If there’s one thing Carlos Martinez loves more than baseball, it’s porn. He and I have that in common (go ahead and Google “Carlos Martinez porn” if you want to find the related article(s), but I cannot be held responsible for the entirety of the search results), and that’s why I respect him. Thusly, I’m excited that not only do we finally get him back, it’s as a Week 10 double dipper. Sadly it’s in the place of where we expected Alex Reyes to be (wasn’t that fun while it lasted?), but we’ve gotta find our silver linings somewhere. Following an insane Week 9 where we had more Texas two steppers than any week prior, we’re back to relative normalcy here in Week 10. Tiers 1-2 are pretty slim as usual, but you feel really good about every option. Tier 3 has some fellas that might just be on your waiver wire if you’re in a shallower league, and I’d feel comfortable using every one of them. Tier 4 is surprisingly usable as well thanks to some good matchups all around. I’m not totally sure Danny Duffy deserves Tier 4 instead of Tier 5, but his matchups aren’t the worst and I’d rather throw him out than anything residing in Tier 5. Let’s dive in!
Tier 1 | ||||||
Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Luis Severino | @DET | 21st | 20.7 | NYM | 6th | 20.3 |
Corey Kluber | MIL | 8th | 24.2 | @DET | 21st | 20.7 |
James Paxton (L) | @HOU | 5th | 21.3 | @TB | 12th | 24.1 |
Carlos Martinez | MIA | 29th | 23.9 | @CIN | 24th | 21.4 |
- Carlos Martinez (STL) – C-Mart is working his way back from a lengthy stay on the disabled list thanks to a lat injury. In what appears to have been his final tune-up, he tossed four innings for the Double-A Cardinals and hit 99 on the gun. While that indicates to me that he’s healthy, I’m not sure how much stamina he’ll have in that first start against the Marlins. The good news is that it’s be Marlins, so if he can just go five innings he’ll have a good shot at a win with some solid ratios. He also gets the Reds in his second start, making the relative risk of a pitcher fresh off the disabled list worth it.
Tier 2 | ||||||
Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Eduardo Rodriguez (L) | DET | 8th | 17.5 | CHW | 25th | 27 |
Kyle Hendricks | PHI | 19th | 26.6 | PIT | 13th | 19.2 |
Dallas Keuchel (L) | SEA | 7th | 19.8 | @TEX | 14th | 25.5 |
- Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – How do you end up in Tier 2 as a starter when you’re only striking out 6.92 batters per nine innings? Bribery. Also, consistency. And a 3.19 ERA/1.06 WHIP over 67.2 innings doesn’t hurt either. The ever stoic control artist has seven quality starts in 11 tries, and could add a pair of quality starts to his total this week against the Phillies and Pirates at home. You might cringe at the 4.41 FIP, but he’s been abnormally homer prone this season and I see no reason why that won’t regress back to his normal rates. That would land him closer to his 3.82 FIP moving forward, which isn’t a #2 fantasy SP but makes him very worth rolling out for two start weeks.
Tier 3 | ||||||
Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Dylan Bundy | @NYM | 6th | 20.3 | @TOR | 17th | 24.7 |
Sean Manaea (L) | @TEX | 14th | 25.5 | KC | 11th | 21.2 |
Ross Stripling | @PIT | 13th | 19.2 | ATL | 11th | 20.6 |
Fernando Romero | CHW | 10th | 24 | LAA | 5th | 20 |
Joe Musgrove | LAD | 18th | 22.1 | @CHC | 3rd | 20.2 |
- Ross Stripling (LAD) – It’s hard to believe what Stripling has continued to do since he returned to starting. He’s been hotter than a Texas bathroom stall on hot chili night, with a 1.24 ERA/0.97 WHIP over 29 IP, 12.4 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, and a microscopic 17.4% hard contact rate. He’s been inducing more pop-ups than Stormy Daniels in a hotel room, with a 19.5% IFFB% that would rank fourth in MLB if he had enough starting innings to qualify. Pop-ups are a sneaky way to keep your BABIP low, and everything Stripling has been doing has been working so far. I’m certainly not sold that he’s an ace all of the sudden, but you’ve gotta roll him out for a two start week while he’s hot even in spite of what could be a tough Braves matchup.
Tier 4 | ||||||
Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Kyle Freeland (L) | @CIN | 13th | 21.7 | ARI | 10th | 25.3 |
Zack Godley | @SF | 14th | 24.9 | @COL | 26th | 23.7 |
CC Sabathia (L) | @DET | 4th | 22.9 | @NYM | 30th | 26.9 |
Julio Teheran | @SD | 28th | 26.3 | @LAD | 18th | 22.1 |
Danny Duffy (L) | @LAA | 21st | 19.9 | @OAK | 27th | 24.4 |
Jose Urena | @STL | 20th | 23.2 | SD | 28th | 26.3 |
Nathan Eovaldi | @WSH | 7th | 20.1 | SEA | 16th | 20 |
Jake Odorizzi | CHW | 10th | 24 | LAA | 5th | 20 |
- Jose Urena (MIA) – What is that you say? Jose Urena is not good? The Miami Marlins are not good? If none of these things are good why would I expect good results? Well, first: shut up. Second, he is not that bad. His 1.17 WHIP is actually pretty decent, and his ERA indicators all have him under a 4.00 ERA despite his actual 4.41 mark. He also happens to get two starts this week against bottom-third offenses in St. Louis and San Diego, and that is where most of the rich creamy fantasy nougat comes from here. Matt Carpenter is finally heating up, and that makes the Cardinals matchup scarier than it used to be. That said, getting the Friars at home with their massive strikeout rate is glorious. It’s a little bit of a slop play, I’ll grant you that, but in a deeper league I’d roll with it.
Tier 5 | ||||||
Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Clayton Richard (L) | ATL | 1st | 17.3 | MIA | 28th | 21.1 |
Brad Keller | @LAA | 5th | 20 | @OAK | 15th | 23.2 |
Marco Estrada | NYY | 2nd | 23.3 | BAL | 27th | 25.1 |
Mike Fiers | NYY | 2nd | 23.3 | CLE | 4th | 22.8 |
Lucas Giolito | @MIN | 22nd | 22.1 | @BOS | 1st | 18.3 |
David Hess | @NYM | 6th | 20.3 | @TOR | 17th | 24.7 |
Sal Romano | COL | 26th | 23.7 | STL | 20th | 23.2 |
Zach Eflin | @CHC | 3rd | 20.2 | MIL | 8th | 24.2 |
Matt Moore (L) | OAK | 27th | 24.4 | HOU | 5th | 21.3 |
- Clayton Richard (SD) – Ok, so if you thought Jose Urena was a slop play, I present to you: Clayton Richard. But guess what? Ol’ Clay Dick has actually been really good! Over his last 36.1 innings (5 GS) he has a 3.22 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 1.2 BB/9. However, there isn’t much in his pitch deployment to indicate that he’s really changed anything that warrants these numbers. Hence, his place down here in the mucky muck of Tier 5. The Atlanta start is particularly scary as they simply crush lefties. If he can get through that start without a total blowup, the Marlins matchup later in the week lines up as a very positive one.
All starters are projected for two starts as of Friday evening.
You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken