The 2025 fantasy baseball MVP race is coming down to the wire, and the top two players are not players we expected when the season started. Based on ADP (according to Yahoo), we all thought the top players would be one of Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, and Elly De La Cruz.
That’s the thing. We all place bets with our draft picks, and the fantasy world very decisively chose the players listed above.
To be fair, they’ve all put up varying degrees of elite seasons. Shohei is still an immortal among men and a legit top 3 candidate for fantasy MVP. Judge is having another incredible Judgian season, though not quite to the historic levels we witnessed in 2024. Likewise, Witt and De La Cruz, despite strong seasons, came up a little short of the greatness they achieved in 2024 as well.
Nobody who picked at the top of drafts this past spring is regretting their decisions today. But they also (likely) didn’t pick the fantasy MVP with the top pick. Nobody in the first (or second) round did.
Now, before I declare my top two fantasy MVP candidates, I want to make a few things clear:
- To my knowledge, no official fantasy baseball MVP is declared at the end of each season. It might be a discussion that takes place in various leagues, group chats, and social media, but there is no official vote by a crowning body, and the “winner” is really whoever randos (like me) want to say it is in any given discussion.
- Fantasy MVP is largely a subjective title. Is the MVP the best overall player or the player that proved most valuable based on the surplus value they created from a given draft position? Again, there is no official MVP, so the standard is set by whoever wants to set it in any given discussion.
- I will take advantage of 1 and 2, and nobody can stop me.
- None of this is intended to be provocative or clickbait. Top player this year is debatable, but my top two are legitimately and undeniably having uber elite seasons.
That said, while we still haven’t reached the end of the fantasy season, and I’m not quite ready to crown a king, the fantasy MVP for 2025 will and should likely come down to one of two candidates: Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber.
I could spend hours of my time laying out the case for both. For your sake and mine, I will try to keep it short.
For starters, they are the top two in baseball in home runs at the moment, with Raleigh leading (51) and Schwarber two behind (49). Schwarber currently leads the league in RBI (119), and Raleigh is third (109). Both are top 10 in runs scored, and both have surprisingly swiped 10 or more bags.
The only standard stat category in which they are lacking is batting average. However, they pack so much of a punch in major counting stats, and most leagues seem to have adopted OPS to this point (both rank top 5 in the league in that category as well), so it’s hard to ding them too much there.
To be fair, Ohtani and Judge have been great, too. Ohtani holds an advantage in batting average and runs scored, also a slight edge in stolen bases. Judge has a significant advantage in batting average.
It doesn’t matter.
Ohtani and Judge were both top 3 picks by ADP. Rarely do we get seasons that compete with the Goliaths from such unlikely sources, especially Raleigh, who has never performed at anything close to this level and is doing it as a catcher. There’s a great argument to be made that he’s the top guy.
This is not one of those cases where a player like Trent Grisham goes from undrafted to top 100, adding tons of value to a squad out of nowhere. Grisham has been really good, but he’s not legitimately up for discussion for absolute top player in all of baseball. Raleigh and Schwarber, based on the seasons they’re having, are. And that’s why they’re worthy.
Schwarber’s ADP this season was 38, and Raleigh’s was 108, yet they are posting league-altering numbers. Assuming they stay healthy, both guys will hit 50+ HR, score 100+ runs, and knock in 120-130 RBI, with double-digit stolen bases. We expected and drafted Ohtani and Judge to do that, but nobody drafted Schwarber or especially Raleigh, expecting this.
That’s why they’re top two in the mythical MVP race right now, and I’m making it unofficially official right here!
I wouldn’t argue with anybody naming Raleigh fantasy MVP. He’s been 1 of the best in baseball this year, and given fantastic value for a 9th- or 10th-round pick. My own choice (matching my criteria only) would be George Springer. Top 20 on the Razzball Player Rater and an 18th-rounder in the RCL (of course I didn’t draft him anywhere).
Springer has been awesome too. Def one of the best values this year but not tops by my criteria
Hi Maks,
Another great column!Some intriguing matchups.
1. Would you start or sit Cam Schlittler at home vs Toronto?
2. Would you start or sit Tong at Cincinnati?
3. Would you start or sit Sproat at Cinn?
3. Would you start or sit Kelly vs Houston at home?
4. Boston is at AZ. I have both Ryne Nelson (AZ) and Bello (Boston) Would you start either or pass?
Thanks so much!!!!
Not a big play the matchups guy because it’s too unpredictable so I typically start everyone that has good stuff and a track record of success (even if it’s relatively short).
No guarantees here but:
Kelly is a def start.
On talent and stuff I’d start Schlitter and Tong but you never know what you’ll get out of rookie pitchers.
Nelson and Bello are solid plays too.
Thanks so much!!
Great input on Kelly! so glad that listened!
Between Nelson, Bello and Morton at home vs CWS, who are you most confident in a points league to start?
Really appreciate all your assistance.