During the offseason, I wrote several posts criticizing the ESPN Player Rater and went as far as create my own to critique it.
Below are the links to these posts. Interesting reading if you’re a fantasy baseball or stat junkie. Much less interesting than smack if you are just a junkie.
The whole journey to prove/disprove the ESPN Player Rater eventually led me to the Point Shares concept that is the foundation of my 2008 drafting and player valuation.
Anyway, I checked in on the ESPN Player Rater in 2008 and it looks like they listened to good ol’ Rudy. Some of the improvement I’m seeing:
Negative values (particularly in AVG, ERA, WHIP) – Where 2007′s version would have a floor at 0, the current rater penalizes very bad performance. CC Sabathia currently sports -3.31 points in ERA and -2.64 in WHIP.
No arbitrary cap at 5 points per category – I’m seeing some category leaders at 3 and Michael Bourn at a 7.64 for SB.
It’s too early to do a full assessment of the methodology. I figure I’ll do a Point Shares update at the All-Star Break and compare it then. But given the shit I gave ESPN during the offseason, it’s only fair that I give them credit for coming to their senses (and listening to me).
Has anyone in Razzball Nation been using ESPN for their fantasy league? If so, post your feedback! Grey and I went cold turkey on ESPN FLB after last year’s debacle (first two weeks of stats were fried – I had to calculate the data offline and make year-end adjustments). But I thought their new platform was pretty good. Interesting to hear what the rest of y’all think.
Oh, and just in case the worldwide leader is listening, add smart people to Baseball Tonight. Replace Eric ‘The Emmitt Smith of ESPN Baseball” Young and John Kruk with guys from ESPN.com like Keith Law and Rob Neyer. If you must pander to the masses, go with some tail like Erin Andrews.
Yes, Magic Johnson recovered from AIDS faster than Casey Kotchman beat the kissing disease. Yes, his name sounds like he should be some superhero’s little buddy. No, I don’t have him on any team. So why am I recommending you get him for your fantasy baseball team? Because he knows how to walk. Exciting, right? In six years of the minors his OBP was .407. Last year on the Angels, he had 53 walks against 43 strikeouts. He’s not going to hit 40 home runs. Probably won’t come close to 30 home runs. Back in January, I predicted Casey’s numbers would be 80/22/80/.300 for the season. I’d say those numbers still look about right. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell.
BUY
Robinson Cano – Supposedly the loss of Larry Bowa is what has been bothering him. Yeah, and Oswald acted alone. Bowa’s family doesn’t even miss him that much. Cano will be fine, go get him before he puts together a hot streak.
Carlos Quentin – I’ve told you three times to pick him up, but I don’t feel the love. Go get him then return to tell me about how you dropped Sheffield for him. I’ll smile. What, you don’t want me to smile?
Khalil Greene - He’s a lifetime .250 hitter so I’m not sure what you’re expecting. Oh, home runs! Yeah, he’ll start hitting them. Patience, as Axl Rose would say.
Travis Hafner – I’m a bit concerned about the lack of walks, and even more concerned about the sore shoulder, but I’d still trade for him. He’s had ten home run months before and can do it again.
Paul Konerko – As I recently told you, he was dropped in my ‘pert league. I put in a waiver claim, but came up empty. He was snagged by someone else. If he’s going to reach his career norms, which I think he will, that’s a lot of hitting he’s going to do the rest of the way.
Erick Aybar – You like cheap speed from your middle infielders? Oh, and he has four Ks in 60 at-bats. I likey.
Shane Victorino – Sure the injury is a concern, but he’s still capable of good numbers and he’s about to come back. He bumps Werth to right giving them two outfielders. (Pat the Bat fields as well as Dunn, which is to say they’re DHs in two years.)
Jose Guillen – This is not to say he’s going to have some sort of incredible rest of the season, but he won’t be as bad as he’s been.
Dioner Navarro – Okay, for all of you people still dealing with a hole at catcher, go grab Navarro. His numbers post-All-Star break last year were 30/8/31/.285/2. He’s only 24. Again, those are post-All-Star break numbers.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Melhouse was injured yesterday. I’ve picked Salty up in two leagues. He’ll still have Laird in front of him, but if you really need a catcher, stranger things have happened than Salty getting playing time — one stranger thing was him getting shipped to the minors. To give you an idea of who I’m dropping for him, Qualls in a 12 team and Brocail in a fifteen.
