Fantasy folx! As we come upon the fifth month of the fourth year of this our third millennium of the Common Era within the second baker’s dozen of years, I have but one request of you: Don’t Panic. I mean, a Catcher is in the Top 10 on the Player Rater, Alec Bohm is out-hitting Kyle Tucker. and Taylor Ward outranks Trea Turner. These things happen. Stats are just turning the corner on being “meaningful,” which of course means things like our redactions of “Fantasy Schmohawk” articles are nigh. I kid! We remember fondly our worst calls. Like, Jordan Walker. Sigh. Let’s see if we can recover from our Jordan Walker hopeium.
What I Like
Joey Meneses (WAS, 1B/UTIL, 7% Rostered): Y’all probably know by now that I talk a fair amount of baseball with Coolwhip. What do those conversations sound like, you ask, most likely holding a Miller Lite in one hand and your phone smelling of beer in the other. Well, about the point when brewski starts cascading down Coolwhip’s luscious beard, he looks to the sky, instinctively finds the North Star, and whispers “Joey Meneses, 2024 sleeper.” Actually, he says this every year. Here’s his 2023 sleeper article. But this year…this could be the year! Meneses is batting nearly .400 over the past 10 games, which would be an immediate add if he didn’t also have literally 9 singles and a double. That sounds like my high school clique’s prom night, both in terms of attendance and my order at Wendy’s at 930. ENYWHEY. Meneses is free in every league and has some theoretical pop upside. But much like dark matter, us baseball scientists just haven’t seen it. I’dd add JM for bottom-dwelling teams as a backup and see if that pop shows up when the weather warms. I mean, JM had 90 RBIs last year and has a .290 average over his last 900 PA…why is he 7% rostered? Do we hate winning? No, we just hate Charlie Sheen. Go add.
Jesus Sanchez (MIA, OF, 0 % Rostered): I dunno if Sanchez is a true 0%, much like the majority of non-alcoholic beer out there. ENYWHEY. Much like me on Friday nights, he’s generally available. Over the past ten games, Sanchez has been hitting in the middle of the lineup and smacking .318 with a .591 slugging percentage, which will cause even the teetotaling-est folx to whet their whistle. People have fled from Sanchez because he promises power but manages to underdeliver on things like home runs and actually staying on the field. People forget that he’s 26 years old, which is a Miami Marlins 39 to be honest. The statcast numbers scream “Tyler O’Neil” but it’s also kind of muffled. That’s what happens when you get the discount hype man. Sanchez’s measured Slugging%? .313. His expected Slugging%? .470. Worthy of note is that JS is developing into a worm killer, with his launch angle at 2.8 degrees on the 2024 season, which is his career “worst.” I write “worst” in quotes because if he lifted the ball, he’d be your 3rd round draft pick next year. As it is, he seems on track to challenge the opponent’s second baseman. Maybe he’ll get that lift and the homers will follow. I’d add Sanchez to your bench in 12-teamers.
Reed Garrett (NYM, RP, 0% Rostered): So who is in the Top 60 overall on the Player Rater? Soto, Ohtani, Witt, sure. Ranger Suarez? That’s a weird one but sure. Tarik Skubal seems to be hanging in there, and Colton Crowser is still a thing even after Jackson Holliday isn’t. And then right below Ronald Acuna Jr.? Reed Garrett. Who is Reed Garrett? I’m as stumped as you. I had never heard of the guy until the Whiffonator popped his name up on the “Alert” algorithm. RG is a 31-year-old lifelong Quad-A player who has lucked his way into 5 Wins in 8 appearances, which is a thing that happens. But what doesn’t just “happen” by chance? That would be a 17.8 K/9. His swinging strike percentage has generally been around 12% with peaks into the 30s(!). His slider has already garnered 2.3 runs saved in 8 appearances. I mean, this is incredibly small sample size and we have years of data of his adequacy in the minors…but this could be worth watching. The bullpen hierarchy is obviously sorted out for the Mets, but that just means…Roleless Rob time! I might add Garrett in Points Leagues to see what happens, or in deeper head-to-head leagues. I’m not sure if Garrett makes sense in RCLs or head-to-heads yet, but aggressive managers who believe in strikeouts can feel free to give him a shot.
