*karate chops the air* HiiiiiiiiiiYA!  Chopping down overrated players with the quickness and I’ve set my sights on Tommy Pham.  Speaking of karate, you have to bow if your opponent bows, right?  So, I’d be a World Karate Champion by bowing non-stop with a sneak attack worked in.  They’d call me, Bowing Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and I’d be fierce.  *wavy lines signaling dream sequence*  I bow, opponent bows, I bow again and opponent knocks me out with one kick.  *wavy lines signaling end of dream sequence*  Damn, I can’t even make myself a karate champion in my dreams.  You know what?  I don’t need kay-ROT-té!  I have fantasy baseball!  However, what I don’t have on my fantasy baseball teams this year is Tommy Pham.  “Land mine, right ahead!”  That’s the remake of the Titanic after a nuclear holocaust and someone accidentally merges the Titanic wiki page with Princess Di’s.  By the way, imagine watching Survivor after a nuclear war.  “Um, yeah, so they’re starving, so what?  So am I!”  Am I the only excited for the new season of Survivor?  Prolly, unless a time traveler from 2002 is reading this.  Any hoo!  I didn’t think I was gonna have to write this post, but I see some very smart fantasy baseball people being trip-wired by Pham, so I need to lift the haze.  Illuminate the love story in the genre-bending, The Crying Game, and make the world less Phambiguous.  Ignite a roadside flare in your brain.  So, what can we expect from Tommy Pham for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

Last year, Tommy Pham had the 4th best BABIP at .368.  As the French would say, you have the luck of a man with backpack large enough to cover his baguette in the rain.  Neutral luck, Pham is a .265 hitter.  In Triple-A in 2016, he had a BABIP of .295 and hit .236 with a similar K-rate that he had last year.  Um, yeah, that’s trouble.  Informercial Voice, “Wait, there’s more!”  If he struggles in April or May, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill and Jose Adolis Garcia are lurking behind Pham, just biding their time, just rubbing their fingers together mischievously, just waiting to take over an outfield job.  Informercial Voice, “Wait, there’s more!”  Pham had the sixth highest HR/FB% in the majors last year at 26.7%.  I’m sorry, what?  Who is he, Joey Gallo?  That is a ludicrous number for Pham.  No amount of corrective eye surgery is making Pham a 26.7% HR/FB guy.  He’s going to be falling out of his heels trying to get 16 homers this year.  His speed looks more or less repeatable, but that’s assuming the rest of his troubles don’t haunt him and he loses opportunities to steal.  He didn’t just happen to look like a Quad-A player for the first eleven (!!!) years he was in professional ball to suddenly breakout last year.  The steals could buoy his value, but 16/20/.265 drafted in the top 60 overall?  Take Kiermaier 200 spots later.  Try Lorenzo Cain 30 picks later.  Yo, homey, go with Michael Taylor 200 picks later.  How about Bradley ZimmerManuel MargotTim Anderson?  Ronald ACUNA!  All of these guys will outproduce Tommy Wham!  Bam!  No thank you, Pham! and are going after him.  What’s the attraction with Pham?  I mean, I’ve heard the stories about how he’s A-OK on the “E…new line…FP…new line…T…Uh, is that an oh or zero?  Can you put eye drops in again, I like when strangers touch my eyelids?  Wait, where are you going, eye doctor?  I love Dilated Peoples!  Is that so wrong?!”  So, that’s the attraction?  His eyes are now good?  Y’all are buying into the narrative that he’s a top 15 outfielder because of his eyes?  Wow, that is more ludicrous than the plot to the new movie, Annihilation.  Rather than dining with the Gods on a steady diet of Phambrosia like he’s The Phambino, I’m expecting his owners to feel Phamboozled and disPhambobulated, and I’m not going anywhere near him.

 
  1. Obi-Wan Ginobili says:
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    God am i happy to read this article!!! Grey you making me all sorts of giddy on this fine morning! One of first thing I do…Take a list of 10-20 potential breakout hitters, then run a simple cross check with (BS you not) two stats: last year’s BABIP and last year’s HR/FB Rate. People in my re-draft league this year chatting pre-draft about how Tommy ‘All-in-The’ Phamily is a potential top5 OF. Oh cmon Bobby Brown’s of this fantasy world…Reeeeeeelax!