Matt Stairs – Rudy once called Stairs a Poor Man’s Giambi. That was true once, but now Giambi’s actually a Poor Man’s Stairs. Weird, right?
Felipe Lopez – Simply because he didn’t break camp with a starting job doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value now. He’ll need to continue to stay hot to stave off Belliard, but he can go it. It’s not like Belliard has that much going for him.
Clint Barmes – Speaking of shortstops who became 2nd basemen who were then written off, he’s not as good as his last week of starts, but batting high in the Rockies order can’t hurt. But, as we know, deer meat can hurt.
Gary Sheffield – He’s like the baseball equivalent of Rowdy Roddy Piper. You don’t want to like him, but you can’t help yourself. Personally, I love Sheff. He’s a jackass — an egotistical jackass — maniacal even. What’s not to love? Sheffield this year. I know it hurts, but you gotta let him go.
Francisco Liriano – In all but deep leagues and keepers, you’re not selling as much as dropping.
Jorge Cantu – If someone actually believes the resurgence in Florida, I’d sell.
Asdrubal Cabrera – As if having a first name that sounds like a leaky bum isn’t enough, he’s been sitting for Jamey Carroll. Watch to see if Josh Barfield gets the call at 2nd.
Eric Hinske – He goes and gets hot and the club grabs Dan Johnson and Gabe Gross. Here’s mud in your eye, Hinske.
Alfonso Soriano – Not selling sell him for Manny Acosta, but Soriano’s recurring injuries spell trouble. Not to mention, he’s probably older than Tejada.
Jose Lopez – He’s really not that good when he’s playing well, which he is right now.
Kevin Youkilis – He’s not really as good as his April numbers would suggest. If you have a Son of Sam Horn in your league, trade Yooooook.
Daniel Cabrera – Really I could’ve easily put him on the Buy list; that’s the problem with Cabrera. Every time he turns a corner, he turns another corner and he’s right back where he started. If he just turned a corner and stayed there, he’d be incredible.
I’ve been recruited to participate in a weekly fantasy baseball roundtable with several other fantasy baseball bloggers. I feel so knightly.
Rob Reed of BaseballGeeks.com has posted this week’s transcript on his site.
This week’s question (which was kinda from last week) is: Between Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz, C.C. Sabathia, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes and other underperforming fantasy superstars, who is liable to continue to stink throughout the course of the season and why?
I veered away from the obvious answer (CC) and went with Jose Reyes. You can see my rationale on the link. I guarantee by the end of the year that Santana, Peavy, and Webb provide more value than Reyes. Unworthy of his top 5 draft status in my opinion.
Here’s what I said in January, “I’m just going to point out one negative. In 650 ABs, he walked 33 times and struck out 109 times. He’s got speed; he’s in a great hitting park. He will not hit .288 again. At the first sign of struggle, he starts swinging for the fences and he goes into a deep funk. Hitters who don’t take walks fall into slumps. Do yourself a favor and let someone else draft Phillips. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”” And that is me quoting me. Through yesterday’s game Brandon Phillips is at 10/2/6/.250/3 with 20 Ks and 6 walks through 88 at-bats. Also, his BABIP is above the league average, so he actually is doing better than he should. As Rich Dad would say, Brandon Phillips is a liability, not an asset. Will he become completely unusable? I think he could. That’s not to say he will. It’s a bad sign when there’s chance. Don’t trade him for a Sportflics Canseco rookie card and a can of cola, but I would entertain offers. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:
Carlos Gomez – He homered yesterday, but I don’t think that’s an indication of great things on the horizon. As I said two weeks ago, a guy who tries to bunt with two strikes to get on base is not really someone you want to invest too heavily in. Picture this: Guy buys a Ferrari, but can’t afford gas.
Francisco Liriano – I told you to trade him two weeks ago. He has no value now.
