Early on in every preseason, I say something like, I do my own projections, but I’d be a fool to not at least look at Steamer and ZiPs’ projections.  It’s like when there’s answers in the back of your math textbook.  Sure, you can figure out the cosine of X if all equations are written on a train going 178 MPH through a tunnel while Gregory Peck gets some action in Roman Holiday, but isn’t it easier to turn to the answers and then try to work backwards?  Not to answer, but to nod knowingly.  Sometimes looking at those player projections gets me more or less excited about players.  Tim Anderson is a guy who got a sizable boost in my mind after seeing his projections.  A sizable boost right in my ass, which sounds like what a nurse would say during inoculations if the nurse were trying to get fired.  Also, asking kids if they saw the movie Vaxxed might have consequences to their job, as well.  Anyway, what can we expect from Tim Anderson for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

So, about those projections, Steamer has Tim Anderson down for 71/12/60/.269/21 in 608 ABs.  Let’s look at each number, shall we?  (You don’t have much say in this, so I suggest going along with what I want to do.)  71 runs?  He should be hitting 2nd for the White Sox.  You know the White Sox, they’re the Chicago team rebuilding after seeing the success the other Chicago team had rebuilding.  We shall call them Cubbies, Part Deux.  Seventy-one runs for a two hole hitter on a bad team is about right.  Last year, the White Sox scored their two hole hitter 92 times.  The worst in the league was the A’s with 68 runs and the Braves and Marlins, who weren’t great, scored their two-hole hitter 85 times.  Figure Anderson misses fifteen games just from day-today injuries and standard rest days and he’s in the 71-75 runs range.  Next up, his 12 homers.  He doesn’t hit many fly balls (24.9% last year).  About the same as Denard Span, which makes me want to weep, or as many fly balls as Villar or Ryan Braun, which makes me feel better.  There’s one guy who is a near-match for Anderson in fly balls, Hard Contact and Homers/Fly Balls.  His ex-teammate, Adam Eaton.  In a good year, Eaton’s a 14 homer guy, and Anderson bumps his head on that ceiling too.  Probably closer to 12 homers.  Next up, 60 RBIs.  Only two teams had two-hole hitters get less than 60 RBIs, so it’s scraping the bottom to give him that few, which is what the White Sox will likely be doing.  60 to 63 RBIs feels about right.  Next up, a .269 average.  The one big negative is Anderson takes less walks than a fat Sandoval.  (Skinny Sandoval now walks everywhere.  He started working for Uber this offseason and he doesn’t pick up people in a car, he picks them up in his arms and walks them where they’re going.)  Anderson struck out 27.1% of the time, and swings a lot, not always making contact.  At least last year, in the minors, he was better.  At 23 years old, with the confidence the White Sox have in him, I think his strikeouts can go down.  Since he hits most balls on the ground and relies on his speed, I think .275 to .285 is possible.  I wouldn’t even count out .300+.  There’s some risk there.  Finally, his steals.  And that’s where he should excel.  He stole 49 bases in 2015 in Double-A and 21 bases across Triple-A and the majors last year.  With Tilson in the leadoff slot and Anderson at number two, I picture the White Sox just running like crazy, since they have nothing to lose except 100 games.  Want a cheap 14/25 guy?  Say Segura twenty rounds later?  Then it’s all about the Tim Andersons!  (Doesn’t work as well since his name isn’t Tim Benjamin.)  For 2017, I’ll give him the projections of 75/14/63/.277/25 in 603 ABs.

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Matt
Matt
5 years ago

Man, how do you have time to do live when you post sleeper articles constantly

goodfold2
goodfold2
5 years ago

bids are out and almost every hitter (and most pitchers) have been matched. my stanton bid won, with 23.001 mil for 4 years (2nd was 21.85 for 4 so i didn’t overbid much, which is nice). i was slightly off on bids for some others, and myself would’ve won all of these, except i specifically said i ONLY want one of these, since more than 1 would mess up budget pretty well (i’d be left with around 1.5 mil per player for last 8 roster spots). the guy who i barely beat to stanton went 18 mil for 6 YEARS on strasburg (that looks nuts currently)
– freeman won with 18.56 (mine 20.001)
– votto won with 16.5 (mine 19)
– villar won with 14.5 mil (mine 18.001)
– cargo 1 won with 16.5 (mine 18.001)

my quintana was hit up for 13 mil for 3 years. we have till midday to match or not (i’d get a comp end of 1st round draft pick if i don’t match). problem of course is i won’t necessarily know whether i get stanton just before or just after i do this. if i match quintana and get stanton (i’d lean i don’t get stanton since almost every hitter has been matched, this particular owner has to pick whether or not he matches stanton and/or price at 16 per for 4 years)
C d’arnaud
CI (2) beltre
MI (2) segura
OF (3) altherr/rosario
util (1) drury
SP davies/quintana/sale/rey lopez (WSOX/urena (optimal about 6 starters)
RP (6 slots) m.cabrera/n.jones/one of my prospect RP
i’d have 3.94 per for 10 spots, and be pretty well set up as far as bidding decent money on SP.

