The stolen base department is always a tough sledding affair. It is filled with guessing and presumptuous displays of picking the right guy in the right situation. Steals are very hard to come by on a regular basis currently so the steals are a “trending downward” property. So hitting on one SAGNOF flyer for the week or via the waiver wire for immediate returns is just a hard thing to predict. At best, the wire fellas will net you one steal a week, and that is being generous. So looking at the trends “against teams, by teams that steal” is the best model for the stolen base business. Upcoming matchups for the week are the way to go if you wanna guess, but guess with style and maybe a better idea of who is stealing on who and how often. Taking not only advantage of a catcher skill set but a team skill set for their propensity to give of the thievery. So here is the SAGNOF report for this week with a scheduler forecaster for the 10-most frequent base stealing teams and their schedule for the week…
| Team | SB’s Against | Week’s opponents (Team Steals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mets | 16 | vs. Nationals (18) , @Braves (9) |
| White Sox | 14 | @Athletics (3) , vs. Astros (8) |
| Rockies | 12 | @Pirates (8) , vs. Cubs (4) |
| Padres | 11 | vs. Dodgers (3) , @D-Backs (8) |
| Braves | 10 | vs. Phillies (12) , vs. Mets (3) |
| Orioles | 10 | @Tigers(8) , vs. Indians (13) |
| Reds | 10 | @Brewers (11) , @Cardinals (9) |
| Giants | 10 | @D-Backs (8) , @Angels (8) |
| Rays | 10 | vs. Rangers (4) , vs. Twins (8) |
| Royals | 9 | @Blue Jays (8) , @Tigers (8) |
- Chart is showing that the Mets and their catcher injuries are a team that is getting run against. Michael Taylor, Ender Inciarte and Ryan Flaherty look like the plays against them.
- Take advantage of Tucker and the Reds catchers this week. Differentials on the Brew crew like Hernan Perez could get you a swipe.
- Wilson Ramos is getting the majority of thefts against him for the Rays, but facing two teams that don’t steal is a bad gamble this week.
- Loading up on Tigers for the doubleheader om Friday versus the Royals seems like a good play.
Mallex Smith – With injuries comes playing time and speed just needs opportunities. Is the starting guy there now for the Rays and with 2 steals in last 7 games played the time to jump on a Mallex (which sounds like a fun trampoline) is now.
Ian Kinsler – Returned form the DL and is going to score a ton and steal his fair share. Hitting lead-off is a great thing in that lineup.
Joey Wendle – I don’t love his fantasy skill set, but he is getting heavy at bats at second base. Counting stats and batting average may not be abundant but he got on base at a .400 clip this past week. And the Rays need to manufacture runs.
Hanley Ramirez – It is the fountain of Hanley. Looks rejuvenated and is totally stealing bases, as teams aren’t paying attention to his adequate base awareness. Already has 3 steals on the year and gets on base nearly 40% of the time.
Jake Diekman – Got the save yesterday but nothing to see here. kela was the stopper in a tie game. just interesting to see him get the chance over other guys, Martin especially. Handcuffs for me are still Martin, Jepsen, Claudio, Diekman in that order.
Bud Norris – Looks like the stop gap until the ball throwing Dutchman gets his stuff together. Short term he is the answer, long term if you wanna buy in on Holland for cheap now is the time.
Josh Hader – The comes a time when the other parts around you just aren’t as good and moving that best option to the ultimate spot is the answer that we all knew should happen anyways. Hader is the goods. Knocks down Barnes and Jeffress way out of the question I think. Albers is still the hold as the wanna control Hader’s workload for now.
