March 28, 2008By: Grey Category: Uncategorized47 Comments →
Grey’s picks are in red. Rudy’s are in blue.
AL Pennant Winner – The Indians, balanced offense, Pronk staying healthy and a Sabathia/Carmona 1-2 punch gets them to the Series.
AL Pennant Winner - The Yankees. Feel like Girardi, the young pitchers, and being an underdog for the first time in more than a decade will revive this team.
NL Pennant Winner – San Diego Padres, strong pitching and just enough offense get them through October. NL Pennant Winner - Milwaukee Brewers. Feel like the Mets, Phillies, and Cubs will find a way to lose. The Brewers have the hitting and pitching pieces (well, except a closer) – this is the year they put it together.
2008 World Series Champion – Padres’s pitching/Petco holds the Indians’s offense in check.
2008 World Series Champion - Yankees. It won’t be pretty but they’ll find a way.
AL MVP – Grady Sizemore, he goes 35/30, but it’s only a no-brainer when he ignites the division winner.
AL MVP - Alex Rodriguez. I know. Boring.
NL MVP – Chase Utley, giving the Phillies the MVP trifecta.
NL MVP - Prince Fielder. He’ll hit his weight.
AL Cy Young – Erik Bedard, barely edging out Sabathia. AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander. Offense gives him 21 Wins.
NL Cy Young – Cole Hamels, edges out Santana and Peavy because of the wins.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana. I’ve got too much invested in him not to think this.
AL Rookie of the Year – Daric Barton, only because the Rays are a bunch of cheap bastards.
AL Rookie of the Year - Adam Jones. He’ll get 400+ ABs which can’t be guaranteed for other rookies.
NL Rookie of the Year – Manny Parra, he doesn’t look good this spring, but the Brewers are committed to him. The Rays should take some notes from the Brewers on how to manage rookies. NL Rookie of the Year – Joey Votto. Dusty will mold him.
AL Comeback Player of the Year – Zach Greinke, a 25 year old comeback player and he fizzles out again in 2009. Catch the excitement!
AL Comeback Player of the Year – Johnny Damon. He’s got one very good year left in him. I’m seeing .295/110/20/75/30
NL Comeback Player of the Year – Pedro Martinez, showing stretches of vintageness (is that a word?).
NL Comeback Player of the Year – Rafael Furcal, two good ankles and a contract year.
One winner will receive:- $50 Amazon Gift Certificate.
To enter, type your picks for each of the 11 categories in the comment section below by 11:59 PST Wednesday, April 3o, 2008. The winner will be the one that beats the experts’ choices. So if you get 8 out of 11, and Grey gets 4 and Rudy gets 7, you win. Ain’t that swell? (In case of a tie, one winner will be chosen at random from all winning entries.) If you want to make an educated guess, try this link. Or this link. After that, I can’t help you, cause that would be cheating.
You must be 18+
One comment per person. Duplicate or additional comments will be ignored (per usual). If you have never posted a comment before, your comment must be approved. Winners will be notified by e-mail, so a correct email address is probably the way to go.
Assuming you have already drafted your teams for this 2008 fantasy baseball season, these are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.
DROPS
Cameron Maybin – He’s gone. Might be in the minors until rosters expand.
John Patterson – After being released by the Nationals (how embarrassing!), he’s going to get another shot with the Rangers. Ugh. You don’t want any part of him, unless you’re into tall, long-haired hippies that are injury-prone.
Scot Shields – I love middle relievers, but he has forearm issues. Not worth it. Grab Justin Speier if you want to handcuff K-Rod.
Kelvim Escobar – If you have a spot on your DL, then I guess hold onto him. If no room, drop his injury-prone ass, he might be done for the year.
Jay Bruce – Dusty Baker’s not playing him this year.
Homer Bailey – You’re waiting for magic in the NL-only leagues. Other leagues, look elsewhere. (Aside, if his name was John Smith, you wouldn’t have even drafted him. He’s got a great name!)
Evan Longoria – Braun was a special case last year. The Rays are cheap bastards and may call Longoria up in June or may wait even longer. I’m sorry, but you need someone else.
Chase Headley – Not happening here either. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the call sooner than Longoria for two reasons, 1) Padres aren’t cheap bastards 2) Edmonds and Giles aren’t long for this world. Headley just needs to prove he can play some outfield.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – It’s with a heavy heart I report you should drop Salty. He’ll probably be up sooner rather than later, so you might have to pounce to get him back, but a catcher in the minors does nothing for you. Come back soon, Salty… (I am thrilled I won’t have to spell his name for a little while.)
