Tim keeps on slippin’ slippin’ into the future. And Tim Anderson keeps on bein’ bein’ a sleeper. This is the pompatus of love. Member The Pompatus of Love was a movie with Jon Cryer? Now Jon Cryer is a host for a true crime podcast. 2017, you’re weird. What does 2018 hold? Well, you know how children of crazy parents are super normal to make up for their parents, and children of normal parents are super crazy in a vice versa sorta way? My guess is 2018 will be completely normal. A backlash against 2017. This is how these things work. Also, 2018 can’t get weirder, so there’s that. I had a dream the other night, it was an erotic dream with Giancarlo, but he wasn’t MVP, so that’s how I knew it was a dream. In this dream, I was a giant tongue. Tim Anderson didn’t participate in my dream, but I can see a scenario where Anderson does enter my dreams in 2018. Last year, he went 17/15/.257 in 587 ABs, i.e. a full season. On its surface, this is solid, if unspectacular season. Solid but unspectacular for a guy that will be barely drafted in 12 team mixed leagues, raises my antennas… Antennae? Antennyay? Anelevena? Just making up words now? So, what can we expect from Tim Anderson for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
He will only be 24 years old for the better part of the 2018 season, so 17 homers was by far his best power year, yet I don’t think it’s his peak. His HR/FB% was 14.4% and his career rate is 13.6%. Granted, that’s heavily weighted by his 2017 percentage, but his home run distance averaged 405 feet, bullying one out at 445 feet. He didn’t hit many, but he also didn’t hit wall scrapers. Paul Goldschmidt’s homers averaged 406 feet; Ryan Zimmerman averaged 405. Tim Anderson isn’t Giancarlo, but he’s also not Daniel Descarlo, a hybrid made in a lab with Daniel Descalso and the sperm from me thinking about Giancarlo. Anderson hits a ton of ground balls, which will hurt his power numbers. Last year, he hit only 28% fly balls, but he’s had years over 30% before in his career. Last year, he hit 118 fly balls. If he hits 33% fly balls, he’ll hit around 138 fly balls. If he hits 15% of those for homers, he’s going to hit around 21 homers. These are not huge extrapolations to get him over 20 homers. I’m being conservative here. *dons bow tie* Now do you believe I’m being conservative? Good. Next up, his speed. He stole 49 bags in Double-A in 2015. Sure, stealing in Double-A is like having a 55-foot lead against a catcher who is wearing Opti-Grab glasses. Not a ton (palindrome!) of skill involved in stealing in Double-A, but there is speed. No matter how awful minor league catchers might be, you’re not stealing 49 bags unless you’re fast. Last year in 15 steals, he was only caught once. I think Anderson can steal 30 bags pretty easily. Rick Renteria doesn’t seem to want to steal a lot (White Sox were 21st worst for steals; Ron LeFlore is rolling over in his crack den). Surprised that Renteria doesn’t want to run since his name sounds like a condition identified by diarrhea. So, Anderson has the speed, we’ll see if he uses it. His average? Well, it’s not going to be pretty without some BABIP help — helBIP? He swings too much, and doesn’t walk at all. Still, for the draft day price, Tim Anderson is going to be a solid sleeper. For 2018, I’ll give him the projections of 83/21/68/.260/25 in 593 ABs with the thought that he’ll be batting 2nd vs. 6th or lower for most of the season.
What’s even more shocking is Jon Cryer hasn’t been hit with any weird “Spacey-esque” accusations.
@Ralph Lifshitz:
How about Rick Moranis? Or Andrew McCarthy?
@FrankGrimes: Bonnie Hunt and her tentacles!
@Ralph Lifshitz: Cryer seems unlikely, think you have a better chance finding out something on the dad from 7th Heaven
@Grey: Cryer creeps me out.
He seems more like erectile dysfunction killer than a sexual predator though…
@Grey: I have Kirk Cameron in my sexual harassment pool. The payout is huge if it’s him.
My guess is it pays out less if he’s caught sexually assaulting a man vs. a woman, as it’s more likely…
@Grey: the gay not gay pool?
He was friends with Boner, right?
FWB
FOB!
@Ralph Lifshitz: ducky didn’t do that shit.
Haha
Does anyone else want to write time whenever they try to write tim? Just me? ok
I really want to believe that Anderson goes 20-25 or even 20-30 but there’s so much volatility in his game and his approach at the plate was worse in 2017. If I’m going for a MI around 200 overall, I’m going Marcus Semien who doesn;t have the upside of Anderson but will be more consistent with something like 20-10 with 25-15 upside.
