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I wanted to start doing our commenter league sign-ups today, but ESPN still hasn’t opened their doors.  Who’s got the keys over there?  Does Karabell need someone to come shovel his driveway?  So, instead of sign-ups beginning today, we’re going over a mi amor in the outfield.  I already touched on Steven Souza briefly when he was first traded away from the Nats, saying, “(He) went to the Rays in the three-way Myers trade.  Souza is a little cheaper than Myers and helps build up the Rays’ horn section.  Souza might be the last remnants of Bowden fluffers in Washington.  Get a load of this– Hmm, maybe that’s a bad turn of a phrase when talking about fluffers.  Anyway, look at his last few years:  11 HRs, 25 SBs in 2011; 23 HRs, 14 SBs in 2012; 16 HRs, 30 SBs in 2013 and 18 HRs, 26 SBs last year in Triple-A.  You, “Please don’t tell me the bad news, I refuse to listen!”  Sorry, You.  He looks like he might not hit .240 without some favorable BABIP luck.  Yes, the Rays have their 2nd Desmond Jennings.  Call Souza, Desmond 2 Too.  This won’t be the last time you hear about Souza this offseason, and he could be an absolute steal in drafts.”  And that’s me quoting me!  See, I wasn’t lying.  I told you I’d talk about him again.  Little did you know that 40% of my talking again about him would be what I already said and 20% more would be talking about how I was saying the same thing again, then 10% is punctuation, 10% is spacing and 20% is new stuff.  Razzball:  20% New Stuff Daily!  Anyway, what can we expect from Steven Souza for 2015 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

He will be 26 years old in April, when he finally gets a starting job.  This wasn’t his fault, he had major league competent outfielders in front of him.  What the age does tell us is he’s likely coming in and ready to contribute.  If he doesn’t contribute this year (not a strong possibility, but it’s there), he could be labeled a Quad-A player and find his junk in a trunk on the side of a road in Florida, while taking pictures with a strung-up alligator.  (A strung-up alligator is different than a 50-year-old woman, who looks like she’s 65 from sun damage and smoking.  That’s a strung-out alligator.)  His strikeout rates in the minors haven’t been pretty.  Kinda like your favorite strung-out alligator.  Last year in 21 games in the majors, he struck out 7 times.  Before you scream small sample size — the girls never complained — I know, it is.  He does strikeout a lot though.  Sample size or not.  It took him six years to progress past High-A partly because he struck out a lot (and they couldn’t find a position for him to play).  I alluded in the opening to Desmond Jennings, but only on the surface does that comparison hold up.  Jennings’s problem isn’t huge Ks, it’s more weak-sista hitting.  You know what weak-sista hitting is, it’s the last neo-Nazi picked in the prison yard for shankball.  Watching video of Souza hitting a home run had me think of Charlie Blackmon.  Not the black guy that lives down the street from you named Charlie, but rather the Rockies outfielder.  Just looks like him swinging, doesn’t profile exactly the same either.  Blackmon doesn’t K that much.  Oddly, the guy that Souza most profiles as that’s been mentioned in this post is Wil Myers.  Another name that hasn’t been mentioned, but I could see a comparison to is Carlos Gomez.  Not the player Gomez has grown into, the one he was when he first came up.  The guy that hit .258 in 2008 with power and speed.  Unfortch, Gomez was 23 in ’08 and Souza’s way past that, so I think that’s gonna affect him long-term.  In the top 60 outfielders, I gave Souza the projections of 58/12/65/.234/22 with lots of upside.  He’s a guy I definitely love for the flyer, especially when he’s ranked on average around pick 236 (I have him at pick 166).  Okay, so that was more like 18% new stuff.

   
  1. Frank Grimes says:
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    I’ll take 18% of new grey anyday (insert heart emoji)

  2. bossmanjunior says:
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    There’s my boy!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @bossmanjunior: Gonna lead the Rays to the playoffs, right?

  3. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Sorry dude, the 18% part blew me away! Had an another draft yesterday. More or less, the same as last time (Feb 1). Some trends…

    A. Cargo continues to be seriously underrated.

    B. Pitching continues to be overrated.

    C. Was able to snag Abreu (10), Cutch (11), E5 (29) and Rendon (30) with my first four picks!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • ashtray says:
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      @Ante GALIC: In what world are any of those guys falling that far?

    • Cram It says:
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      @Ante GALIC: I don’t see how you can gleen any useful trend information from these bizarre drafting rooms you’re in.

    • PK says:
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      @Ante GALIC: I’m curious to know what nine players were taken before Abreu and McCutchen.

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @PK: In order…Kershaw, Trout, Price, Sale, Hernandez, Yelich, Stanton, Cueto, Scherzer

        • K-DOGG says:
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          @Ante GALIC:
          I could see that in a CBS Head-to-Head league except for Yelich. Yelich, WTF?

    • The Balking Dead says:
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      @Ante GALIC:

      Are these mock drafts with people just drafting like morons? Or just free public leagues? Either way, you’re not gaining any useful information with 2 top 5 type guys falling that far, then Edwin AND Rendon falling to 29/30… We don’t have to hear about every public league you draft in.

    • Jax says:
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      @Ante GALIC: I couldn’t agree more with the 4 above replies. Not trying to be a dick, but those aren’t “trends”. Actually, they are quite the opposite by being the exception. Your “leagues” are the ONLY leagues in which those players’ ADPs are that low. Even in the Yahoo! 12-team mocks that I do, which are routinely f’ed by stupid picks, those players you listed NEVER go that late….ever

      • Swaggerjackers says:
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        @Jax: Are we all getting trolled by Ante? It seems he’s successfully getting a rise out of people daily by posting irrelevant (made up?) draft details.

        Cheers!

        • Can you imagine..., the gallons of human spit says:
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          @Swaggerjackers: ante’s just posting info, he earlier mentioned he didn’t like people trolling him. Don’t be the guy saying “she asked for it”. Yelich going that high should be an indicator to not read anything into those mocks.