  2. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Great article, loved it.

    a. In day 2 of this training, and man! Some of our participants are as thick as a brick.

    b. We will using biometrics for this verification – iris scan and ten finger prints. It’s the way of the future to eliminate registration fraud.

    c. Saw Ohtani get a base hit up the middle. The announcers praising him like he was Babe Ruth or shades of Ichiro in shades. Looked more like 10% of Pete Rose so we can call him Pee Wee Charlie Hustle.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Ante GALIC:

      A. Jethro Tull, “I may make you feel but I can’t make you think” Thisck as a Brick.

      C. Fifty shades of Rose Ohtani?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Thanks! A. Haha Sounds like every job training B. Wow, Minority Report was right C. Haha, I know

  3. Justin says:
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    His babip should be 30 points lower but his flyball percentage should actually increase according to streamer. His power numbers should improve while average has some regression.

    • Justin says:
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      Babip according to streamer, flyball percentage according to me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: Guess we’ll see

      • Justin says:
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        @Grey:

        Unless Tommy’s eyes regress than we won’t see

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I see what you did there

  4. Elect Jimmy Carter says:
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    I just have one small push back. I read somewhere that he was legally blind in that eye. I don’t know how blind “legally blind” is and I’m not sure how they were able to fix a legally blind eye and since they did, why they didn’t do it a long time ago.

    • Old School Brother says:
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      @Elect Jimmy Carter: I can catch a pokemon at my work desk. Don’t underestimate our technology

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Old School Brother: Hahaha.. Though, ruins the illusion I had of you working, didn’t picture Ron Washington at a desk working for the man

        • Old School Brother says:
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          @Grey: One little sessual hairsment claim and now I have to resort to a desk job. Things were so much better back in 2010 I tell ya hwat

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            I took OSB as a toll collector, if working for the man at all

  5. Sean says:
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    I’ve been having some similar thought about Pham myself, but how do like him as an 11th rounder this year? We only keep 4 players and my locks so far are Trea Turner in the 19th, Gary Sanchez in the 10th.

    Other Possiblities are: (if i pick 2 12s, then one is an 11 and the other 12)
    Aroldis Champman (11th or 12th) – i feel like this is a no brainer at this round
    Tommy Pham (11th or 12th)
    Tim Anderson (11th or 12th)
    Anthony Rendon (5th)
    Kenley Jansen (6th)

    Which 2 do you like best to add to Turner and Sanchez?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Sean:
      I’d go with Chapman and Rendon.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sean: Pham and Rendon

    • LenFuego says:
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      @Sean: If you are playing in a league that allows lineup changes only on a weekly basis, personally I would go Chapman in the 12th and Jansen in the 6th. That goes against common Razzball wisdom, but those two guys are probably good for 80+ saves and will help you in ERA, WHIP and Ks too. – you could ignore RPs the rest of the draft and still have a great relief staff.

  6. Crime Dog says:
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    If you went 1B, 3B in the first 2 rounds. Are you going Rendon in the third and clogging up your util or someone else like bregman to fill out another position (SS). I’m running into this problem in my mocks.

    • Peacecoast says:
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      @Crime Dog: I would wait.

      • Crime Dog says:
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        @Peacecoast: you’d wait? What’s that mean hah

    • Cram It says:
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      @Crime Dog: Look elsewhere.

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      @Crime Dog:

      I’d take Bergman over Rendon regardless. Take away Bregman’s terrible first month and his numbers look good. He could easily be a 20/20 180 RBI+R and .300 guy. I love him this year with SS eligible.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Crime Dog: I love Rendon, I have both ranked — Depends what you want from your 3rd rounder

      • Crime Dog says:
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        @Grey: Grey. Was trying to gauge your thoughts on this positional scarity esque type situation. I’m right there with you on Rendon. Love him. But if you have a 1B and 3B after rounds 1 and 2, are you taking rendon in the third as a util man if you love him that much or looking elsewhere?

        I’m not so much wondering if you like other guys more or not I see that from your rankings. Oaktown if you like bregman better personally I get that but I personally love rendon and am wondering if taking your guys, if it means clogging up utility, is a higher priority than positional scarcity in the eyes of Grey.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh, I didn’t follow… I wouldn’t take a 3B if I had a 1B and 3B after 1st two rounds… You need an OF too, not a SS

          • Crime Dog says:
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            @Grey: awesome thank you

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem

  7. Jangles says:
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    Hey Grey, so glad I’m back for my morning reading, cup of coffee in hand. Thanks to you I’ve finished first, first, and second the past three years in my family league.

    BUT (always a but) in my keeper league I suck. Please help me pick three of these to keep (I’m already keeping Bregman, Abreu, and Betts):

    Story
    Segura
    Odor
    Sano
    Happ
    Zimmer
    Kyle Tucker

    • Jangles says:
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      @Jangles: meant to add it’s all the usual stats and ops

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jangles: Sano, Story, Odor

  8. Ian says:
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    Grey – your bullish ranking of Robbie Ray has me considering him as a round-discount keeper. The Ks are gorgeous, but I’m pretty worried about the strand rate and BABIP regressing – combined with a poor walk rate and a fly ball and home run tendency has me more than a tad concerned. In humidor we trust?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ian: First I’ve heard of any push back on Ray… I wouldn’t be worried about him

  9. knucks says:
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    Was chirping yesterday afternoon about trading away Gary Sanchez/Judge in a 10 team 6×6 keeper (OBP and SLG instead of AVG… QS instead of Wins… and Holds) The Trea Turner owner was on the fence. I prob could have got him prior to the draft. But I sold Sanchez/Judge for Harper late last night instead.

    So my keepers are Altuve, Harper, Machado, Springer and Robbie Ray. And I didn’t lose any draft picks.

    Pretty juiced about this. Never played in such a shallow league. Still feeling like I have the best set of keepers by far, but can’t tell if I’m overreacting because it’s so shallow.

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @knucks:
      Nice trade and great keepers!

    • Old School Brother says:
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      @knucks: If some guy with a Larry David avatar comes on here and gives you shit for playing in a 10 teamer, tell him to buzz off

      • knucks says:
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        @Old School Brother: Bahaha!!

        Yo OSB, where we getting this 12th FCL owner? What is everyone so scared about? I look forward to the Razzing that will come my way in Sept when I bottom out in this league.

        • Old School Brother says:
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          @knucks: Ask J-FOH to sign up

          • MattTruss

            MattTruss says:
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            J-FOH is retired

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I think he came out of retirement, but uses the alias Scott Kimmel

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          @knucks: We’ll get someone. I think Truss just wants to get draft date set.

  10. Fanciful Basesball says:
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    Grey, I’m in an 11 team h2h 17×21 that takes hairstyle and height of socks into account. How should I use “Pham” in a sentence?

  11. snazz says:
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    disagree on pham partial heartedly. the guy hits frozen ropes to all fields and is the most intense human on earth. 30/30 with 20/20ish vision.
    Oh black betty pham ba lam.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @snazz: Haha, I hear ya

  12. Cram It says:
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    I can’t believe Pham is around 60 ADP. The Cardinals are good at getting career years out of average players for one year when their past their prime. See Allen Craig, David Freese, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick,

    • Cram It says:
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      @Cram It: *they’re

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Cram It:
      No way Pham comes close to last years numbers, I’d would not be surprised if he is a bench player by the summer.

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @Cram It: ESPN Lemmings.

    • Justin says:
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      @Cram It:

      Most hitters have above average vision because it’s hard to be a good hitter against Clayton Kershaw if you can’t see that well. Tommy Pham suffers from keratoconus (he’s legally blind in one eye) and couldn’t find contacts that could solve his vision problems throughout his MLB career. A new set of contacts at the beginning of last year helped rid him of the double vision and blurriness he was suffering from. I’ll spare you further deets. But I’d say if you look at his MLB performance from 2-3 years ago, that’s his floor. I doubt he does worse seeing than when he was not seeing clearly though. His downside is a vision problem. Not his age though. Notice how his plate discipline and walks improved dramatically last year. Food for thought.

      • Cram It says:
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        @Justin: Best shape of his life!

        • Justin says:
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          @Cram It:

          BEOHL

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: They do seem to have a knack for it

    • The Harrow says:
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      @Cram It: craig was damn good (OPS was sick) for like 2.66 or so years. he wasn’t much of an athlete though and got messed up in injuries quite often, eventually PF foot f’ed his shit up forever. now he’s not even good in BOS’s minors. the others though you are exactly right about. that red headed guy scott something or other who later flamed out in a blaze of drugs and crashed his car into somebody’s house then tried to cover it up, badly. think his last name started with an “s” too.

  13. snazz says:
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    craig,freese,ludwick didnt have years on par with pham. ankiel had freakish talent with mental issues.
    dude will be slotted in the three hole in front of Mozuna.
    take pham over buxton.

    • Cram It says:
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      @snazz: Huh? Yes they did.

      I’ll take Buxton tyvm.

      • Justin says:
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        @Cram It:

        Roto comparison: Runs & RBIs gotta be advantage to Pham, Average Buxton 2nd half was around .300 but can’t completely ignore 1st half – Pham hit .300 but high BABIP…wash maybe slight advantage to Pham. SBs advantage Buxton by prob 10 bags. Homeruns slight advantage to Pham but could be a wash.

        • Cram It says:
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          @Justin: I can ignore Bux’s first half. He’s trending in the right direction and I expect him to break out this year.

          • Justin says:
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            @Cram It:

            If you ignore his 1st half then its a wash for average and HRs IMHO. I am so humble.

            • Cram It says:
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              @Justin: I’m not parsing their stats from last year for comparison. I’ll take the young stud over the 30 year old unknown. End of story!

              • Justin says:
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                @Cram It:

                I’m comparing more than last year. I get it, you like em young

                • Cram It says:
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                  @Justin: 19 year old skin. Can’t beat it!

                  • Justin says:
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                    @Cram It:

                    Ewwwww, you must love Fernando Tatis Jr

      • spazz says:
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        @Cram It:
        none of those players were five cat studs like pham. freeze was a playoff warrior and average player during the season. luddy was grichuk with a higher average. allen craig was hal mcrae with no wheels.
        have yet to see buxton play in person but have seen pham in person dozens of games.
        dont sleep on pham.

        • Cram It says:
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          @spazz: I’m not talking about the types of players they were. I’m just talking straight stats. I won’t sleep on him, but I’m not using a 5th or 6th rounder on him.

  14. Glory Daze says:
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    Hey Grey,
    Need your help In a 12 team keeper league auction draft
    Here is a list of keepers I am considering. The budget is $270
    we need 26 players 4 OF’s , 3 Utility and 3 Bench spots.
    Who is not worth keeping. I can keep them all if i want. Closers go as high as $18 in my league
    Thanks as always
    Pos Player Salary
    C Realmuto $6
    1B Hoskins $6
    2B Albies $6
    SS Lindor $31
    3B Bregman $16
    CI Bellinger $6
    OF Stanton $37
    OF Blackman $34
    OF Calhoun $6
    U/OF Robles $6
    U/OF Eaton $9
    SP Bauer $6
    SP Carrasco $20
    SP Corbin $6
    RP Diaz $16
    RP Trienen $6
    RP Claudio $6
    RP Minaya $6
    $211

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Glory Daze: Throw back:

      RP Claudio $6
      RP Minaya $6
      OF Calhoun $6
      U/OF Robles $6
      U/OF Eaton $9

      • Glory Daze says:
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        @Grey:
        Thanks Grey appreciate it

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  15. I am the Walrus says:
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    Not a question. More of an observation. This is my first year playing in a league that counts holds. So I did some analysis. The last 2 yrs there were 33 and 32 players with 20 or more holds. However there were only 7 on both lists. SEVEN, that’s it!!!! (Miller, B.Shaw, Barraclay, Baez, Strop, Buchter, Harris). So my comment…it’s a damn stupid stat for fantasy leagues.

    • Peacecoast says:
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      @I am the Walrus: Just take high k/9 relievers on good teams, preferably 8th inning guys. I agree it is hard to predict who gets the holds. But they definitely vulture wins and even some saves and help your ratios.

    • knucks says:
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      @I am the Walrus: I never did Holds, but will be giving it a go for the first time this year. My thought in joining a Holds league was that I am always usually one of the first to the wire in leagues without Razzers. I won’t have to draft them. Seems like a stat I can easily identify off the wire.

      HAGNOF?

  16. Drinkin' my Philly says:
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    Grey, your wisdom is needed oh sage one. I play in an NL only league, where if your guy is traded to the AL you get the option of picking up the guy he was traded for. Drury was traded to the Yankees in a 3 team deal that netted Ari Souza back from TB. The Drury owner says he gets Souza. Other owners say no, Drury was traded for Widener and Souza was traded for Banda and players to be named later. Does the Drury owner get Souza? As always, thank you! And my latest recommendation is Counterpart with JK Simmons. VERY good. Not sure I buy Adrien Brody as a an Italian gangster, but latest season of Peaky was awesome anyway.

      • Drinkin' my Philly says:
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        Starz network

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah… Don’t have that (I don’t think)

        • Drinkin' my Philly says:
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          @Drinkin’ my Philly: and disgregard the question – Commish came around and awarded Souza to Drury owner – ME! Nice $5 keeper.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Nice, sorry, missed the question I think…

            • Drinkin' my Philly says:
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              @Grey: So if I can throw one more in there, long time 9 team NL only 23/260 5×5 w/ up to 11 keepers. Was 1C, 2U going back to 2C, 1U.

              Easy keeps: C Mart 7, Weaver 1, Taillon 5, Souza 5, Story 9, Rendon 21, Myers 17, Peraza 5, Margot 5 – that’s 9.

              Fence (need 2): Harper 44 – you said keep him but now it looks like Blackmon, Goldy, Rizzo, Votto all back in draft. I know I can get at least one of them for under 40. N Williams 5 (are they really going to bench Altherr?), d’Arnaud 2, Wacha 10. Which 2? And of the 2, would you bump 1 for Holland 14 if he signs in NL?

              And you still have to check out Happy on Syfy. Most shows start TV – LSV, Happy starts TV – WTF. Seriously dark violent comedy.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                I prolly have Syfy, not sure if I’ve seen anything on it… Wacha and Harper… You have no one besides Harper… You’re not gonna keep any of those others

                • Drinkin' my Philly says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: and THAT’s why you’re the MAN. Well, other reasons too I would assume, at least according to Cougs. Thanks Grey!

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    No problem

  17. FrankGrimes says:
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    I’m catching up on rankings.
    In the Lamet blurb you used stressors from mindhunter.
    Classic!

  18. Rbi’d For her pleasure says:
    (link)

    Dynasty league question 6*6 roto league with ops and qs being the 6th category on each side. Would you rather votto or sale. Or votto or severino and Bogaerts or would you just keep votto thanks for your input

  19. Jose says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Living in the land of the Redbird, they love this guy. He is the Redbird savior. Articles everywhere about how great he is. It’s exhausting! Great right up. Hopefully someone in my RCL (up to 8 tems!) is a Cardnal fan!

    Did another WAR Room draft yesterday, drafting against Fantrax ADP listings, and had to repeat drafting from the 2 slot as, all of the sudden, it wasn’t AuShizzThere’sAHumidorInAZ
    in the second Ranked overall slot…. Just a great excuse to spend more time in the WAR Room!

    Here it is then, WAR Room Draft against Fantrax ADP starting in the 2 slot drafting Jose Altuve!

    C Ramos (266)
    1B Hosmer (71)
    2B Altuve (2)
    3B Moustakas (119)
    SS Bregman (26)
    CI Gurriel (195)
    MI Arcia (170)
    OF MArtinez (23)
    OF Ozuna (47)
    OF Hamilton (74)
    OF Puig (95)
    OF Polanco (146)
    UTIL Simmons (220)
    P C Martinez (50)
    P Berrios (98)
    P Bauer (122)
    P Vizcaino (143)
    P Familia ((167)
    P Snell (191)
    P Morrow (216)
    P Manaea (241)
    P Odorizzi (245)
    Bench: Robertson, Boxberger, ((Nelson, Rodon, E. Rodrieguez(Depending who looks the closest to ready coming out of camp or is available)

    If it fell to chosing between JD Martinez and Springer on draft day with my second pick I had been leaning toward Martinez because I feel like his health at the DH position was a little more promising than Springer and his willingness to “give up his body” to make a play in the outfield. I may be leaning more toward Springer though and the IDEA that he could produce more SBs for my team. Does any of the make sense when chosing between the two?

    Also, first time Hamilton has fallen into my lap. Not mad about it, but not sure how much I love it.

    This draft took some turns I hadn’t been down yet and was pretty helpful learning some different options along the way!

    Razzball!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jose: Your hitting looks a little high on speed, Hamilton, Altuve, Polanco, makes it a little low on power too… Pitching looks fine…

      • Jose says:
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        @Grey:
        I’ve deleted the team since drafting it, but the WAR Room said it was high on power 110%+ and light on speed 95%-98%.

        WAR Room suggests a total of 261 HRs and 189 SBs. Would you suggest otherwise or just prefer to draft HRs and SAGNOF throughout the year?

        I should also add that in each of these drafts, I’m skipping guys that I’ve drafted in similar slots, as too try to see what other “value is around in the ADP clusters.

        This will be my first year in Roto and the points leagues I’ve played in undervalued guys who SO a lot, so I’m coming from a total different planet here. haha

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Interesting, looks opposite to me, but in War Room we trust! — I’m doing it by eye, War Room is actually adding #s, so I’d honestly trust War Room…

          • Jose says:
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            @Grey:
            It was actually one of the better teams I’d drafted according to WAR Room. It felt weird to me though too.

            I think I’m leaning more toward the 5 category contributors early and going with filling in the power in later rounds at the cost of AVG. Guys like Mazara, Franco, Schwarber, Conforto, Trumbo, Renfroe all feel HR safe, but finding steals with MI and UTIL in the late rounds have me reaching for SB when I need to be drafting SPs.

            Thanks for the input!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              They are homer safe, but give little else on SBs

        • LenFuego says:
          (link)

          @Jose: In my 12 team roto last year, 266 HRs would have finished between 11th and 12th, and 189 SBs would have finished way out in 1st place. 325 HRs and 140 SBs are better targets – that would get you around third place in each category.

  20. Crime Dog says:
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    Mets players who were presumably healthy are already getting hurt hahaha. Dom Smith has a quad strain. Degrom has lower back stiffness and Cespedes has some shoulder injury. Unreal.

  21. OaktownSteve says:
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    Mmmmmmkay commentariat comrades…one spot left in the FCL-RCL. Great league. You win this one and by god you’ve really done something meaningful with your life. Reply in comments for invite.

  22. Shujun says:
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    Do you like Archer (8th, last year to keep) or Travis Shaw (20th, keepable thru 2020) better in a 14 team league with OBP/SLG instead of AVG and QS added on? Thanks!

    • Peacecoast says:
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      @Shujun: shaw

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Shujun: Agree with Peace

      • Shujun says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks, guys!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  23. fredtbn1gs says:
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    Hey Grey, thanks for doing all my studying for me so I can ace the test. I could use your confirmation/refutation on keeper picks: I can keep 3 for up to the indicated times below. League is 12 team Yahoo 6×6 roto (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OPS; W/QS/K/ERA/WHIP/SV+H).

    Goldy (2 more years—he is obviously one of the picks)
    Benintendi (2 more years)
    Felipe Rivero (2 more years)
    James Paxton (2 years)
    Jameson Taillon (2 years)
    Shark (2 years)
    Tim Anderson (this year only)
    Whit Merrifield (this year only)
    Yoenis Cespedes (this year only)
    Mitch Haniger (this year only)

    Your rankings would suggest Goldy, Beni, and Merrifield. Or swap Whit for Paxton? Seems like a tough call after the first two…Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Goldy, Benintendi, tough call on last… I’d go with whichever you’re feeling, likely Pax for me

      • fredtbn1gs says:
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        @Grey: Thanks, that seems reasonable to me. I’ll keep an eye on his health up til we have to lock keepers…

  24. crock says:
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    Trying to decide my 3 keepers this year. It’s a 14 team h2h league, standard 5×5 with obp added. We keep 3 players for one year only at the previous years draft round. I will have the 3rd pick and will be able to select either Altuve or Turner. Here are my choices I’ve narrowed it down to:
    Stanton Rd 2
    DeGrom Rd 4
    Archer Rd 5
    McCullers Rd 11
    S.Perez Rd 13
    Jon Gray Rd 17
    Conforto Rd 24
    Brinson Rd 25

    I think Stanton is a definate. Him plus Turner would be a nice pairing. I hesitate in keeping Conforto because he’s injured, plus he’s on the Mets and we know how they do with injuries. Who you think I should keep?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Stanton, deGrom, McCullers

  25. CVG says:
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    I’m not saying Pham is without risk but he deserved most of his numbers last year.
    xBABIP .338
    xAVG .282
    xHR 20 with a 23.5% HR/FB

    He increased FB% in the 2nd half and hit 53% of his FB hard. All that in only 530 PA. He likely gets 600 PA this year so he’s a near lock for 20-20 with 25-25 upside

    Also you referred to his 2016 AAA BABIP and AVG but that was only in 33 games. I’d call that a small sample. I could point to 2015 or 2014 AAA BABIPs of .379 and .397 in 48 and 194 games respectively.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Fair enough, we’ll see

  26. MadMarlinsMan says:
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    Would you trade Story for Bauer in a Dynasty league? TT is my SS for the next decade and Story is sitting in my UTIL spot with lots of hitting depth.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nah

  27. knucks says:
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    Starting the Nike vs Adidas episode of Business Wars in a few. Let you know later what I think.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Oh, they’re already on next story? Wow, that was fast

      • knucks says:
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        @Grey: Yep, just got it in my feed today. Was able to listen to the entire Netflix one straight through. Will hate having to wait for episodes if the Nike episodes are as good as the Netflix ones

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, I hear that (literally)… You should check out the Pitch (if you like Shark Tank) and More Perfect (if you like politics)…

          • knucks says:
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            @Grey: Love More Perfect. And have the Pitch in my feed but have yet to start it. Will do that soon.

            “Reveal” is a great Pod. I’m thinking you listen to that or have heard of it?

            “Only A Game” is great (NPR Sports).

            I just started listening to the Richard Deitsch SI Media Podcast and its interesting usually, other times its meh.

            Also was told to listen to a Pod called “What Really Happened” and it was OK (couple good episodes, similar to Reveal kind of). Curious if you had listened to that one because there is a Chris Christie episode that was pretty good.

            Last one to mention is “Uncivil” from Gimlet. Interesting stories from the Confederacy that are fascinating and sad. Interesting stuff if you like History though.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, I love Reveal and Uncivil… Never heard of What Really Happened, sounds like a maybe-slash-pass… I can’t do sports pods, I talk enough about sports all day… How I Built This is solid, Planet Money, and I heard good things about Somebody Somewhere but haven’t listened yet…

  28. Chud says:
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    So far I’m 0-2 in the schmohawk ownership…….excellent work as always with the rankings!

    In a full 10 team salary keeper and have to cut (or trade) one of the following:

    Sano ($22), Buxton ($20), or Xander ($20).

    Who would you cut or try to trade 1st?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! None are great keepers at those prices… Prolly Sano, then Xander

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Trade that is

  29. Ben says:
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    I’m trying to figure out why Hosmer isn’t a schmohawk for you this year. Seems exactly like the kind of guy you’d hate. But you’ve made him baby Votto! I don’t know you anymore. Oh and I could make Hosmer a keeper in my 14-team roto league where we keep 3 to 5. Already have Altuve, Springer, Bregman. The pool will have some guys you’ve ranked lower — carrasco, Puig, k Davis. so this isn’t just about you. it’s about me!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sounds all about you and what you think of me and you…

  30. Geo says:
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    Loving all the rankings and write ups so far as usual. When will the Top 100 Keepers be out?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think sometime in the next week

  31. The Great Knoche says:
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    Just think, in less than 24 hours you will be waiting, and Waiting, and Waiting! To make your first selection In NFBC.

    Can’t wait!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha… Pre-wait has begun!

  32. Cano Soup says:
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    Keepers; Pick a side, any side . . .

    Marte/Ozuna/Jansen or Abreu/Bregman

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Abreu, pretty fair tho

  33. knucks says:
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    Still chirpin’ about this 10 team 6×6 roto keeper that I joined…

    Bats: R / HR / RBI / SB / OBP / SLG
    Arms: QS / ERA / WHIP / K / Saves / Holds

    Been crunching some number using Rudy’s tools. It looks like Altuve is worth a lot less than I had been valuing him as for this league. Does this have something to do with replacing AVG with OBP and SLG? Or does Rudy value Altuve less than most?? Thinking about trading my Altuve ($35ish) for Betts ($46ish). Maybe I’m using the tools and I’m off on the $$ evaluations I pulled??

    Would you rather have Altuve or Betts to pair with my other 4 keepers that I can keep forever without any draft rounds attributed to them (Harper, Machado, Springer, Robbie Ray)?

    Not planning to move a draft pick at all. Thought that would be an option and I may check back in with you if you say this is close and if he were to ask for one. Just for some extra reference, here are some of the names I would expect to be available for my to take in the first round (Pick #4)…

    Rendon, Ozuna, Starling Marte, Hosmer, Benintendi, Schoop, Carlos Martinez, Verlander, Ohtani (ESPN so DH/SP as one player).

    I’m guessing one of the three picks in front of me will take Ohtani, which I am fine with. I’ve got eyes for Rendon or Ozuna.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d use Rudy’s tools, and do use them… So if Rudy’s tools are saying that makes sense, then it does… Sorry, that sounds like I’m hedging, but I really do just use his tools for leagues outside of standard 12 team mixed…

    • knucks says:
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      @knucks: The Trea Turner owner might consider a straight Altuve/Turner swap.

      Rudy’s tools have Turner worth about $5 more than Altuve in this type of league.

      Your thoughts?

      I promise I’ll stop talking about this keeper shizz soon.

      Also thanks for those Pod recs above. I’ve added Somebody Somewhere to my list. Love Planet Money. Usually listen to most of the NPR pods.

  34. Debter says:
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    Dynasty Points league: I give up Segura and Tomas for Samardjiza? Shark is valuable in points because of the innings and Ks while the ERA isn’t too big of a deal, but he is 33. How much longer can he keep this up?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sounds fair

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Think you can do better tho

  35. Landisimo3 says:
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    Yo Grey… 12 team forever keep 10 + 10 farm/stash… Roto.. Would like to get younger while competing… Was just offered his Gallo for my Cutch … What’ya think? Thanks as always !

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Works for me

  36. The Great Knoche says:
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    Soler Home Run. #BSOHL

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wow, it was quiet on Soler front for a good 36 hours… He’s back!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Grey: @The Great Knoche:
      Soler has two homers already today..

  37. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    The Freak is a Texas Ranger..Rotoworld is saying he cud close in Arlington..hmmm

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, that’s ridiculous, he can’t get out major league hitters

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        @Grey:
        My best guess is he will be worse than he was when he was throwing (aiming?) in Anaheim a couple of years back.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Good guess

  38. Jr says:
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    Been reading for years but finally decided to nut up and join an RCL league. Never done Roto before so it’ll be interesting.

    Have a dynasty question for you. In a league with HR, BB, TB, OBP, SLG and NSB, would you trade Goldy and Weaver for Rizzo and Hoskins? Could really use the OF help with Hoskins, but not sure I want to give up goldy…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Good luck! I’d take Hoskins side

  39. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Feels like we’re starting to beat a dead horse with this Pham stuff. What’s new with you? Any drafts coming up?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yahoo Friends & Phamily on Thursday, and starting NFBC tomorrow with the 7th pick… Might have to take Goldy if he falls…

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Grey: That would be a reasonable spot for him. I’d go with one of Arenado, Turner, Betts, or Stanton if they fall, but I could see going with Goldy over Harper, Blackmon, and the aces.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’m taking Harper, not touching Blackmon this year

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @Grey: Yeah, I was saying who I’d be interested in at that spot. Nothing wrong with any of those options though, if healthy.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, we can agree on that, except Blackmon

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                @Grey: Over the last four years, he’s been the most consistently elite hitter in fantasy outside of Trout, Altuve, and Goldy (and arguably Arenado). Plays half of his games in the best hitter’s park in baseball. I see no reason to shy away from him now.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  His numbers last year scream career year, and top 7 overall is paying for that… I see a player closer to 110/24/70/.280/15, which isn’t bad, but top 7?

          • BJFOHOHL says:
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            @Grey: so you usually touch Blackmon and now you are swearing off Blackmon?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No Chazz Noir for me this year

              • BJFOHOHL says:
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                @Grey: I thought Blackmon’s wear Coolwater

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I don’t know what that is, sounds like aqua socks, is it aqua socks?

                  • BJFOHOHL says:
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                    @Grey: Coolwater Cologne? Snoop rapped about it

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      My bell is not being rung right now…. Hmm…

  40. BJFOHOHL says:
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    Wait, its shit on Tommy Pham day and Magoo isn’t here? The storm is a comin

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, I think he’s already said his peace on Pham

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I.e., above in 4 comments

    • BJFOHOHL says:
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      @BJFOHOHL: and the storm is here, I forgot to hit the post button

  41. Oppo Taco says:
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    I know you’re not big on Corey Seager (BUT DON’T HAVE ANYTHING AGAINST HIM….I listened to the pod today) so would you trade Seager and a first round pick (~9th round since we keep 8) for Freeman? It’s a 5×5 roto. My only concern is I already have a bevy of 1B. We play with 1B, 2 UTIL and no CI. Thanks!
    Keepers : Goldy, Trea, Rizzo, Bregman, Upton, Bumgarner, Hoskins, Seager (could switch for Freeman)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha…Yeah, I’d take the guy I ranked 30 spots before Seager

  42. Big league choo says:
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    10 team 5×5 OBP/(Holds+saves) dynasty league

    Bradley zimmer/clevinger or matt Olson/Roberto osuna

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Olson

  43. Chad says:
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    Pham is like Yelich with more speed (9 more steals in 160 fewer PAs) and power (.200+ ISO each of the last 2 years vs. Yelich’s ~.170). Or like Hosmer, except Hosmer has a higher GB %, lower hard hit rate, and 19 fewer SB’s than Pham… Still scratching my head about that Hosmer sleeper.

    Anyway, his BA will probably come down some, but he’s gonna have a high BABIP w/ his speed + high GB % and a ~23% LD rate. Let’s add 100 PA’s, take off some power / BA and he’s still a 20+ / 25 guy w/ a solid batting avg. Give me that at pick 60 (or at Yahoo’s current ADP of 75) all day long!

    100 / 24 / 80 / 25 / .285

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Chad: Surprised to see another Pham supporter around here. Welcome, Chad!

  44. knucks says:
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    Testing my grav

    • knucks says:
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      @knucks: Another test comment

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Needed moderation bc you changed your email

  45. knucks says:
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    Testing** Testing**

Comments are closed.