Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jimmy Rollins hits the DL. So there goes one of your top two picks. Yeah, that’s no fun. If you didn’t draft him, you’re smiling pretty wide today. Not because one of your leaguemates is suffering (okay, maybe that’s part of the fun). No, you’re smiling because you’re anticipating what I’m about to tell you. There may not be a better buying opportunity on Rollins the entire season. Buy now! Trade for Rollins. Get him. Swindle, people. Don’t wait a week until he’s about to come back. Don’t trade Hanley Ramirez for him; that’s just dopey. No, buy low on Rollins. Know that the ankle injury may linger for a little while, but it’s only April. If you can trade for Rollins offering some package that would have never worked two weeks ago, then you’re still getting a premiere shortstop who will be hitting in front of Utley and Howard all season. In the beginning of the season I had Rollins’s projections at 130/22/70/35/.290, I’d scale that to 110/18/55/22/.290 — so, I guess the question to you is, how much do you want those numbers? If you drafted Alex Rodriguez, you’re not getting much sleep tonight. Arod injured his right quad in Sunday’s game. Arod has a lot of positives going for him, durability is one. I think he’ll be just fine. Sit tight.

Frank Thomas – Hater Bell pointed out how Karabell was a part-mental patient, part-Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer when he called Frank Thomas a big 2008 sleeper. Yeah, it didn’t make any sense in March and still doesn’t, but whatever he’s ESPN’s top analyst, ya’ll.

Mark Lowe – I hope you’re not even bothering with this mess anymore. Putz should be back this Tuesday. Don’t bother with the fill-ins.

Rafael Soriano – He still can’t throw without pain. I think he might be out a month at least. Plan accordingly.

Chipper Jones – I should’ve had WebMd sponsor today’s post. Of course he’s hurt. The guy gets hurt on a base on balls. You know that though.

Edwin Encarnacion – (His last name’s spelling is bothering me. Second “a” or no second “a.” If anyone can get a message to Edwin and ask him, mucho gracias en advancemiento.) Hit two home runs on Sunday. I have him on a lot of teams. I hope this is the beginnings of a hot streak.

Carlos Ruiz – Or as he will now be known, Chuck Ruiz. As in chuck him to the waiver wire. Go Doumit, Mathis, Napoli, etc. It’s three weeks; Chuck Ruiz is being abandoned on my teams. He’ll be on the waiver wire, we can go back later if he starts to hit.

Adam Dunn – If anyone’s worried he’s going to hit under .200 for the season, I’d trade for him in a second.

Scott Baker – Going into the season, I pointed out to all of youse in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. So far this year, it’s 20/4. That’s really good.

Jonathan Sanchez – He strikes people out and in his next start he gets the Reds in SF. Yeah, he should be on your team for at least Friday’s start.

Eric Gagne – Fatty-No-Roids got hit. He was used four straight days, so it’s not anymore of a harbinger than the whole injury-prone thing. The Brewers really, really want him to succeed, so know that as Riske sits on your staff.

Chase Utley – My pick for NL MVP is looking good thus far. Not many of my other picks look so great. BTW, if you haven’t entered that contest yet, there’s still time.

Jair Jurrjens – I’m assuming after all of the times I’ve mentioned Jurrjens, you’ve already picked him up. If you haven’t, you should. Even when he lost this year, he looked good.

Milton Bradley – He hit a home run off Wakefield today. Whatever, just yesterday he was sitting with a sore knee.

Paul Konerko – He was actually dropped in one of my ‘pert leagues. I don’t understand that. It’s still very early in the season. I’m going to try and get him off of waivers, but since all the other ‘perts read this, I probably won’t get him. So why say anything? If you have him, bench him, but don’t drop him. It’s still early.

USA Today might no longer appreciate the insights shared by Larry King in his long-running column but we at Razzball were thrilled when he accepted our invitation to share his thoughts on Fantasy Baseball….

Hello, fantasy baseball fans in America and abroad! Hope your teams are doing better than mine – I keep forgetting that the Dodgers no longer play in a hitter’s park….Am I the only one who gets Grady Sizemore and Brady Anderson mixed up?….One of my favorite players is David Ortiz because we have so much in common – bad knees, we’re older than we claim, and we both like being called Big Papi….Glad to see David Eckstein land in Toronto – I just hope they keep the dome closed during day games to protect his skin….Forget Hollywood, the best director of a cast of characters in LA is Joe Torre. I drafted all four Dodgers OFs just to be a part of it….CC Sabathia’s starts remind me of my prostate exams – I keep hoping for a happy ending but I just end up coughing and looking to the side….Am I the only one that gets Cracker Jack and Crunch ‘n Munch mixed up?….Sorry Mr. Westbrook but the best Jake pitching today is Jake Peavy….SF’s Brian Bocock is the best amateur middle infielder I’ve seen since Billy Crystal….The most insightful Baseball Tonight personality is John Kruk – boy am I glad he’s not in my fantasy baseball league….second most insightful Baseball tonight personality is a 14-way tie….I feel bad for Chad Cordero and Joe Borowski as I lose things all the time too….If Michael Bourn and Carl Crawford ran a race, I’d recommend that the spectators not blink…..Am I the only one that gets Jose Mesa and Jose Valverde mixed up?…..If managing baseball is like a game of chess, Dusty Baker is a Grandmaster…..The only thing hotter than the weather and the women in Arizona are the trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Micah Owings…they go as well together as my face and a pair of fake knockers….