ADDS
Carlos Villanueva – Brewers sent Vargas packing and handed his rotation keys over to Villanueva. Vargas really wasn’t that bad of a pitcher and he was having a decent spring. This says what you need to know about Villanueva’s talent.
Jayson Nix – If you need a 2nd basemen, he’s got the job in Colorado. I’d expect a decent value here. Think a young Marcus Giles. (BTW, Giles got old fast, right? I guess steroids do that.) For Nix, say 10/10/.270.
Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto – They’re going to be a hot add everywhere (in fact, I’ve already pimped them once) and the hype might exceed the results, but they’re worth trying on for size if you need a starter.
Matt Diaz – I’ve been telling you to draft him for three months now. The Braves are going to play him and he can hit .320 with some pop.
Carlos Gomez – He recently had a cramp in his hamstring and Punto took over for him, but the injury’s not serious. Not sure why he’s suddenly off everyone’s radar, but he is. He shouldn’t be. He can steal 50 bases, though he might strikeout 130 times. The Twins are committed to him and they’re a running team. This is another reason why I told you to not reach for steals in your drafts. Juan Pierre’s old; Carlos Gomez is not.
Joey Gathright – More speed if you need it.
Eugenio Velez – And yet more speed. Aren’t you pissed you drafted Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras or any of those other all-speed schmohawks?
Chris Snyder – If you punted catcher and you’re sick of looking at Pudge or Varitek on your roster, take a flier on the D-Backs backstop. He’s having a super-sized spring training.
Austin Kearns – I dislike Austin Kearns as much as the next person, and he’s burned me on many occasions, but he’s only 27. His road average last year was .301. The new Nats park might play like Coors East. You gotta take that chance. Just don’t drop anyone too precious.
Nate McLouth – He went 13/22 last year and he has a decent eye. He’s not going 40/40 with 150 RBIs, but you can do worse off the waiver wire.
Tom Gordon – Lidge is on the DL to start the season. Why not grab some free saves?
HOLDS
Josh Fields – He was sent down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Crede gets traded or Fields ends back up in the majors very soon.
Brad Lidge – He was put on the DL, but he wants to play. He’ll be fine as far as the knee goes.
Manny Parra – He had a rough time of it in spring training, but he’s got a job for as long as Yovani’s on the DL, Parra will get a shot. Here’s hoping it goes well.
Andy Pettitte – He’s still having back issues, but he’ll still be good value for some wins.
(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Baltimore Orioles preview.)
In the offseason, Orioles’ VP and defacto GM Andy MacPhail finally started a rebuilding process that has been needed for the last decade. The off-season tone was much different. No over the hill stopgap players were signed. Trades were made. No false assurances were made by Peter Angelos that this team can win some games. The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will not be a good team, they could easily lose 100 games. With rebuilding though, a 100 lose team with future potential will be better than a 80 lose team with aging downside vets. Stars Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada were traded for prospects as the build for the future philosophy has been embraced. Brian Roberts could be traded aaannnnyyyy time now.
Pitching
The trade of Erik Bedard to the Mariners has left a gapping hole at the start of the rotation. There were nasty rumors that Steve Trachsel would get the nod on opening day, but instead Jeremy Guthrie will. Guthrie had a great first half of the 2007 season. Before the All-Star Break he went 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA, after the break he went 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA before getting shut down for the season. This season will show whether Guthrie will be a viable major league pitcher or a flash in the pan. Daniel Cabrera is being looked at as the number two pitcher. For his career, he’s been looked at as a diamond in the rough. He has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to harness it. Last season’s 9-18 debacle pushed me to my limit with Cabrera. Amazing arm, but anything that goes wrong goes to his head and the floodgates open. He had his second consecutive 100 walk season last year with 108. His ERA ballooned to a robust 5.55 for 2007. Cabrera’s last two pitching coaches have been Ray Miller and Leo Mazzone, if new pitching coach Rick Krantiz can turn Cabrera around, a statue of him should be erected at the Yard. Adam Loewen missed most of last season with shoulder surgery. A screw was put in there and hope is he’ll rebound. The spring has not been kind to him with short outings and control issues. I hope he’s getting the rust off, but I worry about him. Steve Trachsel will have the four spot. Trachsel is a stopgap, preventing the O’s to do what they’ve done so much over the years. They rush a young pitching up to big club with not enough time in the minors because the rotation stinks. The young pitcher gets shelled and after a few times out, he’s sent back down and forgotten. Trachsel will eat innings, put us to sleep, be mediocre, and hold a spot until one of the young arms is truly ready to go. Matt Albers and Brian Burres are competing for the five spot. Albers, who came via the Tejada trade to Houston, seems to be the favorite. Burres started some last season but seems, in my opinion, to be better suited as long relief. The rotation doesn’t look pretty now, but with the likes of Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, Hayden Penn, Brandon Erbe, Pedro Beato, the injured Troy Patton, Tim Bascom, Radhames Liz, Garret Olson, and Chorye Spoone in the minors, the rotation can only get better over time, we hope.