Johnny Cueto – I began writing a strongly-worded letter to Dusty Baker when he let Cueto bat in the fifth inning, but Cueto surprised me and made short work of the Astros in the sixth and seventh inning. I feel like Cueto’s my little brother and I have to defend him, but he really only made a few mistakes in this entire game and half of them were to Berkman, who is on fire right now.
Corey Patterson – Was good to see him get the start against a righty (it’s bad that it’s not a given). Then Dusty pulled him for Freel when he was about to face a different righty. Oh, Dusty, you do have your way, huh? Corey made a baserunning mistake prior to getting yanked; he’s now probably further in the doghouse. He better give Jayson Nix a call for some moral support.
Brian “The Brain” McCann – He was the only top catcher I liked coming into this season for his value versus ADP. Hasn’t disappointed thus far, not to mention his slide into third for his triple was like a Triple Lindy gone bad.
Dustin McGowan – Seven walks. Sixteen on the season. Like when a girl calls you after a first date and says, “I had a really good time tonight.” Too much, too soon.
Jayson Werth – Four home runs and a .300 average. When The Flying Hawaiian returns, Jenkins isn’t going to play a whole lot.
Donnie Murphy – 2 home runs yesterday. Still nothing to see here.
Cliff Lee – For those wondering where this is coming from, he did finish fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2005 when he won 18 games and posted a sub-4.00 ERA. Though the strikeouts to this point are high. If you can move him for Wainwright or Maine, I would.
Miguel Olivo – I thought the lack of Miguel Cabrera post-home run hugs and booty slaps might affect Olivo adversely, but he’s hit three home runs in ten games.
Rafael Betancourt – In case you forgot because he hadn’t recorded a save yet, he is the closer.
Melky Cabrera – 4 home runs and counting.
Adam Melhouse – Injured his right hand. Whoopie-dee-doo, right? If he goes down, Salty comes back. Come again? You need a catcher, right? JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA might get the call-up. (I kinda hope he doesn’t cause his name is a nightmare to spell.)
Mike Napoli – 5 home runs and counting. Does it really matter if he’s not starting every game?
Chad Billingsley – I’m going to try a little experiment. Before the game starts, I’m writing this *****GUESS ALERT: Billingsley’s going to strikeout a lot because the D-Backs are swing-happy, he’ll walk a few cause that’s what he do, and he’ll still lose.***** Okay, I’m back. Wow, I did pretty well. And so did Chad, 12 Ks and only two walks. Very nice, but he still gave up five runs. I have no idea how he pulled that off because I had to watch Survivor. SPOILER ALERT: I can’t believe Jason, James and Erik didn’t try something. They made me embarrassed to be a man (as if it’s not embarrassing enough watching Survivor). James needs to stop talking about Eve and the stupid apple and start playing the game. And when did they develop Natalie’s character? Um, never. She was completely out of left field. You need to plant the seeds that someone is an -ocker short of a rocker. Okay, Survivor rant over. Sorry.
Nomar Garciaparra – He’s batting third. The Dodgers’ offense called and they said they wanted Mike Piazza back. They’d even take ’07 Piazza. (BTW, You know that twitchy shizz Nomar does before he gets into the box? You think he does that before he gets into Mia’s box? If Mia were to let him.
Note: Besides providing advice and news on fantasy baseball, we at Razzball created and now sponsor a game where the goal is to manage a team and compile the worst stats. These Historical Spotlights honor those players who would’ve excelled in such a format. See here for more info. See herefor the summary of the inaugural 2008 season.
What’s true in Razzball is what’s true in real life: All good things must come to an end. Yes, I’m speaking of Lima Time.
While early reports that Jose Lima was released from the Kia Tigers of the Korean League may have been lost in translation, it is just a matter of time before a bad outing against the Samsung Kimchi Dragons or the Hyundai Seoul Glows (my favorite Korean league team) will bring an end to a career so anthemic in its enough ups, downs, beatups, and beatdowns that it could only be best metaphorized by Tina and Ike Turner’s ‘River Deep Mountain High” (wish I had Jose’s version – similar costuming and choreography though)
Señor Lima was gracious enough to put together two seasons so Razztastic that we’ll commemorate both in this Spotlight. And…vamanos…
2000 – Houston Astros
Coming into 2000, everything was going Jose’s way. Traded to Houston in 1996 from then baseball (and still urban) purgatory Detroit, Jose turned in a 16-8/169 K/3.70/1.12 pitching line in 1998 and a 21-10/187 K/3.58/1.22 in 1999 that netted him 4th place in the Cy Young voting. At 27 years old, it truly seemed to be Lima’s time…..to be Razztastic.
