Top Dynasty Keepers: A Royal And Two Snakes

Whether you are a long-time dynasty player or new to the format, it is not too hard to figure out the top players. Everyone will be after those players and you should be able to get your fair share of them.

But the difference between winning and losing is finding the players in the late rounds or off the waiver wire who may have a breakout season. While the baseball season only weeks away, dynasty league owners are gearing up for their drafts or scouring the waiver wire to find possible hidden gems.

The Case

Today we are going to look at three players who could provide a spark to your pitching staff. One of the players in Kansas City Royals starter Brady Singer while the other two – Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson – are battling for a spot in the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation. Nelson enters the season as the 8th-ranked prospect in the Arizona system while Jameson is ranked 9th.

Singer is the more established player as he is entering his fourth season with the Royals and is coming off a solid season. In fact, he is currently rostered in 85 percent of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

Jameson and Nelson, however, are basically being ignored by fantasy owners. Jameson is rostered in only 0.8% of ESPN leagues and 5% of Yahoo leagues and Nelson is rostered in 0.5% of ESPN leagues and 2% of Yahoo leagues. Arizona selected both Jameson and Nelson in the 2019 draft, nabbing Jameson out of Ball State in the first round and Nelson out of Oregon State one round later.

Let’s take a look at the three pitchers.

The Players

Brady Singer

As a high school player in Florida, Brady Singer caught the attention of major league scouts and was drafted in the second round of the 2015 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. But Singer chose to attend the University of Florida instead, and during his three-year career with the Gators, he went 23-10 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, and a K/9 rate of 8.9 with a K/BB rate of 3.96. Singer was outstanding his junior season, going 12-3 with a 2.55 ERA, 0.938 WHIP, and a 9.1 K/9 rate, and 5.18 K/BB rate.

The Royals selected Singer in the first round of the MLB draft with the 18th overall selection. It didn’t take long for Singer to move through the minors. He joined the Royals during the 2020 COVID season and has been with the parent club the past two seasons except for two starts at Triple-A Omaha in 2021 and three starts there last season.

Up and Down

Like many young pitchers, Singer has gone through a host of ups and downs during his time with the Royals. After going 4-5 with a 4.06 ERA in 2020, the Royals believed he would be able to be a key contributor on the staff in 2021. But instead of building on his rookie season, Singer struggled throughout the 2021 campaign, posting a 5-10 record with a 4.91 ERA and 1.551 WHIP. The only really good news was the fact that he increased his K/9, but that also came with an increase in his BB/9 rate.

But Singer finally showed why he was a first-round pick during the 2022 season. Despite playing for a Royals team that struggled most of the season, he went 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.141 ERA. Helping him have so much success was a career-best BB/9 rate of 2.1, a full 1.6 BB/9 lower than his 2021 season average.

Inside the Numbers

Singer features two pitches – a sinker and slider with the occasional changeup and four-seam fastball mixed in. In 2021, opposing batters had a .325 batting average against the sinker with a .459 SLG. But the xBA was only .269 and the xSLG was .415. Against his slider hitters had a .214 average and .382 SLG, while the xBA and xSLG were .246 and .388 respectively.

Look at his numbers above from last season. Unlike 2021, hitters struggled against both the sinker and slider last year. And unlike 2021, there was no wide variance between the batting average and xBA and slugging and xSLG.

Drey Jameson

Jameson joined the Diamondbacks for a cup of coffee last season, getting four late season starts. In 24.1 innings, he allowed only 20 hits and went 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.110 WHIP. If you look at his minor league career, you would be a bit surprised with those numbers.

During his three-year career in the minors, Jameson went 12-19 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.392 WHIP. In 255 innings of work, he allowed 264 hits and walked 3.2 batters per nine innings. But he also struck out 10.2 batters per nine innings thanks to a mid-90s fastball and hard sinker and a slider that comes in about 10 mph slower than those two other pitches.

Inside the Numbers

His slider is a very effective third pitch. Batters had a 46% whiff rate against it and managed only a .105 batting average and .263 slugging percentage against it.

Overall, the strikeout numbers Jameson has displayed in the minors and with the Diamondbacks aren’t surprising. At Ball State, Jameson had a solid career, going 13-5 with a 3.52 ERA. In 163.2 innings, he allowed only 128 hits while striking out 13.4 batters per nine innings.

Ryne Nelson

Like Jameson, Nelson got a taste of the majors last season for the Diamondbacks, making three starts late in the season, going 1-1 with an impressive 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. Opposing hitters struggled mightily against Nelson as he allowed only nine hits in 18.1 innings of work with six walks while striking out 16.

Unlike Jameson, Nelson has had more success down on the farm, going 17-10 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.258 WHIP. In 271 innings of work, he had a K/9 rate of 10.5 and a BB/9 rate of 3.2. Not bad for a pitcher who was used mostly as a reliever at Oregon State.

With the Beavers Nelson appeared in 48 games, only five of which were starts. While he was only 6-6- with a 4.25 ERA, he struck out 14 batters per nine innings but with a pretty ugly 5.3 BB/9 rate.

Inside the Numbers

Nelson can fire the ball, featuring a four-seam fastball that averages just under 95 mph. He also features a curveball and slider and throws the occasional curve.

As you can see, opposing hitters struggled against Nelson’s fastball, hitting only .111 against it with a .311 SLG.

The Verdict

The Easy Choice

Singer is not going to be found off the waiver wire in most leagues, not when he is rostered at an 85% rate, so if you see him sitting there as a free agent, snag him. Or if he is still available late in your draft then you select him.

I firmly believe that Singer turned the corner last year and the numbers he posted are indicative of the pitcher he will be for the Royals this season and for several years to come. It is hard to predict what someone’s ERA is going to be, but I expect it to fall between the 3.50 and 3.75 range. What I care about is his strikeout and walk rate.

Singer has been pretty consistent during his career with his strikeout rate, so a strikeout per inning should be expected. Meanwhile, I think his 2.1 BB/9 walk rate will be a number he can match again this year, making him a solid pitcher to have on your dynasty staff.

Jameson vs. Nelson

If you can’t snag Singer and/or you are looking for a pitcher with a high upside who may not be quite ready to be a major contributor this year, then Jameson or Nelson could be one of those pitchers you should target. My preference would be to take Jameson, a pitcher I added in two of my dynasty leagues this offseason.

Why Jameson over Nelson? I like the fact that Jameson has been a starter throughout his career since college. He was a standout at Ball State in that role and, while he has not posted great ERA and WHIP numbers in the minors, I like his 10.2 K/9 rate and 3.18 K/BB rate.

And unlike Nelson, Jameson is not reliant on one pitch. He throws his four-seamer at a 34% rate, his sinker 28% of the time and his slider at a 25% rate followed by his change and his curve. Nelson, however, may have a future in the bullpen and not in the starting rotation.

While all three of Nelson’s appearances with the Diamondbacks last season were as a starter, he threw his fastball 69.6 percent of the time – that is the mindset of a reliever with a really good fastball. He only threw his curveball and slider at 13% and 11% of his pitches. He was basically a reliever in college, and while Arizona has used him as a starter in the minors, I don’t think that will be his role moving forward.