When perusing for 2020 fantasy baseball sleepers — I peruse, ya’ll! — this jumped out at me like weird nipples on men at a public pool, Scott Kingery had a top eight line drive rate, tied with Cody Bellinger. The top eight is not as elite as you might imagine, assuming you’re not still imagining weird nipples on strange men. There’s some elite guys in there — the aforementioned Bellinger, Freeman, Trout, Merrifield — but it also has guys like David Fletcher and Domingo Santana, which is why I’ve liked them in the past. So, is Kingery part of that elite line drive rate group or the other bleh group? First off, Fletcher is his own beast, or rather non-beast. A Blech Ness Monster, so to speak. He slaps the ball like he’s playing Whack-A-Mole with a broken mallet handle, and is a batting average play, if anything. He’s more akin with the guy who’s ninth on the line drive rate — Adam Frazier. So are Kingery and Domingo Santana akin — Dokingo Scantana? I’d actually suggest Domingo is Fletcher with bad contact rates. Domingo had a similar fly ball and ground ball rate to Fletcher, but Fletcher had a 10% strikeout rate (elite) and Sunday Santana’s 32% strikeout rate is diseased. Good illustration of this is Domingo’s launch angle is 200th overall, and Kingery’s is 50th. (Fletcher’s is even more slappy at 254th.) So, Scott Kingery has nothing in common with Fletcher or Domingo, but does that mean he has a lot more in common with Bellinger, Trout, et al (not the Israeli airline), or rather…So what can we expect from Scott Kingery for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

There was one guy I failed to mention in the top eight line drive rate that is actually similar to Kingery — burying the lede! Jorge Polanco had a near-identical line drive rate, similar fly ball rate and hard contact rate. Last year, Polanco hit 22 homers. Obviously Polanco’s got a lot less speed (4 bags). So, think about how valuable Polanco was, but give him steals. As Our Commissioner Manfred says as he stares at a baseball, “Your juices flowing yet? Good!” Now, Polanco hit .295, which is a bit better than Kingery’s .258, said Mr. Obvious. Does Kingery have any chance of hitting for a better average? You’d think with those line drives, right? I am simpatico with your rhetorical questions! The percentage of pitches Kingery swung at outside of the strike zone went from 39.4% to 33.7% while his percentage for balls swung at inside the strike zone went from 64.6% to 73.4%. That is tremendous. He’s still having contact problems (70%) and swinging strike (15.3%) issues, but he’s at least figuring out the right time to swing. At 25 years of age and only going into his third full year, his 29.4% strikeout rate last year can drop dramatically. Will it get to 16.5% and produce a .295 average like Jorge Polanco? That seems ambitious, ya bishes (that rhymes). He could hit .270+ pretty easily though, and, throw some luck into that, maybe he hits .280+. So, 22 homers, .270 and speed? Yummers! How much speed is the only thing left to figure out. He looks like he’s fired out of a cannon on the basepaths. His sprint speed is elite-ish. None of that’s transferred to his steals. He had 15 steals last year in 19 attempts, which is just okay. *sad trombone* He has 30+ steal speed, but I don’t know if we see it. More times on base (from a better average), a different manager and more confidence from being in the league another year should all help. There’s a cheap Fernando Tatis Jr. lurking here. Call him Raccoon-fur-nando. Or not. Your call. For 2020, I’ll give Scott Kingery projections of 80/22/69/.271/24 in 582 ABs with a chance for more.

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The Great Knoche
3 years ago

Just got Price at 179. Until that Cyst popped up he was on a run of 14/15 starts with 3 ER or less. Injury risk sure. Round 12 for a guy with a greater than a K per 9, and potential to strike out 200, I’ll take that.

Dave D
Dave D
3 years ago

Villar on waivers…. $10 mil salary dump

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Well, he and Ohtani are at least two traps that many will still fall into.

LOLmets
LOLmets
3 years ago

I could see the Astros batters hitting less homers this year.

That Twitter account Jomboy has all these videos of the Astros hitting homers on off speed pitches that they knew were coming becasue of a banging sound coming from the dugout alerted them.

Ronald
Ronald
3 years ago

Also, what is the outlook on Montas for 2020? I have him for $9. Is that a good sell high price?

Ronald
Ronald
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

What about Evan White for Frank Montas? I make $6 in the deal also.

Ronald
Ronald
3 years ago

Would you take Luis Robert ($7) straight up for Ronald Acuna ($67) in a ottoneu fantasy baseball dynasty league. I also have Mookie Betts.

Ronald
Ronald
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

$400, but 40 man rosters including minor league players. It’s a dynasty league.

The Great Knoche
3 years ago

Hope you are right about Kingery. Wanted Escobar, but he was next on my list.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Ha, That was my first comment today. Stop releasing these for guys we haven’t picked yet. I had him targeted a little later but moved him up for fear of him going quicker. I didn’t think he would last 25 picks today.

Dave D
Dave D
3 years ago

Your turn to pick if you don’t already know

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Yeah, good call on Ryu. Great price tag.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Pretty much.

Well, you tried to screw me out of a sleeper yesterday with your Ahmed post but, alas, I still prevailed and got him. Today, however, you succeeded with Kingery. He went 147 before I could nab him with 150. I got him my first DC with pick 164. So I figured you’d screw me tomorrow by posting Kevin Newman, so I jumped the ADP by 57. Thanks a lot, ‘pert!!!! ;-)

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Yeah, I’m owning those two everywhere. Dozier seems like a good value there with some upside.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Are you worried about Matheny? He seems like a terrible hire and likes to platoon.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

O’’Hearn?

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
3 years ago

Yeah Dozier will probably be fine. Matheny at the helm is scary though.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
3 years ago

On the other hand, check out Eric Lauer’s Home/Road splits. I’m dropping him off my queue

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
3 years ago

He was great in 2019 at PetCo, terrible away. That is how I deployed him effectively last year. He’s losing Petco where his ERA was HALF of what it was on road. Ouch!

LOLmets
LOLmets
3 years ago

Phillies in 2020 Harper will be top 5

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

For Giancarlo and the rights to pay Ellsbury….

Dubs23
Dubs23
3 years ago

Random trade question: 12 team keeper league with 9 keepers plus 3 minor leaguers. Contracts go up each year and attached to a corresponding letter. A – E. E is the last year a player can be kept and must be sent back to the pool after. My Bregman $42E and Fried $5B for his Olson $21C, Laureano $4B, and a free Royce Lewis. My middle infield would still have Baez, Polanco, and Rosario. Let me know what you think.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
3 years ago

Just finishing up the 13th round over here in the Beat Donkey Teeth NFBC League. Hows the slowest draft ever (Beat Grey League) going, guys?

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Hopefully Grey only times out a few more times!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
3 years ago

Ha! Man, its a bit tedious, but I really want to take some of Greys $ again this year. I paid this years entry with some of that coin afterall. Maybe he wins it back, but I’ll make him earn it if he does.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Ha! Three months is a bit severe. I can understand if it was a week, but why displace the poor dog so long? That seems severe. What’d she do when you announced your prize in the Postseason tournament?

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

We got hosed!

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

I have sexier names!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Just remember, numbers win over names. Ive seem some pretty boring rosters prevail. There’s no way Ohtani will return value on his NFBC ADP of 74. Just a sexy name.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
3 years ago

Yea Dave, but I got Ohtani at 98!

Gimme those 120 ace innings plus some sweetener offensive stats when he gets a week off from pitching.

DonnieD
DonnieD
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
3 years ago

I am feeling better with Ohtani at 125. Thanks

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Hopefully she lets you reinvest your earnings into 2020 contests. I can already tell you’re more dialed in than last year.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Donkeys 1st 4 picks are better than yours.your 2nd thru 4 will not be as good as they were in 2019 IMHO.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

A Donkey of the People

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Hearts, minds and asses

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

No BS, Grey, Id totally take yours. Turner and Mondesi are similar as ate Buehler and Gioloto, but I would way rather have Darvish than Synd, and Alonso over Vlad. I don’t like the Jansen pick but no worse than Ohtani.

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

There’s a ton of risk in DT’s roster, “120 IP of “Ace” numbers “, PFFT, like the first 100 and so innings after TJ are guaranteed command, guaranteed ace numbers, “Turner and Mondesi are “similar “, lol, didn’t know Turner is a free swinger coming off shoulder surgery…

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Which great pitchers struggled after TJ? Jose Fernandez? Darvish? Even Dinelson Lamet looked sharp.

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Jose Fernandez , 64 innings year after TJ, Yu, 100, Lamet 73 of 4+ ERA, hardly “120 innings of Ace numbers”…, that simple…

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

How much recovery time did those guys have after TJ compared to Ohtani? You guys go ahead and keep doubting, check back in September.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Fernandez and Lamet didn’t pitch until July in their TJ returns. Darvish didn’t pitch until June. You also didn’t include any of their minors rehab innings which Ohtani won’t require since he’ll have a full winter and spring of throwing. Terrible cherry picking of stats. There’s no fair comp for Ohtani, stop trying to fit him in your box (pun intended).

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
3 years ago

Lol, maybe next year Grey can let Donkey recruit BDon and The Itch, to help draft the “expert” team…, seems “Beat Donkey Teeth” sounds like an easy task….

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Hernan
3 years ago

Where is Rudy or did he go to FantasyPros.com to fix their broken Draft Evaluator?

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Tell him hockey blows away football. Weekly games are for the weak!

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

You guys are so mean to me!

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
3 years ago

We enjoy taking our time to pick. Without having Razz Rankings and projections yet we have to actually look at stats and Hard hit rates, and Z-swing Rates and all that jazz. It takes a long time to decide.

Everyone in your league must just be using Karabell’s way to early top 300 list of NFBC ADP. IT goes quicker for those people.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Sounds like we have a league vs league bet brewing.

Doesn’t take long to pick, if you have done all of the work before you are the clock.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Best cumulative overall ranking for the whole league or best average overall ranking?

Winner get the “Why the @#?! are we drafting during Thanksgiving dinner” trophy.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

That works. A bunch of bad teams bring down the 1-2 good teams.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

If your league beats our league, then I will donate $50 to the charity of your choice.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Tell you what. I will donate money in either case. If your league wins, then you choose the charity. If our league wins, then Donkey chooses.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

“The Donkey Fund”

The Great Knoche
3 years ago

I’d want Buehler

Smitty
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Yes!!

TC
TC
3 years ago

Is Bauer as a 4th and Conforto as a 14th worth trading to get Buehler as a 19th. I’m already pretty stacked on my keeper group, but don’t want to throw away too much trade value if it’s not worth it.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  TC
3 years ago

I’d make that trade for Buehler.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  TC
3 years ago

Buehler

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  TC
3 years ago

Buehler

The Great Knoche
3 years ago

You couldn’t have waited until after he got drafted to publish this one?

Liked my picks last night. Willie C and Franmil in rounds 8/9. That’s .270 and 75 HR in round 8/9

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  The Great Knoche
3 years ago

Yeah, I like Willie C too. Good pick. Your team looks really good so far. This is going to be one though league!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Dave D
3 years ago

Tough league

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  The Great Knoche
3 years ago

Willie C gets 600 plus at bats he cud easily hit 40 himself.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

Yeah, good pick, I like Benintendi there too. If I didn’t use my first two picks on OF I might’ve grabbed him as well. Could potentially rebound to 20/20 .280 I believe