Draft day is usually the highlight of your night, granted, if there isn’t a killer Magic the Gathering tournament going down. ¬†Here at SAGNOF central, we use high tech devices (protractors) and technology (metal detectors)¬†to help you be more smarter. ¬†Smartest? ¬†Most smart? ¬†One of those. ¬†The chase for draft day steals is always a ball and rank-him affair, the top guys are the top guys because they contribute in multiple categories, not just the thievery department. ¬†But what about the guys who don’t? ¬†That, my friends, is SAGNOF. ¬†I am going to take you through a look at some of the steal-only guys and their draft day ADP’s currently to see what values exist and who is drafting what, where, and why. ¬†Because we all like a bargain, it’s why Marshall’s and T.J. Maxx exist, they are the “slight defect consumer bin” for shopping, where as these guys are the one-off for a 5×5 contribution. ¬†Get the correlation? Good. ¬†The king of the one-category right now is Billy Hamilton. ¬†Yes he will score runs, but his main contribution to your team is basically hoping he wins SB’s all by his lonesome. ¬†His current ADP across multiple formats ranges from 60th overall to about 90¬†in some obtuse cases. ¬†Neither are fantastic, and I think his value is somewhere in the middle. Yes, he is going to steal you some bases, but on the high-end, is he worth a 5-6th round draft pick in your draft? ¬†Maybe, when you consider their are a ton of misfit toys being drafted around him¬†like Todd Frazier, Mark Trumbo, and most of the back-end first tiered closers, Britton and Melancon. ¬†It’s funny that the conundrum and research says that people are drafting both ends of the S in AGNOF at about the same point on draft day. ¬†So now that you know who and where Billy Lin Miranda is being drafted, let’s see where some of the updated¬†mid-round values at steals.
Jose Peraza – I wanted to make this whole post about him and make a comparison stat-wise to basically what Dee Gordon is going to give you. ¬†Same position, same iffy expectations for their team. ¬†Now, would you rather gamble at Dee in the 5th round or Peraza in the 12th? ¬†That is the current realm on draft day. ¬†Peraza has his spot now, he will be in the lineup every single day. ¬†Be given every opportunity to either hit lead-off because Billy can’t or he is going to hit down in the order ahead of the pitcher most likely. ¬†Either way, I think it helps him. ¬†He isn’t going to give you Villar power, but should score close to 75 and steal you 50. ¬†That is basically what Dee is going to give you at a 6-7 round discount. ¬†I love Peraza more then Hamilton because unlike Billy, Jose can get himself on base. ¬†Remember, you can’t steal first.
Carlos Gomez – It is a Tale of Two Cities…”it was the best of time it was the best of time”, and both were in the grand state of Texas. ¬†The biggest question mark here is which Car-go will be showing up. ¬†The one that looked unhappy in Houston or the one who seemed to find his niche in Arlington. ¬†His splits last year post trade are pretty Jekyll and Hyde. ¬†Particularly in the OBP department. ¬†Given that he looks like a better lead-off option than Choo, he could be a draft day swoon at his current OF 40 draft status. ¬†If he gets the keys to drive the Rangers line-up, I would expect him to steal 25 easy, and his bat isn’t a slouch either. ¬†Great bargain for draft slot right now.
Keon Broxton – Keon keeps klimbing, should be what’s going down. He has basically gained a round every week over the past three¬†weeks of draft ADP research. ¬†His major problem for me is that he isn’t going to be leading off on most days. ¬†But that may help his numbers across the board and expand him form a SAGNOF darling to a 5×5 all around contributor. ¬†When he finally broke through into the Brewers line-up, which wasn’t really til basically July 1s,t he had a OBP of .395 for the ROS. ¬†Intrigue and growth is spurning the draft love.
Odubel Herrera – Villar, Betts, Goldschmidt, Trout, Segura, and Altuve. ¬†Only players plus Herrera that went 15Hr’s/25 Sb’s and had an OBP of over .350. ¬†If I was knit-picking one stat sure it would look odd but those are some sexy ass names and basically 1/3 of the first round. ¬†There is more to squeeze out of Odubel this year, as he is still young enough to develop more power. ¬†Moving down in the order is not a good thing, it’s a great thing as he stole more bases from hitting second.