And by breakdown I don’t mean of the crying variety with Zach Greinke suffering from an abulia. (Sorry, it was the Word of the Day.) My favorite fantasy baseball writer, Eric Karabell, did a breakdown of the Royals pitchers. (You can click that link but I think you need to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to read it. And you thought they were for the populous. Well, they are, the paying-money populace. Don’t cha know, they’re owned by Disney. But I digress.) Within Karabell’s piece, he breaks down what he thinks of Gil Meche and Zach Greinke for this year in fantasy baseball. So what did Karabell say that sent me from scratching my head to banging it against the wall?

Karabaloney ranks Gil Meche ahead of Zach Greinke, saying this:

Meche is not off to the same start as last year, of course, when his April ERA was 2.18, and if you remove that month from his 2007 ledger, his final ERA jumps from 3.67 to 4. Maybe he is just average. Isn’t that OK? I have no problem that he is, because Meche is relatively safe at the back end of a fantasy rotation. He’s the most experienced pitcher on the Royals staff, about the only one capable of strikeouts….

Now before you argue with that, he preceded that by saying:

Look, I won’t listen to any arguments about the current statistics. It’s just too early.

Well, that squashes anything anyone could possibly say.  Anyway, what Karabaloney says about it being early is true. So that makes it surprising when he takes Greinke’s early season stats and uses them as fact.

Greinke’s problem could be strikeout rate. It wasn’t an issue a year ago…

Greinke’s strikeout rate is also after three outings?! How is okay to look at Meche and say, “Hey, it’s early. He’s gonna be just fine. I bet my ugly face on it.”

Over 1000 innings, Meche’s major league strikeout rate is 6.38. Just under 500 innings, Greinke’s K/9 is 6.41.  Sure, it’s a smaller sample size but he’s five years younger and he went caca-cuckoo for a year so there’s less miles on his arm. Last year Greinke’s rate was probably a little high because of a lot of it came in middle relief, so what’s fair to say about both of these guys? Both of their K/9 is close to 6. That means Meche is not the only pitcher capable of strikeouts.

Also, Meche will walk more hitters than Greinke. Maybe none of this means anything to Karabaloney, but Meche’s career WHIP is 1.41. Greinke is 1.37.  Now is Meche safer because of his track record? It makes him more predictable, and if we look at his track record, it makes him pretty bleh. On the other hand, Greinke has upside. Will Greinke be a top twenty pitcher at the end of 2008? No, probably not, but to say Meche is better is just stoopid. Now go get your shinebox!

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To help remedy this, we will try to occasionally feature locally blogged advice/insights/humor/etc. that will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).

Send tips to info@razzball.com. Enjoy…

Rays Index - I was always puzzled as to why the Rays didn’t just let Jonny Gomes DH every game vs platoon him with schlubs like Eric Hinske. But it’s all making sense now…

MetsBlog.com – Congratulations John Maine. You are the early season favorite for 2008 gayest Met. Your plaque will go up next to the likes of Mike Piazza, Ray Knight (you know his wife – golfer Nancy Lopez – gave him the 3-wood now and then), and Ron Darling (just b/c the name and his hair). I wonder who was Piazza’s favorite Friend….

Capitol Punishment – Great name for a Nationals blog. Interesting points regarding Ryan Zimmerman’s approach at the plate. I’m a much bigger Zimmerman fan (Zimmerfan?) than Grey but even I’m having trouble getting excited about him right now….

McCovey Chronicles – It can’t be easy being a SF Giants fan right now. They are a real-life Razzball team. Here is some local WTFing regarding their aptly named rookie SS Brian Bocock.

South Side Sox – Is there a more entertaining coach/GM duo out there than Ozzie Guillen and Ken Williams? Don’t fuck with the Swish!

Another Cubs Blog – A Cub fans tries to get to the bottom of Ted Lilly’s bottomless start of the season….

I know what you’re asking yourself, “Someone wanted to interview Grey?” Yes, but it’s not a porn site, so… Well, you should read it anyway. The interview was conducted by the great Tribe Blog, 1835 Miles Away. (99% of the reason they asked for the interview was because of my prediction the Tribe would make it to the World Series. And 1% because of my brilliance.) Now, go read the interview.