If you got into football a little early (shame on you) and stopped paying attention to baseball, you probably missed out on what Salvador Perez did. He got 158 plate appearances for the Royals down the stretch and hit .331/.361/.473 with three HRs.

Of course that is a slightly limited sample, he had a .362 BABIP and won’t be 22 until May – all red flags.

So, why do I, Albert Lang, like him? Well, he had tremendous success in the minors last season: .290/.331/.437 across AA and AAA. He is also a contact machine that doesn’t strike out a ton, which is fine if you hit the ball well (hello, BABIP). Perez had a 29.2% line drive and 41.5% ground ball rate last year. He hit few fly balls and even fewer (7.9%) left the park. He also wasn’t blown away at the plate: 8% swinging strike rate.

Even if the BABIP comes back to hover around .300, he should bat .290. In addition, he should smack 8 – 12 HRs, score 50 runs and knock in 60. You know what Yadier Molina will do? He’ll bat .280 with 10-15 HRs, 50 runs and 65 RBIs. Molina is safer, but where’s the fun/value in that, you ninny?

According to Mock Draft Central, Molina is the 179th player and 10th catcher off the board. Perez is the 347th player and 26th catcher off the board. According to Fleaflicker, he’s ranked 352nd overall.  All and all, I’d much rather have Perez at that price.

Mostly, I’m just trying to be a company man and reinforce the reasoning behind Grey’s ranking of Perez over Molina.

  1. Albert Lang

    Albert says:

    An additional question: Perez v Wilson Ramos in a dynasty league…your thoughts?

  2. MH says:

    ….Did you just call me a “ninny”? I haven’t been called a “ninny” since the Beatles all had the exact same hair, and I wasn’t even alive when the Beatles had the exact same hair!

  3. Albert Lang

    Albert says:

    @MH: Anytime you can first confuse someone with an insult, then get them lost in thought, you have to do it!

  4. TheNewGuy says:

    In a dynasty both C’s seem like similar guys to me, solid averages and developing pop.

    10 team keeper, got Morse and can keep him for 1 yr ($6) or 2 yrs ($9). Which do you likey? Any risk he might fall back down to earth, or is he legit.

    Also is an OBP league and I know he ain’t up there to walk, but wanna be sure his AVG keeps his OBP above the mean .340 mark.

  5. Albert Lang

    Albert says:

    @TheNewGuy: Thanks for weighing in. I see Ramos as more powerful but less in teh average category, but they are close.

    I dont buy Morse is a .300 hitter with a 21% k rate and 12% swinging strike rate. Still, should hit .270-.280 with 27 HRs. That’s a near top 10 1b, so he’s probably worth the 2 yr $9 contract.

    With that averaged, he should be around a .345 OBP. It isnt a great keeper, but as long as it doesnt block anything its good value.

  6. The Truth says:

    Great write up, he was a sleeper on my board for sure.

    @thenewguy …. “which do you likey?” … really? Likey? are you 10?

  7. @The Truth: Truth, the Truth.

    Using likey reminds me of Tommy Boy for some reason….makes me warm and fuzy

  8. Alex says:

    So what you’re saying is…good, sneaky lower tier catcher who will cost me very little and compare favorably to the back end of the top 10/12?

    If so, I like the words you speak.

  9. @Alex:

    Yes, way to sum up my 500 word comment perfectly in like 20 words….but yeah, no reason to do a 9-12 ranked catcher with Perez out there

  10. Blue says:

    Lucroy or Perez? I have Jesus Montero but i’m waiting for him to get his eligibility.
    (5×5 OBP H2H 16 team ESPN league)

  11. A2K says:

    The Persistence of Perez

  12. @Blue: Oh, I’ll take Perez. Lucroy is nothing special…. .265/.310 type, Perez wont hurt your ratios…

  13. TheNewGuy says:

    Thanks man for answering my question earlier. And yes The Truth I do like the word likey :)

    Seeing as not many are taking advantage of your free advice atm, I’ve got one more keeper question for you Al. Same sorta question only with Gio Gonzalez this time, can keep him for 1yr ($8) or 2yrs ($11). Now I love Gio and his K potential, and do wanna keep him long term, the only thing is his walks keeping his WHIP high. Do you think he can cut the walks down to a reasonable level over time (like Moore, Kershaw etc, maybe not to same extent) did last year, and is there any stats that us fantasy players might be able to use to determine future improvements in control?

    Or am I overemphasizing the walks for a young pitcher, and they should go down as he matures.

    How many years would you go with?

  14. @TheNewGuy: Hey keep the questions coming. I love talking about my and your fantasy teams and leagues, I know people like to say no one wants to hear, but I do.

    I think Gio K’s 200 batters for the first time this season. i dont think he’ll ever get his walks under control to be an upper echelon type, but those K’s are hard to replace. There isnt much to determine control, you have to look at BB rates and see if there is any optimism or if they change the type of pitch they are throwing (Like hanrahan did last year and cut down on his walks). Until there is some change, we have to assume the status quo will continue.

