When I talk about a breakout, I’m not looking for a player who goes from pick 200 to pick 150. That’s useful, but it’s not what I’m after sitting at the 2026 trade deadline in a keeper league. I want to find the hitters who could make a much bigger jump, the players who have a legitimate chance to be top 25 fantasy hitters in 2027 while still carrying a considerably lower price right now. That’s a difficult group to find. A player needs to have enough power, speed, and plate discipline to actually reach that level. Plus, there also needs to be something the market hasn’t fully accounted for. Maybe it’s a skill that is just beginning to emerge. Maybe it’s a young hitter whose power hasn’t caught up with the rest of his game. Or maybe it’s a player who has quietly improved enough that the hitter we’re watching now is considerably better than the one fantasy managers remember. Time to dig in.
Jac Caglianone
Caglianone is probably the easiest player on this list to make fun of for calling a breakout candidate. He’s already having a very good season, and after Thursday’s five-hit, six-RBI performance against Toronto, he has 23 home runs and a .282/.332/.500 line through 123 games. But that’s precisely why I think there is still an opportunity here. The surface numbers have improved dramatically from his disastrous 2025 debut, yet they still don’t resemble the fantasy production we’re talking about when we say top 25. The underlying numbers, however, are starting to look like they belong to that player.
The easiest place to start is the power. Caglianone’s 93.2 mph average exit velocity ranks among the very best in baseball, while his 55.0% hard-hit rate and 14.7% barrel rate are elite. His .516 expected slugging percentage is also higher than his actual .500 mark, so we’re not dealing with a player whose home run total is being artificially inflated by fortunate contact. In fact, the opposite is arguably true. The 23-year-old has gone from an 89.4 mph average exit velocity and 42.4% hard-hit rate as a rookie to 93.2 mph and 55.0% this year. The power has not merely arrived. It has become one of the most dangerous contact profiles in baseball.
The part that makes me think 2027 could be different is what has happened with the strikeouts. Caglianone’s season K rate is still 26%, which is obviously a problem, but his approach has improved significantly as the season has progressed. Since the All-Star break, he has improved dramatically to a 17.7% strikeout rate, and Caglianone specifically talked about trying to “shrink the zone” and fight with two strikes. That improvement is showing up in more than just the strikeout column. His contact quality has remained elite while his ability to put the ball in play has improved, which is exactly what we needed to see before believing the power could translate into much bigger fantasy numbers.
That gives Caglianone a pretty clear path to a top 25 season. If the improved approach sticks, we’re not asking him to suddenly become a different hitter. Something in the neighborhood of 35 to 40 home runs, a .275 or better batting average, and double-digit steals would put him squarely in the conversation, particularly if Kansas City continues to give him a prominent spot in the lineup. RotoWire’s first 2027 draft had Caglianone 10th among first basemen and 17th among outfielders, which tells us the industry is already moving in his direction, but there is still a substantial gap between that valuation and the top 25 outcome I’m projecting.
The risk is obvious, and it is the reason he’s still available at a discount. We don’t know yet if the improved strikeout rate represents a permanent change or simply the best stretch of his young career. His 6.1% walk rate also leaves very little room for a poor contact rate, and he’s had some injury concerns this year, most recently dealing with nagging ankle soreness. If the strikeouts climb back toward 30%, Caglianone could still be a 30-homer hitter, but the batting average probably keeps him outside the top 25. This will be a volatile profile, but if the approach we’ve seen recently is real, the price could look very silly a year from now.
Carson Benge
Benge is my favorite combination of youth, floor, and upside in this group because his rookie season already gives us most of the fantasy profile we want. He’s hitting .279 with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases, and he’s done it while playing regularly for the Mets at age 23. The power numbers aren’t overwhelming, but that’s part of the appeal. Benge is already approaching a 20-homer 20-steal season without yet maximizing his power. He’s also striking out only 21.4% of the time, with a .281 xBA and .341 xwOBA, which gives us considerably more confidence in the overall hitting ability than we would have with a typical young hitter.