I’m the Problem – It’s Me
Jordan Walker (STL, OF, 95% Rostered): Getting to the moon didn’t happen without some hiccups. This I learned from the documentary on Apple TV+, For all Mankind. This week, our moon-shotter Jordan Walker took his hefty frame to the minors, where he’ll assuredly be comfortable riding in a bus across the scenic US of A, the second country to establish a presence on Mars (again, thanks for that knowledge, For all Mankind). Walker is 22, and it’s arguable whether the Cardinals should have sent him down in the first place. Reason the first: he now has 2 Options, which makes it much tougher for the Cardinals to call him back unless he is legit “Figured Out.” Reason the second (also my favorite pope name): Walker had xStats that were well above his baseball card stats, and the dude had a 12% barrel rate with a 13 degree launch angle (take note, Jesus Sanchez!). Walker’s CSW% was also down 3% from last year. So, we’re talking about a guy who wasn’t great and maybe shouldn’t have been starting for your fantasy team, but the guy wasn’t the worst player out there. What stinks, though, is that youth / options consideration. Hopefully, we see Walker back soon. Redraft fantasy managers with Walker on your roster — see if you can trade him for any value before dropping. Dynasty managers: Obviously you’re holding. That said, I know a lot of fantasy dynasty leagues have the “500 AB” cutoff (and for many leagues, it’s much lower, like 150 AB). There’ll be a bunch of dynasty managers who want to “win now” but are now stuck with Walker on their active roster. For those managers, you do you — I stick with Walker as long as I can though.
What does “500 AB cutoff” mean (vv Dynasty league).
Just curious. Need something to occupy my mind while procrastinatng if it makes sense to roster Reed Garret.t in a 10-team (shallow) league. Is it likely he’ll be piling up saves (or is he more the “2-3 inning role…with 3 days rest”? He did get the hold yesterday.
So like, Fantrax has a majors/minors system, where the “minor” leaguers don’t count against the major league roster. But to count as a “minor” leaguer, there are IP/AB restrictions. In my main league, the limit was 150 AB before a player lost their minor league eligibility. So, one time, I had the foresight to land a little-known player named Jose Ramirez. However, JoRam didn’t land his starting job until way past 150 AB. Because Quad-A JoRam didn’t make sense on a MLB roster, I had to drop him when he was still a UTIL player. The rest is history. So, those minor league IP/AB restrictions are tough decisions!
Hi,
I’m currently holding 5 roster spots with minor league players in hopes they’ll come through soon, but in the meantime my bench is THIN. Anyone here you think is worth dropping, with the idea that they’re not gonna do much even if they do get the call up?
Holliday
Orelvis Martinez
AJ Blubauh
Coby Mayo
Walker
I know Walker is a hold. Holliday looked awful at the plate. It I’m confident it’s just nerves. But what about the other three?
I could probably use an extra OF and right now guy’s like Colton Joe, Meneses, and a few some other potentially decent choices are out there, but I’m waiting on these minor leaguers.
Thanks!
If anything, Blubaugh is your drop — lowest pedigree and experience, and 3.5 BB/9 in the minors won’t get the high value callup in MLB. But, a good problem to have — nice future you’ve got!
Thank you! Idk why I was under the impression Blubaugh may get called up, but I appreciate the clarification!
Ty. Is Torres done? I can get a Rizzo right now
I don’t think he’s toast but it’s not looking promising right now — move on to a hotter hand
Thanks for the read.
In your opinion
Please rank the following bat options or top 2 out of
Pages
Carpenter
Adell
Nootbar
Much appreciated
I’m in favor of Adell leading that group (finally!) with Nootbaar in second.
Hey there. For all Mankind was a very good show, even if the special effects were extremely underwhelming. I mean, even my dog could have done better – and I don’t have a dog! Speaking of Mars, I was talking to a friend a while back about the movie The Martian, and my friend wondered out loud whether it was based on a true story. So… you are not alone regarding a documentary about a settlement on Mars.
No baseball questions for you today. Thanks for the entertainment and the knowledge.
Agree with you on For all Mankind — for a show about space colonization, they sure had / have a lot of Earth-based plots. But the final frontier is not space but humankind the show runners shout as I turn off the channel after watching a thrilling back and forth between Russian and American translators.
Thanks for checking in!
Hi Blair,
I could not wait to write this note or novel to ask you a few questions. Your input is very much appreciated. You and Grey let to my first place finish in 2023. I am forever appreciative!
