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So, if you’re keeping a mental note of all the pitchers I don’t like, you might realize from the Anime Grey videos, Julio Urias is one of them. Now, I’m throwing in Walker Buehler. Trevor Bauer’s a big ol’ piece of garbage, and the only person ranking Max Muncy lower than me is Madison Bumgarner. Chris Taylor’s never done nothing for me no matter his position eligibility! I’m going to become the biggest hate spewer in SoCal! I’m going to put on my Vin Scully jersey and tell everyone it’s for Scully from The X Files. Just to insult them! I’m going to go to Dodgers games — fifteen minutes early — just to show them up! I’m going to tell everyone that will listen that Nathan’s hot dogs are better than Dodger dogs! I’m going to tell everyone that Dodgers’ superfan Mary Hart’s legs weren’t that spectacular! I’m going to tell everyone that Dodgers’ superfan Larry King is still alive…on Epstein’s island! I’m gonna tell them Clayton Kershaw isn’t a Hall of Famer and that I once saw Sandy Koufax eat pork! I’m the biggest hater in Los Angeles! But, now, about Walker Buehler. Sigh. I’m not going to run through why I would never draft a top starter. I wouldn’t, but this post isn’t about that. Wrote about that across 15,000 words in the top 20 starters for 2022 fantasy baseball. I won’t be drafting a top starter or Walker Buehler, but I can dislike Walker Buehler on his own. Brave! So, what can we expect from Walker Buehler for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
You know that move when you put your hand over your mouth and yawn, but it doesn’t stop everyone from knowing that you’re yawning, because you’re so loud and histrionic about it? That’s me looking at Walker Buehler’s Statcast page. It’s not terrible, but when you find a starter going at 15th overall. Overall! Not 15th starter, but overall. You really want to see some straight butter that has just rolled off the actress that’s playing Pamela Anderson in Pam & Tommy. You wanna see a top strikeout rate. You don’t want to see a guy using smoke and mirrors. You wanna see a smoke show!
Focus your eyes in on Walker Buehler’s xBAs. A .240-ish xBA on ~60% of his pitches is Anthony DeSclafanish; it’s the Means. Most like John Means, and around the mid-point of all MLB xBAs. It’s not terrible, but as the third pitcher off the board in leagues? That feels like a joke. Purposely included 2020 in that screenshot. Obviously, there’s sample size issues with 2020 vs. 2021, but even Buehler’s most recent past shows you a pitcher who went from lights-out to reaching out in the dark, hoping he strikes out guys with solid if not spectacular stuff. Kinda like Mary Hart’s legs. Snap!
So, about that stuff. If Walker Buehler puts up decent numbers, and his stuff doesn’t lose any miles per hour, then we might not be here, sobbing over Doritos and people overdrafting Buehler. How’sever, I can’t say that. At least not without my fingers crossed, and my fingers don’t cross due to too much typing! Buehler’s fastball was down more than a mile per hour, and his slider and curve. Maybe he just found a better velocity to throw at that feels more comfortable for him. He still chucks the speed ball at 95.5 MPH, so I don’t want to make too much of this, but the stuff being down and the results? Well, that’s the kind of thing that puts up the antennae (I have two).
If Walker Buehler was being drafted around the 10th to 15th pitcher off the board, I’d miss him with this vitriol. Feels similar to Lucas Giolito last year being overdrafted, and how now we can get Giolito in the 5th round again, where I expect Buehler to be next year. If Buehler were in the 50s overall in drafts this year, I would be in on him. So what he has a 9.2 K/9 and 3.57 xFIP, I’d say. He’s only going around 50th overall, I posit. So what he had the 19th best K%, he was only being drafted as the 15th best SP, I’d say. So what that the only thing he shares with Robbie Ray is a tailor, I’d think. So what, so what, so what! I’ll tell you what, Buehler is being drafted as the 3rd best starter, and that’s wildly overrated. So, stamp him schmohawk! (I like to think the last “So” is me telling So Taguchi to stamp him.)