        • Jax says:
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          @Swaggerjackers: It’s quite possible. I honestly think he has to be making this stuff up and trying to seem like he’s “out-smarting the room”. And by doing so, he’s doing a disservice to this site, but we’ll obviously leave that up to Grey and the rest of the Razzball guys to determine and deal with

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: A. Yeah, ESPN has him ranked in the 50s so it makes sense B. Yup, always will be C. Crazy

  4. Yescheese says:
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    Definitely not Gomez.. Souza can take a walk! PECOTA has Souza for 25/25. Excuse my drooling, I’ll be drafting Souza everywhere, especially OBP leagues!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Yescheese: PECOTA also has the Rays winning 117 games, I believe

  5. bossmanjunior says:
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    General question, what types of players would you target or avoid in a shallow 10 team h2h league? In one sense, because the replacement pool is deeper, it makes sense to take more risks with high upside players. However, because its h2h, it seems like an injury prone player like Tulo could hurt because its not an aggregate accumulation of statistics. Also, with a playoff system, you want all of your best players to be around in the end. You have said in the past that streaky hitters like Bruce are not ideal for h2h, but couldn’t you say the same for hitters with stark home/away splits like most Colorado hitters? If you valued Tulo and Desmond exactly the same, which would you prefer in this format? Thanks for the insight!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @bossmanjunior: In a shallow league, you don’t need to avoid Tulo… You can just replace Tulo if he’s not performing… I’d prefer Desmond in any format… Streaky players could be a pain, but streakiness is more confirmation bias on most players

  6. Squidblob says:
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    Grey, forever keeper league question, keep 8 total. League is 6×6- batting categories include R, RBIs, HRs, SBs, OBP, and Ks; pitching is the standard categories plus K/BB.

    I was planning on Goldschmidt, Kinsler, Hanley, Beltre, Brantley, Victor Martinez, Max Scherzer, and Cole Hamels.

    Other options I can choose from are Kolten Wong, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Holliday, Jonathon Lucroy, Jordan Zimmerman

    I’m keeping Hamels over Jo-Zimm because I trust Hamels’ historical consistency better than Zimm’s one year jump in K/9. My question is with the bats. VMart is a stud in this league because even if his HRs drop, his Ks and OBP still make him a top 30 player, but his surgery has me nervous.

    Should I keep someone like a Betts or Bogaerts instead of VMart?
    Also should I keep Kolten Wong over Kinsler for 2B?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Squidblob: Yes, Bogaertsover V-Mart…Yes, Wong over Kinsler

  7. Harry Hardenberg says:
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    this is honestly a guy completely off my greydar, looking at his minor league numbers, i am more than intrigued. thanks for the post grey!

  8. chico says:
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    Grey,
    8 team, NL only, standard 5×5 roto auction league with$280 budget. Can keep 7 of the below:
    Frazier $10
    D Gordon $1
    Rendon $7
    Hamels $21
    Teheren $8
    A wood $2
    Harvey $10
    Storen. Benoit and broxton all $2

    Of note, pitching goes very high in this league with top group of starters all going over $40

    Thanks for the help

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @chico: No closers

  9. Wake Up says:
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    Had my first mock draft last night…unforchse, I couldn’t make it so it got auto drafted…
    C W Cares
    1B EE
    2B Wong
    3B Arenado
    SS Alcides
    CI Pujols
    MI Boneface
    O1 Cespedes
    O2 Marte
    O3 Ozuna
    O4 Soler
    O5 Pollock
    UT Vargass

    S1 DeGrom
    S2 Salazar
    S3 Gio
    S4 Cashner
    S5 Cingrani
    S6 Petit
    P Melancon
    P Britton
    P Mejia
    P Boxberger
    P Parnell
    P A Sanchez

    Just Gosh Johnsoning.
    This is a team drafted according to your rankings. I just went through and took a player every 12 spots, or so, to see what the team would look like.

    First SP was drafted in the 9th round.
    First CL was drafted in the 16th.
    First C was drafted in the last round…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wake Up: Team looks great, it looks better than the team where I did the same exercise (I’m gonna post any day now)… I also have the Boxberger and Bobby P. Kinda scary how similar our teams are actually…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: I went:
        1B,3B,CI,O1,2B,O2,O3
        Hope I didn’t step on your punchline…
        People have been accusing me of being you for years…the bastards!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          The bastards! Hey, wait a minute…

          Yeah, I likely went the same way with drafting… Though I took an SP earlier, I think…

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: Yeah, I’m thinking 4th round this year unless power falls to me.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, that sounds about right

              • Wake Up says:
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                @Grey: Same exercise. Different rankings. What say you?
                C W Cares
                1B Abreu
                2B Wong
                3B Arenado
                SS Tulo
                CI C Davis
                MI Odor
                O1. Puig
                O2 CarGo
                O3 Soler
                O4 Ozuna
                O5 Avisail
                UT K Davis

                S1 Samardjihad
                S2 Iwakuma
                S3 DeGrom
                S4 Richards
                S5 Salazar
                S6 Hutchinson
                CL Perkins
                CL Felix
                CL Mejia
                P Giles
                P Cmart

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Looks solid too, but you’re taking someone else’s rankings and using my general jazzmatazz on who I like… I will say the hitting feels a tad better on this one…

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: That one was the NFBC ADP. Was curious to see the difference. Believe it or not I’m actually sticking to guys I like…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yup, players I like too… Or maybe that’s what you meant by players you like…

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: So does the pitching, no?
                    Not a lot of speed and generally less balanced. Of course drafts don’t go this way, but interesting none the less…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, agreed… The pitching feels slightly riskier, but not bad at all… Prolly just me seeing Hutch and Richards and worrying for no reason… I do like them both though

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: I’d rather have Hutch over Petit at 6…but I hear you. Yeah I think we are more on the same page this year. Feels like guys I like are going later, but it’s early…starting to get the bug!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, same here, wish ESPN would open already… Rudy drafts his first league tomorrow and I’m jealous…

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: A couple differences so far…
                    I am gonna take another shot with Longo if he falls I think…
                    I do like Shields in Petco.
                    And you’re on board with Rendon and Dickerson this year so that makes me happy. Looking to get Ozuna and Soler everywhere. I do like Puig now for this year. I don’t really like Tomas if he keeps climbing. I do like the narratives a lot! Straight forward analysis bores me a little. I Am drinking. I do like that you have Altuve lower than most others. I still hate Ellsbury and hope he goes in the second round of every draft I’m in. I do like that I get to chat with you on the daily. I don’t like Teheran still and it seems like you’ve cooled. I like taking Bruce this late, never took him before. Andrus is finally draft able. Maybe I’ve said too much…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Agreed on all points… I love a good narrative!