And Jose didn’t waste any of his precious Lima time in 2000 – putting together Astro-nomical April and May ERAs of 8.42 & 7.68 that netted a 1-7 record. While he was reluctant to give batters a free pass (23 BB), he had no averseness to handing out a free pass around the bases (22 HR). Yes, you read correctly. That’s 22 HR in the first two months of the year. If only there was a phrase that could encapsulate Houston, orbs travelling in the air, and a problem….
The beginning of summer saw Lima have his hottest period of the year, putting together two sub-6.00 ERA months in June or July (5.17 and 5.91) before the weight of carrying such a high ERA into August wore him down. ERAs of 6.67 and 6.16 closed the year.
The HR total fell two short of Bert Blyleven’s 50 HR in 1986 (bet Bert wishes he could do over some of those gopher pitches). But, in Blyleven’s defense, he did pitch 75 more innings than Lima.
How bad was Lima’s Gopheritis? His EHRA (Earned Home Run Average) was 2.20. Pedro Martinez’s ERA in 1999 was 2.07!
While the league ERA was a ridiculous 4.96, the only starter with 162+ IP that was within a 1/2 run of Jose’s ERA was Omar Daal who had a Razztastic 4-19 record with a 6.14 ERA w/ Arizona and Philly.
2001 – 2004 – Calm Before The Storm
Hoping that the Razzterful 2000 season was the anomaly (because so many great pitchers have that one season in the middle of their career where they post ERAs north of a 6.00 ERA), team after team sought after Lima. Detroit in 2001-2002. KC in 2003. LA in 2004. His 2002 season in Detroit – with a 7.77 ERA in 68 1/3 IP – hints at a lost Razzball season. Imagine how many losses Detroit could’ve had that year (they had 106) if they committed more to Lima.
The seemingly foolhardy hope that Lima would party again like it’s 1999 was realized in 2004 as Lima managed a 13-6 season with a 4.07 ERA in the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium. Even more amazing is he managed this while, reportedly, herpes sores and whatnot raged within the friendly confines of his genital area. Not surprisingly, this only made him more beloved amongst LA fans.
2005 – Kansas City Royals
Lima’s uplifting climb in 2004 gave him just enough rope to plummet to a new low in 2005. He found a worthy bungee partner in the Kansas City Royals who were coming off a 104 loss season and were ready for more. A slow start in April – 2 losses and a 6.08 ERA in 5 starts – might have stood out on any other team but were par for the course in KC. Looking for more of the Limalight, Jose brought some Razzball flowers in May reaching double digits in ERA (10.05) over 6 starts and 28 IP. With hitters inexplicably keeping the ball in the park, Lima had to take matters into his own hands by sporting a 12:15 K/BB ratio and 3 HBPs to boot. Despite all that, he only had 4 losses to show by June 1st.
June saw him ‘improve’ to a 7.11 ERA before an unexpected hot streak in July (3.79 ERA in 35 IP) endangered his second Razzball Spotlight-worthy season. Returning to form, a 6.52 August and 9.64 September boosted Lima’s final season numbers to:
How bad was that ERA? Among those eligible for the ERA title (162+ IP), he was a full run greater than his nearest competitor (Mark Hendrickson).
An 80:61 K/BB ratio? Are you kidding me?
How much did he give the O-face to the Royals? Well, is it a coincidence that Grienke’s rookie promise blew up in 2005 (17 L, 5.80 ERA) and he had a nervous breakdown in 2006?
Still 32 years old with more Razzterful seasons left in his arm, Lima never got a chance for the three-peat (® Pat Riley). A 17 IP cup of coffee in 2006 with the Mets was the last episode of Lima time on MLB.tv.
Jose Lima. Bad pitchers come. Bad pitchers go. But a pitcher like you don’t come knocking every day. Tina and Ike – close this Razzball Spotlight out…
