Top 100 Outfielders For 2022 Fantasy Baseball: Tommy Boy Edition

This week is a big shuffle-up now that we have more data to go. Injuries are being factored in, players have been pushed down, hot starts are being factored in, and the cream is rising to the top. Of some of that cream, is a couple of Tommys that are surpassing expectations… Holy Schnikes!

Tommy Edman – I’ve been wanting to talk about him for a while now, but wanted to wait until some more data on his batted balls comes in—now we have a bigger sample to look at (that’s what she said!). Edman is hitting the ball well to all fields and has improved his average exit velocity to a new career-high of 89.0 whereas his previous high was 87.5… the skinny boy is growing into his man muscles!

The max velo for Edman is a bit of a mirage because it’s essentially the same as last year, there are just several players underperforming; but, it IS respectable and nice to see the gains he made last year are holding. His plate discipline also passes the eye test and a large part of his success is tied to him identifying and crushing offspeed pitches. The one area of concern (not pictured) is his GB% rate is still over 50%. But, with that sprint speed, he should still get on base at a good clip.

Tommy Pham – The other Tommy. We assumed he was CUTE without the E, cut from the team (like his strip club knife fight) but he got a new lease on life when he was signed by the Reds. Probably a top 5 place for him to land with that park and division even considering the fire sale. Since there is no longer deep talent on the team, he has consistently been hitting in the meat of the lineup. And though he started slow, his under the hood numbers looked like he was going to break out of his slump like a fat guy in a little suit.

Pham’s average exit velo is currently the best of his career, as is his hard-hit rate. Currently sitting at 55.3% Pham trails only players named Judge, Stanton, and Yordan. That’ll play. Most of his power is coming off sitting on fastballs with room to grow and a sparkling 24.7% line drive rate. The one area of concern, most of his whiffs are coming off of breaking balls, so we’ll see how the league adjusts but a career-high walk rate for a guy that’s always had a good walk rate is a great thing to see paired with a .295 xBA.

Taylor Ward – What can I say that I haven’t already? We are watching a real breakout in action. Over the last couple of weeks, Taylor Ward leads the league in nearly every hitting metric: AVG, OBP, SLG, ISO, all of it. That’s the prime rib of breakouts right there. Sure, you could get a good look at a T-bone steak by sticking your head up a bull’s [statcast], but wouldn’t you rather take [Coolwhip]’s word for it?

How about a spray chart? Most of Ward’s power is going to dead center while using the whole field… that’s how you know he’s locked in. Also, he’s maintaining a crisp 25.4% line drive rate paired with a 15.5% barrel rate. He is also posting positive run values on every pitch type. This is a top 20 outfielder, full stop.

Tyler O’Neill – On the other end of the spectrum, O’Neill is not hitting like a top 20 outfielder. His hard-hit rate, SLG (xSLG), and xBA all are looking very pedestrian so far and haven’t shown much improvement yet. The plus side is walk rate and K rate has improved compared to last year along with a barrel rate still north of 10%. These seem to suggest he can come out of it though I think the dead balls are certainly working against his current batted ball profile. “Helen, we’re both in sales…”

Christian Yelich – I am regretting not having at least 1 share of Yelich this year. I thought about it several times but usually passed for pitching in that round. He was definitely a “bargain” this year and is returning solid value. We might never see 40/30 Yelich again but a 30/20+ Yelich could be in the cards. He’s currently in the top 10% of the league in most batted ball metrics and an above-average walk rate paired with GB% back down under 50. Tommy likey.

Bryce Harper – He jumped up quite a bit despite playing with one wing… how long does this last? who knows. But we know what he CAN do and seems to still be doing it to the tune of top 5% in all major metrics with 9 HR and 6 SB… so, party on.

The Board

As always, the individual ranks (and to a degree the dollars) don’t really matter, what’s important are the tiers, and more important than that now—your roster construction. Any outfielder not listed, consider them tier 5.

If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.