There’s guys who are sleepers who you can draft around the last round of a draft and get a solid number three fantasy starter production like my Cody Bradford sleeper. Tanner Bibee is not that. Whether you pronounce “Bibee, baby” like the Notorious B.I.G. or not. As mentioned in the past, and will mention again in the present, if you were to lose your pitcher rankings right before your draft, rather than calling in a bomb threat to your league commissioner’s house to get him to postpone the draft — don’t swat your Swat! — you could instead just use K-BB%. It’s not everything, but that or K/BB gives you the gist for guys who will be good. Then the other thing you can do without any prep work is just draft starters who are on great teams or in great parks. Mariners’ starters? Yes, please and Woo. Petco and Metco? They produce solid starters in very solid environs. By the way, don’t ever say “environs” out loud or the person listening to you has the right to punch you. Brewers park, whatever it’s called, isn’t great for pitchers but their pitchers have been solid for many years now thanks to their coaches. Tigers coach their pitchers up and their hitters to, well, act like they’re facing their pitchers. The Guards are in this illustrious group too. The Cleveland Starting Pitcher Factory that was built in a bombed-out Old Spaghetti Factory has churned out starters better than its old environs gummed-up and spat-out mozzarella sticks. (Again, it’s okay to read and write “environs.”) With his K/BB (4.25), K-BB% (20.1%), K/9 (9.7), BB/9 (2.3) and environs, Tanner Bibee excels, but how and why are what make him special. So, what can we expect from Tanner Bibee for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are all on Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Tanner Bibee sleeper:
Tanner Bibee first jumped out at me when I was perusing Z-Contact%. This is the amount of contact a batter makes on a pitch thrown in the strike zone. Bibee had the 7th lowest. Here’s the top 9 (bottom 9?):
Not a bad list. It’s not everything, but think about what Z-Contact% means. The least amount of contact on balls thrown in the strike zone. These are strikes and hitters can’t touch them. That’s an excellent stat to excel at. The kinda hilarious thing is he’s 21st lowest (highest) on O-Contact%, the balls thrown outside the zone. Hitters are making contact on those balls, he said crossing his legs. To me? That too is excellent. Don’t you want hitters making contact on pitches off the plate? The only guys excelling at limiting contact in the zone and making contact out of the zone are Tanner Bibee and…Well, that’s it. Bailey Ober comes closest, but he’s 30th in O-Contact%.
Let’s look at that Z-Swing% too (percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the zone). Notice how Bibee’s is the highest on that screenshot? He’s third highest in the majors. This is not, in itself, a great thing. Think what it means: A hitter recognizes a strike and swings. Could mean guys are sitting on pitches, could mean guys throw a lot of strikes and hitters are pounding shizz from here to Shiz University. But what makes Bibee special is how he gets more hitters to swing at strikes, minus two starters, and is 7th in best for limiting contact on those swings. Ergo, vis-a-vis, therefore, hitters are swinging at everything he throws and missing.
“How does Tanner Bibee do this, Fantasy Master Lothario,” you ask while batting your eyes all cute-like. Tanner Bibee’s slider and cutter are nasty eh-eff. He has the 5th best slider in baseball with a .196 BAA, and a cutter with a BAA of .141. Zoinks! His fastball was hit hard, which is the one thing you can say negatively on him. Well, you can also say negatively about how he deejays weddings with two hours straight of the Full House theme song under the name, D.J. Tanner Bibee, but for fantasy the negative stuff is very limited. His four-seamer’s .282 BAA wasn’t great, but it was .243 the year before and, with his control, I’d bet he gets it back to good vs. things going more pear-shape. Also, can we talk about how everyone should be taught a cutter? You throw a cutter and you’re gonna be great, this is a fact, Jack! And John, Joe, et al, and five girl readers’ names.
As I said, this isn’t some crazy late sleeper. Tanner Bibee is currently going around 100th overall, would’ve been a top 50 overall last on the Player Rater with two more wins (he was around 75th as it was) and is entering only his third full season, the year many starters come into their own. This is about as easy of a layup as starters come with where you’re drafting him vs. the value you’re getting. For 2025, my Tanner Bibee projections are 14-7/3.30/1.10/191 in 180 IP with a chance for more, even a Cy Young-type season.