with that budget and stanton up in the air i’d guess still match on quintana (even though 3 years on pitchers seems scarier than hitters)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
5 years ago

@goodfold2: hilariously enough, out of 29 guys who could’ve bid something on d.wright, NOT one did, meaning his owner who restricted him gets him at league minimum .400 one year deal, and at that price is probably worth it.

Dakota
Dakota
5 years ago

Grey, I need some advice. I’m in a 12 team keeper league (roto 5 x 5). We can keep seven players in the round they were drafted. You can’t keep players drafted in the first 5 rounds.

For sure I am keeping Arrenado (6th rd.), Will Myers (11th), Lanced McCullers (19th), JD Martinez (14th) and Alex Reyes (24th). I have two spots left. Of the following players, who would you keep?

A. Benintendi
Dansby Swanson
Jose Ramirez
Herman Perez

Thanks!

Josh-NYC
Josh-NYC
5 years ago

Happy New Year!

These sleeper posts are great.. one way to feed my fantasy baseball addiction prior to the start of the season

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
5 years ago

Happy New Year Grezzley!

Keepers due today. Here’s what I’m thinking (can keep 8 in a 12 player league) – first year auction, so player values nearer the top I feel will be more discounted than usual. Don’t LOVE Braun or Cruz, but seriously thinking about keeping Donaldson and the two of them + Yu to start it off.

$36 Donaldson
$23 Braun
$17 Cruz
$18 Yu
$5 Billy Hamilton
$10 Miller OR Sam Dyson for $1
$1 Dahl

$1 – and then one of Nola/Velazquez/Roark/Tim Anderson
(Of those 3 SPs who do you like and is it close? — kind of leaning Vincent V tbh…

Segura is also an option for $14 — might be good for mult-position eligibilty?

I like the idea of keeping these bats; feel they’re pretty balanced and should set me up really well offensively to make a run this year (plus with the help of your/JBs pitcher ranks, I’ll find some value to fill out the staff).

Let me know if I’m off base here!

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: thanks man – just curious, is Andrew Miller definitely penciled in to close for Cleveland? Happy New Year man

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: cool thanks again man. So I’m left with $136 going into the auction (diff strategy for me than years passed) so I’m gonna have to get thrifty as a MOFO. Going to be all in on your sleepers man — like Mariah, don’t feel any pressure!

Paul Lamb
Paul Lamb
5 years ago

12 team 5×5 roto keeper

Keep Anderson over Kimbrel as 12th? Managers tend to keep closers in my league. Probably easier to draft Anderson than it would closers but Sagnof (both ways).

Trout
Bryant
Miggy
Murphy
Kemp
C Seager
Stanton
Schwarber
Grienke
Darvish
Cole

Thanks Grey, I look to you for all things;)
pl

Paul Lamb
Paul Lamb
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey:

Thanks again

Swfcdan
Swfcdan
5 years ago

Wierd question for NYE but are you high on Hernan (Perez) next year? 13/34 last year and I know how much you like your Starling Marte power speed types. Have him at $6 in a keeper, he worth keeping for $9 next year (12 teamer)?

And happy new year to you grand master fantasy baseball lothario! May Razzball increase to 4 girl readers next year.

JoeyBell
JoeyBell
5 years ago

Desmond > JD Martinez? I have the chance to swap for JD and can’t tell if this is good locking in value or missing too much Coors upside. I’m staying ambivalent about the categories for now — just off-season asset collection.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

also swung a deal to get Kershaw

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

I gave up Donaldson, Quintana ,deGrom, and Wade Davis
I got, Kershaw, Chapman,McCutchen, and Britton

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

how did i do on that deal

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

Wanted to thoughts on this trade I just made.

I trade: Cueto, Bubba Starling and Starling Marte
I get: Nolan Arenado, and Trea Turner

Forget the first offer I received.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

SO i made a great deal?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

Just got a trade offer

I give up Cueto anf Bubba Starling
I get Nolan Arenado

Make the deal?