    I think you’re overemphasizing the downside of the walks. Walks mean more pitches which mean more chances at Ks, he’ll be fine, just not elite. 2 yrs at $11 seems good to me. but he’s an SP, so i’m probably only want a one-year deal.

    Make sense?

  15. chata says:

    @Albert Lang:

    caught a pod-cast that featured joel henard and albert lang .

    are you that same albert lang ?

  16. TheNewGuy says:

    @Albert Lang:
    Is that because of the injury/unpredictable nature of SPs? Im hoping that Gio will continue to grow into a strong no2 and was thinking he’ll likely be worth more than $11 in future so he’s worth 2 years. Is this a rule you have with SPs then?

  17. @chata: I am indeed. what’d you think of the pod? we record live almost every monday

  18. @TheNewGuy:

    I try to shy away from SPs because of the unpredictability/injury risk. If healthy, Gio is worth the $11 next year, but that’s not a given. I think you can also find cheap pitching, so it’s not that hard to replace Gio, whereas you’re in a bind if you’re down $11 for nothing.

    It’s more a philosophy than a hard and fast rule, it’s not wrong to keep Gio for the $11 for two years, I’m just a risk adverse fantasy player

  19. chata says:

    @Albert Lang:

    just started listening , as joel and i are in a slow mock draft , and he provided a link .

    it use to be , that i could set up to receive “reminder e-mails” , but i don’t
    see that available to me , this year .
    i will certainly try to remember to check out the pod-cast listings on mondays ,
    so as not to miss your regularly scheduled airings .
    do you guys have a live , inter-active chat-room ?

    also , is this held under the auspices of Baseball Digest ?
    wasn’t that bought out a few years ago by Paul , who started the 911 site ??

  20. @chata: What mock are you doing with Joel?

    Yeah, I still get the reminder e-mails, hmmm odd.

    We do have a live interactive chat room as well.

    Joel kind of handles all the back end stuff, I do know it’s under the auspices of Baseball daily Digest, but not sure who owns what really….

    • chata says:

      @Albert Lang,

      it’s a 16 player /25 rounder comprised of 8 or 9 from the CouchManagers’ Keeper League and a few other notables like Ivar (Planet 10) Anderson , Joel Henard , and Scott Gilroy (911 ?) and probably some other writer-type guys that i’m lucky just to be competing against .

      It is run via e-mail under the direction of Richard Justmann , who is the commissioner of both the CouchManagers’ Keeper League and JOML .

      Last year , our 1st , was won by Matt Adair (<==lucky stiff) .
      Matt runs this mock on yahoo as a league .
      However , as no managing substitutions are allowed , it is strictly a
      competitive way to judge our drafting skills .

      14 position players and 11 pitchers …. 5×5 roto .
      since there are no substitutions … all 11 pitchers are "going" everyday .

      this year , after finishing WELL back , i took papelbon in the 6th , and then not another pitcher until rd #13 , when i took buchholz .

      i may be in trouble , here .

    • chata says:

      @Albert Lang,

      maybe your friend , Joel , would give you his team to publish and comment

      there’s another regular Razz reader taking part in the draft ,
      but i don’t want to “out him” .

      maybe he’ll come forward (?) and give you his team .

      we’re in the middle of the 19th round , right now .
      Joel drafted out of the 14th spot , and , I the 10th .
      this “other” guy has the 11th draft spot and has been know to
      snipe a guy right out from under you …. usually when you’re paying
      close attention .

      • @chata, Sounds like a fun mock, with some good bloaks.

        yeah your pitching isnt so great, but it’s a mock – all about finding value and seeing what your tendencies are.

  21. TheNewGuy says:

    @Albert Lang:

    Ok I see your reasoning, thanks man.

    Will see how lucky im feeling come our keeper deadline!

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      @TheNewGuy, Testing the comments on this post…

  22. EliManningAids says:

    I’d like to hear your thoughts (and others) on when folks become so overrated they are underrated. For instance, I wouldn’t touch Melky, Francouer, Hellickson, Dee Gordon, Fister, etc etc with a ten foot pole based on last year. The thing is, neither would my leaguemates since we are all pretty sophisticated ‘ballers (I don’t add fantasy before that, bc that would be geigh).

    I’m pretty sharp on the bouncebacks and breakouts, but tend to miss on these folks who we all know won’t repeat, but should still be owned at some point because even at 80% of their value from their previous year they need to be drafted.

    • @EliManningAids, I think the rule of thumb is to look at your 80% projections or so and see where similar players go in drafts, and that’s when you snipe them.

      Melky wont have the power he did last year, but could he go 10-20? absolutely and probably score a good bit of runs.

      It’s hard to trust the steals with Francoeur, but his manager sure seems to like to run him, so those could be there.

      Hellickson is due for a big regression, but most people factor that into their rankings (I know both Grey and I do), so see where folks you trust rank that kind of player.

      Gordon is just a lottery chip for late in drafts, could get 5 steals and bat .220, could bat .260 with 50 steals, no real way of knowing.

      Fister better pray that Miggy isnt playing third….

      Does that help?

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