Who would you rather have?
@MaxFreeze: I like Semien, but I’d go Anderson first
@Grey: I know you like Semien, I’ve read your Giancarlo write-ups.
Hahaha
Grey,
I’m having a hard time decided who my 10th keeper should be – 12 team H2H
As of today:
Belinger
Moncada
Trea
Sano
Cespedes
Cruz
I. Happ
(SP) Ray
(SP) Reyes – Cards
my 10th :
Mazara
Suarez
Michael Taylor
Honeywell
O. Arcia (milw)
thanks boss!
@Llango: Mazara or Arcia, prolly lean Mazara b/c pedigree
Anderson is a good sleeper pick. He’ll be mostly ignored in drafts both due to his performance last year and his team. However, Chicago should improve this year with more experience for its young guys, and maybe one of their rookies can be a spark to bring together the team. Jimenez (and maybe Kopech) should be up in the summer, Giolito looked good at the end of the season.
As for choice in SS, assuming I don’t get a Correa or Lindor early on, I’m probably taking Arcia, Semien, Polanco or DeJong before Anderson. That said, I’m cyclopsing him hard early on.
@Tweak: Thanks! I don’t dislike the guys you mention as going before…
@Tweak: Actually Anderson consistently is going before 200. Every single one of Arcia, Semien, Polanco and DeJong is going after him. People love the upside it seems.
You prollly already discussed it but with all
the Ohtani mania how will sites address his stats?
Do you even think he will be eligible for both pitching and offense?
@FrankGrimes: What they should do is let people draft a hitter Ohtani and a pitcher Ohtani… What I think they’ll do is have him be a hitter or UTIL
@Grey: Fantrax will allow you to slot him as one or the other. He’ll only accrue hitting stats when he’s started as a hitter and vice versa.
My understanding is CBS will have two players.
So Fantrax will allow you to have both? That changes his ranking considerably from CBS model…
@Grey:
Good stuff Grey.
On Otani : in the Fantrax model he won’t accrue hitting stats on days he pitches? That makes ranking him even more complicated (predicting AB’s on non pitching days or even on days when you don’t want him to start) especially if he signs for an NL team.
Many thanks,
Dan
Thanks! Agreed, he’ll be a big lottery ticket, I’d imagine 20 starts, 300 ABs, something like that…
@Another Dan: I’m at the point I think we should value the starter, and figure the hitting is gravy.
@Ralph Lifshitz:
Agreed. I’m not getting him in either dynasty at the moment (unless he signs in 2018). Guy with first pick in one dynasty is not even considering a trade. Am as sick as a parrot about that. Would love to own him.
Am loving the farm reviews Ralph. If Braves and White Sox are 1 and 2. Who is 3 ?
Best wishes,
Dan
@Another Dan: Padres!
I’m guessing I’m gonna have to rank both… Ohtani hitter and pitcher
@Ralph Lifshitz:
@Grey:
Why two players? This doesn’t compute with me.
Prolly the easiest for companies to handle the situation, they don’t need to change how they handle him, they just need to add two new players…
@Grey:
Meh. That takes the fun out of owning him.
Careful, Grimey, doode’s hype’s out of control
@Grey:
Giants are meeting with him today.
Imagine if they get Stanton and him?
Maybe they score more than two runs a game!
Hype train in full force.
Ps I fully realize they will get neither.
They might get both of them, but if they lose Joe Panik it’s a push….
@Grey:
Haha. I’m praying they give that trash can Belt to the marlins and Ohtani can play first!
https://twitter.com/mccoveychron/status/937732843458912261
Thrice concussed Belt? I can’t even imagine the Marlins wanting anyone on the Giants except Posey or Bum, and they’re not being traded…
ESPN guy:
“Get Ohtani in your lineup!”
An hour later:
“Sorry for the delay, everyone… Mexican for lunch was a bad choice. Get Ohtani in your lineup!”
At some point, Ohtani is going to be brought in to pinch hit during an interleague game and it will cause an error in the programming of one of these sites. That error is going to trigger Google Skynet to become self-aware and beat Trump to the punch (the downfall of civilization.)
HAHA, totally
Right now, In AL ONLY; 5×5; 8 keeper; two catcher; $260 budget league, which side of the trade would you take?