A: Lineup:
Please review the line up and let me know the areas for improvement. All suggestions on possible players to add would be very much appreciated
C: TAD with Sean Murphy on IL
1B: Paul O’Hearn with Rhys Hoskins as backup
2B: Marcus Semien with Ketel Marte as backup
3B: Ryan McMahon and Luis Rengifo as backup
SS: Jackson Merrill with Luis Rengifo as backup
LF: Lourdes Gurriel with Jarren Duran as backup
CF Cedric Mullins with Jarren Duran and Merrill,
RF: BDLC in RF and Starling Marte
DH: Katel Marte:
SP: Burnes, Skubal, Nola, Wheeler, Cole Ragans and GreyRod
Streamer: Kutter, Cristopher Sanchez, Casey Mize, Crockett and Yariel Rodriguez
IL; Cristian Javier
RP: None
B.Additional Players;
Carlos Correa is coming off IL and is available. Would you pick him up or hold? Would you then waive Rengifo?
C.Pitchers for today;
Note: as always, I am 62+ in innings.
I could have four starters for today:
Greyson Rod on the road vs NYY
Cristopher Sanchez on the road at LAA
Crochet at home vs MINN
YarielRod at home vs KC
Who would you sit if any?
Thanks so much!!!
Martin
Hey Martin! I think you’re right to bring in Correa and move on Rengifo — Correa seems like he’s got his mojo back and Rengifo doesn’t have nearly the same upside.
I’m a little late on the pitchers due to timing but I would have sat YR. I think you still have time before Sanchez plays — he’s a good matchup and I would start him still.
Really appreciate your help!!
Did I drink the cool-aid about Yuiel? Would you cut him?
Thanks!!!!
I think it’s too early to say for certain but I think he’s just a streamer for now — pick up / drop him at your whim
Blair!
What are your thoughts on Beck coming up? What would you expect from him this year?
Do you think Kerkering will take over closing duties this year or at least help out in ratios in SVHD league?
Would you drop any of Morton, Detmers, Singer, Turnbull or Cecconi for any of the following? IP,K,QS,ERA,WHIP,K/BB, SVHD
Olson
Jake Irvin
Falter
Littell
Butto
Assad
Tommy Henry
You were always my pitching guy and I lived and died by your valuable insight and analytics. Not bashing anyone but so far this year, I have been advised by others here to drop Flaherty, Hicks and Fedde and it is not feeling too good right now.
I love reading your in depth responses. You make it make sense and I appreciate that greatly.
Thank you in advance!
I would also love to get your input on Estevez and Jansen is SVHD league. They aren’t bad but not producing any stats.
Jansen 14K 8BB 5SVHD
Estevez 7K and 4SVHD
Is it worth holding onto them or just roll with the hottest guy in the moment?
And what will Turnbull’s roll be in the bullpen after tomorrow’s start? Will he help with SVHD?
I’ll include the below comment response up here.
As for SVHD, I generally give a bit more leeway to “not producing stats” guys because a high K/9 reliever will likely find their way into a Holds position before long. Holds can also be kind of ubiquitous in that you can generally find a Holds guy on the waiver wire at any given time, whereas all closers are of course drafted. So, I’m always in favor of any high K/9 RP on a winning team as a SVHD option, and I don’t get too committed — SAGNOF after all (or, HAGNOF too). For Jansen/Estevez, hold them but move on if they get stagnant.
Beck? Love him. Can never figure out if Sea Change or Morning Phase is my favorite album tho. But you probably want baseball Beck. I mean, the league is littered with stories of people who smashed Triple A balls and then became league average. Whereas it’s the job of the Prospect folx to hype the new guys, it’s my job to say, “There’s no data, and evidence shows that most rookies crap their pants when they make the majors.” See Holliday, Jackson. Always worth a dart throw but don’t sell the farm.
Kekering in a meaningful SVHD position is pretty bold — I wouldn’t put it in his favor.
Hold your current pitchers.
Turnbull hopefully sticks in the rotation — he’s basically never been out of the bullpen in his MLB career so it doesn’t make a ton of sense to move him there. If Turnbull gets sent back to the pen, I wouldn’t hold him and would stream for any pitcher in a good matchup.
Hey great writeup thanks. Im dead last in pitching who should i sit?
1. Gore for 2 @Tex and vs Tor
2.Flaherty vs Cards
3.Ed Cabrera vs Colorado
Sit 1
I think they’re all OK matchups but if you’re required to sit one, I’d lean Cabrera. Good luck!