  10. Jvslyke says:
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    I’ve been plotting Souza as my 3rd OF since your blurb after his trade

    Strategy questions, 10 team standard ROTO, I’m keeping Mccutchen with my 5th pick. 2nd rd has me nervous. Ideally Encarnacion or Rendon fall to me and this isn’t an issue but I don’t think either will. If it comes to my pick and I already have Mccutchen should I go ahead and take Donaldson over Bautista? I remember your article from last year on grouping OF’s with corner guys and know Donaldson will most likely be the best available. Other options are draft Bautista, Desmond or even Puig and hope that Arenado falls to me which I’m not sure will happen. Best case Rendon or Encarnacion fall to me in the 2nd and Arenado in the third though I don’t see that happening.

    I also didn’t have a chance to chime in on your Dirt Nasty reference last week. I pushed hard for 1980 to be my wedding song…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jvslyke: That would’ve been the best wedding song ever…. Yeah, take Donaldson

  11. ElBoss says:
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    Grey this season starting ASAP, can you please try to get on three podcasts a week, you are the man and those podcast radio video shows make my day!!! Thanks Grey!!

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @ElBoss: we’d need at least one a week first, something not accomplished since nov 29th or so.

  12. Rhaoul Duke says:
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    Greg,

    You are high on Tyson Ross for his ability to generate K’s and the evidence supporting his “stuff” being comparable to the elite pitchers in the league. I am trying to decide between keeping Ross and Cobb, which I know your rankings say Ross, so I am leaning towards Ross. My concern with Ross is his drastic home/away split. Is that something you anticipate improving or just something you are willing to accept as part of the package with Ross? As always, thanks for your opinion.

    • Rhaoul Duke says:
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      @Rhaoul Duke: Apologize, auto correct on my tablet changed your name to Greg. Many apologies Grey.

      • Ra'zball al Ghul says:
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        @Rhaoul Duke: Hello Greg

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I call him George, personally.

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Sky: does he register as George Someshade when on the road?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Rhaoul Duke: I’d go Ross, but they’re obviously a coin flip…

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Rhaoul Duke: Cobb feels safer

  13. L-Boogie says:
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    “If Shields goes to the Padres, I could see getting slightly more excited about Shields…” (just trying to bring the New Stuff % down another notch).

    Are we talking Phoebe Cates red bikini excited or more like Diane Keaton Something’s Gotta Give excited? Or somewhere in between?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @L-Boogie: Those are my only two options? How about Goldie Hawn in First Wives Club?

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: Goldie in overboard?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Rawr

  14. El Famous Burrito says:
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    What the Hell does ESPN do that takes a full week to set up?

    Are they bogged down trying to figure out whether its Jung Ho-Kang or Jeong Ho-Kang?

  15. the swinging says:
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    Rizzo hits .320 with 44 homers. I had a dream about it.

  16. Sky

    Sky says:
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    The picture they have up of James Shields in the video still on ESPN/MLB…ouch. Did he survive a barn fire? Looks like Christopher Lloyd halfway through his transformation to becoming Uncle Fester.

    • frankGrimes says:
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      @Sky:
      What that dude on reddit say that deserved Sky’s wrath?

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @frankGrimes: Let’s be fair; I didn’t rip on him, I straight trolled him and I did a damn fine job of it.

        He basically said ‘Razzball has zero analysis and a bunch of poor hacks for writers who make obscure pop culture references to make up for their lack of knowledge…ps, check out my website that only has 4 articles in the last 3 months!’

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That’s four more than Berry’s written

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Is that Jesse Plemons?

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                I’m worried you have a tumor pushing on your occipital lobe at this point and only allows you to see Jesse Plemons. Big Friday Night Lights fan?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’m turning Plemons into lemonade

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    Plemonade is probably the name of the meth he cooked in Breaking Bad.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      You watch Better Call Saul?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Nope, I only watched BB on Netflix. DId you catch it? Seemed like an odd spin-off.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I thought the same thing going in, seemed very odd… It worked though, the first episode at least

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Is it the same team of writers from BB? I didn’t dig too far in. Would’ve made more sense to flesh out Gustavo’s backstory more to me but the actor who plays Saul is good so I could see it working. Just odd that the character who basically played Falstaff got the show.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, same showrunner (EP), so it has a similar look and feel which goes a long way… The tone is a bit lighter, but it’s not a sitcom… It was very entertaining, though I wonder how far it can go without as much pathos

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Yeah, I hope they don’t shit on the legacy of Breaking Bad…I’m almost ready to go watch the whole series again.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, it seems like they’ve avoided that

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Cool, hopefully after season one it shows up on Netflix streaming. Will be nice to revisit that world.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sky: Link?

  17. Ra'zball al Ghul says:
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    I dunno, Souzaphone strikes me more as the quad-A platoon streamer type player at best… mostly, as you mentioned, due to his age. He’s been better the last 3 years in milb I suspect because he was older than most everyone else. What he did when actually age-appropriate in milb was quite meh. Here’s hoping he can keep it going

  18. GhostTownSteve says:
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    The guy who won the NFBC Main Event hunertgrandprize ($100,000) took Scherzer and Waino who had ADP of 28 and 31 respectively…

    Albright I think our divergence points to the complexities of setting and format. I think in the NFBC, the draft strategy you’ve laid out for pitchers is actually a weak one. I think in that format you have to have at least one pitcher from the top 8 or so. I think you can go with 2. Then you go no pitching for evah and completely avoid all the lower first tier and second tier aces. Then about pick 150 or so you jump back in the pitching pool. And you also get huge mileage out of Chapman. When you can’t stream, your K rates and your wins are managed in a totally different way. And you really have to think about relievers and saves in a different way. A save punt becomes viable because 9 starters give you a huge W/K advantage though can strain ERA/WHiP depending. That’s why guy like Chapman and Kimbrel help out so much. They fill a slot with guy who gets saves but is not that far of a low end starter K total.

    All very interesting.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: Better than taking Bruce and Wil Myers, that’s for sure… But if he took Jose Fernandez instead of Waino, we wouldn’t be talking about him… I will say the deeper the league, and if there’s no waivers, it changes the game from RCL in a huge way

      • Swaggerjackers says:
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        @Grey: Building off of that, I took Fernandez, Cliff Lee, and Matt Cain in a league last year. Sure looked like a solid staff to me! *puts head in oven*

        • GhostTownSteve says:
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          @Swaggerjackers:

          There’s always a luck component. As I’ve talked about elsewhere, playing the odds, the top starters have actually seemed to be more reliable than the top hitters year in and year out.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  19. river-z says:
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    Hi Grey – love the site.
    Question: have you written any posts on this site about what to do when you need to rebuild your fantasy team? I’m in a keeper league where I really don’t like my keepers. I might just quit the league, but I’d be interested doing a rebuild.

    (my “keepers,” such as they are: Longoria Bautista Pujols)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @river-z: Thanks! I aim to win every year, you should too… Your keepers aren’t bad…

    • Fungazi says:
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      @river-z: I’ve never done a full rebuild, but I would probably try to mostly draft young (no one over 29) and also if you are out of the race at the end of the year, trade guys like Bautista for younger players, injured stars, and picks to teams that have a chance to win.

  20. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Also, I don’t think I can get on board with Souza.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        I think history is against him. There’s very little precedent for guys to break in at his age and have a ton of success. I’m not sure what it is. Not feeling it for some reason. Maybe it’s the Tampa thing? I can see your thinking though. I might get interested if he falls far enough.

        Here’s a crazy think for you. Steamer only projects 3 players to hit the 20/20 mark this year and none of them are named Trout. Steamer is projecting Trout for 16 steals.

        Steamer’s 3 20/20 guys are Carlos Gomez, Souza and Joc Pederson.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, saw that on Steamer… I love Pederson too, but I’m worried his team isn’t going to play him enough… Age is concern with Souza, but like Beane likes to say, it’s not a guy’s fault if there’s just no room in the major league club… That looks like Souza biggest flaw, being in the wrong place at the wrong time

  21. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Favorite razzball handles:

    The Episode of Growing Pains Where Mike Caught Bonner Doing Coke in the Bathroom (or something like that)
    Joey Joe Joe Jr. Shabadoo
    Ra’zball al Ghul
    Gordon Shumway
    Mantis Toboggan MD

    • Mantis Toboggan MD says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: thanks, free doctoring for you any some time in the future.

      • Mantis Toboggan MD says:
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        @Mantis Toboggan MD: i’ll save ya from the HIV!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Swaggerjackers: Nice, we’ll need to take a day to check on it, so Wednesday could be the day

      • Swaggerjackers says:
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        @Grey: Wednesday could be the day!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  22. Big AL says:
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    I know all leagues are different and things change as the league goes on. On average in a 12 man Roto RCL league What are you trying to average in all the batting and pitching categories ? Give me rough idea what your shooting for before draft day in each category. Just need a guide line.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big AL: There will be a post for this at some point soon

  23. mcBlunty says:
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    long term keeper league h2h 20 cat league, keep 8 – 2 hitters, 2 pitchers, 2 wild card (any position), 1 25 yo or under at any position, and 1 rookie (has to be eligible for rookie of the year coming into the season), these are my top options

    Hitters
    A Rendon
    N Cruz
    T Frazier
    B Hamilton

    Pitchers
    Scherzer
    Strasburg
    Harvey
    Cueto
    G Cole

    Rookie keeper
    Taiwan Walker or Carlos Correa

    As you can see i am strong with pitching and I am light on early round draft picks as i traded my fist and others to make a run last year, who would you keep, also i can trade players to get picks, been offered a 1st, 6th and 7th round picks for Strasburg, worth doing? Thank you.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sure, sounds decent

      • mcBlunty says:
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        @Grey: thanks, appreciate the in sight but you didn’t answer anything? I can keep 8 and i listed 11, who are you not keeping from above, thanks again

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @mcBlunty: Not Harvey, Cole and Cruz

  24. Clint says:
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    I know you tend to keep bats over pitchers in a keeper league, Grey, but I was wondering: is there an age you cut a bat off at? I know generally they seem to slow down in their mid 30’s or so and I keep wondering if the bottom’s gonna drop out on Joey Bats this year. Should I stick with him or keep someone like Bruce, Segura, or Chris Davis for my h2h league instead? We keep 10 and my other guys based on Mike’s rankings appear to be Bryce, Puig, Machado, Altuve, Seager, Shark, Cobb, and Freeman.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d keep Bautista

    • Swaggerjackers says:
      (link)

      @Clint: Gotta keep Joey Bats over Bruce, Segura or Crash.

      If you’re worried about him for the future, maybe try to flip him mid season.

    • Nick says:
      (link)

      @Clint: Keep Bautista. Even a down year from him still beats out your other options by a good margin.

  25. Mike says:
    (link)

    Have some really tough keeper choices. My team is pretty stacked in my dynasty league. We keep 15 players every year. All players are attached to round values. It’s a H2H, 5×5 league. Help me pick my 15 please! Here are my choices

    Abreu(1)
    Tulo(1)
    Stanton(1)
    Carlos Santana(6)
    Trout(7)
    Harper(9)
    Edwin E(15)
    Anthony Rizzo(18)
    Wil Myers(23)
    Corey Dickerson(30)
    Cole Kalhoun(30)
    Danny Santana(30)

    Strasburgh(3)
    Tanaka(1)
    Scherzer(10)
    Alex Cobb(24)
    Jose Fernandez(21)
    Carrasco(30)
    Arrieta(30)
    Garrett Richards(30)

    I’ve made numerous trades which is why I have multiple first rounders. It isn’t an issue to keep multiple players in the same round as they just drop down into the next available round that I’m not keeping a player. Help! Who’s my 15?!?! Thanks!

    • Nick says:
      (link)

      @Mike: Not sure who’d you be able to get back with those first round picks, but I don’t see keeping Tulo there. Abreu and/or Stanton would be justifiable depending on what your alternative would be with keeping the pick. If the picks are late first, I’d keep Abreu and Stanton and throw back Tulo. If early first, I’d consider throwing back Abreu as well. I definitely wouldn’t keep Tanaka if that’s not a typo. I’d ditch Strasburg and Myers as well. Carlos Santana would be my next choice for a guy to drop, but you could potentially keep him over a first rounder if the pick is better than the player.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      All hitters and Strasburg, Scherzer and Cobb

    • Catcher Fever says:
      (link)

      @Mike: two team league? I’m guessing your cat is keeping the other half of the top 30 players?

      meow.

      • Big AL says:
        (link)

        @Catcher Fever: For reals or it’s a personal top 10 ranking list. Purrrrrrrrr……

      • Mike says:
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        @Catcher Fever: I’m just that nice. ;)

  26. G says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    Would you rather keep Harvey or betts as my 10th round pick this year in my head to head league. For this keeper league you draft a player a round earlier in the next year and can keep any player until they become a second rounder. Thanks in advance

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Betts

  27. tank1 says:
    (link)

    Just starting to prepare for upcoming season and having a difficult time narrowing down my five keepers. I am definitely planning on keeping Goldschmidt (21st round) and A. Jones (4th round). My remaining choices are generally high on upside but with little track record. All of these guys can be kept for draft values of 23rd round or later (25 round draft). Who would you recommend keeping? Thanks.

    G. Cole
    A. Wood
    C. Carrasco
    M. Betts
    J. Pederson
    G. Polanco

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Betts, Cole, Polanco

    • Catcher Fever says:
      (link)

      @tank1: the value for those 3 SP is too good. I’d keep them and draft hitter after hitter. You’d be making those 3 hitters avail to you anyway…

  28. AtL Fire Sale '15 says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! I’m assuming it gets boring, always being the man! Quick question, do I keep Jorge Soler or Jake Arrieta? I’d be able to keep them around the same round for both. Thoughts? Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Soler

  29. Colonel Angus says:
    (link)

    In a 12 team dynasty league with 12 MLB keepers and 5 MILB keepers I had plotted keeping Norris, Swihart, Berrios, Souza and Pompey as my minor leaguers. However, recent moves have netted me Miguel Sano, Archie Bradley & Robert Stephenson. Now I have a conundrum. I’m now keeping Sano, Bradley, Stephenson, Norris and EITHER Pompey or Souza but I just can’t decide. Should I wait on Spring Training to get a sense of who to keep or is one clearly better than the other?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wait as long as you can

      • Colonel Angus says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thank you, sir!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  30. J_FOH says:
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    doing a slow draft is like trying to watch a movie and people calling your house every five minutes

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Awesome analogy!

      • J_FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: someone doesn’t have a case of the Mondays!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Is it Monday? Thanks for bumming out my Sunday!

          • J_FOH says:
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            @Grey: thanks for trying to make me feel bad about drafting zimmerman…it didn’t work

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Hehe

              • J_FOH says:
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                @Grey: now I paired him with Cole and Gio , go ahead let me have it

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  I thought I already let you have it?

                  • J_FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: you beat me up in text messages, I need my public Grey beating….when is enough enough Senor Sky

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Loving where Gio’s been going… Cole I like a lot too…

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    With Zimmermann, you’re obviously drafting too much pitching… It feels like you’re drafting scared…

                    • J_FOH says:
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                      @Grey: Im feeling quite good right now, might even try to trade down

                    • J_FOH says:
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                      @Grey: wasn’t feeling Dickerson as much as you and i feel safer with Brantley

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      ah, cuddlebugs…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      And next year at this time you’re gonna be feeling Dickerson more than Brantley

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Could the two of you stop talking about feeling Dickerson? It’s uncouth!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha

                    • J_FOH says:
                      (link)

                      so its wrong to compare our feelings about our dickersons?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Keep said conversations between closed doors…and preferably with all hands above the table.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      This isn’t a peeing contest

                    • J_FOH says:
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                      but its a truth circle and there is no table

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      well, for some it’s an excel validation table

                    • J_FOH says:
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                      validation, what happened to sharing is caring? what do you want me to do post ridiculous mock draft results?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Technically, I’m having a hard time seeing this draft as any different but maybe that’s just because I’m going crazy with my team.

                    • J_FOH says:
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                      well we are paying 20 a person so I wouldn’t mind not donating to someone else

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I don’t think I’m donating, it’s just funny how my draft is working out. I am just taking the guys I want as they’re being given. The way others are drafting is driving most of the ship for me but looking at my team from start to finish, it looks like I’ve lost it.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I hear that

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    You’ve salved JFOH’s butt hurt for now. Round 12 is around the corner, though…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I’m here to salve, if nothing else

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      ‘Greysus Salves’

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      HA!

                  • J_FOH says:
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                    @Grey: 9th pick of the 11th for Gio felt good, liked Stroman too but boom or bust sky took him

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, love Gio there, really do… Cole might’ve been unnecessary, but it’s not terrible as long as your hitting’s okay

                    • J_FOH says:
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                      EE, Rendon, Brantley, Frazier, Cespedes, Ozuna, Wong

                      I tweeked strategy a little bit because it’s H2H, FAAB bi weekly bids with daily lineup changes

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      You know, it’s pretty sexy… Dickerson instead of Brantley would’ve been even sexier… Can’t argue with Wong though

                    • J_FOH says:
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                      seriously came down to Weiss vs Francona

                      ooh I just drafted my man crush minny miggy

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Nice, loving Avisail

                    • J_FOH says:
                      (link)

                      12th round felt good to me since people are starting to grab crushes

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah that’s fine

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      there are worst patterns

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      what about wurst, though?

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      steaming wurst

                  • J_FOH says:
                    (link)

                    what do you mean lost it? you only need to have like half your team bounce back

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      The pattern I drafted in is odd as well.

  31. Bertsball says:
    (link)

    Love the site. Never commented though. Figured I needed the almighty Grey’s help on this one. I inherited a shit team in a 10-team roto league. Standard scoring. Everyone keeps 4 and I have the first pick. Keeper’s right now are:

    Miggy
    Joey Bats
    Scherzer
    Arenado

    Yes I realize that I’m overlapping positions. Those are the best guys I have on this god forsaken team.

    Anyway, I was offered A. Jones and J. Upton for Miggy.

    Should I do the deal and drop Scherzer from my keeper list or roll with Miggy at 3rd since it’s a shallow league and outfield production can be made up more easily than 3rd base production?

    What say you, Grey?

    P.S. Thanks in advance!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Do the deal and drop Scherzer

      • Bertsball says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        You’re the man! I appreciate the reply.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  32. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    I was thinking about Matt Adams and Jason Heyward. For both of them, a lot their draft slot is going to depend on whether or not you think they’re going to hit some home runs. Both have shown the ability to hit them at a decent clip and also to not hit them at a decent clip. I was kind of wondering how the Cardinals, as an organization, approach offense and the home run. Over the last 5 years, the Cardinals have hit the 20th most home runs in baseball. Their park played as the 17th toughest park, so they are under-performing even relative to their park effects. (Side note, ESPN park effects always feel a little wonky to me, but I’m going with them here). The teams who have hit fewer home runs definitely play in some of the biggest ball parks, but they are also bad teams for the most part (really the exceptions being the Giants and Dodgers). The Cardinals have managed to be very successful without hitting a lot of home runs.

    The Red Sox and the Angels are interesting organizational comparisons with the Cardinals. Fenway is the 4th toughest park in which to hit a home run, according to ESPN (seems counter to popular opinion but I can see it given the way that park seems to play) yet the Red Sox have hit the 4th most home runs over that 5 year span. The Angels play in the 8th toughest park and they have hit the 10th most home runs over the 5 years.

    During that same span, here are the batted ball ranks for the three teams:

    LD%: STL 4th, LAA 24th, BOS 8th
    GB%: STL 2nd, LAA 8th, BOS 29th
    FB%: STL 29th, 20th, BOS 3rd

    It’s always tough to tell how much ball park and personnel dictate strategy and vice versa, but it seems possible that the Cardinals preach line drives and ground balls. I also suspect that they preach opposite field hitting. Might be worth looking at those numbers too.

    So Heyward seems like he was already trending towards a LD/Oppo approach. You almost wonder to what degree the Cardinals looked at Heyward and saw a player that fits them.

    As far as Adams goes, his FB% was a career high last year but his HR/FB rate plunged. I seem to remember in looking at him mid-season last year that he was in fact getting away from pulling the ball.

    So I’m kind of thinking maybe I temper my HR expectations for both of them, but….

    Strangely STL is rated by ESPN as the 4th best park for run scoring in general. It’s the 3rd best park to hit doubles. So while I temper my HR expectations, I continue to view it as a favorable. Also, this will be surprising, but the Cardinals have stolen the 3rd fewest bases in MLB over the 5 years.
    On another note, the A’s have stolen the 5th most. I say this a lot but, it’s funny how perception of teams (A’s no running, Cardinals running team) will not always match reality. And how long those perceptions continue to linger even when the landscape shifts. The one I hear all the time still is how Texas is such a good hitters park even when it no longer appears to play as such.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I always wonder when people say an organization preaches something… Can you change a hitter that dramatically? I tend to think an organization drafts and cultivates certain types of players… When McGwire went to St. Louis, did he get changed or did he just keep doing what he had been doing? If Chris Davis went to St. Louis would he become Matt Holliday? Adams and Heyward are separate hitters, and I don’t think the Cardinals organization plays into them both. Maybe Adams, since he’s been with them and they ‘cultivated’ him… Park factors do matter, but Adams and Heyward should be able to hit it out of any park. They’re not fueled by the park.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I hear you, Albright. I will say, there’s no doubt in my mind that organizations do in fact coach a particular style from MLB on down. Organizations have an approach for pitchers and for hitters and they both acquire players who match and they also coach player to adopt the style. I also don’t doubt that some organizations are more or less flexible within their own framework. I will say that it does look like there’s been a decent sized shift in Adams rate of hitting fly balls to the left side. I’ll also say that anecdotally, there’s this idea that’s been out there for awhile now about there being a Cardinal Way that encompasses both on and off field stuff.

        • GhostTownSteve says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve:

          SBs seem interesting from this lens because it’s easy to see how the organizational stance on running impacts the final numbers. I bet most people would be surprised to know the Cardinals had the 3rd lowest total over the last 5 years.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            That is a definite, for sure… If a club doesn’t want to run, and a player requires a green light, that could hinder them…

          • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
            (link)

            @GhostTownSteve: again, nobody that follows STL would think that. Go back over last 5 years (just in your own head, since you don’t follow STL), and try to come up with basestealers in our lineups, at any given year. Until 2014 there weren’t any.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, I don’t doubt it…I’m just saying that’s likely something they build from the outside in…In other words, they draft players that can adapt to that and they trade or sign players that they can make work with their style…

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            In this case it seems like 2014 Heyward is a text book Cardinal from the last 5 years. League average FB rate. Opposite field approach. I bring it up because aren’t we all kind of asking, “would the real Jason Heyward please stand up?” If last year’s Heyward looks like a Cardinal and the Cardinals go out and get him, should we think that maybe last year’s Heyward is what we’re going to get? Dunno. Be interesting to see these things play out.

            Remember the Homer Bailey/Ryan Hannigan thing last year? Sometimes stuff is junk and sometime stuff is junk. Hard to sift is the problem.

            • GhostTownSteve says:
              (link)

              @GhostTownSteve:

              For every Homer Bailey story, there’s an Even Meek. I was on Dee Gordon last year but also Lincecum bounce back. I’m thinking a lot about how whether it’s all confirmation bias or whether there’s a difference process that leads to the good results rather than bad.

              I know you every year have those predictions where you feel it in your water as my old Irish girlfriend used to say. You had it with Goldy, with Brantley and this year it’s Aranado. What do you think separates the really strong from the weak intuition?

              Part of what I think it might be for me is preponderance of evidence. The universe making a strong case right in front of my face. Not just a few scraps.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                I think the more on the limb you are for many guys, the more you’re going to look foolish… But as long as you’re correct more than foolish, it’s working, right? I was also right on Mark Reynolds the year he broke out, then backed the hell away from him after that… Pinpointing why you’re right and wrong is interesting thing… Arenado feels like a no brainer to me, but he really needs to up his power for it to work… But upping power in Coors feels very doable, but more than that, and why Bailey was wrong and the other guys were right is… I think it comes down to skills. Skills is the determining factor. Gordon could steal 60 bases. That’s a skill. He just needed the opportunity. Goldy, Arenado, Reynolds, Brantley, they’re all skills calls. Bailey wasn’t a skills call. Teheran and Cobb were. Kluber is skills. Samardzija to me is skills too. Corey Dickerson is skills.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, that’s fair on Heyward… Last year with Cardinals type runs and RBIs compared to Braves last year, would get Heyward in the top 20 for OFs… Yeah, I do remember the Hanigan thing, it was good insight…

    • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: you clearly haven’t followed the Cardinals (maybe since the 1980’s) if you think there’s a “perception” as them as a running team. Till Wong/Bourjos showed up we haven’t had basestealers in years.

  33. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
    (link)

    Not the most exciting thing to talk about, but I’m kinda bored and I never saw anyone bring it up in the comments. What’d you think of the Travis Snider trade to BAL? It opens up guaranteed time for Polanco, which I think was your biggest concern with him. Snider moves to a nice hitters park and could be a decent late rounder. Obviously the bigger news is for Polanco. This move do anything for either guy in your top 400 you think?

    Oh, and it’s been snowing for about 72 straight hours…I need baseball badly.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      You’ll have a Travis Snider Deep League Thoughts post in the near future. I was a fan even prior to the move to BAL. Even happier now.

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        Nice! Yea, I’m with ya there, the move to BAL just solidifies it. There’s a shot at 20 HRs in that bat. You probably saw how his batted ball distance jumped, which if that holds steady in Camden, well, yea, for a late rounder, that’s worth a shot.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Yup, I noted that and some other details about him in my writeup. Plus Baltimore seems to have found a niche at working well with their sluggers of late.

    • GhostTownSteve says:
      (link)

      @MattTruss:

      Looks like great landing spot for Snyder. Probably be on the good half of a DH platoon in a great, great park for LH power.

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        Whereas PIT was not so great for LH power, yea, very nice spot for him. Orioles depth chart has him as starting RF, but we’ll see.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Polanco was always going to play. Snider will now play and could finally do something… I moved Snider into the top 400 due to the move…

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        Oh my fault, thought I remembered seeing you were concerned about Polanco losing PT somewhere along the lines. Must have misremembered…Brian Williams syndrome I guess.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You conflating?

    • J_FOH says:
      (link)

      @MattTruss: I wore flip flops and shorts yesterday

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        @J_FOH: I went snowboarding…to each their own

        • J_FOH says:
          (link)

          @MattTruss: I can do that too

          • MattTruss

            MattTruss says:
            (link)

            @J_FOH: I could wear flip flops and shorts too, haha

            • J_FOH says:
              (link)

              >: @MattTruss: to the store? i live where its 75 all the time and the snow is an hour away

              • MattTruss

                MattTruss says:
                (link)

                That’s cool, mountain I ride is 20 mins from me, there’s two actually that are that close, practically my backyard. I like having 4 seasons, but I’m a New Englander, I gotta complain about something. Summer’s too hot, winter’s too cold, it’s what we do around here. I wouldn’t trade my place in the middle of the woods for much. Heck, I have to drive find my nearest neighbor, I like it that way.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Sounds like James Caan’s place in Misery

                  • MattTruss

                    MattTruss says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Ha, exactly!

                • J_FOH says:
                  (link)

                  @MattTruss: I like the 365 day flip flop and seeing hot moms everywhere I go lifestyle

                  • MattTruss

                    MattTruss says:
                    (link)

                    werd

                  • Happy Vegans says:
                    (link)

                    @J_FOH: Good call, Mr FOH! Hit the mountains in the morning and the surf at sunset (or viscal verde… I think that’s the phrase,right? I wouldn’t know, though, cuz I’m not an edumacated baseball righter) and that’s a beautiful day!

  34. Mike B says:
    (link)

    Is this the current post to come seeking wisdom? Joined a 12 team h2h 5×5 plus TB…5 player keeper. (No MI or CI, 4 OF plus 2 utility spots. 8 P slots and 8 total bench spots)
    I am 1 of 2 new owners so we are having a compensation draft to select our keepers. I would love to get some feedback on who the best values are among this group, round kept attached:

    Rizzo 7
    Abreu 8
    Altuve 6
    Samardzija 11
    Trout 1
    Duda 27
    K. Davis 15
    Cruz 10
    Lester 8
    Machado 18
    T. Walker 17
    Utley 10
    Moss 6
    Lynn 11
    Encarnacion 1
    Votto 2
    Sale 4
    Reyes 3
    Zobrist 6

    I included some obvious(to me) bad values to remove my own bias. Have to keep at least 2 pitchers.

    Thanks, and I’m on board with Souza!

    • Nick says:
      (link)

      @Mike B: Abreu, Rizzo, Altuve, Trout, Machado, Duda, Cruz, K. Davis would be how I’d rank the hitters. Could see moving the last four around depending on your personal projections for them, particularly if you have strong feelings on regression for Cruz and Duda. I wouldn’t keep any of the other hitters at their rounds.

      For pitchers I’d go Sale, Lester, Lynn, Walker, but I wouldn’t be that thrilled with any of their value.

      Do you have the first or second pick in the dispersal draft?

