Boy, I’m really phoning it in with this week’s article title. Anyway, it’s the last full week before we get a midseason breather for the All Star Break, so it’s a fairly busy one. Tiers 1 and 2 look like more fun than an Alabama Slammahamma. Don’t bother Googling that, I just made it up. It sounds like a real thing though, doesn’t it? Tier 3 isn’t quite the juicy peach we had a week ago, but some options may be on your waiver wire. Tier 4 gives us a bountiful bouquet of bodaciousness, with a vast array of not-horrible starters that have decent matchups. Danny Duffy climbing out of the bottom tier might be optimistic, but his duo of AL Central opponents are enticing. There are even a couple of Tier 5 guys that might be of deep league interest, but…we’ve officially hit the Tommy Milone point in the season. Will he really get two starts? Everyone hopes not. Don’t even talk to me about his minor league numbers, they’re always good. He’s the epitome of a Quad-A pitcher. Even in what would be his second start against the Mets who can’t hit a lick against lefties, I’d rather just run into the corner of a groin-high kitchen table and call it a day.

Tier 1
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Clayton Kershaw (L) @SD 26th 24.1 LAA 24th 19.9
Justin Verlander OAK 7th 21.9 DET 26th 21.7
Gerrit Cole OAK 7th 21.9 DET 26th 21.7
Aaron Nola @NYM 18th 21.4 @MIA 25th 23.3
Jose Berrios KC 30th 19.3 TB 24th 23

 

  • Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – In his last start, Kershaw went six innings for the first time since his return from the DL on June 23rd. He gave up two runs to the Pirates and didn’t walk any, but also struck out only two. Meh, whatever, you’ll take it as long as he’s healthy. He had a pitch count of 90 pitches or six innings, and the six inning limit happened to come first. “The reigns are off” for the next start, as apparently Kershaw is a pack mule for Dave Roberts. The timing couldn’t be better as he lines up for two starts, one of which comes against the Padres. The Angels also have poor splits against lefties, so there’s that as well.

Tier 2
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Trevor Bauer CIN 11th 20.9 NYY 4th 23.2
Eduardo Rodriguez (L) TEX 10th 22.8 TOR 17th 21.2
Patrick Corbin (L) @COL 4th 22 @ATL 2nd 19.6

 

  • Trevor Bauer (CLE) – Not much to see in Tier 2 this week. Bauer stands out as a name that would/could/should be in Tier 1, but a pair of tough matchups kicks him down a notch. They call that the Bizarro Emeril. MAB!! That’s his catchphrase. It’s “bam” backwards, you see. And yes, of course Bizarro Emeril has a mustache. They both reek of garlic, however. The Reds tied with the Astros for the highest team wOBA in June at .352, and I don’t (or shouldn’t) have to tell you how frightening the Yankees lineup can be. Bauer has been so good you can’t afford to sit him, of course. Just consider yourself warned by a smelly chef with a mustache.

Tier 3
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Mike Clevinger CIN 11th 20.9 NYY 4th 23.2
Kyle Hendricks @SF 13th 23.9 @SD 29th 25.8
Sean Manaea (L) @HOU 3rd 20.6 @SF 25th 22.3
Garrett Richards SEA 9th 20.3 @LAD 3rd 21.6
Jhoulys Chacin @MIA 25th 23.3 @PIT 23rd 19.6

 

  • Jhoulys Chacin (MIL) – I had a hard time deciding whether I wanted to push Chacin up to Tier 3 or leave him in Tier 4, but here we are. He will undoubtedly burn me for any optimism. Whenever you expect Jhoulys Chacin to actually help, you often get Ghoulys Chacin. That’s the alter ego of Jhoulys Chacin – the one who destroys your ratios for a given week. He’s quite ghoulish. Ghoulys Chacin. He’s basically just fastballs and sliders these days and still issues too many walks, yet he has a 3.63 ERA on the year. Does he deserve worse? Yes. His HR/FB% is 6.5%, roughly half the MLB average, so regression looms. This week he pitches is spacious Marlins and PNC Parks however, which is what might stave off that regression for another week.

Tier 4
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
CC Sabathia (L) @BAL 28th 21.6 @CLE 5th 19.2
Jose Urena MIL 10th 25.2 PHI 17th 26.2
Ivan Nova WSH 15th 21.2 MIL 10th 25.2
Chase Anderson @MIA 25th 23.3 @PIT 23rd 19.6
Danny Duffy (L) @MIN 21st 23.7 @CHW 22nd 26.6
Mike Minor (L) @BOS 14th 23.4 @BAL 28th 21.6
Jeremy Hellickson @PIT 23rd 19.6 @NYM 18th 21.4
Marcus Stroman @ATL 14th 20.2 @BOS 1st 18.9

 

  • Jeremy Hellickson (WSH) – The Helix is back, and hopefully you missed that memo since he was skewered and roasted over a spit by the Marlins in his second start back from the DL. He gave up nine runs (eight earned) in just four innings. Woof. Digging through his game logs provides a bit of clarity his season-long stats don’t show – his inability to pitch deep into games. An astute Razzball commenter mentioned in my Top 100 Starters recently that the Nats don’t let him see an order a third time, which seems wise. His first time through the order: 0.76 ERA. Second time? 5.09 ERA. He’s only tossed 5.1 innings the third time through the order, but has a fancy 11.81 ERA to show for it. He’s got solid matchups this week, but don’t get your hopes too high.