Bullpen
The Baltimore bullpen has been brutally bad over the past few seasons. Retreads come and go, quality arms get overworked and rendered useless. The pen this year could be ok. Danys Baez and his horrible contract will be out for the season. Chris Ray will be out for the better part of the season. George Sherrill, acquired in the Bedard deal, will be the closer. Sherrill could be a nice surprise for O’s fans, but the question is ‘how many save opportunites will he get?” Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford were stellar last season. Walker was the most dependable arm in the pen. Bradford was mostly reliable but at times his outings were hellish tightrope acts. Dennis Sarfate, acquired through the Tejada trade, is a power arm added to the pen. The loser of the Burres/Albers battle for the rotation spot will be a long reliever. Randor Bierd, a rule 5er from Detroit, and Greg Acquino seem locked into spots in the pen. Rocky Cherry has had a nice spring, but looks to be the odd man out (to Norfolk) due to option issues with everyone else.
Position Players
The outfield could be one of the better ones in years. Nick Markakis had a great season with 23 HR and 112 RBI and only looks to be getting better. He appears to a cornerstone that the O’s can build around him. He’s been the pretty much the exception to the rule about the O’s farm over the past decade. Playing along side him now is newly acquired CF Adam Jones, the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Jones has been said to be a Tori Hunter/Mike Cameron blend player. It’s going to be a year or two to see if Jones will be as good or better than those players, but getting him is a big win for the O’s. Luke Scott will be the primary leftfielder. Scott has power, but had limited playing time in Houston. In Baltimore, he should have plenty of time in left and get some hits. Jay Payton, Tike Redman, Jay Gibbons, and Scott Moore will be vying for reserve time in the OF. Moore is going to be more of a super utility player. Payton’s a declining player (how can you decline if you’ve never really been good?) with a bad contract who the O’s will trade at their first chance. Gibbons was a horrible contract (If we’re lucky, the FO will release him and just eat the money left on the contract. I have nothing further about Gibbons to say that doesn’t involved expletives) from the previous regimes that the O’s would love to shed, but no other team is that foolish. Redman, if Payton gets traded, would be the 4th outfielder.
In the infield, Kevin Millar will anchor first base and sadly be the clean-up hitter. Millar can work a count and get some hits, but he’s in the twilight of his career. A player like him is good to have on a rebuilding team to be a rah-rah team guy, but to have him hitting clean-up shows you the state of the O’s. Brian Roberts, at the moment, is still an Oriole. The trade with the Chicago Cubs could happen tomorrow or never. If he stays with the O’s, they have one of the best speed guy and lead-off hitters in the game. Roberts can get on base and change game with his steals and speed. Smart money is that he’ll start the season as an O but will be traded at some point in the season. Melvin Mora will still be at third, with Scott Moore (hopefully) taking over at some point. Mora’s in the downside of his career and was unwisely given a nice contract mere moments before his decline. Scott Moore came from the Cubs and has had a nice spring and will hopefully make the team and getting playing time. Moore has a nice pop to his bat and could pan out to be a good third baseman. Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey are vying for the shortstop job. Both of these guys are the classic all glove and no hit guys, that’s the best that I can say about them. Aubrey Huff will see time at DH and 1st this season. He’ll go through his yearly slow start (1st half of the season) before hitting his midseason stride (hit for the cycle one day, strikeout four times the next game).
Ramon Hernandez is back at catcher. Ramon had an bad year last season and had a recurring oblique injury. Refreshed and in camp in better shape, he could return to form. This is probably his last season in Baltimore with Matt Wieters being the catcher of the future. A trade to Mets makes sense. Guillermo Quiroz appears to have won the backup catcher job with a solid spring.
Vets like Mora, Payton, Huff, Millar, and any other player over 30 could and probably will be dealt during the season to get more prospects and to open up positions for young players to man. I’ll cheer the day when the last of the Flannagan/Duquette regime’s troop of 1st base/DH only players are gone.
Fantasy Players must haves
Not really many on the O’s but here’s a few that are good ones Nick Markakis- He had 23 HR and 112 RBI. He’s only getting better and you should expect something along the lines of this this season.
George Sherrill- Hasn’t closed in the majors before, but will have the job with the O’s this season. The only worry is lack of save chances.
Luke Scott- If you’re looking for a 4th outfielder to use, Scott could be a nice pickup. Scott has shown that he can hit in his limited time in Houston. In Camden, he could have some get production as long as deadweight like Payton and Gibbons don’t steal his playing time.
Brian Roberts- He doubtfully will be an Oriole all season, but he still is now. Roberts is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. He can get on base and steal bases. Roberts one of my favorites, I’ve got his jersey. Something tells me I need to go ahead and get that Nick Markakis jersey.
Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford could have a little fantasy value too. I like Walker better than Bradford, but both are decent.
So it’s probably going to be a long season. I don’t think we’ll lose 100 games, but I still have a little optimism left in me. The O’s could be slightly better than we think (or rather less worse) but it depends on the starting pitching. If the pitching fares poorly, well…I’ve been through ten losing seasons, an 11th wouldn’t kill me.
It had been about a month since my first blogger draft and I hadn’t made too many adjustments to my rankings (move Pierre down, move Josh Hamilton and Billy Butler up, etc.).
My strategy remained the same – get the most value out of each pick and don’t leave the draft with any glaring weaknesses (harder in a 12 team league to fill holes via free agency – espec. in an advanced league). After running projections for each team, I feel quite strong about my team in all categories except SB and Wins. But with Pierre and Velez, I’ve got hope in SB and I’d prefer to finish middle of the pack in Wins than use crappy starters and damage my ERA/WHIP.
The only other observation I have coming out of this draft is a mild note of surprise at the number of reach picks that were made (vs. Average Draft Position). Examples include Kinsler in the 4th round, Zimmerman in the 5th round, Hamilton and Victorino in the 6th round, Carlos Gomez and Billy Butler in the 13th round, and Andre Ethier in the 14th round. It goes to show that despite all the mock and real drafts done by the members of this league, it’s tough to know exactly when a certain player might come off the board. I prefer to avoid reaching more than a round over ADP for any player but definitely respect a team going after ‘their players’.
See below for my team and the rosters of the other teams. Those in blue are players that I have on my other blogger league team.
If you are so inclined, feel free to comment on my team…
C (131) Jorge Posada
1B (14) David Ortiz
2B (182) Ty Wigginton
SS (107) Michael Young
3B (38) Garrett Atkins
CI (179) Adam LaRoche
MI (158) Jhonny Peralta
OF (35) Nick Markakis
OF (59) Torii Hunter
OF (86) Jeff Francoeur
OF (203) Nate McLouth
OF (251) Melky Cabrera
UTIL (278) Mike Jacobs
UTIL (206) Juan Pierre
SP (11) Johan Santana
SP (62) Dan Haren
SP (155) Pedro Martínez
SP (230) Andy Pettitte
RP (83) Joe Nathan
RP (110) Mariano Rivera
RP (134) Matt Capps
RP (227) Rafael Betancourt
RP (302) Hideki Okajima
March 26, 2008By: Grey Category: Uncategorized9 Comments →
This is the second morning I’ve woken up to a boxscore and I’m pissed off. This has nothing to do with fantasy baseball, and everything to do with baseball baseball. I like to watch the games. The first games were 3amPST (my time). First Selig makes an exhibition game, where none of the players care about the outcome, into the deciding factor for home field advantage in the World Series, now this. The opening of the season can’t take place while I’m fast asleep. It’s just stoopid. When they premiere a huge summer blockbuster is it done at 3am? No. Midnight. Which is reasonable. I would’ve stayed awake for that. The Japanese didn’t even care about the 2nd game because their beloved Dice-K wasn’t pitching. So who are you doing a game in Japan for? Expatriates? Bobby Valentine? Gedde Watanabe?
With that said, if Brandon Moss keeps getting starts, you might have to take a look soon because JD Drew has never been the model of good health. But I would wait until the Sox are back in the US to see how much Moss will play. He does have a good eye and decent pop. Manny looks like he’s starting the season on fire, which is good for his owners, but he’ll still get bored by July/August. Harden looked good last night at 3am (at least from the clips I saw, because it was too damn early to watch the game!), but let’s see Harden stay healthy for three months before we start giving everyone who drafted him a reach around.
Here’s looking forward to Sunday and the actual start of the season.