      • Mike B says:
        (link)

        @Nick: 2nd pick, but it will be snake format so I’ll get 2 picks. Waiting to hear on my draft order…just found out 1sts cannot be kept. No trout.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Abreu, Trout, Altuve, Cruz Samardzija

      • Mike B says:
        (link)

        @Grey: omitting Rizzo because of having 1b in Abreu?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

          • Mike B says:
            (link)

            @Grey: ok, I’m drafting from that pool of players against another owner. So pure value, Rizzo ranks among top 2-3?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yup

  35. Fish says:
    (link)

    Does anyone have any statistical sense on whether baseball teams sit a lot of their regulars the last week of the season?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Depends on specific players and teams… I don’t like H2H for this reason and would end the season a week early due to it

      • Fish says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I always liked when Yahoo! had the championship week run 2 weeks. That was ideal for making the sample larger in the most important week of the season and eliminating the effect from sitting players. Heck, I wished Yahoo! offered the option to make every H2H match 2-weeks in length.

        Small sample sizes be damned!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, two weeks helps, definitely…

  36. Don says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey. Did I do good in NFBC 15 team so far?
    Jones, Felix,CarGo, Pujols, C Davis,Cespedes, Wong,Arrieta, Papelbon,Benoit, Hosmer,Alcides,Fiers,Souza,Salazar and Saunders. Two closers at end of run.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Looks solid

  37. SteveNZ says:
    (link)

    OK, excuse me if this has been asked already, but I’m just looking at your“Save your druthers for your mothers, these are (this is?) my druthers.” tier.

    Who is the LAST guy from this mob that you’d have as your #1 in an H2H league? I know Hughes is ranked the lowest, but surely it’s not him?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, he was ridiculously solid last year and see no reason why he can’t repeat

      • SteveNZ says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Interesting. As you know I went relievers-only last year, which worked pretty well. Just considering whether to mix in some starters – maybe fill my hitting roster almost entirely and then see whatsis are around in the 9th or so.

        Just to maintain (my) interest…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I think you should go relievers again and grab SPs if you need them in media res…

          • SteveNZ says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I guess I’m just considering the possibility of someone else doing it – no one did last year – as it would dilute my advantage considerably.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              If a few people do, it would reverse and there would be an advantage to grabbing SPs, but if one more person does it, I don’t mind it… Except when you two face each other… Do you hear ramblings that they’re going to follow your lead?

              • SteveNZ says:
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                @Grey: Nothing specific, though someone did say at the end of last season (when I killed them all in the regulars standings) that he’d be surprised if someone else wasn’t doing it next year.

                Though I worry about this every year and no one ever seems to do it. Just have a feeling someone might this time.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I bet they won’t do it, or do it as well as you… Did you win the league last year?

                  • SteveNZ says:
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                    @Grey: Er, no. This was the one where, after hitting 40-50 more HRs than anyone else in the regular season, I hit ONE during semifinal week and got knocked out.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Dah!

                • Kid A says:
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                  @SteveNZ:

                  It takes stones and a level of commitment to actually go all-in on the strategy that makes most people steer away from it on draft day.

                  I think 14 teams and below it is a solid philosophy, especially in an RCL format. The caveat being if you have 3+ other bozos pulling the same move. Then you just flip and go upstream.

                  I think you and I were the only ones to really commit to it in the FCL last year, and we finished well – I think you finished in 2nd place. Granted, my pitching was an absolute nightmare and you were sucking marrow out of Jack’s discards. I think I lost my point…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Kid A: I tend to do that to people

  38. Bernard Gilkey says:
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    I don’t think the strikeouts were holding him back so much as the significant character/off field issues. It really delayed his timeline. He was able to produce while striking out quite a bit. He was also able to really cut down on them at AAA last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Perhaps, but it didn’t help him there were solid OFs in front of him either

  39. J-FOH says:
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    Prezii DM’d me…he’s alive!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yes! Tell him to come by!

  40. J-FOH says:
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    whats with all the fancy changes?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No idea… It’s not supposed to be different… I’ll need to investigate…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: looks fixed

  41. JB says:
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    Hey Grey, would love your advice please…My league (10 team HTH 5×5 category) is changing its roster format from 10 hitters, 10 pitchers, & 7 bench slots to 13 hitters, 9 pitchers, & 3 bench slots. So, are pitchers more valuable now since I can only roster a maximum of 12 compared to years past when I rostered 16? On the flip side, there will be far less pitchers drafted, hence, more quality available on the waiver wire.

    Similarly, are hitters less valuable now since they only make up 1/13 of my offensive stats compared to 1/10? However, there will be fewer quality hitters available on the waiver wire with 30 more hitters drafted than past seasons. I’m confused on how to analyze this so thanks for the help!

  42. J says:
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    hey Grey! i enjoyed your write ups the past couple of seasons & loving this site glad i found it two years ago very insightful !

    i’m in the boston area & literally snowed in- crazy snow here, but hey its new england.

    just getting back in the swing of things for fantasy baseball (we will prob have the draft mid to very late march). i know it’ll will vary from league to league but what was tricky last season we were a weekly lock league & the austraia game one or 2 weeks before the season started was tricky because once those started we couldn’t switch our roster around- but would we be in the clear this season / season starts in april, just checked looks like sun april 5th or are they planning on that over seas game in march?

    this is a 8 team h2h points w/ espn

    are there players who i should target due to extra position availability?/ on the flip players who may lose availability at a position for 2015?

    – for example i think i read that carlos santana won’t be eligible at Catcher, mauer looks like just at 1b, miggy just 1b, chris davis 1b/3b, i like rendon this season & i like him even more that looks like hell have eligibility at 2b/3b

    thanks I’m looking forward to all the articles keep up the great work!

    • J says:
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      @J:

      also last season for pitchers we started 3 Starting pitchers & 2 relief pitchers

      would you up it to 4 SP’s & 2 RP’S?
      OR 3 SP’S , 2 RP’S & 1 pitcher slot so you can put either 1 RP or sp, last season i didn’t even use real RP’s, i started pitchers who were eligible at both SP/RP in the RP slot- everyone except one team did that too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Go to my newest post

  43. Jon says:
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    Grey I must say I owe you a daiquiri for the amount of wisdom you have given me!
    Love the sleeper posts…very insightful.
    Avisail, Pollock, Saunders, or Souza??? Which one would you take if you could only take one this year?? What would you rank them in terms of order to draft???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! I rank them in the rankings…

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