This is the SAGNOF Special “broken record edition” where I repeat things I’ve touched on in the past. Danny Santana bad. Rajai Davis good. But let’s start with: sell Steven Souza. Why? So many reasons, but the most important are his 37% K rate and 35.7% HR/FB. The K rate is bound to come down some, but how much? 32-35% might still be too high for Souza to have great value going forward, once the HR/FB rate regresses. To put that HR/FB rate in perspective, last year’s leader among qualified batters was Jose Abreu, with 26.9%. Nelson Cruz‘s HR/FB rate was “only” 20.4% last year. So on the one hand you can be very successful with a much lower HR/FB rate, on the other hand if Souza’s HR/FB rate were halved and we assume that half of his home runs were instead FB outs, his AVG drops from .238 to .206. While he can in fact have value with such a low AVG, the problem is, will the Rays send him down? To look at it another way, think of how low his average might be during a 3-4 week home run drought. So who to trade for? If you want a similar type player maybe Charlie Blackmon or Gregory Polanco. If you need some pitching maybe Jake Arrieta. In any case, I’m trying to tell you to trade him as a player batting .238 with 10 home runs and 7 stolen bases, because that’s what he’s done. So if you trade him make sure you get plenty in return because you are assuming the risk that he can lower his K% down to 32%-ish while maintaining a HR/FB of above 20%, because if he can do those things he can be pretty good. But I don’t think his value will ever be higher than it is right now.
Earlier I told you to be wary of Danny Santana. Good news if you hung onto him because he’s managed to raise his AVG 16 points since that time. But facts can mislead. That’s why I should also point out he raised his AVG from .210 to a still putrid .226. On April 27th I was asked by a commenter going by the handle “Jack” if he should “Drop D. Santana for Kipnis, a no brainer, right?” Me: “I do think you’d have to drop Santana for Kipnis, yes.” Jason Kipnis has hit about .400 since then. Guess I should have told him to a buy a lottery ticket too. It’s time for me to just go ahead and say that you don’t need to own Danny Santana anymore. He’s been dropped to 9th in the order and for a player that only does just enough to be worth owning, the difference between 1st and 9th is make or break. And I doubt he’ll be moved back to 1st this year. It’s much more likely he’ll be moved to AAA. A player’s OBP (0.244) should probably not be 67 points below his BABIP (.311). That’s a convoluted way of saying the hits are falling at a normal rate when he does make contact but he simply doesn’t make enough of it and that’s led to a K:BB ratio (45:2) that would make Curt Schilling proud… if he were doing it as a pitcher. My only regret is I didn’t warn you in the preseason, because the signs were there. The Monday update on his RCL (Razzball Commenter League) ownership tells me that most of you have come to the same conclusion because his ownership is down to 45%. I doubt he’s going to hit higher than .260 going forward and his speed is only mediocre so you can do better. He’s a streaming option at best.
I keep seeing Rajai Davis available in RCLs. It seems people like to use him for a game or three then discard him. I’m telling you that with 12 stolen bases on the year, almost all of which have come in games he’s started (as opposed to as a pinch runner), he’s worth holding onto. Sure it’s frustrating when it’s Monday or Thursday and you want to send him packing for someone playing that day. I’m telling you that you probably shouldn’t. I’m certain there is at least one team in every RCL that would be better off if they hung on to him. Because he’s only playing part time you not only got most of those 12 stolen bases from Davis, you also got the stats from whoever you are platooning him with on your roster on the days he doesn’t start.
SAGNOF (Steals Ain’t Got No Face) Speed recommendations: This week I’ve got advice instead of new recommendations. Use our handy tool to identify good stolen base matchups, it’s also available under the Tools pull down menu. Keep informed on some of the speedster prospects like Jose Peraza, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Correa (in shallower leagues where he’s not already owned) as their time may be coming soon.
Time for some next in line for Saves talk: I’ve seen the Indians’ Zach McAllister owned a lot more recently, I’m fine with that but I don’t think Cody Allen his about to be yanked from his role. Allen’s last 30 days stat line is respectable: 13 IP, 19:6 K:BB, ERA 2.77, WHIP 1.00. His job security as fine, only slightly less than it would be had he not been so bad earlier in the year. Plus I’m not certain if it’s McAllister or Bryan Shaw that would be the closer if they did replace Allen. Anyone know? Much like the story of Rajai Davis, Sergio Romo is a player that I’ve seen bounce around a lot in RCLs. He’s worth holding onto, particularly because Santiago Casilla had a very bad outing yesterday.
SAGNOF (Saves Ain’t Got No Face) recommendations: No one seems on the verge of saves right now but I do think that Carson Smith (still “only” 85% owned) and Sergio Romo (48%) should be held on to. You also may want to keep your eyes on Carter Capps of the Miami Marlins because he’s been stellar (yet hardly used) with a 15:0 K:BB in 9.1 innings. Similarly, Hunter Strickland has been tearing it up for the San Francisco Giants and he’s recently notched 3 Holds.