Troy
Troy
5 years ago

D. Travis > Anderson?

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

Do any of these keeper trades beat a $30 Kershaw and $6 Khris? If so, any preferences?

Manny ($20)

Thor ($7) and AJ Pollock ($15)

Thor and Marte ($20)

Carrasco ($15) and JD Mart ($10)

Thanks!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: well Thor and Carrasco are each basically just Frazier as a RHP, with more injuries.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: a $14 degrom is also available with that JD Mart

MattTruss
Editor
5 years ago

What’s up boss? Been slammed at work of late, but still reading! New Tribe album is dope. Early still in my listening by Solid Wall of Sound and Dis Generation are my faves so far.

Just dug myself out of 20+ inches of snow this morning…so, there’s that.

Speaking of digging, I’m digging Timmy this year too, good stuff.

Take it easy man, and happy New Year!

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
5 years ago

Friggin Uber

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Haha. I saw a Lyft commercial the other day. Switch it up for the one-seven.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I have no plans. I’m on call for work….thanks to Uber. I wouldn’t have to go anywhere, just talk on the phone and get on the laptop, but we don’t really drink much anyway. We might try making some sweet potato gnocchi. That could go great or become a disaster fast. How about you?

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Never watched it, see you and some people talk about it on here. Sounds like it would be good.

Yeah even my Italian family never really makes their own pasta. She wants to do something nicer than the usual though. Was trying to talk her into something involving scallops.

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I crush Scallops on the barbie, the key to them after you clean them is making sure they are completely dry

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

@Big Odio: Id say blame the Jews but that doesnt work in this case

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Big Odio
5 years ago

My bad, I always forget about the built in self loathing. Such a fail safe with you peoples

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Big Odio: @Grey: I won’t lie, I watch some cooking shows here and there, but I can’t cook at all. I mean, nothing. No good. Not happening for me. I’ve never really put much effort into learning either.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Reply to  Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
5 years ago

I always say I’m going to start trying, just never happens. I can grill a little bit, but no superstar at that either.

Rock Diggler
Rock Diggler
5 years ago

Can’t wait for your rankings. Was wondering if you were as high on freddie freeman as mr cocksoft is. He has him ranked 24. I mean record year aside he is a good hitter but plays for the stinking braves. I was thinking more 50-60 range. Would like to know your thoughts.

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Rock Diggler
5 years ago

@Rock Diggler: braves are getting better but not sure what that has to do with where he would be ranked. The addition of kemp was huge for him and a step forward by swanson as well as a healthy inciarte will help his rbi totals. Shoukd be an in his prime gonzo.

scott
scott
5 years ago

Thanks for the fast response. Look forward to your rankings as usual. By the way – -that was 26 words.

scott
scott
5 years ago

Grey:
Happy new Years. I used to be a big ray Flowers fan and now I am shifting over to you. More humorous if nothing else.
I saw that you participated in a mock draft for CBS recently and picked Springer with your second pick. In 25 words or less can you explain why you like him for 2017.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Todd Frazier, without average concerns, and at OF?

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: haha! I do! Only this year though…it’s interesting that going into last year he was a top 25/30 player and just one year later people seem to hate him despite a 40/~15 season and ~.215 Babip.

Plus, Frazier is basically Ben Revere + Denard Span – Ben Revere, with less average, more homers/RBI and fewer steals.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: basically twins (triplets?)

Funny Name
Funny Name
5 years ago

Top 10 coming on Jan 16th?

Swaggerjackers
Swaggerjackers
5 years ago

So many intriguing young players that can’t take a walk. This new era of high strikeout low walk hitters is making my OBP draft strategy more difficult. For every upside guy, I’ll need to counter them with a Santana and Fowler.

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
5 years ago

Have a Happy New Year homeboy. I’m recovering from celebrating my Football Championship. I will be diving back into baseball early January…I have a lot of sleeper posts i need to catch up on LOL.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
5 years ago

Grey!!!

Great write-up.

a. Still in CDG airport. Saw a couple 45 minutes before departure looking extremely lost and at least 45 minutes away from their gate (including security check and queue and transport to the terminal they are supposed to be at)!! CDG has become really complex for non-francophones. Not good. The couple was planning a trip to Cancun, I hope they made it.

b. Gonna like Timmy Anderson. Why is it that most 2B bat 2nd in the lineup? Maybe ‘El grande Dolor’ has a rejuvenated season more like 2014 and 2015.

Cheers,
Ante