times) before, there is so much pitching out there you don’t have to have the exciting names (Liriano, Ervin Santana, Smoltz, Porcello, any number of rookie pitchers) to be competitive in pitching.  Boring works too.

Justin Morneau – 2 HRs yesterday as he makes his case for MVP.  Judge Grey presiding in the case of Morneau versus the AL field.  Without the runs and A-Rod hanging with Madge, what do you got?  A sucka in a uniform callin’ his shot…

Ervin Santana – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  He’s mocking you now.  You took the flier; it didn’t work.  Let him go.  You’ll feel much better when he’s doing this to someone else’s team.

Gerardo Parra – Rico Suave’s mocking me now.  I held him for so long in a deep league.  Since I dropped him last week (4 games ago), 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs and one steal.

Tony Pena Jr. – To go reverse Ankiel on us and become a pitcher.  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em…