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Please see our player page for Pedro Leon to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.

1. 3B Cam Smith | 22 | AA | 2025

The 14th overall pick by the Cubs in this summer’s draft, Smith skipped blissfully through the A-levels in just 27 games, blasting six home runs in 15 Low-A games and slashing .333/.421/.500 in 12 High-A games before rounding out the season with five games with Double-A Tennessee. Houston saw enough to target the 6’3” 224 lb righty in the Kyle Tucker trade. Smith gives the club a ready-soon third-base prospect in the wake of Alex Bregman’s departure, though with Isaac Paredes also in town, Smith may have to try some outfield.  

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The Pirates recalled 2B Nick Gonzales, who was slashing .257/.370/.450 with six home runs and one stolen base in 57 Triple-A games and striking out 28.6 percent of the time. He’s been better in June, slashing .270/.440/.460 with one home run and a 21.4 percent strikeout rate. He has to be on his game in the pitch selection department because his swing doesn’t have a ton of variability, and he’s no threat on the bases. Took him four attempts to score that one steal, and that’s no longer just a fantasy baseball problem. The 2023 version of baseball all but requires a team populated by functional baserunners. 

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Houston prospects tend to get a little extra bump up the lists from me. My first year doing these, some readers on Reddit came at me for having Jeremy Peña too high (fifth) on the list. I might never forget it: my first time getting cooked in the comments. I wasn’t familiar with the ways of Reddit yet, and to be fair to the Redditors, I wasn’t particularly adept at writing these blurbs to reflect my reasoning yet either. The other comment-cooking that comes to mind was Houston related as well. I had ranked Alex Bregman 9th among third basemen for dynasty leagues coming off his 41 home run season. I think Astros fans were especially salty because this happened during those early pandemic days when the trash-can hate was still fresh, and there was no baseball on the field to distract us or force them to pay the full-stadium consequences for their fuckery. 

Sorry for the jaunt down memory lane. It’s just, both of these memories wound up being foundational for me as a baseball writer. Something might look wrong to most readers today, but that doesn’t mean you should hesitate to say it. This gig requires a fair amount of future-casting, and that requires a fair amount of confidence on top of the competence. Mostly I just want to say thanks to all of you who’ve read my work between there and here. Thanks to all of you who chat it up in the comments. And thanks to the Houston Astros for developing good baseball players. The automatic bump to a Houston prospect has been useful since Yordan Alvarez was left off the Top 100 lists heading into his rookie year. It’s helped us to roster Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier and Jeremy Pena among others. Decent chance a couple people from this group vastly exceed their present perceived value in a similar fashion. 

 

Format: Position Player | Age on 4/1/23 | Highest Level Played | ETA

1. RHP Hunter Brown | 23 | MLB | 2022

Can Jose Urquidy hold this freight train off for the fifth starter spot? Hunter Brown is the most chamber-approved pitching prospect Houston’s had since Forrest Whitley. At 6’2” 212 lbs, Brown maintains impeccable balance throughout his delivery thanks to elite posture and strong legs. His ability to repeat has improved year over year to the point that his control is finally trending toward command. Hitting spots is still not his long suit, but Brown’s stuff is so dynamic, he’ll never have to be especially fine to retire big league hitters. In 20.1 MLB inning in 2022, he posted a 1.08 WHIP after recording a 1.08 across 106 Triple-A innings. The Houston development plan of piggy-backing mixed with starting all the way up prepares these guys for the life they’ll face as an Astro, waiting sometimes multiple seasons to truly crack the rotation. Whether or not Brown can buck that trend will come down to health across the roster, the club’s commitment to Jose Urquidy, and how Brown handles the back-and-forth role in which he’ll likely open the season.

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Here’s where the frontispiece would go, if I didn’t think that word was kinda nasty. 

Here’s a link to the Top 25.

Here’s a link to the Top 50.

51. 1B Triston Casas | Red Sox | 22 | AAA | 2022

52. RHP Andrew Painter | Phillies | A+ | 19 | 2024

53. OF Evan Carter | Rangers | 19 | A+ | 2024

54. OF Jasson Dominguez | Yankees | 19 | A+ | 2024

Triston Casas hasn’t had the season some expected, and Eric Hosmer joining the club muddies his playing time outlook, but he remains a high-probability major league bat. 

For all the talk about Eury Perez being huge and young with good command, you don’t hear much about 6’7” 215 lb Andrew Painter, but Painter has been every bit as dominant as Perez, racking up 109 strikeouts through 68.1 innings across two levels and posting a 1.32 ERA along the way. He threw seven shutout innings against the High-A Yankees his last time out, allowing two hits and one walk while recording eleven punchouts. Makes me wonder if they’ll send him to Double-A for September. 

Evan Carter has 22 extra base hits and 13 stolen bases over his last 39 games, slashing .333/.415/.605 over that stretch. He’s controlling the zone, too: 11.1% BB and 15.8% K-rates. He’ll turn 20 on August 29 and might be in Double-A before then. 

Gotta hand it to Jasson Dominguez for evolving his game to make plate skills his calling card. Or one of his calling cards, anyway. He’s already stolen eight bases in 19 High-A games, where he’s posting a .410 on base percentage and 16.9-to-22.9 walk-to-strikeout rate. The power is coming, too. He’s got 39 extra base hits in 94 games across two levels this season. 

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This post picks up where we left off Sunday when I posted the Top 25 Outfield Prospects for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball in 2022. While we’re here, I might as well include a quick link to all my work this off-season: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Prospects, the Minor League Preview Index. It’s been fun to explore the game system by system then position by position. Starting pitchers are coming up next, followed by relievers in one of my favorite articles to build every year (I’ve been working on it for weeks) before we ring in the new minor league season with a fresh list of Top 100 prospects. Can’t wait! This particular list could’ve gone on forever (in the sense that “forever” refers mostly to a pretty damn long time), but I stopped at sixty to avoid overstaying my welcome (I hope). If someone you expected to see isn’t on here please drop a line in the comments section.