Tier 5
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Andrew Cashner NYY 4th 23.2 TEX 19th 25.2
Chris Bassitt @HOU 5th 20.1 @SF 13th 23.9
Tyler Anderson (L) ARI 9th 23.7 SEA 11th 21.5
Mike Leake @LAA 8th 20 @COL 20th 23.8
Anthony DeSclafani @CLE 6th 21.3 @STL 16th 22.7
Luis Perdomo LAD 3rd 21.6 CHC 2nd 20.8
Eric Lauer (L) LAD 13th 21.7 CHC 8th 21.8
Francisco Liriano (L) @TB 15th 24 @HOU 3rd 20.6
Corey Oswalt PHI 17th 26.2 WSH 15th 21.2
Trevor Williams WSH 15th 21.2 MIL 10th 25.2
Matt Andriese DET 26th 21.7 @MIN 22nd 21.3
Tommy Milone (L) @PIT 12th 21.1 @NYM 29th 26
Brian Johnson (L) TEX 10th 22.8 TOR 17th 21.2

 

  • Tyler Anderson (COL) – MISTER ANDERSON!! I haven’t seen The Matrix in years, yet to this day whenever I see someone with the last name Anderson I have to say it like Agent Smith. It might be peculiar to see a starter with solid numbers like Anderson’s (3.90 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 8.32 K/9, 2.92 BB/9) mired in the mucky muck of Tier 5. He’s even gone 16 shutout innings over his last two starts with a friggin 17:3 K:BB ratio! Well, this week will be a real test for Anderson. Both of his starts come at home, where he has a 4.37 ERA on the season, and both offenses he faces are strong. The Mariners and DBacks each had top-10 wOBA’s in June. If he can escape both matchups with quality starts, maybe he really is The One. I’m going to stay away if I can.

*All starters are projected for two starts as of Friday evening.

 

 

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken

   
  1. Don'tBeAHader says:
    (link)

    What is up with the latest version of J.Zimmerman? Is this somewhat sustainable or better off with high-wire acts like D.German?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Don’tBeAHader: I’ll be doing a deeper dive on him in tomorrow’s Top 100, but he’s got my attention. He’s throwing a ton of curves and sliders and I’d be buying in all but very shallow formats. German has terrible walk issues and we know that’s one thing we don’t have to worry about Zimmy killing us with.

  2. stevie says:
    (link)

    Good stuff! My league shows two starts for Wheeler, Suarez, Pivetta, and Archer’s coming back. Thoughts on these guys?
    Wheeler: Phi, Was
    Suarez: Cubs, Oak
    Pivetta: @Mets, @Mia
    Archer: Det, @Min

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @stevie: I don’t think Suarez or Pivetta get two starts, but things are looking up for Archer. The matchups are good for him but I’d try to stay away since it’s his first start from a lengthy absence. He’d slot into Tier 4, and that’s where Wheeler should have been as well, I must have left him off accidentally. I’d go with Archer over Wheeler if I had to choose.

  3. Matthew Macdonald says:
    (link)

    SON has Rich Hill having 2 starts. I read he is back for his scheduled Tuesday start. Would he get his 2 starts?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Matthew Macdonald: He’s no lock for his Tuesday start just yet, especially given his track record. The Dodgers also want to get Buehler back into the rotation for a start before the ASB so if I had to guess right now I’d say it’s unlikely Hill gets two starts.

      • Matthew Macdonald says:
        (link)

        @Dokken: ok thanks. Great write up. You are always bang on the 2 starts

      • keith o branstetter says:
        (link)

        @Dokken: LA said yesterday Hill is starting Tuesday.

  4. JB says:
    (link)

    Thank you for the hard work. CBS has Pivetta pitching on July 10 @ NYM, which should put his next start @ MIA on July 15…and Stroman @ ATL on July 11, which would mean he doesn’t get a second start this week. There’s also a sneaky potential two start pitcher, Joe Musgrove. He’s on the DL due to a finger infection, but due to return July 10 v WAS, and a second start either in the late game of a double header on July 14 v MIL or the July 15 game v MIL. Is that what you’re seeing on those guys?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @JB: Pivetta isn’t scheduled until Thursday. Stroman could still start Sunday. Musgrove looks to be back Tuesday but it was pretty murky when I did the write up.

  5. Skinny Mike says:
    (link)

    What about Wheeler, Tanaka, and Suarez? Did none of these guys make the 5-tier cut or do you not believe that any of them are likely to actually make 2 starts this week?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Skinny Mike: I somehow misplaced Wheeler but he’ll get two starts, I’d put him in Tier 4. It does look like Tanaka will be back Tuesday, he’d be Tier 4 also. Don’t think Suarez gets the second start to keep Cueto on regular rest.

  6. Paul says:
    (link)

    I don’t see Tommy Milone anywhere as a potential call up for the nats… what is your source on this?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Paul: I feel like some of these teams change their rotation every day. Anyway, it doesn’t look like Milone has a shot for multiple starts anymore but might still get one later in the week…maybe. I’d stay away regardless.

  7. Teddy says:
    (link)

    Slegers? I’m rolling with him over Minor.

    • Chris from Detroit says:
      (link)

      He should start 2 this week too right??

      • Dokken

        Dokken says:
        (link)

        @Chris from Detroit: I replied to this earlier but apparently it didn’t post so I apologize for the delay. I’d still go with Minor myself, not much faith in Slegers. Understand wanting to avoid Boston though. MN wants to get Santana a start before the ASB so he might steal Slegers second start, but otherwise he should get two.

  8. Chris from Detroit says:
    (link)

    What about Julio Teheran? Isn’t he starting twice this week?!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Chris from Detroit: For now it looks like he should, but he’s deep into the murky depths of Tier 5.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *