In an NFBC 15-team league where there are no pickups in-season, I already plan on drafting Trevor Story, and it’s only November, and this is coming from a guy who doesn’t know what he’s doing next weekend.  How’s that for excitement, Spanish beach?  Hmm, maybe that makes more sense if I leave it as playa.  Here’s what Prospect Mike said recently, “(Story went) 20/20 in Double and Triple-A as a 22-year-old with a decent average…knocking on the door at Coors with only Jose Reyes in his way?  Gimme.  The strikeout rate has always been a concern for him, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take with his offensive upside at shortstop.  2016 should see him in the majors, and depending on how quickly the Rockies unload Reyes (or he gets injured) it could be a quick stay in Triple-A for Trevor.  Now if we could only unload Grey.”  Geez, what did I do to this guy?  I’ll go Mike one better, Reyes won’t be playing for the Rockies by May.  What makes me so confident?  For the past three years, Reyes hasn’t made it out of April without an injury.  It was a solid career, but doode’s so toast that Wonder Bread calls him up for a booty call.  Anyway, what can we expect from Trevor Story for 2016 fantasy baseball?

To borrow from Michael Jackson, what’s His-Story and can I fit a few more child stars in my bed?  Okay, first part applies a bit more.  Story was selected out of high school, you know, that school you forgot to go to, and jumped into the discussion of top talents in all of the minors after a huge year at Single-A.  Then the wheels fell off in 2013 and he started swinging and missing a lot.  So bad his friends were like, “Move to Holland, you windmill.”  In High-A in his 2nd year, he struck out 33% of the time.  I just grabbed the first high-strikeout hitter I could think of from the recesses of my brain and looked up his K-rate in High-A.  Chris Carter struck out 26.3% of the time there.  This is one area you don’t want to beat Chris Carter, and creating classic sci-fi shows is the only other area you can’t beat Chris Carter.  Story came back with a 34.6% K-rate in Double-A in 2014 and I’m starting to wonder why the Rockies kept promoting him.  Oh, I know, his 20/20 ability.  Last year, there were gains in Ks, thankfully.  He only struck out 24.5% of the time.  This is still more than Carter (22.8) at the same level.  If Story were 25 years old, I think we might be able to write him off, but he’s only going to be 23 this year (all year, crazy how that works, right?), and his gains last year give me hope he could keep his K-rate under 30% in the majors.  30% is still not good, but it’s not 35% or greater as it seemed to be headed, which would’ve rendered him unusable.  30% K-rate still takes us to around a .230-.240, but as previously mentioned 20/20 with a .240 average at shortstop is more than acceptable.  Plus (oh, yeah, Grey’s adding on!), he will play in Coors where Nick Hundley went from a .240 hitter to a .300 hitter, so I’m intrigued, y’all!  I’m guessing Reyes will be gone or injured by May, then the Rockies will drag their feet for a month, then Story will get his shot in June.  For 2016, I’ll give him the line of 29/12/36/.232/13 in 350 ABs with a chance here for a ton more because A) Coors B) Upside C) There’s no C.

 
  1. Connor says:
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    Todd Hundley? What year is it?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Year One AS, After Selig

      • Baezaworldseries says:
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        @Grey: Todd Hundley did have 40 bombs with the Mets once. How many would that be in Coors?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          137 HRs

  2. Left Hangs Lower says:
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    Is he someone helped by OBP leagues?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, maybe at some point, but wouldn’t count on it this year if he plays

  3. Right Hangs Higher says:
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    Hasn’t Story had trouble adjusting to each new level? Wouldn’t we see more of the same when he debuts in the majors, making 2016 an epic disaster on the order of Shelley Winters revealing her figure in The Poseidon Adventure?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      HA…Shelley Winters had a dynamite figure in every movie, man, c’mon…

    • Left Hangs Lower says:
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      @Right Hangs Higher:

      My brother!

      Just noticed your username :)

  4. Mike says:
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    Grey,

    Love your stuff!

    I just joined a dynasty league… my team is basically Tulo, Agon, Madbum and no one under the age of 32.

    What type of building block hitter would you target with Madbum?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Correa?

  5. SwaggerJackers says:
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    Is there anyone else the Rockies could play at SS if Reyes is out?

    Descalso maybe?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Maybe Weiss puts himself out there… Adames and Descalso, but it doesn’t make them good

    • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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      @SwaggerJackers: hahahahahahahah

  6. Domenic Decocco says:
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    Grey, what’s you take on 5 keepers from this list? I realize some of these are dumps, but just putting the list out there for kicks.
    Votto, Dan Murphy, Longo, C. Seager, J Upton, Blackmon, Choo, Peralta, Pujols, Piscotty, Eaton, Bour, Hamels, Kimbrel, Wacha, Liriano, Severino, D. Salazar, Carrasco.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Votto, Longo, Upton, Pujols, Seager…Hard to see the trees when you put a forest of guys out there for kicks

      • Domenic Decocco says:
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        @Grey: Just wanted a broad stroke.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, but it’s easy to overlook guys when you list everyone

        • SwaggerJackers says:
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          @Domenic Decocco: Choo is a keeper in OBP only leagues. If you have any other stats besides OBP, Choo is not a keeper option. :)

  7. weas says:
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    Hey Gray, what are your thoughts on Joc Pederson in 2016? His Steamer line is 87/26/65/14/.228, are you at all bullish on him for those projections?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @weas: I’m gonna like him and go over him soon

      • weas says:
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        @Grey: Thanks dude!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  8. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    With Crispie signing with the Sox, somebody in that outfield is getting platooned against lefties…..or Ortiz will be….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, JBJ

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: I’m not sure he hit lefties pretty well. I sort of hope they give Bradley a real shot to play everyday.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He feels like the odd man out, but lefties come up only once every ten days and maybe Bradley hits a few, maybe someone else sits… It’s like the Diamondbacks Peralta last year, he sat against a few but still had a full season of ABs

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Yeah the mostly likely scenario is he takes at bats from everyone. They should be taking at bats from Ortiz, he’s atrocious against LHP.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, and he likely will on occassion

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @J-FOH: Maybe, that’s Smokey’s thought too, but I don’t see them playing Young every day in RF, or Mookie getting moved there. I have a feeling Bradley sticks around this year.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Krispie’s not an everyday player…No reason to trade JBJ if it’s to make room for Young…

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: Agreed and they have a need for a good defensive rightfielder at Fenway. Rusney has no shot of ever playing there.

                I’m holding out hope they trade Pedroia, move Mookie back to second and JBJ becomes the everyday centerfielder. Zero chance it happens but I hold out hope.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Zero chance on the trade prolly, but Pedroia getting injured and that happening has a more than zero chance

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Ralph Lifshitz: obviously krispie doesnt play every day, that was assumed when they signed him. I think they sign another OF too, just a hunch. Wait, so you think Rusney is garbage?

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @J-FOH: Yeah I’m not sold that he’s ever going to be more than a 4th of 5th OF on your fantasy team. But my point was that in real baseball terms Rusney isn’t a good enough fielder to be trusted in RF at Fenway on a regular basis. Looks like a guy who hits 7th in your lineup, is inconsistent in the field, and shows flashes of brilliance.

                I hope I’m wrong.

  9. ScreechOwl says:
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    Ah, it’s one of those articles that make me think, “Hmm, there’s a player I don’t have.”

    Just like the article I read on Shohei Otani. That one made me think, “Hmm, I’d like to own that player, but I can’t because he isn’t available in Yahoo leagues yet.” Fair enough. I’ll have to try to get him when he appears.

    This one, though, makes me think, “Hmm, someone else in my league already has this guy. So, let’s make like a bad refrigerator and produce some sour grapes.”

    Then, “That’s waaaaaaay too much striking out, even for a guy who can hit. I’d never own someone like that, would I? I mean, there was Adam Dunn back in the day, but he was a proven commodity, and this is a young prospect with no real track record.”

    Finally, “Yep, that’s how I’m going to comfort myself. Too many strikeouts. I don’t have anyone like that on my team. OR DO I?????”

    Then the camera crew filming my life cuts to a shot of Javier Baez looking shifty-eyed. DUN DUN DUN!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha

  10. Ante GALIC says:
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    Hey Grey!

    Sorry for showing up late for the party. Was busy with some “stuff” earlier. What did I miss?

    Nice story on Story. Not in a re-draft, but 2016 could be the year to draft all Rox hitters.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like the idea of all Rockies hitters on all of my teams every year

      • SwaggerJackers says:
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        @Grey: Except Reyes. ;)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Well, yeah, him too

  11. MB says:
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    Grey, I need a catcher. Is trading Justin Turner for nick hundley or yadier molina a good idea or should I aim higher? 5×5 roto. Need avg.

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Bleh, why do you need a catcher?

      • MB says:
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        @Grey: Sorry this is dynasty. 15 teams 2 C. Have Tom Murphy and Sal Perez.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Who will be available in the draft? No starters?

          • MB says:
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            @Grey: Nah no one. But maybe murphy will be the starter. Thanks for making me think level-headed and for your time

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem, Turner for Hundley or Molina isn’t awful, but it’s not great either

  12. Running Frog says:
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    Morning from North North Korea, Grey…

    With Donnie Baseball gone, what’s your over/under on PAs for Alex Guerrero this year?

    In a salary cap dynasty league, where Miggy can be signed for 3, 4, or 5 years at a flat rate per year, and will probably go at a discount based on finally having his first injury, would you still only bid a 3-yr or lock in for 4 or 5?

    Most importantly, have you finished The Shield???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Morning, Frog! 210 PAs for Guerrero…3-year…I finished The Shield, so good… I loved the final season, had no real problems with it…

      • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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        @Grey: the end is great, Mackey no longer has any kind of even semi-legitimate reason to be out going to war in the street, but he goes to anyway.

  13. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey what minor leaguer should I take at number 15?

    Berrios? Doubt he will be there
    J.p. Crawford might be there
    Nomar Manzara also doubtful he’ll be there
    A. J. Reed?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Berrios

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        Grey

        The only one left from that list is Crawford. If he is there I’ll probably grab him. But when my pick comes around again at 18 this is my list of minor leaguers I’m looking at:

        AJ Reed
        Jesse Winker
        Robert Stephenson
        Josh Bell
        Amen Hanson

        Who should I get?

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