Britton($16)/Brach($5)
For
McHugh($11) / J.Polanco($10)
Also, how positively do you feel about Polanco and McHugh?
Thanks!!
@Bbboston: I guess Polanco, but it’s fair… You should do a little better; McHugh does little for me, but he has some value in AL Only
@Grey: I meant — I guess Polanco *side*
@Grey:
So, do you feel like Polanco is a good keeper at $10, and has a solid shot to continue last year’s “breakout”? Sounds like it?
None of these guys are great prices… I like Polanco, but $10 is no great deal…
@Grey:
we’ve got a lot of price inflation, so if you like him he’d go above that in the auction. Our league is one of the oldest root-leagues, and by the time the auction comes there aren’t a lot of unknown“sleepers” – especially due to al only.
Yeah, when you have keepers there’s gonna be inflation, but Polanco’s still not a hugely exciting player…
Grey – got a show for you on amazon
Jean Claude Van Johnson – legit!
Saw the updated list for Otani, hopefully he goes to the dodgers with that 80 grade speed haha
Funny you say that, I saw a billboard for it yesterday and I was intrigued when I saw Ridley Scott was an EP… Dodgers haven’t had someone with 80 grade speed since Dee Gordon, yeah, they seem like the same player…
Grey,
I’ve got Jose Ramirez in an OBP/SLG league. I’m a bit heavy on speed. Thoughts on swapping him for Freeman? I’ve always liked Freeman and felt my value of him substantiated in 2016 and early 2017 before the injury.
Like one guy over the other or think it’s mostly a preference thing?
Thanks
It’s a push, I’d take Freeman if you’re speed heavy
Have you watched Hired Guns on Netflix? Damn, its kinda depressing for these musicians and Billy Joel is the biggest piece of shit.
Nah, I haven’t even heard of it, but it looks solid… We binged Stranger Things finally, and we’re heavy into screenings right now… Saw The Post on Saturday… Bleh…
@Grey: I want to do screenings. I’ll be your plus sized plus one
Hired Guns is about all the hired musicians for big acts who get paid like minor league baseballers and treated like shit half the time. Its not great compared to some of the studio musician docs on there, but its a good story about people you’ve always heard yet never knew who they were
Call Me By Your Name was best movie of the year so far, Lady Bird was solid too…
Hired Guns sounds like a companion piece to that doc about the Incredible Bongo Band doc, Sample This! You see it? It was a good watch…
@Grey: I watched some of it. Never finished it. What about the disaster artist?
Did you watch Jim and Andy on Netflix. I started it and it was good
I think we see Disaster Artist this week, you know that’s from The Room guy? I watched Jim and Andy it was good, I love Carrey and Kaufman tho…
@Grey: me too, made me want to go watch man on the moon again. Never saw the room, just heard of it for along time. If for some reason Cougs gets sick I can totally be your plus plus one
Cougs drags herself to screenings with her deathbed if need be, but will keep in mind if anything ever comes down pike… You know they sent me a Boss Baby screener for my awards consideration? Hehe, WHAT?!
@Grey: Thats a big WHAT!
Got a new doc for you on YouTube, it’s Long but it’s bonkers and I think you’ll like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fny99f8amM
going over the late season posts (football/hockey jams my shit up late in season) i see a me and ralph back and forth on porcello was linked on sept 28th, i believe my first, i’m so honored!
Ha, yup!
I didn’t see you comment, nor anyone else comment yet, but he had 9 steals in September without getting caught. This seems like a good sign going forward to 2018 which collaborates what you did talk about.
@Cheese: his overall lack of stealing rate was mentioned somewhere, but even i (who owned him in at least 2 spots last year) didn’t know it was THAT many late in the year.
Hey, Grey: gotta keep 7 of these 12 in a 14-tm Roto – C,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI, 4OF,U;8P. Martinez, murphy, gordon, carrasco plus which 3 others? Thanks. Dennis, “Baseball Furies”
J.D. Martinez OF | ARI
Daniel Murphy 2B | WAS
Dee Gordon 2B | SEA
Marwin Gonzalez 1B,2B,3B,OF,SS | HOU
Eugenio Suarez 3B | CIN
Andrelton Simmons SS | LAA
Ian Desmond 1B,OF | COL
Melky Cabrera OF | KC
Gregory Polanco OF | PIT
Hunter Renfroe OF | SD
Carlos Carrasco P | CLE
Ervin Santana P | MIN
Not Marwin, Melky, Renfroe, Andrelton, Ervin