The really interesting part of Benge’s season is that we actually know something changed. He carried a .143/.229/.206 line into April 19, then altered his batting stance by closing his front side. Since May 1, he has produced a 127 wRC+, which ranked 28th among qualified hitters at the time MLB wrote about the adjustment. His slugging percentage jumped from just .278 through April to .453 after the change, while his attack angle improved. The fastball results are another reason I don’t think we’re simply looking at a lucky hot streak. Before the stance change, Benge hit .226 with a .264 expected batting average against fastballs. Since May 1, he’s hitting .342 with a .327 xBA against them. That’s an enormous improvement, and the fact that the expected number moved along with the actual number matters. He also has a .440 xSLG for the season despite producing only a .426 actual slugging percentage, suggesting there is already more power in the quality of his contact than the box score has shown.
This is where the 2027 projection gets fun. Benge doesn’t need to turn into a 40-homer hitter to become a top 25 fantasy player. He’s already providing the batting average foundation and the speed, and 20 stolen bases are not particularly difficult to envision again. If the power develops from the current 20-home-run pace into the 25 to 30 range, we’re suddenly looking at a hitter capable of something like upper 20s homers, 20 to 25 steals, and a .275ish batting average. That is exactly the type of five-category production that can push a player into the top 25.
The biggest risk is also the simplest one. Maybe the power never arrives. Benge’s current 89.1 mph average exit velocity and 7.3% barrel rate aren’t the numbers of an obvious future 30-homer hitter, and his current .440 xSLG doesn’t guarantee that those extra bases will eventually become home runs. If he settles into a 20-homer, 20-steal player, he’s still going to be very useful in fantasy, but the top 25 argument becomes much harder. The reason I’m willing to bet on the upside is that he’s only 23, already has the contact and speed foundation, and has now made a clear mechanical adjustment that has produced a substantial improvement in his performance.
Alec Burleson
Burleson is the least obvious name here, which is exactly why I want him. He’s 27 years old, doesn’t steal bases, and isn’t a former top prospect that everyone has been waiting to break out. He’s simply become a really good hitter. Through the 2026 season, Burleson has a .298 expected batting average, .534 expected slugging percentage, and .383 xwOBA, along with a 92.0 mph average exit velocity and 11.2% barrel rate. His 16.6% strikeout rate gives him an excellent batting average floor, and his underlying production is considerably more impressive than the reputation he carries in fantasy circles.
What really catches my attention is that the improvement isn’t confined to 2026. Burleson’s Statcast profile has been moving in the right direction for several years. His average exit velocity has risen from 89.7 mph in 2024 to 91.0 in 2025 and now 92.0 this season. His barrel rate has gone from 6.5% to 9.5% to 11.2%, while his hard-hit rate has climbed from 41.7% to 43.0% to 49.6%. The fantasy question is whether the power progression has another step left. Burleson has already demonstrated that he can hit for average and avoid strikeouts, and the quality of contact now gives us a reason to believe he can sustain a higher home run rate. He has already gone deep three times in a game this season and has become important enough to St. Louis that the Cardinals reportedly resisted trade interest at the deadline.
For Burleson, the top 25 path is less complicated than it sounds. He doesn’t need to suddenly become a 20-steal player, because that isn’t happening. He needs to combine the batting average and contact skills he already possesses with the power that is increasingly showing up in the Statcast data. A .290 hitter with 30 to 35 home runs, 100 RBI, and strong run production is absolutely capable of becoming a top 25 fantasy hitter. The early 2027 market will be much higher on Caglianone or Benge, leaving a big opportunity for Burleson buyers.
The problem is that Burleson has less margin for error than the other two. With essentially no stolen base contribution, he has to hit for a high average and provide substantial power to justify a top 25 ranking. He’s also 27, so we’re looking for another level of production rather than simply projecting normal prospect development. If the power gains stall, Burleson probably remains a very good real-life hitter who lands somewhere outside the top 50 in fantasy. But if the improved contact quality and power continue to take another step forward, the market may be underestimating just how valuable a .290 hitter with 30-plus homers can be.