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Some of these guys will have to move off the position, either because they’re blocked by a star-level regular or because they lack the hyper-elite twitch, reflexes, hands and arm required to make it as a big league shortstop, but for the most part, these guys will man their middle infields for the next decade or so. Some dynasty league veterans build minor league rosters populated almost exclusively by shortstops and outfielders. Solid plan, really. Shortstop might be the game’s deepest position at the moment, and it’s only getting deeper. 

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Nobody beats the book like Houston. Their prospect lists require close-reading and separate buckets of research because you don’t want to miss Jose Urquidy or Luis Garcia if you don’t have to. Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick both popped from relative obscurity onto fantasy baseball rosters in 2021, and that looks like the way it’s going to go with Astros’ prospects. I don’t know what it is that keeps their guys underrated in general. I guess losing the picks to the cheating scandal didn’t help, nor did the cheating scandal (though it would be pretty hard to argue that it didn’t HELP help in a macro sense). Doesn’t matter for our purposes. The Astros have proven they can teach hitting with buzzers or without. Although they’re not highly ranked around the chamber, and spots are at a premium on the big league roster right now, this list has some of my favorite sleepers for near-term fantasy value, especially at the top. 

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The Kansas City Royals can’t catch a break this year. Between Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier slumping and Adalberto Mondesi hurting and all the pitching prospects fumbling their first big chance, it’s all the Royals can do to put on a brave face and wave for their adoring public. 

Things seemed to take a turn for the better this week, with Ryan O’Hearn carrying his AAA fire over from Omaha and Emmanuel Rivera going 2-for-4 in his big league debut. But then, in his second game, Rivera took just one at bat before being removed due to wrist pain. No word yet on the severity, but wrist pain is bad for hitting. It’s a pretty irritating outcome. Rivera’s been hot all year as the Royals rolled out the corpse of Kelvin Gutierrez at third base. Can get fairly redundant watching this happen over and over again: teams drag their feet on promotions and miss their windows. Edward Olivares is still demolishing AAA while Nick Pratto and Bobby Witt do the same at AA. Royals could’ve had a whole new wave in mid May and be breathing fire by July. And maybe they would have if the young pitchers had played well. But hey their AA club won 19-to-4 on Tuesday, so they’ve got that going for them. 

Here’s what else I’ve been seeing around the game.

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I remember being really excited for my first crack at a public top 100 back in September of 2019. I actually started building it in early August because I had some time to simmer before my big debut at Razzball, and I wanted to come in hot with a ranking that reflected the way I see the game. 

Click here to see that Top 100 Prospects for 2020 Fantasy Baseball

and/or click here to stretch to the Top 150 Prospects for 2020 Fantasy Baseball

As the deadline approached, the true scale of the task came into view. 

In order to rank the top 100 minor league players for fantasy baseball purposes, you have to rank every single minor league player for fantasy baseball purposes. I suppose this is intuitive, but I didn’t realize as much on the front end, back in 2019. I also didn’t realize that’s a lie I was telling myself. It’s not that I have to rank every player, but I have to know generally where I would rank every player. 

Even that’s not true. Something I learned doing the team’s organizational rankings (FIND LINK TO TOP TENS) top ten lists the last two off-seasons was that I needed more processes for eliminating players than for finding them. It’s not altogether different from dynasty roster management in some senses, where your squad is like a bonsai tree: if you’re not pruning the dead and dying branches on the regular, your tree will not grow. Early on in that org ranking process, I figured I’d just make each list as long as the org was deep. Seems fine on the front end, I suppose, but I realized I wasn’t really making any difficult decisions. I could always just rank a guy 11th, or 18th, or whatever, so who really cares about the 10th ranked prospect? Just write the blurbs and cover the system. I didn’t have to grind out the work and make real choices like I do with just ten. The same played out with the 100. Now that I’ve set that limit, it helps me shed light on the Korry Howells and Alec Burlesons of the world, and it helps me push guys like Nick Pratto up to where they belong because I just have fewer branches on the tree. 

This year, for this list, I realized what I really needed was buckets into which I could put every player so I could really digest the task’s enormity. I tend to get lost in these spreadsheets. Make a tweak. Check some player pages. Find some video. Watch, think, drag and drop, rinse, repeat. I have no idea how many hours are in this spreadsheet, but it feels like most of them. Some days I know I can’t open it because I’ve got stuff to do, and time does not exist in that realm. Anyway, here’s how I broke it down. 

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Today we put the finishing touches on one of dynasty baseball’s toughest positions. 

People just don’t trade speedy outfielders who can hit. 

Or at least they shouldn’t. 

Sure a Jarrod Dyson might get vacuumed up at basement pricing every now and then, but if you’ve got Starling Marte, Victor Robles or Oscar Mercado, you’re probably not that interested in the offers you’ve gotten for them. Speed players who contribute across the board are the dodo birds of our game. Outfield and middle infield are typically the only places to find them, apart from the occasional Jose Ramirez or prime-age Paul Goldschmidt. You flat out need some speed covering the green if you’re hoping to compete in the category, and I’m just not the type to advocate punting a category in 5×5. Trying to win leagues over here–not tell tales about fading saves and steals but hanging in with the top group anyway. 

Anyway, best to get ‘em young while they’re cheap. I wouldn’t be paying up for all the guys like Pache who show aptitude in the lower minors, but if I can take a fistful of freemium fliers on guys like Jasiah Dixon and Jeferson Espinal, I’m doing that all day.

Please, blog, may I have some more?